Derby futures - should Pool 1 be in Nov?

[horses4courses]

I have a predicament with a bet I made on Pool 1 in November.
I wheeled "the field" for a $5 EX over all 23 named horses.
My estimate at the time was that around 6 of those 23 might make it to the race. I was wrong.
Now, there may only be one or two - if that.

It brings up the question - should Pool 1 be that early?


DS Gross Win Pool Final $ Odds $2 Payoff
1 Almost Famous 30 6,365.00 30.40 $62.80
2 Bobby's Kitten 28 6,791.00 28.40 $58.80
3 Bond Holder 40 4,825.00 40.40 $82.80
4 Cairo Prince 26 7,182.00 26.80 $55.60
5 Cleburne 62 3,171.00 62.00 $126.00
6 Commissioner 33 5,722.00 33.90 $69.80
7 Coup de Grace 48 4,025.00 48.60 $99.20
8 Financial Mogul 99 882.00 225.70 $453.40
9 Havana 26 7,361.00 26.10 $54.20
10 Honor Code 10 17,521.00 10.40 $22.80
11 In Trouble 53 3,638.00 53.90 $109.80
12 Kobe's Back 84 2,334.00 84.60 $171.20
13 Mexikoma 40 4,830.00 40.40 $82.80
14 Misconnect 43 4,499.00 43.40 $88.80
15 New Year's Day 15 12,331.00 15.20 $32.40
16 Noble Moon 63 3,087.00 63.70 $129.40
17 Pablo Del Monte 59 3,287.00 59.80 $121.60
18 Ride On Curlin 57 3,403.00 57.70 $117.40
19 Rise Up 50 3,884.00 50.40 $102.80
20 Shared Belief 32 6,031.00 32.10 $66.20
21 Strong Mandate 27 6,941.00 27.80 $57.60
22 Tamarando 42 4,633.00 42.10 $86.20
23 Tap It Rich 25 7,654.00 25.10 $52.20
24 Mutuel Field "All Others" 4/5 107,681.00 0.80 $3.60
$238,078.00
35,096.00
WIN 10,841.00 $273,174.00
EX 1,661.00
Z11 Churchill Trackside Handle
140th Kentucky Derby Future Wager 2013-14
Pool 1
Final ODDS
Pool To

[Smarty Cide]

def not they should move it to the 3rd week in dec then do one once a month for 4 months

[tanner12oz]

They need to move the date..the pool was the week of black Friday and thanksgiving this year..either move it up or move it back a week

[stevem]

I have a predicament with a bet I made on Pool 1 in November.
I wheeled "the field" for a $5 EX over all 23 named horses.
My estimate at the time was that around 6 of those 23 might make it to the race. I was wrong.
Now, there may only be one or two - if that.

It brings up the question - should Pool 1 be that early?


DS Gross Win Pool Final $ Odds $2 Payoff
1 Almost Famous 30 6,365.00 30.40 $62.80
2 Bobby's Kitten 28 6,791.00 28.40 $58.80
3 Bond Holder 40 4,825.00 40.40 $82.80
4 Cairo Prince 26 7,182.00 26.80 $55.60
5 Cleburne 62 3,171.00 62.00 $126.00
6 Commissioner 33 5,722.00 33.90 $69.80
7 Coup de Grace 48 4,025.00 48.60 $99.20
8 Financial Mogul 99 882.00 225.70 $453.40
9 Havana 26 7,361.00 26.10 $54.20
10 Honor Code 10 17,521.00 10.40 $22.80
11 In Trouble 53 3,638.00 53.90 $109.80
12 Kobe's Back 84 2,334.00 84.60 $171.20
13 Mexikoma 40 4,830.00 40.40 $82.80
14 Misconnect 43 4,499.00 43.40 $88.80
15 New Year's Day 15 12,331.00 15.20 $32.40
16 Noble Moon 63 3,087.00 63.70 $129.40
17 Pablo Del Monte 59 3,287.00 59.80 $121.60
18 Ride On Curlin 57 3,403.00 57.70 $117.40
19 Rise Up 50 3,884.00 50.40 $102.80
20 Shared Belief 32 6,031.00 32.10 $66.20
21 Strong Mandate 27 6,941.00 27.80 $57.60
22 Tamarando 42 4,633.00 42.10 $86.20
23 Tap It Rich 25 7,654.00 25.10 $52.20
24 Mutuel Field "All Others" 4/5 107,681.00 0.80 $3.60
$238,078.00
35,096.00
WIN 10,841.00 $273,174.00
EX 1,661.00
Z11 Churchill Trackside Handle
140th Kentucky Derby Future Wager 2013-14
Pool 1
Final ODDS
Pool To

If only 1 or 2 make it, wouldnt you be certain to cash unless one of those wins? Maybe I am missing something here. But lets say the 1 and 2 from the pool make it to the derby and they are the only ones. For pool 1 exacta reasons wouldnt the other 18 horses be a mutual field

Therefore if the race finished Field-Field-Field-2-Field-Field-1
Exacta would be Field-2 and theoretically the Trifecta be Field-2-1

[Bennie]

I only took a few flyers thinking only a couple would make it and hoping come Derby day I would only need the horse to make the starting gate to have a winning exacta. If things don't fall into place in the next 2 weeks, there could be an all Pool #1 field starting lineup running in the Derby.
I posed this question some time ago when the top contenders starting falling by the wayside and haven't seen a clear explanation as to what happens if no one from Pool #1 make the gate? There is no field/field exacta. Will they refund all monies or keep all monies? And if this happens will they think twice about doing it again in the future?

