Help with Formulas

[TRM]

If you know your win% and your avg mutuel, how would you calculate your worst case scenario losing streak?

Also, when keeping records for win%, how do you guys/gals incorporate multiple win bets?

I am including each wager as a separate betting entry in my totals, as far as number of Bets vs # of winners, but is there another way (easier) to track multiple win bets? I guess keeping track of both, so I can determine if I am doing better at single win bets vs. multiple bets, is the way to go. However, I'm not sure if this is correct as your win % is tied directly the number of bets placed vs winning horses. I may be talking in circles, but this is something that has been "bugging" me lately, and I just want to make sure my recordkeeping practices are correct.

All suggestions appreciated,

Thanks,

TRM

[Red Knave]

Originally posted by TRM
If you know your win% and your avg mutuel, how would you calculate your worst case scenario losing streak?

I read, long ago, that a simple method was to take your current longest losing streak and triple it. This is assuming you have a relatively small sample, say, less than 10,000 races, but still big enough to have had at least one real bad run.

Also, when keeping records for win%, how do you guys/gals incorporate multiple win bets?
Multi-race bets are single bets in my records. I record all bets individually. That way I can generate a win% on each type independently or in combinations.

FWIW

[hdcper]

TRM,

If you know your win% and your avg mutuel, how would you calculate your worst case scenario losing streak?

Your losing streak has nothing to do with your average mutual, only you win %. However, like all of us are aware, the average mutual determines whether we are profitable or not.

Anyway without knowing your exact win percentage, I can only give you a method for calculating it yourself. Say your win percentage is 25%, thus your likelihood of losing the wager is 75% (100% minus 25%).

To determine say losing 3 of these type of wagers in a row, you would multiply .75 times .75 times .75 = .4219 (or 42.19%). This method can be used to determine any size losing streak and can easily be structured in an Excel spreadsheet to quickly calculate it for various losing streaks for any win percentage.

For example, using the win percentage of 25%, losing 8 in a row is approximately 10%, losing 11 in a row 4.22% and 16 in a row roughly 1% of the time (the 90, 95 and 99% confidence levels).

If you have Excel, I would be glad to send you a very simple spreadsheet that you could input your win percentage and see the type of losing streaks you can expect.

Hope this all makes sense,

Bill

[Big Bill]

Bill,

You wrote to TRM:

"If you have Excel, I would be glad to send you a very simple spreadsheet that you could input your win percentage and see the type of losing streaks you can expect."

I would appreciate receiving the spreadsheet as well. Thanks in advance. My e-mail address is: bwb900@cox.net

Big Bill

[plainolebill]

Originally posted by Big Bill
Bill,

You wrote to TRM:

"If you have Excel, I would be glad to send you a very simple spreadsheet that you could input your win percentage and see the type of losing streaks you can expect."

I would appreciate receiving the spreadsheet as well. Thanks in advance. My e-mail address is: bwb900@cox.net

Big Bill

Me too:

plainolebill@comcast.net

Thanks

[TRM]

Thanks hdcper. I would appreciate the spreadsheet. I sent you a PM.

One question about the calc on the losing streak. I'm assuming that's what you can expect from a 100 race sample? So basically somewhere in each 100 race subset you can expect to lose X number of wagers in a row, if your win % is 25% etc.....

Thanks,

TRM

[hdcper]

TRM and Bills,

Emails sent, let me know if you don't get them.

Bill