Today's Races

[cj]

Hard to get a good gauge of things until I sit down and do some pace and speed numbers, but I like to evaluate visually first.

Wood: Good race by Tapit. I think on that track 47 was a slow pace, so the others don't impress me.

Blue Grass: The Cliff's Edge was impressive. Lion Heart just isn't a 1 1/4 horse, or maybe even 1 1/8 horse. Can't see anyone else from here as a Derby horse.

Ark Derby: What can you say about Smarty? Not the easiest of trips, but he dug in and ran huge. I still have my doubts about him three weeks from now, but the writers will love his story.

Early forecast...

Pollard's Vision
Tapit
Castledale

Let the Derby talk begin...LOL.

PS...The Bay Shore...Forest Danger...WOW!

[Blackgold]

Tapit didn't break well and when he got going he really seemed like he wasn't going all out. Just saw the whip applied sparingly at top of stretch. Think he will be rightly favored in the Derby.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'd hate to have to come up with a speed figure for the Wood Memorial. Twice at 7f they flirted quite intimately with the track record. In light of that, the Wood was quite pedestrian at 1:49 and change, don't you think?

[WINMANWIN]

I think I have my sure fire Exacta box for the derby. The 3 winners were quite impressive and after viewing the pp's from the 3 big 3 yr old races today, I'm leaning toward The Cliffs Edge
PA, remember we were in TOGA together, and I heard Jan Rushton's Pre race prattle say, Zito said to bet this one with BOTH FISTS that day :D I told you and the Suff with like 5 mins to post, :eek: Anyway, the Cliffs Edge is 2 for 2 at churchill, and he looked super today, so 2 for 2 over the track is good enuff for me. Smarty JONES has done everything right, undefeated, great story, ETC, I'm using. Tapit the mad genius has struck again, dont you love it how he makes himself look so smart all the time, he said on nbc television before the race, Tapit was JusT over his infection, and if he just finished 3rd today, he would be ELATED. Tapit looked Exceptional and the longer this 1 goes, the better he seems to like it.This derby is a no brainer, the picture is much clearer now........:D

[Tee]

Simply put,

I like The Cliff's Edge & Borrego.

Liked em going into today & they did nothing to change my mind.

Will be monitoring their progress for any changes that could sway my opinion.

[jotb]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Hard to get a good gauge of things until I sit down and do some pace and speed numbers, but I like to evaluate visually first.

Wood: Good race by Tapit. I think on that track 47 was a slow pace, so the others don't impress me.

Blue Grass: The Cliff's Edge was impressive. Lion Heart just isn't a 1 1/4 horse, or maybe even 1 1/8 horse. Can't see anyone else from here as a Derby horse.

Ark Derby: What can you say about Smarty? Not the easiest of trips, but he dug in and ran huge. I still have my doubts about him three weeks from now, but the writers will love his story.

Early forecast...

Pollard's Vision
Tapit
Castledale



Let the Derby talk begin...LOL.

PS...The Bay Shore...Forest Danger...WOW!

Hello CJ

That certainly was an impressive perofrmance from Tapit. A few days ago he was ill and secondly he overcame a speed condusive strip today. This horse is just learning the game. In the stretch his head was cocked into the grandstand and when he put his mind to business he exploded the last 70 yards. I hope Dickerson decides to put the hood on this horse to keep him focus. He was a green through the stretch....I hope he takes to the Churchill surface.

Best regards,
Joe

[Tom]

This is one of the reasons I don't like aqueduct - only one race around two turns, so you never can get a reliable pace variant.
That and the fog - it seems this year there were fogged races wtih no points of call almost every week.
I liked the looks of Tapit, but he will not an accurate pace figure going into the Derby. To me, this track is inexcusable. Might as well have run the Wood in Jersey.

[Niko]

Here's hoping for Cliff's Edge for my future book bet in the first pool (Ministers Eric was the other).
Tapit was very impressive but it's hard to pick until I see the PP's.

[Tom]

After looking at the numbers for the Wood, I am not that impressed wtih Tapet anymore. Unless there was fast early bias, the race looks like it fell apart on my figs.
My pars for G1,G2,G3 races at 9.0 Furlongs at Aqueduct are

47.1 71.0 108.5 106.3


These are the times and the Beyer number. Looks to me like the last part of the race slowed down. If the race gets a Beyer of 105 or higher, then I will assume the pace was very fast, in whcih case I like Tapit less and the palce and show horse a lot more, but not enough to bet them in the Derby. This is a tough call with only one race to look at-the pace variant is a big question in my mind, but two looks at it both downgrade the winner.

[BetHorses!]

I thought the race was slow too but watch it again, Tapit did not run hard at all.

Someone mentioned he needs blinkers but I do not agree and i'm sure they will not add them

[Tuffmug]

Looked at the race several times. They did slow it down between 6f and 8f. All the front Jocks seemed to be waiting to make their move behind Value Plus. How else to explain Cuba in the front pack? Point is, it was run like a turf race and when they did start to race, Tapit was much the best.

