Help with Top Angles in Points System

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Greetings,

I am hoping to refine a points system I've been playing around with that is pretty well established, but I like the fact you can tweak it to fit your own style.

It's basically pick your top 8 angles and award 10 points for each angle met. Tally points, check odds, and see if betting value is in line with odds. I use BRIS data files for calculations.

The reason for 8 angles, I understand, is math for determining betting value based on a 20% takeout.

Takeout 20% + 80% payout = 100% pool size.

Fair Odds Percentage
2/5 80% (points)
3/5 70%
4/5 60%
1/1 50%
8/5 40%
2/1 30%
4/1 20%
9/1 10%

So if your horse has 40 points and is at least 8/5 that is a good bet. :confused:

Here are the angles I am using (not working too well). :ThmbDown: What should I tweak, add or remove? I do look for continuity and consider long layoffs, total starts, etc. before blindly awarding speed, and trainer points, etc.

Angles:
1. Speed Last 3
2. Speed Last
3. Class
4. Trainer Win %
4. Jockey Win %
6. Lifetime Win %
7. Win % at Distance
8. Won Last Race

Appreciate any thoughts...

[Robert Goren]

Welcome to the forum.
Too many of your 8 are interrelated. Plus they all are not equal in predicting the winner. There nothing wrong with the method, but you need better values for your points. When I first started betting the horses 49 years ago, there were quite a few systems like this being used. I seem to remember using something similar myself. There was a lot of guess work in coming up the numbers back then. Today with a data base or numbers from Dave's e-book, you can come up with better values for your factors. It maybe possible to get it to profitability, but be prepared to do a lot of work and testing to get there. good luck.

[Maximillion]

Greetings,

I am hoping to refine a points system I've been playing around with that is pretty well established, but I like the fact you can tweak it to fit your own style.

It's basically pick your top 8 angles and award 10 points for each angle met. Tally points, check odds, and see if betting value is in line with odds. I use BRIS data files for calculations.

The reason for 8 angles, I understand, is math for determining betting value based on a 20% takeout.

Takeout 20% + 80% payout = 100% pool size.

Fair Odds Percentage
2/5 80% (points)
3/5 70%
4/5 60%
1/1 50%
8/5 40%
2/1 30%
4/1 20%
9/1 10%

So if your horse has 40 points and is at least 8/5 that is a good bet. :confused:

Here are the angles I am using (not working too well). :ThmbDown: What should I tweak, add or remove? I do look for continuity and consider long layoffs, total starts, etc. before blindly awarding speed, and trainer points, etc.

Angles:
1. Speed Last 3
2. Speed Last
3. Class
4. Trainer Win %
4. Jockey Win %
6. Lifetime Win %
7. Win % at Distance
8. Won Last Race

Appreciate any thoughts...

I like your first 2 angles best and would suggest you start there.

[thaskalos]

1.) Best speed rating in last 2.

2.) Second-best speed rating in entire body.

3.) Closest at the stretch call in the last 2.

4.) Class level of most recent race.

5.) Class level of most recent "sharp" race (win, or less than a length behind at the finish).

6.) Number of wins and second-place finishes in last 10 races.

[cashmachine]

1.) Best speed rating in last 2.

2.) Second-best speed rating in entire body.

3.) Closest at the stretch call in the last 2.

4.) Class level of most recent race.

5.) Class level of most recent "sharp" race (win, or less than a length behind at the finish).

6.) Number of wins and second-place finishes in last 10 races.

I would modify (3) and (6) to somehow incorporate average class of those races. How it can be done?

[thaskalos]

I would modify (3) and (6) to somehow incorporate average class of those races. How it can be done?
In my opinion, these 6 angles are well-balanced without need for further modification.

2 angles deal with speed, 2 with class, and two with form/condition.

[pondman]

So if your horse has 40 points and is at least 8/5 that is a good bet. :confused:


Bump that up to 5-1 and see how you do. With those odds it goes nowhere. Learn to pass and forget the nonsense about playing every race. In some cases, I want to see just a win. The whole farm can be bet on 1 win-- nothing else.

