Santa Anita Derby

[Smarty Cide]

2 weeks away, might as well start talking about it...

[Smarty Cide]

California Chrome vs Candy Boy

if either win are they the M/L fav for the Derby?

[Rex Phinney]

If California Chrome wins, he is the Derby favorite, for sure. If Candy Boy wins, IMO the Derby then looks very wide open, It would be hard to put him ahead of any of the other major prep winners.

I think the track is a big tell also. If it is too speed bias, the result will be hard to translate to the Derby. I like California Chrome alot, but if he wins another race on a track similar to his last, I'd be hard pressed to give my money on Derby day.

I was there for the San Felipe though, and when that horse switched leads, it was off the charts.

Looks like the West Coast will be sending to Kentucky:

California Chrome
Candy Boy
Hopertunity
Midnight Hawk
Chitu

And maybe one more should nyone surprise on Saturday.

[horses4courses]

If California Chrome wins, he is the Derby favorite, for sure. If Candy Boy wins, IMO the Derby then looks very wide open, It would be hard to put him ahead of any of the other major prep winners.

I think the track is a big tell also. If it is too speed bias, the result will be hard to translate to the Derby. I like California Chrome alot, but if he wins another race on a track similar to his last, I'd be hard pressed to give my money on Derby day.

I was there for the San Felipe though, and when that horse switched leads, it was off the charts.

Looks like the West Coast will be sending to Kentucky:

California Chrome
Candy Boy
Hopertunity
Midnight Hawk
Chitu

And maybe one more should nyone surprise on Saturday.

Add Bayern to the list.
He should get in via Arkansas.

[Smarty Cide]

Chitu will finish in the super in the derby... mark it down

[classhandicapper]

If California Chrome wins, he is the Derby favorite, for sure. If Candy Boy wins, IMO the Derby then looks very wide open, It would be hard to put him ahead of any of the other major prep winners.

I think the track is a big tell also. If it is too speed bias, the result will be hard to translate to the Derby. I like California Chrome a lot, but if he wins another race on a track similar to his last, I'd be hard pressed to give my money on Derby day.



I agree. That was not an honest track last time out.

[mostpost]

I agree. That was not an honest track last time out.
What do you base that opinion on? There were seven dirt races on San Felipe day. Four of them were won wire to wire, or nearly so.
Three were won in come from behind fashion.
Race # 1 was at five and a half furlongs. The winners running line was
5-4-3-1.
The seventh race was at seven furlongs. The running line was 8-9-8-1
The tenth race was at six and a half furlongs. The running line 4-3-2-1

Also, one of those wire to wire winners was Game on Dude, a noted front runner.

The fact that California Chrome led all the way and drew off in the stretch might mean that he is a superior horse.

[menifee]

California Chrome is the real deal. Horse has foundation, tactical speed (can rate or go to the lead) and is fast.

The only real question about the horse is whether he can beat better competition. I don't think he really has faced much yet. This weekend is a real test - if he runs as fast and beats this field solidly - he will be the Derby favorite. The only caveat to that would be if Social Inclusion or Bayern freak and win by 10+ lengths.

The winners of the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby and Spiral will be 10-1 or higher.

[Vinnie]

What do you base that opinion on? There were seven dirt races on San Felipe day. Four of them were won wire to wire, or nearly so.
Three were won in come from behind fashion.
Race # 1 was at five and a half furlongs. The winners running line was
5-4-3-1.
The seventh race was at seven furlongs. The running line was 8-9-8-1
The tenth race was at six and a half furlongs. The running line 4-3-2-1

Also, one of those wire to wire winners was Game on Dude, a noted front runner.

The fact that California Chrome led all the way and drew off in the stretch might mean that he is a superior horse.

I must completely agree with mostpost's message above. Did any of the other horses on the day of the San Felipe get carried over that racetrack the way that Cal. Chrome did? No... He did it all on his own, and although he made it appear to be a pretty effortless feat in the process, it was quite remarkable the type of apparent ease in which he traveled over the track's surface. Upon the completion of the race Cal. Chrome didn't appear to be even the slightest bit winded. Fast early, Fast mid-track and Fast Late equates to big trouble for anyone who is running with him if he is feeling at all like he has been these last several months. This beautiful horse is going to make things very interesting in this years Derby and TC races.

[Smarty Cide]

im so excited to watch this horse saturday... even tho i dont have any futures bets on him. if he cruises in this one i think we have a rock star we havent had since big brown... a legit TC contender and this sport needs superstars...

one of the biggest problems with horse racing is when we create superstars we retire them...

