Getting The Distance...

[Smarty Cide]

What horses do you guys have absolute no concerns about 'getting the distance' come derby day....

[raybo]

What is your definition of "getting the distance"? Lots of horses can run the distance, but can they contend at the distance. Basically, I like any horse who has run a 2 turn race of over a mile, against an honest pace, not overly fast or slow, and finished strong compared to the majority of the field, and had a comfortable run out after that finish.

[Smarty Cide]

well yeah i mean contend at the distance, not whether they will pass out or not before getting there...

[Robert Fischer]

Hoppertunity seems like a good candidate to me.

He should be able to to settle mid pack or so, and he finishes with late energy. His style kind of protects him from either a fast or slow pace.

Much depends on the pace with getting the distance. Palace Malice won the Belmont, but he was used up in the Derby because of the hot pace.

[Cratos]

What horses do you guys have absolute no concerns about 'getting the distance' come derby day....

That is a good question, but I think an answer will be better given after the next round of Derby preps.

[raybo]

That is a good question, but I think an answer will be better given after the next round of Derby preps.

I agree, that's why I didn't offer any specific horses. I have some thoughts but will wait until at least after the Wood and SA Derby.

I like Robert's response, the horse should be able to settle behind the leaders and finish strong, regardless of the finish position. I am not particularly impressed with early speed for the preps, although there have been a couple such horses in the recent past that caught my attention running early. But, generally, with the field size in the Derby, there are several early horses and they don't win often enough for me to give early speed much emphasis. I much prefer a horse who runs 3 or more lengths off the pace in the preps and has a one-run strong close, in the stretch, or a two-run close starting a bit early to improve position and coming again, even stronger, late. One-run closers that start the run before the stretch and sustain it, at 1 1/8m or less, probably won't be able to do that at 1 1/4m. Either come once late, or come twice starting earlier.

[letswastemoney]

Predicting a horse's early position in the Derby is not as easy as looking at the prep races. I'll Have Another spent his two prep races in second early. In the Derby, he broke eigth, settled into fourth, and barely caught Bodemeister.

Mine That Bird showed blazing early speed in his prep races.

I have no problem picking a speed horse, simply because it's inconclusive whether that means they will be burned up by the pace. No one knows what will happen once they break, so it's better to concentrate on just picking a talented horse.

[mostpost]

Turningforhome posted this in the California Chrome thread. I think it is also relevant here.

Registered User


Looking at CC's pedigree it is a Rassmussen factor bonanza with Numbered Account. Look at the relationship between Dance Number and Polish Numbers. Love the tail line to Princess Ribot meaning direct decedent of Ribot and Princequillo (X Factor Large Heart) . The horse has the pedigree of quality to be a real freak that can run all day. http://www.pedigreequery.com/california+chrome

California Chrome is the horse I think can run and win at any distance. Derby, Preakness or Belmont.

Now I just have to find out what a Rasmussen factor bonanza is.

[turninforhome10]

Turningforhome posted this in the California Chrome thread. I think it is also relevant here.

Registered User


Looking at CC's pedigree it is a Rassmussen factor bonanza with Numbered Account. Look at the relationship between Dance Number and Polish Numbers. Love the tail line to Princess Ribot meaning direct decedent of Ribot and Princequillo (X Factor Large Heart) . The horse has the pedigree of quality to be a real freak that can run all day. http://www.pedigreequery.com/california+chrome

California Chrome is the horse I think can run and win at any distance. Derby, Preakness or Belmont.

Now I just have to find out what a Rasmussen factor bonanza is.

Go to link scroll to page 249 and your questions are answered.http://books.google.com/books?id=S36O25M_6C0C&pg=PA323&lpg=PA323&dq=Rasmussen+factor&source=bl&ots=-sxmLD6EqD&sig=fvcbvakYR-mNTGRIugVdi42TCh8&hl=en&sa=X&ei=qIw8U5-cOfKisQS4hIDoDg&ved=0CGAQ6AEwCTgK#v=onepage&q=Rasmussen%20factor&f=false
I highly endorse this book for a great understanding of modern theories.

[tanner12oz]

Anyone have dosage numbers yet?

[turninforhome10]

Anyone have dosage numbers yet?
See his thread http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1612383&postcount=37

[Tom]

Anyone have dosage numbers yet?


http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2014/2014_triple_crown_trail.htm

[bgbootha]

Predicting a horse's early position in the Derby is not as easy as looking at the prep races. I'll Have Another spent his two prep races in second early. In the Derby, he broke eigth, settled into fourth, and barely caught Bodemeister.

Mine That Bird showed blazing early speed in his prep races.

I have no problem picking a speed horse, simply because it's inconclusive whether that means they will be burned up by the pace. No one knows what will happen once they break, so it's better to concentrate on just picking a talented horse.

Yeah but this is also a matter of math. A horse that likes to be in that 2-3 range in a 10 horse field, will more than likely be in that 4-6 range in a 20 horse field. You take into account the pace of the early starters and those horses who know they have to be near the front to have a prayer and tha t2-3 horse finds himself sitting 6-8 pretty quick and normal.

[raybo]

Yeah but this is also a matter of math. A horse that likes to be in that 2-3 range in a 10 horse field, will more than likely be in that 4-6 range in a 20 horse field. You take into account the pace of the early starters and those horses who know they have to be near the front to have a prayer and tha t2-3 horse finds himself sitting 6-8 pretty quick and normal.

I think that's pretty much what he was saying, the large Derby field size changes everything. If you like a horse because it displayed early speed and position in the preps, you're likely to be disappointed in the Derby, either because the pace doesn't develop and the early horses are disadvantaged, or the pace is highly contested leading to pace meltdown and again the earlies are disadvantaged. Even a presser has problems because he may end up in his own pace battle trying to get good position directly behind the leaders. On the other end of the spectrum, the closer can easily find himself 20-30 lengths behind the leaders and either must make more than one run, or make a huge late, extended run.

This race is unlike any other race a horse is likely to face, in its lifetime. And at only 3 years old? That's a very big deal!!