[Some_One]

You're going to have a lot of chalk there, and nothing that has not been looked at for at least 40 years now. Stop now while you have the chance.

[cashmachine]

You're going to have a lot of chalk there, and nothing that has not been looked at for at least 40 years now. Stop now while you have the chance.

Which approach would you suggest then?

[Johnny V]

You mentioned the angles approach you are using is not working to well. If you are assigning 10 points to each that qualifies then you are placing the same emphasis on each which you may want to look at a little different. The jockey % for example is not worth the same value as the speed. You may want to experiment with the weighting of the different angles giving more value to the speed and class and so on. If you really want to continue with this approach I would give that a try.

[Exotic1]

Which approach would you suggest then?

Just my opinion and this is absolutely not meant to characterize anyone else trying to help you.

Thask is a winner (along with a few others). Take what he says and put it in a vault.

[DeltaLover]

Greetings,

I am hoping to refine a points system I've been playing around with that is pretty well established, but I like the fact you can tweak it to fit your own style.

It's basically pick your top 8 angles and award 10 points for each angle met. Tally points, check odds, and see if betting value is in line with odds. I use BRIS data files for calculations.

The reason for 8 angles, I understand, is math for determining betting value based on a 20% takeout.

Takeout 20% + 80% payout = 100% pool size.

Fair Odds Percentage
2/5 80% (points)
3/5 70%
4/5 60%
1/1 50%
8/5 40%
2/1 30%
4/1 20%
9/1 10%

So if your horse has 40 points and is at least 8/5 that is a good bet. :confused:

Here are the angles I am using (not working too well). :ThmbDown: What should I tweak, add or remove? I do look for continuity and consider long layoffs, total starts, etc. before blindly awarding speed, and trainer points, etc.

Angles:
1. Speed Last 3
2. Speed Last
3. Class
4. Trainer Win %
4. Jockey Win %
6. Lifetime Win %
7. Win % at Distance
8. Won Last Race

Appreciate any thoughts...


IMHO what you describe here is very similar to what the crowd is doing and although you will end up picking some winners they will never be enough to put you in the black.

You clearly need a different approach...

[ezpace]

1.) Best speed rating in last 2.

2.) Second-best speed rating in entire body.

3.) Closest at the stretch call in the last 2.

4.) Class level of most recent race.

5.) Class level of most recent "sharp" race (win, or less than a length behind at the finish).

6.) Number of wins and second-place finishes in last 10 races.
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Good Ones
1 addition turf 2nd race back stretch call
to finish position of last race ,largest move positon and or lengths
best to ya

[upthecreek]

Greetings,

I am hoping to refine a points system I've been playing around with that is pretty well established, but I like the fact you can tweak it to fit your own style.

It's basically pick your top 8 angles and award 10 points for each angle met. Tally points, check odds, and see if betting value is in line with odds. I use BRIS data files for calculations.

The reason for 8 angles, I understand, is math for determining betting value based on a 20% takeout.

Takeout 20% + 80% payout = 100% pool size.

Fair Odds Percentage
2/5 80% (points)
3/5 70%
4/5 60%
1/1 50%
8/5 40%
2/1 30%
4/1 20%
9/1 10%

So if your horse has 40 points and is at least 8/5 that is a good bet. :confused:

Here are the angles I am using (not working too well). :ThmbDown: What should I tweak, add or remove? I do look for continuity and consider long layoffs, total starts, etc. before blindly awarding speed, and trainer points, etc.

Angles:
1. Speed Last 3
2. Speed Last
3. Class
4. Trainer Win %
4. Jockey Win %
6. Lifetime Win %
7. Win % at Distance
8. Won Last Race

Appreciate any thoughts...