[Rex Phinney]

I must completely agree with mostpost's message above. Did any of the other horses on the day of the San Felipe get carried over that racetrack the way that Cal. Chrome did? No... He did it all on his own, and although he made it appear to be a pretty effortless feat in the process, it was quite remarkable the type of apparent ease in which he traveled over the track's surface. Upon the completion of the race Cal. Chrome didn't appear to be even the slightest bit winded. Fast early, Fast mid-track and Fast Late equates to big trouble for anyone who is running with him if he is feeling at all like he has been these last several months. This beautiful horse is going to make things very interesting in this years Derby and TC races.

He hasn't won a big time prep yet so slow down. I'm a big of fan of the horse but some of you are getting carried away.

The speed bias on the track was obvious that day, what more proof do you need than the way California Chrome was hustled to the front? He hadn't been sent like that in any of his other races.

I don't need to look at any other races that day, the horse went to a half mile in :45 and didn't get beat, that tells me either the track was playing to speed or the horses he beat aren't worth a damn.

On the same day Game on Dude made a mockery of the two best horses in training. I love Game on Dude, but I'm realistic to know that his wins come in one flavor.

[Smarty Cide]

good point, but the potential is there.... the baloon could burst saturday but at the same time another romp and we could be watching something special... saturday evening we will know alot more...


3 more days

[precocity]

California Chrome vs Candy Boy

if either win are they the M/L fav for the Derby?
thats my 200$ exta box. :ThmbUp:

[Smarty Cide]

who you think is the 3rd choice?

[precocity]

who you think is the 3rd choice?
EH DON'T NO YET WILL POST.

[Smarty Cide]

EH DON'T NO YET WILL POST.


isnt it 'know' not 'no'?

just saying...

[precocity]

isnt it 'know' not 'no'?

just saying...
typo cide just yelling!

[Smarty Cide]

typo cide just yelling!

a typo means you kinda pressed the wrong keys, thats kinda more a brain fart, no?

just saying... :lol:

[Rex Phinney]

who you think is the 3rd choice?

Some guy named Baffert has one in here. LOL

Hoppertunity is supposed to be entered, he has already beaten Strong Mandate and Tapiture.

[classhandicapper]

I've been thinking about taking a shot against California Chrome, but when I looked at the field for the SA Derby it doesn't look like there's any quality speed in the race to keep him honest.

[cj]

I've been thinking about taking a shot against California Chrome, but when I looked at the field for the SA Derby it doesn't look like there's any quality speed in the race to keep him honest.

When did he become a speedball? He seems pretty versatile to me.

[bks]

CC literally jumped out of the gate last time, and had a two length lead in what seemed like five seconds. I wouldn't expect that to happen again, but I don't think it needs to, either.

He should be around the lead. Hopefully Candy Boy or Hoppertunity can test him.

[classhandicapper]

When did he become a speedball? He seems pretty versatile to me.

Agree. But they used his speed to get to the inside last time (smart move) and it looks like there's no quality speed in this race. So I would think they'd use his speed as a tactical advantage again (even if the track is honest).

[bgbootha]

HBD Top Pick

:5: California Chrome is a horse that I would love to find a reason to play against in this situation but in this 8 horse field, I just can’t find one. At home on this track, he has been just too good lately, and has been putting in monster workouts o boot. His win in the San Felipe was very impressive and was against what looked to be a solid field. He will break from much further outside this time around, but should be able to get the rail and looks to be the only horse with any desire to real speed to take this thing from the front. The price won’t be right here, and I probably won’t play this race, but California Chrome may walk away with this one as well.

Top Contenders

:6: Candy Boy has looked impressive in his last few outings and has seemed to really like this Santa Anita track. He won his last race the Robert B Lewis catching a fast Chity down the stretch. He will more than likely try to come from off the pace again, but without a real pace scenario in front of him, I am not sure what kind of honest pace he is going to get here. He will also be contending with Hoppertunity who will more than likely be charging right along side of each other as they move down the stretch. Candy Boy hasn’t raced in 56 days and has some pedigree questions concerning this distance. But he has shown the ability to take 1 1/16 mile races on the artificial at Hollywood Park so we should be able to assume this distance is manageable here.

:3: Hoppertunity’s win in the Rebel Stakes was a great win that solidified him as a contender come derby day. He is here in this field because Baffert didn’t want to ship this colt across country for the third straight time. It isn’t a matter of whether or not this colt can win, its whether or not the pace and this track will allow him to run the race he wants to run. He already has enough points to make the derby field and may not need this race on his resume. Mike Smith stays aboard and the talent of this horse is too good to ignore. He has to be in the top couple of choices in this one.