[horses4courses]

If only 1 or 2 make it, wouldnt you be certain to cash unless one of those wins? Maybe I am missing something here. But lets say the 1 and 2 from the pool make it to the derby and they are the only ones. For pool 1 exacta reasons wouldnt the other 18 horses be a mutual field

Therefore if the race finished Field-Field-Field-2-Field-Field-1
Exacta would be Field-2 and theoretically the Trifecta be Field-2-1

My problem is this - I need at least one horse from those 23 to make it.
Then, yes. I would have many horses going for me over any that make it.
If nobody from the 23 makes it, then I'm assuming all exacta bets are refunds.

That goes back to the cardinal rule of betting - if you can't win, you can't lose.

[tanner12oz]

My problem is this - I need at least one horse from those 23 to make it.
Then, yes. I would have many horses going for me over any that make it.
If nobody from the 23 makes it, then I'm assuming all exacta bets are refunds.

That goes back to the cardinal rule of betting - if you can't win, you can't lose.

the chances of a refund are zero in my opinion.

[horses4courses]

the chances of a refund are zero in my opinion.

How so?
It's a pari-mutuel pool.
There will be no winning exacta ticket.
They are not booking futures like a bookmaker does.
No refund would be robbery.

[horses4courses]

How so?
It's a pari-mutuel pool.
There will be no winning exacta ticket.
They are not booking futures like a bookmaker does.
No refund would be robbery.

The only variation on this would be consolations.
Field (#24) with "all" might qualify in that situation.

[burnsy]

2. Scratches. If any betting interest is scratched, declared a non-starter or otherwise officially withdrawn or not entered in the event on which a Futures Pool is based, there will be no refund of monies wagered on that betting interest.

That's from the Churchill website under the exacta portion of the rules. I kind of think people are SOL on the refund theory. Its one of the reasons I think the play is a scam. Just looking at the list quickly it looks like maybe 1 or 2 of those will make it....they keep the rest...its like stealing and people play anyway. I've said this many times but until they make all triple crown nominees eligible and do away with that goofy "field"...its about the dumbest play a horseplayer can make. Even with that you gotta be willing to "piss" your money away when the horse does not make it......at least with all eligible contestants (on the menu) you would have a chance at huge pay offs...especially in the November pool. I would not hold my breath.....there has NEVER been a refund on those bets! People thought they were getting "value" with Uncle Mo at 3-1...........that's was really profitable, he didn't even run.......:bang: its pretty much a suckers bet...

[horses4courses]

2. Scratches. If any betting interest is scratched, declared a non-starter or otherwise officially withdrawn or not entered in the event on which a Futures Pool is based, there will be no refund of monies wagered on that betting interest.

That's from the Churchill website under the exacta portion of the rules. I kind of think people are SOL on the refund theory. Its one of the reasons I think the play is a scam. Just looking at the list quickly it looks like maybe 1 or 2 of those will make it....they keep the rest...its like stealing and people play anyway. I've said this many times but until they make all triple crown nominees eligible and do away with that goofy "field"...its about the dumbest play a horseplayer can make. Even with that you gotta be willing to "piss" your money away when the horse does not make it......at least with all eligible contestants (on the menu) you would have a chance at huge pay offs...especially in the November pool. I would not hold my breath.....there has NEVER been a refund on those bets! People thought they were getting "value" with Uncle Mo at 3-1...........that's was really profitable, he didn't even run.......:bang: its pretty much a suckers bet...

Not true.
I'm not sure what your source is, but I have read the rules on the Churchill website.
There is a separate section regarding exactas.
There is, also, a rule at the bottom that covers "unusual circumstances".
A situation where all 23 named entries do not make the race qualifies as such.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/future-wager/rules

They are not booking this wager as bookmakers.
They are not taking any risk, or incurring any liability, by booking the wager.
Keeping the entire exacta pool in such circumstances would be robbery.
Withholding the normal takeout on the pool, and then paying consolations, would be a fair solution.
Hopefully, it won't come to that.

[burnsy]

Future Wager Exacta Rules

The Kentucky Derby/Oaks Futures Exacta described herein is to be conducted consistent with established and approved Official Rules for the Derby and Oaks Futures Wager. Futures pools are distinguished by the general characteristic that selections of (wagers on) runners which for any reason are ultimately non-starters in the designated Kentucky Derby and/or Kentucky Oaks events are not subject to refunds (return of monies wagered thereon).

