Beyers from the Big 3

[cj]

Tapit 98
The Cliff's Edge 111
Smarty Jones 107

hmmmm......

If I find that 98 to be reasonably accurate, no way I can bet Tapit. The two preps only is a big strike to start with, this would be a little much for me.

Also, I haven't programmed it into my pace stuff yet, but I routinely knock 5 points off any rating at Keeneland. I don't have any scientific research to back me up, but the Kee numbers are always too high.

By the way, Forest Danger was given a Beyer of 110 winning the Bay Shore, that's a serious sprinter.

[cj]

By the way, all the prep figures I make are posted on my site under "Derby Preps." I'll have the Wood, Blue Grass, and Ark Derby up later in the week.

[OTM Al]

I'm not surprised at Smarty's number, but I am with Cliff's Edges'. The reason being the difference in track conditions, Oaklawn sloppy/muddy and Keeneland fast. Plus Smarty was .01 faster if I remember the times right. Any theories on that?

[Valuist]

Keeneland's track was surprisingly slow this past Saturday. I think the Beyer for The Cliffs Edge is legit; Lion Tamer was well in front of the 3rd place finisher (Limehouse). I'm a little surprised at how low the Wood came back; true the track was a paved highway for the sprints, and I guess there was no big gaps.

I swear CJ's avatar looks like Kramer with a haircut.

[SilverSow]

Looks more like Baretta (without the bird!) to me! LOLOL

Dave

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Valuist
I swear CJ's avatar looks like Kramer with a haircut.

here he is in a former life..............

http://www.littlestevensundergroundgarage.com/contentspagexx.htm

[cj]

You guys do know who that is, right?

[cj]

Back on track, here are the pace-speed combos I come up with for the big 3.

Wood:
109 - 98 (Slow pace, I don't think so!)

Blue Grass:
110 - 106

Arkansas Derby:
100 - 107

Judging by those figures, the most interesting horse to me would be Borrego. I'm still leaning towards Pollard's Vision, or a SA Derby horse if one gets in the race.

[OTM Al]

The only thing I would say in defense of the Wood and particularly its winner is that Tapit's run is the type of run which often wins or at least gets into the money at the Derby. That second wave of closers that so often nails those who thought they had the garden spot.

[peakpros]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Back on track, here are the pace-speed combos I come up with for the big 3.

Wood:
109 - 98 (Slow pace, I don't think so!)

Blue Grass:
110 - 106

Arkansas Derby:
100 - 107

Judging by those figures, the most interesting horse to me would be Borrego. I'm still leaning towards Pollard's Vision, or a SA Derby horse if one gets in the race.


Cj,

Can you comment more on the pace figure for the wood...i thought your first sense was that the pace was slow....any thoughts on why the number was higher than expected....

thanks

[andicap]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
You guys do know who that is, right?

Only my favorite charactor from The Sopranos and a great musician -- They should give him more to do on the show. In the first season I remember him being described as being very brutal, but as consigliere he's a smart guy too. I'm trying to figure out his relationship to Tony right now. How loyal is he? We know Paulie's pissed off.

Back on topic, Tapit is eligible to move forward yet again as Dickinson didn't even have him at his tightest. Enough to win? Probably now, but with this medicore crop, a 105 could contend.

That low pace number in the Arkansas Derby downgrades Smarty Jones for me. I like Pollard's Vision. Horses running out of the Illinois Derby have been live the last few years. (Ten Most Wanted ran a strong race last year with a horrific trip, may have been best or near best.)

If Blue Grass is legit, could Cliff bounce?? Trying to recall if Blue Grass winners actually race well in the Derby. Wood's been strong prep recently, and SA Derby has not been. Plenty of disappoinments coming out of that race, but this is one weird year.

Key to me is which horse will improve the most over the next few weeks and who will get the best racing luck on Derby day.

[andicap]

Oh yes,
"Miami" Stevie Van Zandt of course. His wife is also on the show in a small role.

CJ, can you recall any inside (i.e. Springsteen type) lines on The Sopranos? References to song, etc. I can't.

[PaceAdvantage]

Let me ask a dumb question. Why is it that so many of Dickinson's top horses tend to be injured or sick? Is it possible a trainer could have Munchausen by proxy syndrome? LOL

[Show Me the Wire]

PA:

A couple of possible reasons:

1. excuse for a poor performance.

2. makes him look great when the horse wins off an illniess.

Horses, especially young ones, get sick all the time. The other trainers do not make a big deal of it. Trainers know it is a fact of racing life.

The above does not mean he is a poor trainer and that has not turned horses around, the above statements mean he makes a big deal out of usual ocurrences.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

percpetion is reality

[cj]

Originally posted by peakpros
Cj,

Can you comment more on the pace figure for the wood...i thought your first sense was that the pace was slow....any thoughts on why the number was higher than expected....

thanks

That was just a visual observation, I figured a 1:11 and change would be slow on that very fast race track. When I checked it against my 9f pars for Aqu though, it was not.

That said, the only other route race of the day was at the very rarely run distance of 10.5 furlongs. So, there wasn't a lot of data to go on. It looks like a pretty fair assessment though, I am pretty confident it paints a reasonable picture of the race. Lets face it, none of the entrants going into the race had run particularly fast!

So the pace was honest, not overly fast, for a major G1 3yo prep race, and just fell apart at the end. The ultimate in illusions.

[cj]

Originally posted by andicap
CJ, can you recall any inside (i.e. Springsteen type) lines on The Sopranos? References to song, etc. I can't.

To be honest, I had never watched the show until I came to Belgium. A friend had the 1st season on DVD, I watched it and fell in love with the show. Now, I have seasons 2, 3, and 4 on DVD. I'm up to season 4 already.

Anyway, to answer your question, I haven't noticed any references either. They don't let him talk enough!

[Tom]

I think Tapit is doomed to run just like Arazi - big middle then done by the top of the stretch. That long stretch will eat him up.

[Observer]

Originally posted by Valuist
... The Cliffs Edge is legit; Lion Tamer was well in front of the 3rd place finisher (Limehouse). ...

That was Lion Heart in the Blue Grass at Keeneland .. Lion Heart is trained by Patrick Biancone .. Lion Tamer (4yo) did run at Keeneland on the Blue Grass undercard .. he won the Commonwealth BC for trainer Todd Pletcher. Michael Tabor is in a partnership that owns Lion Heart, and is the owner of Lion Tamer. Jockey Mike Smith rode both colts on Saturday.

[Valuist]

OK I *meant* Lion Heart, not Tamer.

CJ's pace figures for the Blue Grass confirm what I thought: the pace of the Blue Grass was fast, despite on paper it looking like Lion Heart was lone speed. Limehouse probably had a bit more speed than anyone was willing to give him credit for; he wasn't too far off some wicked fractions in the Hutcheson. So who was the best horse in the Blue Grass, after all? The Cliffs Edge even saved ground on the second turn then just came out as the field turned for home. I think I'd have to say the best horse was Lion Heart.

[cj]

Lexington:

Quintons Gold rush was given a 102 Beyer.

[justin]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Back on track, here are the pace-speed combos I come up with for the big 3.

Wood:
109 - 98 (Slow pace, I don't think so!)

Blue Grass:
110 - 106

Arkansas Derby:
100 - 107


I see on your website that you rated the Blue Grass at 112-109. Any reason for the upward revision? If it's legit, it's easily the best prep race to be run. But we both know how horses w/ big Keeneland figures have performed in past Derbies. Yet the track appears to be playing fairly this year. I have a hard time accepting the #s at face value but at the same time am a little hesitant to just ignore them :confused:

-Justin

[cj]

The original figures you quote were preliminary, I didn't have all the Beyers to look at for the race days. As for Keeneland, the figures look legitimate. The other races don't show any big time jump ups. I actually have the Blue Grass as 117 - 114, but I have been knocking Keeneland about 5 points of late as an experiment.

Either way, this was the strongest prep race since the Fountain of Youth. I've never seen a year with so many poor prep races in terms of the figures. Every year people knock the 3yo crop as being weak, but this year I really believe it. Just not a lot of talent this year. Reminds me of the year Sea Hero won, just not much out there.

Back to the Blue Grass, Keeneland was a VERY fair track that day. I think the Cliff's Edge and Lion Heart both ran huge races. As of now, with Rock Hard Ten being left out, I'd say the winner will be one of the above two, or Pollard's Vision or Castledale. I don't see anyone else with the goods.

I can't see Read The Footnotes bouncing back off the layoff, but if his odds are long, I'd give him a small chance.

[justin]

I hear ya...maybe one of the Blue Grass horses will offer good odds. I like Pollard's Vision too but have a really hard time getting excited about a Carson City horse getting 10F. Nothing I could find from his progeny to date shows this as being a realistic distance. I'd be happy if someone could show me otherwise. Best I could find for CC progeny was a mare that ran third in the 10F Delaware Handicap. Hardly a ringing endorsement.

-Justin

[OTM Al]

For Pollard's Vision

DP = 12-2-14-2-0 (30) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.80

Not the best for distance pedigree in the field, but not the worst either. Got some Northern Dancer a couple ways, one through Nijinsky (with Chris Evert) on dam side

[Valuist]

There was a letter to the editor in Sunday's DRF about Pollard's Vision's bloodline. Basically said the dam's side was very strong on stamina.

[delayjf]

I like the pattern on Smarty Jones, looks like he was not all that extended and went on well late, not an easy job in the slop.

I still can't recommend anything from the SA Derby given how slow they finished, I still believe Wimbleton did not show up and may improve in the Derby or at least run back to his LA Derby figures.

[OTM Al]

Smarty is about all I'm sure about for all slots on the exotics. I'm with you on the SA Derby. With Rock Hard Ten not likely to get in and Castledale probably not running (though I may slip him underneath if he does) I really didn't like a thing I saw in that race (especially since I had Castledale on top on Exacta and trifecta, so Wimbledon has my grudge against him for not getting up there :)) Nice column in the DRF today talking about the Derby entry rules. Still feel that Action This Day, Birdstone, Value Plus (though he probably will be out), and St. Averil at the least do not belong. Maybe one or more will prove me wrong in a couple weeks, but none of my money will be on any of them