B/C Horses

:2: Friendswith K Mill is an interesting horse in this race. He took a gianst step up last out in a 58000 Allowance race finishing second at a large price. But that was his first attempt at over a mile on the dirt and he seemed to love the Santa Anita dirt track that he will get another chance at today. His late running style is going to put him right next two Candy Boy and Hoppertunity who are more than likely better options. But this Doug O’Neil colt has been putting in monster workouts and looks to be ready to give his best shot. Could be the long shot that comes through for O’Neil if the race falls apart for those in front of him.

:8: Dublin Up hasn’t showed well and makes a jockey change in this one. But a couple of things really jump out when looking a little deeper into this horse. First the pedigree points toward loving the longer distance and , track and setting. He may have a future on the turf as well. But other than the possibility of California Chrome, Dublin Up is also the only other horse in the field who may take a chance and try to steal this one from the lead. We know that Santa Anita has a habit of turning into a conveyer belt and if the track has a hint of bias Dublin may have a chance of stealing this one, or at the very least steal some Derby points along the way. The outside post doesn’t help, but a good break and a soft pace could keep this on in contention.

Back-End Exotics

:2: Friendswith K Mill is an interesting horse in this race. He took a giant step up last out in a 58000 Allowance race finishing second at a large price. But that was his first attempt at over a mile on the dirt and he seemed to love the Santa Anita dirt track that he will get another chance at today. His late running style is going to put him right next two Candy Boy and Hoppertunity who are more than likely better options. But this Doug O’Neil colt has been putting in monster workouts and looks to be ready to give his best shot.

Toss'em

:4: Big Tire nosed out Rprettyboyfloyd in his last outing but hasn’t shown anything that would make you think he belongs in this field.

:1: Rprettyboyfloyd is still looking for his maiden win in five starts. Although he has finished in the top three in all five of his races, he has yet to find the winners circle, and I don’t see how that changes here against this solid field of 8. Speed figures are nothing special and his only try against graded company resulted in a six length loss to the likes of Kobe’s Back who is no longer on the derby trail.

:7: Schoolofhardrocks is lightly raced having broke his maiden in his first start back in August, but has only raced one other time in the San Felipe in early March. He could be looking for improvement in his second start off the layoff, but he took a step back when moving off the Del Mar synthetic to Santa Anita and doesn’t seem like there is going to be much room for improvement against this field.

[Smarty Cide]

does drf give free pp's for the big prep races?

[FlyinLate]

does drf give free pp's for the big prep races?


Just use whobet trks2day :)

[bgbootha]

http://www.trks2day.com/saturday.html

Life as you know it has changed

[precocity]

who you think is the 3rd choice?
:5: :6: :1: :8: :rolleyes:

[Smarty Cide]

http://www.trks2day.com/saturday.html

Life as you know it has changed


i dont get it... what am i missing?

[bgbootha]

i dont get it... what am i missing?

This wil give you free PPs for 80% of races at major tracks.

[precocity]

i dont get it... what am i missing?
just saying :cool:

[Smarty Cide]

wooo Santa Anita Derby day!!!

[Ocala Mike]

:5: with :1: and/or :8: to hit the 2,3,4 spot(s).

[TMQ]

I have a feeling someone will get lonely on the front end. Odd for SA Derby to have so little speed. CC should get the lead easily, seems like a few horses left SA for the Wood wonder who they are afraid of?

[Smarty Cide]

Hoppertunity is a great name.... just fun to say... just saying... :cool:

[horses4courses]

:7: Schoolofhardrocks capable of hitting the board here

Would be nice to see David Hofmans have a Derby runner. :ThmbUp:

[depalma113]

:2: :3: :5: box in exacta and trifecta
WP on :2:

[Robert Fischer]

I hope the chrome horse wins so he takes money in the derby.

Passing.

I hate when these horses lose their prep and I passed, and never get to exploit the underlay.

Hoppertunity is the horse I like from this race for the Derby as an underneath contender. I hope California Chrome beats him today with a the tactical speed advantage that CC holds.

[bks]

I hope the chrome horse wins so he takes money in the derby.

Passing.

I hate when these horses lose their prep and I passed, and never get to exploit the underlay.

Hoppertunity is the horse I like from this race for the Derby as an underneath contender. I hope California Chrome beats him today with a the tactical speed advantage that CC holds.


Don't think you'll have to worry about him taking money, Robert.

