Betting Maiden Races

[dav4463]

How do you approach a maiden race in general ?

Basically, I look for a price horse if I can and it usually comes from one of these factors.

1. Showed brief speed vs. same level or tougher, within a couple of lengths of the lead at the first call in their last race and then faded badly earning a low Beyer figure. This has been the type horse that have produced the boxcar payoffs most often.

2. Showed good early speed throughout vs. same or tougher in last race. Price is not as good usually, but a lot of winners fit this category.

3. Obvious best Beyers vs. weaker, many times the public backs off the Beyer horse when he has been facing a lower level. If he drifts up to 4-1 or better, he is worth a look.

4. "Second tier" Beyer figures, usually 10-20 points lower than the best horse, but has been facing tougher company.

5. A first time starter with a decent trainer/jockey combo and a couple of decent works when other horses just don't fit the above criteria that well or their prices are too low.


Best horses to bet against:

1. Top Beyer horses with no early speed

2. Horses who show good early speed and competitive Beyers, but have two or more losses at a lower level

3. Any horse with three or more losses at a lower level.

4 Below 6% jockeys



Any others to add ? I don't even look at breeding....haven't found a way to incorporate it into my maiden betting yet.

The thing I find about maiden races is it isn't all that complicated. The races are more formful than most and the prices are usually there if you search for them. The lower level claiming races at small tracks are the ones to "swing for the fences".

[Blackgold]

Look for a horse making his 2nd lifetime start and dropping in class. Especially MDN to MCL.

Look for a horse making his 2nd lifetime start, coming off a layoff and dropping in class.

In both of the above, ignore beaten lengths.

[Valuist]

1. First time basement--whatever the bottom level is on a circuit; M10000 in some, M30000 at the top level tracks. Often times horses who've already been running at the basement level and been 2nd or 3rd several times are heavier bet than the droppers.

2. Definitely key races--they point out winners that speed figures don't. I find key races to work best in Mdn and Mdn Claiming races.

[OTM Al]

In Maiden Claimers, I will always take any horse that is dropping from the non-claiming race without regard to speed figs. Number in the 4th Saturday at GP is the perfect example of this. He was the only one in the field with this criteria and went off at a stunning 8-1. I happily cashed in on him. This sort of drop I feel is equivalent to the drop from Stakes competition to the Allowance ranks.

In non-claimers, I look for horses that finished near the lead in the previous race, those going second or third out because improvement is still likely for those who have raced before. Key races are also good, though my charting of them is spotty at best. They led me to play Rating Agency, 4th at Aqu on Saturday, who finished second a few races back to a horse I really like.

For first time outs, I look at trainer stats, Tomlinson rating, and a consistant pattern of at least 8-10 workouts with no more than 10-11 days separation. Gate work a couple works before the start is a plus. If there are any big gaps or the horse doesn't have any 5f or beyond works, I will automatically pass.

Maiden races are generally my best hits and these simple rules have worked very well for me.

[Tom]

I love horses with a pace figure advantage over the field, no matter how badly it fiishes. I like it when the best pace figure is hidden in a MSW race with un-obvious early speed (5th by 3, but top pace fig is noce to find) and the drop today is nice.
HTR has a workout rating that is very postive-if I find good pace numbers, high worlout rating, and some other factor-jock change, drop down, stetch out, etc, I like the horse.

[The Skeptic]

I may sound like the old Skeptic that I am...but I couldn't resist. Brief Speed. You don't think everyone is looking for that in a Mdn race? Good luck making money. How about Pedigree? Good luck making money. How about a Speed Figure advantage? Good luck making money. Ah ha.....I know....workouts? Good luck making money. How about a drop from MSW to Mdn Clmng? Good luck making money. Okay, let's combine the best works and best Spd. Now we gotta a favorite. Let's combine the Pedigree with Spd. Now we have a co favorite. Folks, gotta do better then that!