I got both right from the site. You are right the first one is under a different section but this goes directly to the exacta bet. Plus, I think a couple of the original 23 will make it to the derby. To them, I think it does not matter either way. If there's a refund hell might of frozen over. My source is the website you cited here.

[rastajenk]

I never thought adding exactas to the Futures was a good idea anyway. And I certainly don't think a November pool is necessary. Just another example of people in decision-making positions being too ambitious in their decision-making.

[tanner12oz]

I highly doubt cdi has any issues here...they made a buck by simply opening the pool...its not like they are losing a dime here...i agree that the bet is stupid but it will be a mainstay cuz its getting bet

[burnsy]

I never thought adding exactas to the Futures was a good idea anyway. And I certainly don't think a November pool is necessary. Just another example of people in decision-making positions being too ambitious in their decision-making.

It could be a good bet if all nominees were on the menu....the odds on some that are going would be huge from November. That Field crap and 23 interests ruins it.

[tanner12oz]

Why not have the pools mirror the tc nominations? Has anyone heard what basis they select the 23 individual betting interests right now? I think I've made 4 futures in this pool over the last decade and I am 2/4 with horses even making the gate let alone winning...

I do have a 4 figure wager on the field from November which is going smoothly

[horses4courses]

You gentlemen, burnsy and tanner, seem to be missing the point here.
CDI cannot keep the entire exacta pool.
It's not legal, and goes against all basic pari-mutuel principles.

Bookmakers who take futures get to keep entire pools.
That's because they took a risk in offering extended odds on various runners.
They incur liability on some horses, and win if they don't.
Pari-mutuel pools don't offer fixed odds and, therefore, cannot lose.
I should qualify that by saying they could have a minus pool, but the chances of that are very remote.

Let me put it another way.
For example, there is a catastrophic pileup in the Derby on the far turn.
Mine That Bird is the only horse to escape the trouble, and wins the race.
No other horse is able to make the finish line with a rider on.
Does CDI keep all the vertical exotics?
You know they don't.

[cnollfan]

It seems to me the answer is straightforward -- if the finish is Field - Field - Field all the way down, the futures exacta will pay Field - all. So if you have 12 discrete numbers under the Field you have Field - all 12 times. There shouldn't be a refund in that case, because people who bet the Field on top were closer to correct than those who bet a discrete horse on top, and should be rewarded thusly.

I like the Futures pool exacta -- it's pretty inefficient.

What I don't like is the futures pool limited to 23 horses plus a field -- there is no reason I can see not to have 400 separate numbers or however many nominees there are. Every track in the country can handle a trifecta in a 10 horse race, so what's the difference between buying a 4-2-9 trifecta and betting on # 429 to win? That's the true appeal of a future book -- nailing a 500-1 shot or higher months ahead of time.

I also don't like this year's tweak of closing the future pool on Saturday just before important races. Bettors like to have information, and that schedule is blatantly the opposite.

[horses4courses]

It seems to me the answer is straightforward -- if the finish is Field - Field - Field all the way down, the futures exacta will pay Field - all. So if you have 12 discrete numbers under the Field you have Field - all 12 times. There shouldn't be a refund in that case, because people who bet the Field on top were closer to correct than those who bet a discrete horse on top, and should be rewarded thusly.

I like the Futures pool exacta -- it's pretty inefficient.

What I don't like is the futures pool limited to 23 horses plus a field -- there is no reason I can see not to have 400 separate numbers or however many nominees there are. Every track in the country can handle a trifecta in a 10 horse race, so what's the difference between buying a 4-2-9 trifecta and betting on # 429 to win? That's the true appeal of a future book -- nailing a 500-1 shot or higher months ahead of time.

I also don't like this year's tweak of closing the future pool on Saturday just before important races. Bettors like to have information, and that schedule is blatantly the opposite.

I agree.

Surely, in this age of technology, there has to be a way to have hundreds of betting interests?

Closing the pools just before big prep races is lame.
People rush to the obvious horses right after those races.
The value lies in detecting the "not so obvious" live runners.

[tanner12oz]

why close them at all?

[horses4courses]

why close them at all?

Good point.

Say, though, that you had around 400 named betting interests to start.
You have to have a "field" to cover late nominations.
With that setup, you can't add any new horses as you go.

That's a slight drawback, but it would be much better than what they offer now.

[stevem]

I am thinking if no one from the original 23 makes the race, they will pay the exacta 24-all. I did a little bit of math and came up with that number being $4.70 to the dollar. Not sure about Kentucky rules, but it would be $4.75 if they go down to a nickel on the dollar exacta.

Doing something like including all nominated horses, with a $1 win minimum and making the exacta 10 or 20 cents might work. People would be boxing 10-20 horses or more.