[pele polo]

Will definitely be the favorite in the Derby. Loved the way he handled the adversity early on in this race and won like a Champ in the end.

[classhandicapper]

The list of horses I'm not as thrilled with as most people keeps growing. I'm not sure I've seen a horse fire the type of race that will allow me to let the moths out of my wallet yet.

[bks]

The list of horses I'm not as thrilled with as most people keeps growing. I'm not sure I've seen a horse fire the type of race that will allow me to let the moths out of my wallet yet.

How much did you want him to win by, CH? And how easily?

[mostpost]

The list of horses I'm not as thrilled with as most people keeps growing. I'm not sure I've seen a horse fire the type of race that will allow me to let the moths out of my wallet yet.
you must be a lot of fun at a party. :rolleyes: You're a glass is half empty and somebody spit in the glass kind of guy.

[raybo]

Well, we had the cold trifecta and certainly would have had the super as well, but this race was one to pass. Our rankings were 5 3 6 and looked like no money to be made, and that came true.

California Chrome looked like a Derby horse to me. But, with all the speed that will be in the Derby, he'll have to rate off the lead, which I believe he won't have a problem doing. Not saying he is my winner yet, but he certainly didn't disappoint.

[classhandicapper]

How much did you want him to win by, CH? And how easily?


you must be a lot of fun at a party. You're a glass is half empty and somebody spit in the glass kind of guy.



:lol:

I think he's a very very good horse.

I just think he was on the rail last time on a day when the rail was the best place to be and he stalked a non entity today before getting first move in a race that didn't have a lot of quality speed.

I think as good as he is, he's probably not as good as he looks.

In a 20 horse field with other quality speeds going 10F he can easily get beat as the favorite.

[Robert Fischer]

Good race from Chrome.

He exceeded my expectations. That was a rugged first 1/8th where he handled a little bit of race-riding from the gate, and he didn't let it affect his last quarter.
I'm nowhere near as confident playing against him in Kentucky as I was at 5:30 or whatever.

Hoppertunity ran pretty much exactly to my expectations. Broke to a stalking position. Got a great trip. Finished well the final 8th and galloped out like a marathoner. He's an interesting add to derby exotics.

[mostpost]

:lol:

I think he's a very very good horse.

I just think he was on the rail last time on a day when the rail was the best place to be and he stalked a non entity today before getting first move in a race that didn't have a lot of quality speed.

I think as good as he is, he's probably not as good as he looks.

In a 20 horse field with other quality speeds going 10F he can easily get beat as the favorite.
I don't think there is as much speed as you think. At least not compared to California Chrome. I went back and looked at the brisnet past performances for the top horses in the Wood and the Santa Anita Derby; particularly the E1 and the E2 figures. I am assuming that the E1 in a route is for the first half mile and the E2 is for six furlongs. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Here are the E1 figures for the last race prior to today.
California Chrome........104
Uncle Sigh..................89
Social Inclusion............89
Candy Boy..................88
Samraat.....................87
Hopportunity...............86
Wicked Strong.............68

And the E2 figure,
California Chrome........107
Saamrat....................101
Uncle Sigh..................101
Social Inclusion...........100
Hopportunity...............95
Candy Boy..................92
Wicked Strong.............83

It seems to me that this indicates California Chrome is much faster than any of these at the half and considerably faster after six furlongs.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think there is as much speed as you think. At least not compared to California Chrome. I went back and looked at the brisnet past performances for the top horses in the Wood and the Santa Anita Derby; particularly the E1 and the E2 figures. I am assuming that the E1 in a route is for the first half mile and the E2 is for six furlongs. Please correct me if I am wrong.




There was no quality speed in the SA Derby. That's why I didn't even consider betting against him there. There was speed in the Wood, but Social Inclusion is out now. So we'll have to see who else shows up. The big thing is that it's a 20 horse field. In a 20 horse field, even "near the lead" types tend to add to the pace because you can wind up with 6-10 horses that want to be close and they all get used. So whatever you project the pace to be, add to it.

[raybo]

I agree, the SA Derby ran just like it should have. CC was a dominant horse in that field. Mostpost listed 5 other horses in his speed comparison, CC would dominate all of those, at 1 1/8m, in a race with them. Now add another 1/8m and 14 more horses. That's a totally different scenario.

[classhandicapper]

Does this mean anything?

Rprettyboyfloyd only lost the show by 1 3/4 lengths and he just disappointed in back to back maiden races. How strong was that group other than the top 2?

[Tom]

Does this mean anything?

Got some good good Maiden races out there?