break maiden in Sept or Later

[sbcaris]

To all: I am new here and the post that follows is interesting for the Derby handicappers angle:

In the last 16 years almost all Derby winners broke their maiden in Sept or later: The only exceptions that come to mind are I'LL Have Another and Street Sense and Mine That Bird. So, thats 13 of the last 16 Derby winners that broke their maiden in Sept or later. (that's 81% winners in the last 16 years).

[horses4courses]

Don't get too preoccupied with angles when handicapping the Derby.
For every angle out there, there are ten more that could apply to any given horse regardless of whether it wins, or loses.

Dosage was all the rage until Strike The Gold came along.
Angle after angle has looked solid, but come unstuck eventually.

The most widely quoted one in recent times is "no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the KY Derby without racing as a 2yo". That's a pretty solid statistic, and shows that horses who begin their racing careers at age 3 can be at a disadvantage due to a lack of experience, or foundation.
Will a horse ever come along to break this trend?
I think so - it just takes the right horse under the right circumstances.

That being said, there aren't too many angles around that are as tried and true as that one.
Hard to deny over 130 years of trending.

The vast majority of other angles?
Not really worth your time, or efforts.

Narrow your choices down by using your normal handicapping criteria.
Pay attention to workouts leading up to the race, and the physical condition of your favorites a short time before the race. I don't look for fast workouts necessarily, just the physical well-being of a horse who appears to run well over the Churchill surface. You won't be able to tell if a horse really likes it until he is racing over it, but sometimes it is easy to spot a horse who dislikes the track in the days before the race. Useful information on horses that will run better in the future at another track.

The only percentage angle I pay attention to?
Around 95% of horses good enough to get in the gate for the Derby, don't win the race. ;)

Best of luck to you!
H4C

[lamboguy]

i like this angle a lot. the reason why is that when a horse starts early and wins, they tend to be in some very weak stake races with small fields or they are waiting to long between races. you can't keep young horses in the stall. the thing that has never changed in my world is when you come out of a bad race, you tend to run worse the next time your run.

[sbcaris]

Horses4Courses: Everyone has differing opinions on angles but the stats either support the angle or refute the angle. Since 13 of the last 16 Derby winners support the angle one must look at the percent of starters in the Derby that break their maiden in Sept or Later. Over the last 16 years there were approximately 55% of the starters in the Derby who broke their maiden in Sept or later. However, since 81% of the winners fit this angle the impact value is 1.47. These types are winning the roses 47% more often than statistical expectation. Now that doesn't necessarily mean that your Derby winner this year will have broken his maiden in Sept or later but the probability is around 81% that he will fit this angle.

I believe the above is part of a general trend over the last two decades where trainers and owners are purposely keeping their good horses away from the races until at least August and then they break their maidens most often in Sept or Oct or even later. The landscape of training has changed immensely and its a far cry from the days when the good ones made their first starts at Monmouth in June or July or Saratoga in August or Belmont Park in May or June. Back in the 70s almost all Derby winners broke their maidens before Sept. I believe Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Bold Forbes, Spectacular Bid, Foolish Pleasure, etc were in this group. Those days are gone.

Its just one angle, but it has worked in 13 of the last 16 years and thats good enough for me. Does that mean I will not wager on a horse that broke its maiden in August or July? Not necessarily, but I do consider the above to be an angle that will put you in the right direction.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I like the angle, but I prefer the first-start angle...any horse that makes his first start before July is an automatic pitch in the Derby. Of course, this usually only narrows the field down by a few horses.

Precocious 2-yr-olds simply don't turn into Derby winners in the modern era.