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Tape Reader
03-20-2014, 09:21 PM
Opinions anyone?

Iíll start. Visually, I think a move above S&P (es 1867.25) could produce a sell-off to 1832 or lower.

Címon Guys, this isnít horse racing. No one will rag you if youíre wrong.

PaceAdvantage
03-21-2014, 01:51 AM
You can watch the VIX for starters. It has been locked in a horizontal channel since the start of 2013. With 20-21 on the high end and 11-12 on the low end.

Once it hits 20-21, it ALWAYS goes back to 11-12 before moving back up to 20-21 again. It's in a crucial area right now...if it starts heading back up to 20-21 without first touching 11-12, that might signal the beginning of the serious pullback everyone seems to be waiting for. Then again, you know what usually happens when EVERYONE is waiting for the same thing to happen...just the opposite happens.

And it HAS acted a bit differently recently...it seems to have based at 13.5 (without heading lower to 11-12 area) and is heading back up again, although the last few days throws that into some doubt.

badcompany
03-21-2014, 02:45 PM
The market has been deceptively bad the last few weeks. I've taken a few good hits even though the averages haven't tumbled too much. Today, Even though the market opened up, most of the stocks on my watch list were down with Biotechs in particular getting whacked.

When this happens the indexes tend to follow. I wouldn't be surprised to see SPY take a sharp downward move

That said, the long term trend is still up.

badcompany
03-24-2014, 12:05 PM
Future were up. Market proceeded to tank hard.

Another confirmation that the Futures have no relation to what the market is gonna do.

Shemp Howard
03-24-2014, 10:47 PM
Look for the Fed's misguided intervention to take the S&P to 2350, then look out below.

RaceBookJoe
03-25-2014, 09:56 AM
Future were up. Market proceeded to tank hard.

Another confirmation that the Futures have no relation to what the market is gonna do.

Futures started tumbling a few minutes after the open. Was a great day shorting. Best thing about trading is that you can see things turning as they happen as opposed to the investing mindset.

badcompany
03-26-2014, 03:49 PM
This is what I'm talking about. The market isn't down that much but the percentage of down stocks would indicate a rally bad day.

I think what's happening is that a lot poorly performing stocks have made gains, masking the overall decline.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/C8E3325E-8412-4438-A0D2-74E18306F1CE-11996-000023C0A1C127A3_zps51ba152f.jpg

I'm always in stocks that have been performing well and those have been getting pounded. Gilead Sciences is an example, down over 15% from its recent high.

DJofSD
03-26-2014, 03:52 PM
Over the last couple of days, it seems the favorite explanation is a sector rotation out of BIOTECH which is impacting those indices disproportionately.

I'm not saying it's correct or true but it does seem reasonable, no?

badcompany
03-27-2014, 01:26 PM
I'm seeing a selloff in all sectors, tech especially. The Biotech selloff seems to have run its course, at least for now.

When I made the earlier post, I bought some SDS (2x short S&P), with a tight stop.

It has helped mitigate some of damage from the sell off. It's not a bad strategy if you follow the market closely and can spot selloffs early.

PaceAdvantage
03-27-2014, 01:48 PM
You can watch the VIX for starters. It has been locked in a horizontal channel since the start of 2013. With 20-21 on the high end and 11-12 on the low end.

Once it hits 20-21, it ALWAYS goes back to 11-12 before moving back up to 20-21 again. It's in a crucial area right now...if it starts heading back up to 20-21 without first touching 11-12, that might signal the beginning of the serious pullback everyone seems to be waiting for. Then again, you know what usually happens when EVERYONE is waiting for the same thing to happen...just the opposite happens.

And it HAS acted a bit differently recently...it seems to have based at 13.5 (without heading lower to 11-12 area) and is heading back up again, although the last few days throws that into some doubt.Still hasn't dropped below 13.5 and has headed up the last couple of days...I think this is the most telling aspect of trying to figure out where the market is going...

My market bias is definitely to the down side unless the VIX breaks down below 13.5 and starts heading back to the 11-12 area...

Tape Reader
03-27-2014, 09:31 PM
As soon as the S&P (es) breaks below 1832, my original guestimate, a rally will begin. Possibly guestimate low of 1825.35.

Tape Reader
04-02-2014, 09:56 PM
New high, no way, Iím gone!

Iím buying SPY puts and shorting this new high. I see a potential drop to SPY 183 or lower. Anyone else?

badcompany
04-02-2014, 10:48 PM
Seems like consolidation going on. I'm just sitting tight, for now.