Arkansas Derby

[Smarty Cide]

eh screw it I started a thread for all the other big preps might as well...

Love Bayern - got him on Bovada at 75-1 in pool 2 - clearly did not want to run into California Chrome thats why he went to Arkansas. He needs the pts to qualify for the derby...

[picojim]

from bloodhorse today
Asked whether Bayern might run in either the Santa Anita Derby or the Arkansas Derby April 12, Baffert said, "I don't know yet."

[Smarty Cide]

might as well go to arkansas... he needs the pts. why run into California Chrome now? Get the points, get in the gate derby day... thats the way i look at it

unless he get some pts hes out of the derby.... love him as a preakness horse though

[Striker]

Rosario gets off Strong Mandate and will ride Tapiture in the Ark Derby.

[horses4courses]

Rosario gets off Strong Mandate and will ride Tapiture in the Ark Derby.

Tapiture is a very nice horse, and could be sitting on a big effort come May.

[tanner12oz]

from bloodhorse today
Asked whether Bayern might run in either the Santa Anita Derby or the Arkansas Derby April 12, Baffert said, "I don't know yet."

change of attitude for baffert thought Arkansas has been the plan since the injury....

[bgbootha]

Tapiture is a very nice horse, and could be sitting on a big effort come May.

Tapiture is near the top of my Derby list as well. Love this horse, and being that he is already in the gate with 42 points.

I almost hope he doesn't show up in the Arkansas and we can get an even better price in the derby.

[Smarty Cide]

I kinda think Bayern is gonna blow the doors off Tapiture, who seems to be the horse everyone thinks is going to take down Chromeo....


but i dont really know shit.. lets face it we are talking about animals running in a circle

[onefast99]

I kinda think Bayern is gonna blow the doors off Tapiture, who seems to be the horse everyone thinks is going to take down Chromeo....


but i dont really know shit.. lets face it we are talking about animals running in a circle
So I should add Bayern to my watch list?

[elhelmete]

I wonder if Conquest Titan will run.

[Leparoux]

Tapiture has been my Derby horse since the win in the Southwest and was a relatively unlucky 2nd in the Rebel. I'm sticking with him.

[SecretAgentMan]

If Tapiture wins the derby, will it lift the black cloud that's floating over Asmussens head? Does it help horse racing?

I would love to see Rasmussen win after getting his name pulled from the HOF. I mean, we all know the other top trainers have used & still use the same methods to training.

[precocity]

RIDE ON CURLIN -200-W/P/S? :cool: NOT FAKE MONEY!!!!!!!

[SecretAgentMan]

Exacta: Bayern with Tapiture & Ride Curlin.......

[precocity]

Exacta: Bayern with Tapiture & Ride Curlin.......
KNOW HE WILL BE IN THE DERBY AND I LIKE HIM ALOT? THINK HE SHOT HIS WALD IN HIS LAST RACE? THEY ALWAYS SHOOT THE SH$T AT OAKLAWN?

[SecretAgentMan]

KNOW HE WILL BE IN THE DERBY AND I LIKE HIM ALOT? THINK HE SHOT HIS WALD IN HIS LAST RACE? THEY ALWAYS SHOOT THE SH$T AT OAKLAWN?


I want to see how Ride Curlin runs after coming in 3rd by 1 to Hippy & Tap

[Racey]

Ride on Curlin is 12-1 morning line & the switch to Court ...seems like value

[bgbootha]

Ride on Curlin is 12-1 morning line & the switch to Court ...seems like value

Agreed, goign to be interesting and he looked good going against those two earlier in the year.

[Smarty Cide]

really want Bayern to win by like 15 again so I can get 4-1 on California Chrome... at 4-1 im in for 500 win bet

[delsully]

You can get CC @ +400 on Sportsbook futures.

[davew]

Bayern has no points, needs to get in top 2 today to even make it to derby.

[bgbootha]

I will be playing against Bayern today....2 months off against a solid field.

Either he is a superstar or he doesn't place. I will bet against a superstar.

[SecretAgentMan]

#9 Strong Mandate.......WPS

[PhantomOnTour]

I will be playing against Bayern today....2 months off against a solid field.

Either he is a superstar or he doesn't place. I will bet against a superstar.
His numbers don't put him above all of these either.
He will face a faster pace vs better horses this time, and off the layoff, as you stated.

I must go against the expected chalk

[Ocala Mike]

Sticking with the :4: and Jon Court in my exactas and tris.

[raybo]

Using my PFV (power/form/velocities) picks for this one.

Here are those picks, in ranked order:

8 BAYERN
3 TAPITURE
7 CONQUEST TITAN
6 COMMISSIONER
4 RIDE ON CURLIN

[luvalab]

I have a hard time getting away from Tapiture in this one. He's done little wrong in his last 3 starts and had the troubled trip last out turning for home in the Rebel. Plus all 3 of his last starts have been at or above par.

Bayern, looks like a nice horse on paper, but he is facing much tougher today and 90% of the last 20 Arkansas Derby winners ran in a previous Ky Derby Prep. But, with that said I don't discount him.

I'll use Tapiture over Bayern, Ride On Curlin, Strong Mandate and Conquest Titan in the Trifecta.

[Robert Fischer]

Morning line on this race was nuts.

Bayern should go off around 8/5 as the favorite. Not as 2nd choice as ranked in the ML.

[Robert Fischer]

I used to think that Strong Mandate would prove superior to Tapiture. Tapiture was getting good trips and Strong Mandate was running vs the grain, but I think Strong Mandate is simply a Grade 1horse during the heart of the race but a Grade 3 horse in the lane.

Unfortunately no value in that, as the public agrees with that ranking.

Strong Mandate can still factor or beat Tapiture.

Commissioner looks like a Grade 3 horse, But the body of this race is pretty weak, and if he has a good day he could be 2nd or 3rd.

Bayern looks dominant and should be about even money for fair odds.
He's the top 3yo derby contender at this point. The question with him is whether or not his health is strong and he can carry his form forward into a peak form cycle. His workouts indicate he will.



my $500 contest play

$200 win :8:
$200 win :3:

$50 exacta :8: with :3:
$30 exacta :8: with :9:
$20 exacta :8: with :6:

Total = $500

[lamboguy]

on paper this looks like the best derby prep race, we shall see what happens after the race.

[dannyhill]

Morning line on this race was nuts.

Bayern should go off around 8/5 as the favorite. Not as 2nd choice as ranked in the ML.
He was 2/1 ML If he goes off at 8/5 as you say how's that nuts?

[Robert Fischer]

He was 2/1 ML If he goes off at 8/5 as you say how's that nuts?

Tapiture is listed @ 9/5 ML.

[jettroofer]

$2 Tri 4,6/3,4,6,9/3,7,8,9 up and back
$40 WPS 4
$5 EB 3,4,6

[Racetrack Playa]

:5: Thundergram cnote wps
Surprise me

[Robert Fischer]

:D Danza who?


That horse looked good.

[jettroofer]

I'll take the place. I like the son of Curlin

[dannyhill]

:D Danza who?


That horse looked good.
Sure did......Wonder if Tony bet him.

[Tom]

Let me bet that race 8 more times and i never bet that one.
Nothing in this one should waste their time going to KY.

[Bullet Plane]

Here we go again. First Social Inclusion, now Bayern...

Overhyped horses getting creamed by nothings...

[Tom]

I wonder if Conquest Titan will run.

He ran....but he only ran 8.5 furlongs.:bang:

[pele polo]

Pletcher at 40-1. When does that happen ever?

Derby looks ridiculously wide open

[jettroofer]

Bayern........they actually compared him to Bodie. LMAO

[davew]

Here we go again. First Social Inclusion, now Bayern...

Overhyped horses getting creamed by nothings...

The point system is nuts - prep races for the Derby are now mandatory wins.

[Tom]

Bayern has no points, needs to get in top 2 today to even make it to derby.

Glad this happened.
Your don't run, you don't deserve to be in.
Hope the owner is happy tonight. :D

[SecretAgentMan]

Let me bet that race 8 more times and i never bet that one.
Nothing in this one should waste their time going to KY.


I agree 100%......I haven't seen anything that jumped out at me in neither big prep race this weekend.

[JustRalph]

RIDE ON CURLIN -200-W/P/S? :cool: NOT FAKE MONEY!!!!!!!

I hope you played it.....very nice payout all things considered :ThmbUp:

[horses4courses]

I guess this means we get to see Tony Danza at the Derby? :eek:

[keithw84]

The point system is nuts - prep races for the Derby are now mandatory wins.

30 points is the new $200,000. Is the point system any nuttier than a system that put sprinters like Trinniberg in based on graded stakes earnings?

[Smarty Cide]

Wow Danza had a perfect trip but looked pretty good. he will find a spot in my tris or supers


good candidate to 'clunk up' and hit the 3rd or 4th

[raybo]

Dang! In both preps today I had the top 3 or 4 finishers in my top 4 or 5, except I didn't have either of the winners. Hmmmmm

[JustRalph]

Wow Danza had a perfect trip but looked pretty good. he will find a spot in my tris or supers


good candidate to 'clunk up' and hit the 3rd or 4th

I am curious to see CJ's timeform numbers


I have to admit, he looked like he would have won by 15L if they were going another furlong

[Smarty Cide]

I am curious to see CJ's timeform numbers


I have to admit, he looked like he would have won by 15L if they were going another furlong


excuse my ignorance but what the heck is a time form number?

[burnsy]

Glad this happened.
Your don't run, you don't deserve to be in.
Hope the owner is happy tonight. :D

I agree, this run twice garbage will be re-thought....plus the horses that got dinged.....have been up shits creek. E
very horse that missed training or races is either out or on the bubble. rightly so.

[precocity]

I hope you played it.....very nice payout all things considered :ThmbUp:
ralph just got home from lone star park the traffic on the way home was outrageous yes had that bet on ride on curling? but put a 100$ more on the win and place left 1400 ahead? not bragging but better than nothing! got the hell out of there.... :cool: :cool:

[cj]

I am curious to see CJ's timeform numbers


I have to admit, he looked like he would have won by 15L if they were going another furlong

Working on them now! I posted Blue Grass on Twitter, this one will follow.

[cj]

excuse my ignorance but what the heck is a time form number?

http://www.timeformus.com

http://timeformusblog.com/

[letswastemoney]

The Rebel Stakes horses just are not that good! except Hoppertunity maybe.

[letswastemoney]

Here we go again. First Social Inclusion, now Bayern...

Overhyped horses getting creamed by nothings...

Social Inclusion ran an extremely fast race in the Wood Memorial. He has nothing to be ashamed of, and Wicked Strong/Samraat were not nothing.

[JustRalph]

ralph just got home from lone star park the traffic on the way home was outrageous yes had that bet on ride on curling? but put a 100$ more on the win and place left 1400 ahead? not bragging but better than nothing! got the hell out of there.... :cool: :cool:

Great! :ThmbUp:

[precocity]

Great! :ThmbUp:
rangers were playing? :ThmbUp:

[precocity]

KNOW HE WILL BE IN THE DERBY AND I LIKE HIM ALOT? THINK HE SHOT HIS WALD IN HIS LAST RACE? THEY ALWAYS SHOOT THE SH$T AT OAKLAWN?
:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :1: dam??????

[depalma113]

ROCky moved 5 wide around the turn and still closed into the winner who got a perfect inside trip.

Cue Survivor music and Burgess Meredith quotes.

[taxicab]

I think Danza is legit.
He doesn't warm it up until after the 8th furlong.
Once he does get going his stride is visually impressive.
He really gobbles up the real estate when he's rolling.
Take a look at his Saratoga Special which is about 4 furlongs less than what Danza wants.....it's a good looking run. :ThmbUp:
I believe Danza is trainer TP best 3yo and a contender in all three TC races.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaZls_fRot4