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Ray2000
04-01-2014, 12:39 PM
The recent ink about J Morrill made me take a look at my Driver Stats
THESE ARE NOT official numbers, only the races I use are in the data.

I am not implying anything, I just found it interesting where JM ranks in ROI
I would love to see the Official numbers if anyone has them.

Drivers with > 1000 starts in 2013 and at least a 15% Win percentage

Name ROI Win% UDR
Hensley, Ed 1.032 19.5% 0.312
Fisher, Ray Jr 1.010 18.2% 0.307
Henry, Trevor 0.984 21.8% 0.339
Merton, Gregory 0.971 19.7% 0.329
Palone, Dave 0.850 24.1% 0.363
Buter, Tyler 0.848 17.4% 0.300
Davis, Billy J 0.836 15.0% 0.265
Mcnair, Douglas 0.827 16.0% 0.276
Waples, Randall 0.823 15.2% 0.274
Allard, Simon 0.810 16.5% 0.280
Noble, Dan 0.804 15.6% 0.271
Stahl, Ryan 0.797 15.9% 0.280
Gingras, Yannic 0.794 19.8% 0.323
Miller, David S 0.794 15.5% 0.279
Zeron, Scott R 0.790 16.4% 0.282
Hennessey, Wall 0.783 17.8% 0.304
Sears, Brian 0.781 18.4% 0.309
Manzi, Cat 0.777 15.2% 0.283
Kakaley, Matt 0.766 15.7% 0.283
Marohn, Jim Jr 0.762 18.9% 0.322
Leonard, Casey 0.754 15.5% 0.277
Milby, Frank 0.740 15.8% 0.272
Aldrich, Bruce 0.728 18.7% 0.316
Brennan, George 0.717 16.0% 0.289
Jamieson, Jody 0.714 16.8% 0.291
Oosting, Mich 0.712 17.4% 0.289
Napolitano, Geo 0.706 16.5% 0.291
Miller, Andy 0.703 15.1% 0.278
Page, Chris 0.700 16.0% 0.275
Tetrick, Tim A 0.684 16.8% 0.294
Callahan, Corey 0.679 16.0% 0.275
Wrenn, Ronnie 0.662 16.2% 0.280
Parker, William 0.658 15.8% 0.277
Filion, Sylvain 0.645 15.0% 0.281
Morrill, Jim 0.624 17.2% 0.312

Just a Fan
04-01-2014, 02:53 PM
Courtesy of Trackmaster/Statsmaster, here are Morrill's numbers at PcD, his primary track in 2013 (but apparently not in 2014 ;) ).

849 drives, 169 wins, 20% win rate, .339 UDR, -32% ROI.

The ROI is low, but it is not out of line with other top drivers there such as Geo Nap, Kakaley, Buter, Carlson, and Pavia.

Statsmaster allows you to filter the data to show just favorites, and here are Morrill's Pocono stats with faves:

212 drives, 96 wins, 45% wins, .609 UDR, -16% ROI.

http://www.trackmaster.com/statsmaster/PCD.html

Nothing really out of the ordinary in Morrill's overall stats. Its hard to know if the ban is related to a questionable drive(s) or other bad behavior, but given the ratio between the purses there and the pools, it seems like Pocono would be an unlikely setting for a "bad" race (unless there were some shenanigans offshore). I am very surprised to see Callahan so low on your list (understanding that the stats might not be all inclusive). He had a positive 6% ROI in 722 drives at the Meadowlands last year, although he had a -33% ROI at Dover while leading the standings there. No data available from Philly.

Ray2000
04-01-2014, 04:31 PM
Thx for posting the link, JAF

I would have been a very bad accountant, if that was my career choice because I subscribe to the "Close Enough" theory when it comes to data keeping. :) My numbers are missing about 10-15% of starts for drivers and are not corrected for scheduled driver vs actual driver. That's why I'm reluctant to even post my numbers but always try to mention these are NOT the official numbers. USTA doesn't believe in ROIs and online TM data is Track Specific so it's up to the player to derive this stuff by himself.

BTW
My numbers for Callahan at Harrahs are :
1100 drives 13% Win rate, .65 roi, guess that is what pulls his numbers down.



