no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the KY Derby without racing as a 2yo

[Smarty Cide]

what contenders would have to break this rule to win the derby?

[cj]

Constitution is one.

I'll say this, the game has changed rapidly. A lot of these time tested rules have flown out the window in the past decade.

[Robert Fischer]

Apollo was 84-1, and before him no horse had won the KY Derby without racing as a 2yo.

[horses4courses]

It's the grand daddy of Derby trends - 132 years.
Hard to deny that it affects a horse's foundation.

Rest assured, though.
This trend will be put to bed some day.
Probably before we have a TC winner, too.

[horses4courses]

before him no horse had won the KY Derby without racing as a 2yo.

That would be all seven of them? ;)

[Robert Fischer]

Curlin is a neat example.
I think he drew the 2 post, and Sedgefield was the 1 post on the rail.

The inside can be tough in the derby.

The rail kind of opened up and Sedgefield ended up getting a really nice pocket to run in(which allowed Sedgefield to overachieve and finish 5th even though the public had him about 60-1).
Albarado let Curlin break naturally and settle into stride(and get shuffled back a little) rather than be a little more aggressive and follow Sedgefield into that nice pocket trip.

That was the biggest difference for Curlin, in being able to tackle Hard Spun in the Derby.
Of course you had Street Sense get a dream trip with Borel starting 20 lengths back and riding the rail with perfect timing, so even if Curlin had been given a chance to get Hard Spun, he'd still have another 2+ lengths to fend off Street Sense.

That and the "has not run as a 2yo curse"! ;)

[PhantomOnTour]

Bodemeister came very close to breaking the rule two years ago, and almost ran what would have been one of the greatest Derby winning performances ever, in my opinion.

But, nonetheless, he didn't win, and I will not bet a non raced 2yr old in the Derby until another one wins it.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

So which one of the stats guys can put this in proper perspective for us? One horse in 139 runnings that didn't run as a 2YO seems pretty significant, until we factor in how many horses have started in the Derby that didn't have a 2YO campaign? Maybe 20 (or about 1%) in 139 years?

Late bloomers rarely mature fast enough to make it to CD on the first Saturday of May, so I think this stat isn't as strong as it first appears.

FWIW worth, I've got $6 on Constitution in the last Derby future pool - not because I think he's a great bet or great value - but because I thought he'd run well in the FLA Derby, and it once again looks like a year where a 98 Beyer can win the race....

[TMQ]

So which one of the stats guys can put this in proper perspective for us? One horse in 139 runnings that didn't run as a 2YO seems pretty significant, until we factor in how many horses have started in the Derby that didn't have a 2YO campaign? Maybe 20 (or about 1%) in 139 years?

Late bloomers rarely mature fast enough to make it to CD on the first Saturday of May, so I think this stat isn't as strong as it first appears.

FWIW worth, I've got $6 on Constitution in the last Derby future pool - not because I think he's a great bet or great value - but because I thought he'd run well in the FLA Derby, and it once again looks like a year where a 98 Beyer can win the race....
58 horses have tried

[letswastemoney]

If a horse is going to do it, it's going to be a speed horse, not one that has to overcome traffic. Social Inclusion has a shot if he gets in.

[burnsy]

All I can say is I agree with what others are on to.........58 is not many in 140 years and the percentage will rise with the trends others already pointed out. If I had to guess I would bet its broke within 5 years. Big Brown raced once on the grass at 2....won the derby 4th time out. It could happen this year. Two horses are looking good...one for sure and if the other one runs well Saturday, he's in too. I can't say I would never bet against it, crap like that is meant to be broken and the trend is pointing that way.

[Robert Fischer]

58 horses have tried

Shortcut = if 58 have tried, and we say the average field size was 15, and each race was comprised 15 equal horses(6.7% chance for each) we would expect to see about 4 winners. However it would not be statistically improbable to see 58 consecutive losses.


In order to do it right, we'd need to know the odds of each of those 58 horses and have some motivation to calculate it.

[cj]

Didn't Fusaichi Pegasus start only a few weeks before turning three as well?

[Striker]

Didn't Fusaichi Pegasus start only a few weeks before turning three as well?
Yes, December 11th. Add Bayern and Social Inclusion to this years list if they make it there.

[Striker]

Straight from a Jon White article--


Going back to 1956, horses unraced at 2 are 0 for 50 in the Kentucky Derby. During that time, the only horses to even place or show were Agitate, who finished third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; and Bodemeister, second in 2012).

[burnsy]

Yes, December 11th. Add Bayern and Social Inclusion to this years list if they make it there.

I forgot about Bayern and he's looked good too so there's possibly 3 going. If Social Inclusion and Bayern make it and (Constitution). All three look like real talent too.......its going happen, even if its not this year.......soon.

[classhandicapper]

I've always thought that the thing that makes it so difficult is the lack of seasoning some of the horses have.

The Derby has a loud crowd, big field, there are a lot of tough trips, and you have to be fit enough to get 10F under pressure. Any of those things can derail a good but unseasoned horse.

Many in the sample have probably never raced behind horses, between horses, from well off the pace, got dirt kicked in their face, against an extreme pace etc... Even if they have, it takes a good bottom to get 10F. With only few starts, it's probably hard to have a horse ready for the demands of a hyper competitive 10F dirt race even if the horse will eventually be able to handle it.

[cj]

Another thing to consider is that in the past, graded stakes earnings at two counted and probably kept some horses out of the race that hadn't started at two. That is going to change going forward. Two year old racing doesn't mean much at all as far as qualifying for the Derby.

[aaron]

One more thing to consider is that many of the 3 yr olds have no seasoning or bottom. This,in my opinion would make it easier for a horse who has not raced at 2 to have an better chance,even though it would still be a difficult task.

[TMQ]

The reason most un raced 2 year olds lose is they are usually born much later then the majority of the horses. Social Inclusion and Bayern were both born late. You are asking a lot of a 3yr old who is 3-5 months younger then most the field..... :eek: