Blue Grass

[Smarty Cide]

Crickets on this one so far - but it is 3 weeks out

[Thebigguy]

When they go back to dirt, this race will matter much more again.

[tanner12oz]

Wise Dan in the makers mark is a bigger deal for me

[Leparoux]

When they go back to dirt, this race will matter much more again.
Palace Malice turned out okay no?

[Valuist]

Is We Miss Artie going to go in the Blue Grass or is that coming back too quick?

We Miss Artie would have the makings of a big underlay if he went in the Blue Grass. He's 2 for 2 over Poly, but in that Keeneland stake last fall and the Spiral last weekend, both races were really falling apart at the end and the only real running was in the first 6 furlongs. Are they really considering the Derby with that horse? He has shown no indication of liking real dirt.

[Leparoux]

Is We Miss Artie going to go in the Blue Grass or is that coming back too quick?

We Miss Artie would have the makings of a big underlay if he went in the Blue Grass. He's 2 for 2 over Poly, but in that Keeneland stake last fall and the Spiral last weekend, both races were really falling apart at the end and the only real running was in the first 6 furlongs. Are they really considering the Derby with that horse? He has shown no indication of liking real dirt.
Right or wrong, if you have your ticket punched, you go. At least that is the thought process with most.

[iceknight]

Palace Malice turned out okay no? speaking of which.. whatever happened to Java's War.. is he coming back or retired?

[nijinski]

speaking of which.. whatever happened to Java's War.. is he coming back or retired?

Haven't heard of retirement but a few ??? .
After his poor attempt in the Pa Derby he was a sore horse according to Tagg and was suppose to return the beginning of the year after rest .
Maybe there was more but no reports .
Would really like to see him back if he's healthy

[Smarty Cide]

speaking of which.. whatever happened to Java's War.. is he coming back or retired?


he's rounding the final turn in last years kentucky derby as i type this....

[Leparoux]

I am ready for dirt back at Keeneland too but this race matters more than people care to admit.

[MNslappy]

I hope no one is kidding themselves about the Keeneland dirt playing any fairer than the current surface, because when they did have a dirt track it was typically a speed-biased super speedway. Two words: Sinister Minister.

[tanner12oz]

Anything else on this? Think posts get drawn tomorrow or Wednesday..bobbys kitten should be chalk right?

[bgbootha]

Anything else on this? Think posts get drawn tomorrow or Wednesday..bobbys kitten should be chalk right?

Just my thoughts, I haven't seen much solid....

Bobby's Kitten
Vinceremos
ExtraSexyHippzster
Coastline
Big Bazinga
Coltimus Prime

Along with some other scrubs my guess would be. And yes I would guess that Bobby would be the favorite here.

[tanner12oz]

Heard harrys holiday too

[Racey]

Bobbys Kitten
Asserting Bear
Coastline

[Bennie]

I hear Pletcher is loading up to try and get more horses into the Derby. Besides Vinceremos, he is sending Gala Award and Divine Oath. Also maybe Mr. Speaker (Shugs horse), Dance with Fate, Pablo DeMonte (who was on the first Derby pool), Casiguapo, Scotland and a few others. Field is limited to 14, I believe, and they may draw over that. I think the fields for the Bluegrass and the Arkansas are both drawn Wednesday.

[menifee]

Can't believe they are going to run Medal Count here off a week's rest. He did look good winning the Transylvania.

[Grits]

I think the fields for the Bluegrass and the Arkansas are both drawn Wednesday.

Keeneland's BlueGrass post draw is to be televised by TVG at 11:30 a.m. .... Everyone, drop whatever you're doing and tune in. Past performances will follow; available online before 7pm. You can begin your handicapping of this race before nightfall, gentlemen.

Like this is the most important prep on the way to Churchill Downs. :rolleyes:

I'll have more interest in the Arkansas Derby.

[Smarty Cide]

this seems to always interest me the least out of all the preps

[tanner12oz]

Keeneland's BlueGrass post draw is to be televised by TVG at 11:30 a.m. .... Everyone, drop whatever you're doing and tune in. Past performances will follow; available online before 7pm. You can begin your handicapping of this race before nightfall, gentlemen.

Like this is the most important prep on the way to Churchill Downs. :rolleyes:

I'll have more interest in the Arkansas Derby.

hopefully its as entertaining as the derby draw :bang: :bang:

[bgbootha]

Keeneland's BlueGrass post draw is to be televised by TVG at 11:30 a.m. .... Everyone, drop whatever you're doing and tune in. Past performances will follow; available online before 7pm. You can begin your handicapping of this race before nightfall, gentlemen.

Like this is the most important prep on the way to Churchill Downs. :rolleyes:

I'll have more interest in the Arkansas Derby.

They both draw a little interest for me, I am definitely on the side that wants to see the Arkansas more though

[Leparoux]

Really excited for this race... how could anyone not be interested in what Bobby's Kitten is going to do? Medal Count being wheeled back in a week after an impressive performance adds to the intrigue as well.

Favorite as failed in this race every time since it went to poly... can Bobby break the trend?

[Valuist]

I hope no one is kidding themselves about the Keeneland dirt playing any fairer than the current surface, because when they did have a dirt track it was typically a speed-biased super speedway. Two words: Sinister Minister.

They re-did the turns so you likely will not see a return of the rail highway. Speed was good, no question, but the real key at the old Kee was being nearest the rail. I saw a number of horses stalk the pace and win because they got thru on the inside. And if you were speed but parked outside, you were in big trouble.

[Robert Fischer]

Really nice field.

Bobby's Kitten is one of the top turf talents and would be a nice addition to the Derby.

Gala Award has one of the best pedigrees of the triple crown hopefuls (Bernardini x Carson City Mare) and he's a big strong colt with enough tactical speed to transfer to dirt. As far as pedigree and physical specimen goes, he's near the top of the list.


Harry's Holiday is a game horse who was best in the Spiral Stakes.

[Leparoux]

Harry's Holiday is a game horse who was best in the Spiral Stakes.
Has the feel of a horse who bombs in the Bluegrass but comes back to run well in the Lexington. Was real impressed by his 96rock performance and have been betting him since.

[Leparoux]

Longshot Casiguapo stretched his legs over the poly the other day with a cool 3F workout in 34 and change :eek:

Pablo Del Monte looks very intriguing for Ward. Couple of blow out wins over the track as a 2yo and getting away from GP could be the best thing for him. Has been working well and possibly will be lost in the wagering.

[Tall One]

Can't believe they are going to run Medal Count here off a week's rest. He did look good winning the Transylvania.



Bet down from 12-1 m/l to 3-1. :(

Don't see many wheel backs like Medal Count is facing, but I think he's got a legit chance. Closer, but drew the outside in a full field (see Rydilluc last year)

Leparoux--Battaglia and a local AM radio personality was touting Casiguapo yesterday as the horse too watch out for. :rolleyes:

I'm with you on Pablo Del Monte. Interesting entry, flying under the radar.

[RunDustyRun]

Love Bobby's Kitten here...even after being burned by him as my key horse in the BC

[SecretAgentMan]

Box numbers in the triple & super.......the favorite has never won in the Bluegrass ever since they installed the synthetics.......look for a longshot in here......

[Robert Fischer]

Box numbers in the triple & super.......the favorite has never won in the Bluegrass ever since they installed the synthetics.......look for a longshot in here......

Not the worst strategy for a race like this. 3-1(ML odds) on Bobby's Kitten is higher than I expect, given his performance so far and the fact that he's been so well backed in the past. I know we have full field, but Bobby's Kitten was 7-5 in a 13 horse field in the Juv. Turf.
If he's 3-1 , 7-2 I would almost see that as a negative. I expect <5-2.

When taking a shot at Keeneland it can sometimes save covering the whole field by grouping like-running styles. Maybe the exacta will be all speed, or all closers...

^Something to look for on the TimeformUS pace projector.

I hope it's not a "poly track" race, and that Bobby's Kitten fires, and that maybe a couple of the other interesting horses like Gala Award run their race. An impressive performance here could contribute an interesting addition to the Derby.

[Racey]

Asserting Bear iss good value here.

[Valuist]

Has there ever been a horse more maligned than Sinister Minister? Whenever we hear Kee is going back to dirt, somebody has to bring up Sinister Minister.

What about Mine that Bird? His form going into the Derby was decidedly worse than Sinister Minister's was going into the Blue Grass. Upsets happen. Deal with it and everybody quit crying because a longshot wired.

[Leparoux]

Has there ever been a horse more maligned than Sinister Minister? Whenever we hear Kee is going back to dirt, somebody has to bring up Sinister Minister.

What about Mine that Bird? His form going into the Derby was decidedly worse than Sinister Minister's was going into the Blue Grass. Upsets happen. Deal with it and everybody quit crying because a longshot wired.
:ThmbUp:

[Ocala Mike]

Using both the :1: and :2: on my gimmick tickets. Probably boxing :1: :2: :4: :5: for the exacta.

[raybo]

My rankings method will be the FVIV (final velocity + initial velocity) picks, because --- it's Keeneland.

Here are those picks in ranked order:

3 PABLO DEL MONTE
11 COASTLINE
13 MEDAL COUNT
1 ASSERTING BEAR
6 COLTIMUS PRIME

[cj]

This is a write-up I did on the Blue Grass:

http://timeformusblog.com/2014/04/11/the-gi-blue-grass-stakes/

[tanner12oz]

Dance with fate not nominated for the tc

[TheEdge07]

Can we please now stop talking about Bobby Kittens being the best 3 year old in the country..