Derby is always fast paced early and expect it to be so this time and set up perfectly for a stamina plus pace independent horse like Tapit.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Tuffmug
Derby is always fast paced early and expect it to be so this time

Yeah......tell that to War Emblem.........who knows what the jocks will do. The pundits will have more to say about that in the next few weeks than the Jocks..........if the pundits convince everyone that the pace will be fast....the jocks will go slow and vice versa

[Speed Figure]

These are my Figures for the Wood.

Wood Memorial S. G1 AQU
1C 2C LF SF
2 Tapit 82 100 104 104
5 Master David 96 104 99 103
8 Eddington 96 107 96 103
Race Figures 100 107 97 104

[Shacopate]

What about READ THE FOOTNOTES, who still will probably own the best Beyer (113) going into the Derby?

Has some negatives, but who doesn't.

[Speed Figure]

The bad thing about him is that's a 27 pt drop. He ran a 113 beyer than, ran a 86. Most of the derby winners have not had a drop of more than 4 pts in there last 2 races before the derby.

[cj]

Originally posted by Tom
This is one of the reasons I don't like aqueduct - only one race around two turns, so you never can get a reliable pace variant.
That and the fog - it seems this year there were fogged races wtih no points of call almost every week.
I liked the looks of Tapit, but he will not an accurate pace figure going into the Derby. To me, this track is inexcusable. Might as well have run the Wood in Jersey.

I said this very thing to my brother...they do this every year for the Wood! One two turn race, well other than the first (which noone will have a par for anyway), so not only will the pace variant be suspect, so will the speed figure. Its definitely one reason why I like Aqueduct inner better than the main, and do better there also. Same with Belmont and Saratoga. I generally do very well with Belmont, but Saratoga has many days with only one two turn dirt race...argh!

I mean honestly, who in the hell decided to run a 10.5 furlong race today of all days? Idiotic...

[jotb]

Originally posted by BetHorses!
I thought the race was slow too but watch it again, Tapit did not run hard at all.

Someone mentioned he needs blinkers but I do not agree and i'm sure they will not add them


Can you explain why Tapit does not need blinkers? By the way, did you know that Tapit had a problem changing leads? Just curious why you think that blinkers will not help him.

Joe

[brdman12]

I really expected more from Master David in the Wood. Did you notice how small he is compared to the others? He was on the inside almost the whole trip and should have had more at the finish. Tapit looks big and strong with a nice stretching out run, theres a lot more horse there I think. Another horse to like after this race is Value Plus. I don't know if he's headed for the Derby.

Looks like the Derby is up for grabs. If we can pick a winner we should find some good odds again...

[peakpros]

Originally posted by jotb
Can you explain why Tapit does not need blinkers? By the way, did you know that Tapit had a problem changing leads? Just curious why you think that blinkers will not help him.

Joe


Were did you get your info that Tapit had trouble changing leads?

When i saw the race I thought the same thing.

[Tee]

My take on Tapit having his head cocked to the side during the stretch drive.

From what I could see this was a function of the jock taking a strong hold to keep Tapit on the outside of horses.

Tapit looked to be wanting to drift in especially so when getting past Swingforthefences. Once he was clear of that rival the jock let go, his head straightened up & he got the job done.

I personally don't think the additions of blinkers is necessary at this point in the game. Tapit is obviously running well & doesn't need a new wrinkle thrown into the mix at this stage.

[PaceAdvantage]

teeitup, that was a good observation. The person I was watching the Wood Memorial with pointed out the same thing (jock was trying to keep Tapit from drifting in, thus the head turning to the right)

[JimL]

Anyone know Smarty Jones, pace and speed numbers from yesterday? Looked to me like he was all out. Love that horse!! JimL

[BetHorses!]

Well said Teeitup

Dickinson seemed more surprised than anyone after the race. He did not expect this. It was like man versus boys and he was in position to win at turn and running easy everybody saw it and Durkin called it. Last on backstretch with slow pace what happens when he has a pace to close into, very impressive race and as I said before it just looked like he was running easy out there.

As for Blinkers--if it ain't broken don't fix it

and it ain't broken

[Speed Figure]

Originally posted by JimL
Anyone know Smarty Jones, pace and speed numbers from yesterday? Looked to me like he was all out. Love that horse!! JimL
These are my Figures for the race.

Arkansas Derby. G2 OP
1C 2C LF SF
11 Smarty Jones 103 110 103 106
01 Borrego 100 106 104 104
10 Pro Prado 87 96 111 103
Race Figures 104 110 103 106

[nomadpat]

Hi Speed Figure,
I appreciate it when you post your figures from races. I am curious if you would post the Bluegrass ones?
So far it seems that the Oaklawn field was stronger than the Wood, if that's the case maybe finishing second/third to Smarty Jones would be a good candidate for an in-the-money finish in the Derby at a good price.

Thanks!:)

[Speed Figure]

Toyota Blue Grass S. G1 KEE
1C 2C LF SF
3 The Cliff's Edge 77 100 111 108
6 Lion Heart 104 114 96 107
4 Lime House 102 109 89 101

Race Figures 104 114 97 108

[JimL]

Speed Figure, Thank you! JimL

[Speed Figure]

It's all good JimL!:D