You could check over at Betmix-they have alot of factors they consider important You may find some you like

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

OK, I've just got caught up and appreciate the feedback. I think it is apparent this approach will not distinguish me from the crowd as the crowd is pretty much doing the same things. I do think adjusting the weights to not be uniform and including form/fitness and class expansion angles makes a lot of sense.

I'm sure can learn a great deal from many here. Thanks again.

[Dave Schwartz]

One issue I see here is that there is no RELATIVE value component.

Taking your example of more than 40 points for a 40-point horse:

Some fields will (I believe) have less points than others. (Perhaps not, as I did not look closely at the factors.)

Another issue is that the more obvious that 8/5 horse becomes the more likely you will ultimately get 4/5 instead of 8/5.

IOW, if he gets 70 points and is 8/5 he probably won't be anywhere near 8/5 in the winner's circle, although he may well be when the gate opens.

[fmolf]

Best speed at this exact distance has gotten me some nice winners. As well as best record at this track aka as horse for course....You also might try some of Cramers angles' class drop/jock switch...class drop/surface switch...class drop/track change to name a few... There are so many variations and subsets and permutations of your basic handicapping angles that it must be very hard to assign %'s to them....As handicappers we are basically doing the same thing every race we look at without assigning a ridgid point total to these angles but rather weighting them as each horse ranks in relation to the other horses and the attributes needed to win each race.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

1.) Best speed rating in last 2.

2.) Second-best speed rating in entire body.

3.) Closest at the stretch call in the last 2.

4.) Class level of most recent race.

5.) Class level of most recent "sharp" race (win, or less than a length behind at the finish).

6.) Number of wins and second-place finishes in last 10 races.

I want to be sure I am understanding...a little foggy this morning
2.) Second-best speed rating in entire body.
are you saying avg. all PP speed ratings available but don't pick the highest rather consider the second highest? If so, curious about this :confused: .
3.) Closest at the stretch call in the last 2.
are you saying look at position at stretch call for the leader or the horse closest to the leader?

Thanks for clarification.

[thaskalos]

I want to be sure I am understanding...a little foggy this morning
2.) Second-best speed rating in entire body.
are you saying avg. all PP speed ratings available but don't pick the highest rather consider the second highest? If so, curious about this :confused: .
3.) Closest at the stretch call in the last 2.
are you saying look at position at stretch call for the leader or the horse closest to the leader?

Thanks for clarification.
I'd be happy to clarify...and I apologize for any confusion:

2.) No. I mean scan the speed-figure column of the horses...and pick, not the best one -- but the second-best one. The theory being that many horses are capable of a big figure once...when the planets align properly. It takes a better horse to do it TWICE.

3.) I am looking at the position of the given horse relative to the leader -- length-wise, not just position-wise. It is important, IMO, that a horse possess the ability to be close at the stretch call in at least some of its races. I realized this many years ago...when I noticed the desperation that washed over me whenever I found my selection languishing well-behind the field at the stretch call.

[dav4463]

Add two best speed figures in last three races....rank horses 1-4, give all others a 6

Rank top 4 jockeys...assign 1-4, give others a 6

Rank top 4 early speed horses (2nd and 3rd call position)....rank top 4, assign others a 6

add rankings together

top three lowest scoring horses are your contenders.....it's up to you to decide which one or two to bet.



OH, HERE IS THE KEY TO THE METHOD:


AFTER you do these rankings......TOSS the top THREE LAST RACE SPEED FIGURE HORSES.....this is a longshot method. Bet to win/place or use in exactas with top 3 figure horses that you eliminated.

[Dave Schwartz]

Thaskalos' angles are supported by my research in Percentages and Probabilities as well.

:ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

Thaskalos' angles are supported by my research in Percentages and Probabilities as well.

:ThmbUp:

Was there ever any doubt? :)

I decided to start sharing some of my most closely-guarded "secrets", Dave...to dispel TLG's notion that I was the most overrated poster of this site.

[cashmachine]

I decided to start sharing some of my most closely-guarded "secrets"

Thank you! I have a question: do you require that all these conditions were true simultaneously?