I have to concede.....how do you handicap Mdn races was the question, right? Oopps, I screwed up. I thought he said how do make money in claiming races. That's another thread.

Sorry for raceting your time.

The Skeptic

[dav4463]

Brief speed is obviously overlooked when it only lasts one call and there is an obvious best Beyer horse getting all the money. Just a few recent examples....not redboarding, just fact.

2/1/04 TP race 2....$26.20 winner
2/28/04 Haw race 2 $116.80 winner
3/20/04 GG race 6...$46.80 winner
3/26/04 DeD race 3...$24.60 winner
3/31/04 Pen race 1.... $30.80 winner

just pulled these off the top of the stack of maiden picks I am currently compiling stats on

Race 1 at Penn on 3/31 is a perfect example

the 8 horse TSU TSU OKE broke 3rd, 4 lengths behind at first call, which was better than any other horse in the field....faded 6th, 9 lengths out at second call...then 7th , 14 lengths out , and finished 8th, 19 lengths out....His last two Beyer figures were 2 and 0 !! He paid $30.80 to win.

[The Skeptic]

“Brief speed is obviously overlooked when it only lasts one call and there is an obvious best Beyer horse getting all the money. Just a few recent examples....not redboarding, just fact”.

Reply: “OBVIOUSLY” nothing is typically obvious and obvious could be pushing it. Pretty much every reputable pundit has been preaching this for the last 5 yrs. The decline in ROI at first call over the last 5 yrs has been well documented.

Reply: “Just Fact ie examples” no disputes it happens all the time. No need to get several hundred more I see them too.

TP example. ML favorite of 1-1 finished off the board. Went off at .90. In addition top trainer top jockey.....a legitimate favorite. Though the favorite finished off the board...no flat bet positive ROI here (long run). In addition the Espd horses were only winning around 13% vs. a normalized 20%. In a tournament searching for a bomb yes. Include in a pick six - definately. But not a solid play at all - even in the exotics.

Haw example. I’m very curious here. ML 20-1, not good. Great breeding! Going back to lines.....bounce, very positive expectation here. No solid Favorite, positive. Race is somewhat of a lottery. This is a very good play. Incredibly overlooked by the public. I wouldn’t have eliminated the 2-1 favorite in the exotics but definately keyed this longshot horse with and without the favorite tri‘s. Won’t find these often. The public missed the bounce. Picking the correct paceline does predict a strong first fraction. Incredible Price on this horse. You just don’t find these much anymore. Kudos. “Brief speed is obviously overlooked when it only lasts one call and there is an obvious best Beyer horse getting all the money. Just a few recent examples....not redboarding, just fact”.

Reply: “OBVIOUSLY” nothing is obvious and that‘s really pushing it. Pretty much every reputable pundit has been preaching this for the last 5 yrs. The decline in ROI at first call over the last 5 yrs has been well documented.

Reply: “Just Fact ie examples” no disputes it happens all the time. No need to get several hundred more I see them too.

TP example. ML favorite of 1-1 finished off the board. Went off at .90. In addition top trainer top jockey.....a legitimate favorite. Though the favorite finished off the board...no flat bet positive ROI here (long run). In addition the Espd horses were only winning around 13% vs. a normalized 20%. In a tournament searching for a bomb yes. Include in a pick six - definately. But not a solid play at all - even in the exotics.