More sizzle then steak..

[cj]

Dance with fate not nominated for the tc

He was a late nominee.

[SecretAgentMan]

Dance Fate was 12-1 ML & got bet down hard to 6-1........this horse looked like he needed more distance after losing his last race. Figured the favorite would be out of the money.

Medal cou t came back to run again after a week......trainer knew he would fire again & came & gota decent 2nd.

[tanner12oz]

He was a late nominee.

good didn't ser him on the list I looked at

[keithw84]

My rankings method will be the FVIV (final velocity + initial velocity) picks

Guess I'm too accustomed to Internet abbreviations. I read FVIV and immediately thought "For vhat it's vorth" in a German accent

[raybo]

Guess I'm too accustomed to Internet abbreviations. I read FVIV and immediately thought "For vhat it's vorth" in a German accent

Hmm - not a bad idea for an abbreviation - LOL! :lol:

[Valuist]

Very biased, speed killing track on Saturday at Keeneland. Felt like 2006 all over again.

[tanner12oz]

speed was better yesterday it seemed but wasn't holding saturday

[Leparoux]

Very biased, speed killing track on Saturday at Keeneland. Felt like 2006 all over again.
Explain...

[Valuist]

Explain...

race 2: Heavy 9-10 favorite blows a 4 length lead at 1/8th pole and doesn't even hold on for 2nd. Horses running last and 2nd to last early on run 1-2.

race 3: Favorite wins stalking pace setters while 4 wide. Early leader Augusta Rd tires to finish dead last.

race 4: Stellaris comes from 5 lengths back while wide to win. Deep closers run 2nd and 3rd, both well out in the track. Twenty in One was 16 lengths back at one point and finished a nose out of 2nd.

race 5: It looked like speed would hold when first timer Nobadeer shook clear by 3.5 lengths at 1/8th pole. Sultry Cat, 7th after 4 furlongs ran Nobadeer down and Rare, 8th after 4 furlongs finish 3rd. Two early leaders tire to finish 9th and 11th.

race 6: World is Watching, dead last in a field of 11, rallies to win. Strong Stipulation, 2nd to last after 4 furlongs, rallies to run 3rd. Athens, the early pacesetter, tires to finish 8th.

race 7: Occasional View, 2nd to last after 2 furlongs, circles wide to win. Dimension ran well against the track holding on for 2nd, but apparently a :46 half wasn't soft enough.

race 9: Heavy chalk Judy the Beauty wins from midpack, while closer Better Lucky finishes 2nd. Wildcat Lily, the early leader, fades to dead last.

race 11: Dance with Fate and Medal Cove were 11th and 8th after 6 furlongs yet manage to finish 1st and 2nd. Deep closers end up 4-5-6-7.

I would say that's very strong evidence speed was no good.

[horses4courses]

Very biased, speed killing track on Saturday at Keeneland. Felt like 2006 all over again.

Did you factor in strong winds?
Apparently, on the backstretch they were directly against the front runners,
then turned into tailwinds down the homestretch.

Pablo Del Monte ran an excellent race.
He was the only horse on, or near, the lead that kept going.

[Valuist]

Did you factor in strong winds?
Apparently, on the backstretch they were directly against the front runners,
then turned into tailwinds down the homestretch.

Pablo Del Monte ran an excellent race.
He was the only horse on, or near, the lead that kept going.

Pablo Del Monte did run well, as did Dimension.

As for the wind, I'll leave that to the T-Graph people and weather forecasters. The charts don't lie, and if the results were impacted by wind, the surface, or both, we know speed was no good.

[PhantomOnTour]

I wouldn't go so far as to say speed was no good.
The 1st was won by a pace war survivor, and many 2nd place runners on that card had to battle through some tough three and four way pace wars.

You cite Athens in the 6th as a fader, but the horse he dueled with ran 4th by about 2.5 lengths.

Most of the speed that survived was running wide...maybe it was the rail that was no good.

[Valuist]

I wouldn't go so far as to say speed was no good.
The 1st was won by a pace war survivor, and many 2nd place runners on that card had to battle through some tough three and four way pace wars.

You cite Athens in the 6th as a fader, but the horse he dueled with ran 4th by about 2.5 lengths.

Most of the speed that survived was running wide...maybe it was the rail that was no good.

Not sure there was any pace "wars". Not much in the way of brutal fractions and most of the races were fairly bunched. I'll give the winner of the first credit; the other 2 battlers ended up last and 2nd to last, and the 2nd and 3rd place finishers were last and 2nd to last after 4 furlongs.

Twang ran second after settling a solid pace, but he was a far back 2nd.