At BigM for comparison, I have 552 drives 17% wins, .89 roi

might be missing a monster hit ? ....dunno :)

Just a Fan
04-01-2014, 06:02 PM
Callahan had 722 drives at the Meadowlands in the calendar year 2013 (again, according to Trackmaster) with that + 6% ROI. The best ROI months were all early in the year, I guess the public caught on to him.

I don't even know how you keep up with all that stuff (or 85-90% of the stuff, anyway :) ), I have a QH database that I maintain to create my own speed figs, and its very time consuming. Harness racing was kind of my first love, I keep up with what's going on but other than the winter months (when I don't have a night track to bet) I don't bet harness racing much anymore.

cmp92
04-02-2014, 12:28 AM
Without anything more than speculation, I'm confused how Morrill is welcome at the Meadowlands but he gets the boot from Pocono? Guys like Pena and Allard are not welcome at the Big M, but Pocono welcomes these guys. I know Morrill has had a checkered past, but given Pocono's reputation, it must really take a lot to get kicked out. What could Morrill have possibly done? Why Pocono but not the Meadowlands? Personal feud/vendetta? Judging how guys in New York drive against Morrill, I don't think many people ever really confront Morrill. Is the Meadowlands desperate since Gingras and Tetrick are away until late April? Why has it been kept quiet (Pocono has said nothing about the matter)?

Stillriledup
04-02-2014, 06:57 AM
Without anything more than speculation, I'm confused how Morrill is welcome at the Meadowlands but he gets the boot from Pocono? Guys like Pena and Allard are not welcome at the Big M, but Pocono welcomes these guys. I know Morrill has had a checkered past, but given Pocono's reputation, it must really take a lot to get kicked out. What could Morrill have possibly done? Why Pocono but not the Meadowlands? Personal feud/vendetta? Judging how guys in New York drive against Morrill, I don't think many people ever really confront Morrill. Is the Meadowlands desperate since Gingras and Tetrick are away until late April? Why has it been kept quiet (Pocono has said nothing about the matter)?

This is a good point, it seems to me that Morrill tries hard on all his drives, its not like he's decking 2-5 shots, if he's on a major contender, he's driving to win.....at least that's what i've seen.

As far as Morrill's ROI, he drives a LOT of 1-5 shots at Buffalo and some of these other smaller places, so maybe all the 2.60 winners hurt his ROI, but that's just a guess.

Just a Fan
04-02-2014, 02:43 PM
Derick Giwner is reporting that Morrill will be allowed back at PcD on May 1.

Have to think that the punishment had to do with some sort of bad behavior not related to race fixing, if they are letting him back in. And if they are waiting a month rather than reinstating him immediately, then they are telling us that the reinstatement isn't because Pocono feels like they made a mistake in the first place.

I have a very hard time believing Morrill when he says he has no idea what this is all about.

badcompany
04-02-2014, 06:47 PM
This is a good point, it seems to me that Morrill tries hard on all his drives, its not like he's decking 2-5 shots, if he's on a major contender, he's driving to win.....at least that's what i've seen.

As far as Morrill's ROI, he drives a LOT of 1-5 shots at Buffalo and some of these other smaller places, so maybe all the 2.60 winners hurt his ROI, but that's just a guess.

During the Summer, he drives the NYSS Circuit and is continually over bet. Young erratic horses, especially trotters, even more so,Filly trotters should not be 1/5.

That said, from a purely skill standpoint, Morrill is a phenomenal driver, one of the best ever.

Put it this way, all but a small handful of drivers on Morrill's horses, at the same odds would have as good of a ROI.

cmp92
04-03-2014, 12:39 AM
Derick Giwner is reporting that Morrill will be allowed back at PcD on May 1.

Have to think that the punishment had to do with some sort of bad behavior not related to race fixing, if they are letting him back in. And if they are waiting a month rather than reinstating him immediately, then they are telling us that the reinstatement isn't because Pocono feels like they made a mistake in the first place.

I have a very hard time believing Morrill when he says he has no idea what this is all about.
Big deal. I'm pretty sure the NYSS circuit starts up in May. After that, Morrill won't be available much at Pocono.