Haw example. I’m very curious here. ML 20-1, not good. Great breeding! Going back to lines.....bounce, very positive expectation here. No solid Favorite, positive. Race is somewhat of a lottery. This is a very good play. Incredibly overlooked by the public. I wouldn’t have eliminated the 2-1 favorite in the exotics but definately keyed this longshot horse with and without the favorite tri‘s. Won’t find these often. The public missed the bounce. Picking the correct paceline does predict a strong first fraction. Incredible Price on this horse. You just don’t find these much anymore. Kudos. :)

GG example. SORRY bad example. I believe the theme here was E or brief spd. The horse came from near the back of the field. Was 7th at the 1st call and 5th in the stretch and still won. I use 3 different information sources and none anticipated early but all indicated a strong close. My guess: you just accidentally included in your examples. But this horse had great works, strong/final fraction. Good play if you had em but not an Espd example. :(

Ded example. A good example. Alot of other reasons to like winner in addition to Espd. At the same time, 5 FTS some w/ good works. Some with good pedigree. A not so obvious favorite (ML 6-1) was bet down to 1.5. Very vulnerable favorite. In this race $24 to win should be considered here and in the exotics.

PENN example. Yes got a winner but against a very legit .50 favorite who finished 2nd in a normally rather predictable race. Secondly, kudos to you but very iffy whether I’d have predicted this horse to wire the field = I can think of 2 others as well. I probably would have sat on this one and let it go....but I can still see the possibility of it wiring the field.

I’m really tired so my on the spot analysis is weak. But the Hawthore example makes me sick and I’m sorry I missed it. Delta was a second good wager. The rest I’d have passed.

In summary. We can all find good exceptions to any situation. Rarely will the word “obvious” come into play but the HAW example was (win or loose). If you just won 2 of those every one hundred races you’d have made a profit. When it does come up POUNCE on it! Furthermore, I’ll concede that yes these are areas that one should start when they handicap maidens (see orig post starter) but making money is more then that. Lastly, you must do something different to win! Going with Espd at 1st call isn’t overlooked anymore. It’s very obvious (to those looking) and honestly I don’t know anyone who doesn’t look for it in every race just as every handicapper I know still looks at the Spd Figs in spite of the lack of effectivenes on ROI. What made the Haw play so valuable and potentially long term profitable... is doing something different then what others are doing. That difference appears to have been anticipating a bounce. Otherwise said, picking the right paceline. As with the Delta example there were a lot of things to like about this horse including the odds....but weighing it against the many FTS’s is difficult (not obvious) but definately a better then strong consideration at price which was offered.

Not Proofread....I think you’ll get it.








:)

[The Skeptic]

I tried to add this but I exceded my edit time.

I wanted to comment that your original post is actually very good! My only real bones which I got carried away with on are: "obvious" and "Espd being overlooked".

In addition: Unnecessary duplication which I wasn't able to fix. sorry but again, I think you'll get it. Sorry for the tuff read/duplication.

[Skanoochies]

One of my favorite maiden race stats is in the workouts. Not necessarily in times but comparisons of class that day. For instance a maiden works four furlongs and is 11 th fastest of 58 that day. Who were the other 57? If you are really familiar with a track, you can tell just by names who was working. The majority one day could probably mostly 2 and 3 year old maidens, so no big deal. BUT sometimes you find a maiden with a hidden workout which bested several older Allow. and high claimer types. These types are dynamite and pay great prices.
Trouble is it is hard to keep track of at tracks you aren`t really on top of. Just another opinion.

Good luck,

Skanoochies.:)

[Tom]

"In summary. We can all find good exceptions to any situation..."

Yes. That is when I make a bet. ;)

[dav4463]

Skeptic,

Great post, I put the GG race in there because it was a longshot hit, but it was for another reason than early speed. I wrote "brief speed" on the wrong race in that situation. When I posted, I didn't look back at all the pp's, I just followed my own notes. My mistake. I really need to track my betting on a computer rather than all those notebooks !

[Valuist]

Never underestimate how some trainers do with 2nd time starters, no matter how horrific the first time out may be.

[OTM Al]

Total agreement with Valuist. These are the most dangerous horses in a non-claiming maiden (and sometimes, though much more rarely in a claimer)

[delayjf]

I look a lot at trainer angles, for example, Bob Baffert is notorious with his hidden entries, I've found them especially profitable (at least for me) in MSW races especially when the low priced entry is owned by Pegram.