Trip Handicapping (Live)

[traynor]

To understand why trip handicappers generally smile when people advocate watching video replays--regardless of how many times or how closely--watch the second race at Dover Downs today (3/20).

In particular, keep your eye on #7 WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ. Went off at 26/1 and ran an incredible race. Off slow from the outside, dead last, a major move late to finish a fast closing third. $11.20 to show will give you some idea how few thought WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ even had a shot at a piece of the prize.

Hard to do? Yes, indeed. Almost never in the picture until close to the wire, and then only briefly. Something that trip handicappers would hug themsleves with sheer joy at seeing--knowing that the "video" crowd saw little or nothing.

Keep your eyes on WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ in its next race.

[Sea Biscuit]

To understand why trip handicappers generally smile when people advocate watching video replays--regardless of how many times or how closely--watch the second race at Dover Downs today (3/20).

In particular, keep your eye on #7 WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ. Went off at 26/1 and ran an incredible race. Off slow from the outside, dead last, a major move late to finish a fast closing third. $11.20 to show will give you some idea how few thought WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ even had a shot at a piece of the prize.

Hard to do? Yes, indeed. Almost never in the picture until close to the wire, and then only briefly. Something that trip handicappers would hug themsleves with sheer joy at seeing--knowing that the "video" crowd saw little or nothing.

Keep your eyes on WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ in its next race.

What were the internal fractions and the final time of the race?

To properly analyze a race you need them. Was it a killing pace up front and if it was, that 3rd place finish may not that be that impressive. If it was a slow pace with a very fast last quarter I would definitely look at the stretch length gains to properly assess the the effort of the said horse.

Its a game of fractions folks.

[mrroyboy]

Yes replays with fractional analyses is the key

[harness2008]

Well said Biscuit. Any horse that lays off of a faster than par first half to three quarters would be expected to gain in the slower last portion. Seeing that the horse was an extreme longshot to begin with, this would really be the only plausible way for a horse like this to get a piece of the pie.

Not nitpicking what you stated traynor, but if this horse ran against the grain so to speak by having to tip into a faster last portion of the race, then by all means he deserves all of the kudos that you stated but without an assessment of the fractions involved, trip handicapping by itself is rendered useless.

[Sea Biscuit]

Yes replays with fractional analyses is the key

I just saw the replay. The fractions were

28.2-57.2-126.1-154.4

It was a pretty even pace with a mediocre first qtr. He was 3rd over in the outer flow but I failed to see the 'big move' to get him 3rd which Traynor mentioned. It was a good effort but nothing to write home about.

Here is the replay. Click on Mar 20 and then 2nd race

http://replays.robertsstream.com/racereplays/search.php?customerid=94cae4f8767d14baf778d67c1804 b4ee

[bigeastbeast]

Wouldn't you rather have a horse that made two moves in the race:A horse with the early speed to get up in the race early,get knocked backward for whatever reason,then finish with vigor?

[traynor]

I'm not selling anything. It looked good. I mentioned it. Nothing more.

[thespaah]

To understand why trip handicappers generally smile when people advocate watching video replays--regardless of how many times or how closely--watch the second race at Dover Downs today (3/20).

In particular, keep your eye on #7 WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ. Went off at 26/1 and ran an incredible race. Off slow from the outside, dead last, a major move late to finish a fast closing third. $11.20 to show will give you some idea how few thought WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ even had a shot at a piece of the prize.

Hard to do? Yes, indeed. Almost never in the picture until close to the wire, and then only briefly. Something that trip handicappers would hug themsleves with sheer joy at seeing--knowing that the "video" crowd saw little or nothing.

Keep your eyes on WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ in its next race.
Yep...pulled 3/8ths. Flushed cover in CH turn. Parked back stretch. Evenly to wire.
Looked to me like the driver had a bunch of horse.
The winner appeared to be much the best. Driver high lined him for the last 100 yards. No whip needed.
Tell ya what....The #2 Dancing Cruiser got a terrible trip. The 4 spat out the bit at the half and Tetrick( one of the nation's leading drivers) had to hit the brakes.

[thespaah]

What were the internal fractions and the final time of the race?

To properly analyze a race you need them. Was it a killing pace up front and if it was, that 3rd place finish may not that be that impressive. If it was a slow pace with a very fast last quarter I would definitely look at the stretch length gains to properly assess the the effort of the said horse.

Its a game of fractions folks.
57.4 middle half

[Sea Biscuit]

57.4 middle half

The best mile made that day was by Peachys Pistol in the 6th.

He should repeat.

[traynor]

There may be a bit of a lesson here for those who believe they already know everything they need to know about trip handicapping from watching videos and crunching numbers.

Apparently, others noted Wishuponthestarzzz in sufficient numbers to make it 5-2 in the morning line at Philadelphia, despite a big jump up in purse size, but the "smart money" went on Onesportonly. Wishuponthestarzzz was 14-1 at 25 minutes to post, and Onesportonly followed the "smooth" line indicated elsewhere that is indicative of computer-assisted wagering. The payoff on Onesportonly was much better than it would have been if fewer had considered Wishuponthestarzz a "BNT" (Bet Next Time) choice indicative of simplistic, wannabe trip handicappers.

Wishuponthe starzz performed well, nothing impressive, especially for an entry that gave every indication it could win easily. Perhaps not in a race in which it goes off at 3-1, and perhaps not in a race where the smart money is on another entry. No chicanery is suggested or implied--this is business, plain and simple.

I am curious to see how Wishuponthestarzz will do next time out. I didn't bet it in the Philadelphia race because I have learned to treat those computer-assisted wagering app selections with great respect. I didn't see anything impressive about Onesportonly, so passed. I still think Wishuponthestarzzz has the makings of buying lunch at Bellagio's.

[Sea Biscuit]

I am curious to see how Wishuponthestarzz will do next time out.

Ran flat again to come 4th by 3 3/4 lengths at $5.90-1.

[Sea Biscuit]

The best mile made that day was by Peachys Pistol in the 6th.

He should repeat.

I can't understand why Peachys Pistol has not been entered to race since his Mar 20 romp.

[traynor]

I can't understand why Peachys Pistol has not been entered to race since his Mar 20 romp.

Mar272014,DD,R08 Finished 7th.

[Sea Biscuit]

Mar272014,DD,R08 Finished 7th.

Hmmm. I had Peachys Pistol in my VS stable and it failed to inform me on race day. Prolly some computer glich.

[traynor]

Hmmm. I had Peachys Pistol in my VS stable and it failed to inform me on race day. Prolly some computer glich.

That is the kind of glitch that can be expensive, as well as frustrating.

The Lunch Pail, the winner off at 0.20, looked a lot like the prior race for Wishuponthestarzzz--a certain winner with which it would be pointless to compete. Once more, that race had every indication of being little more than an extended workout with a bit of race ritual thrown in, rather than a serious attempt to win.

It is an interesting example of the folly of considering every horse in every race as going all out to win--and of evaluations and comparisons based on such beliefs.

One of the most useful (and profitable) things I have learned is how to distinguish the difference between a serious effort and a workout. Before the race is run. Wishuponthestarzzz is a great example of a horse with good potential that is being primed for a better race, rather than chasing runaway favorites it has little or no chance of beating.

[traynor]

Same scenario. Wishuponthestarzzz ran evenly--at 12/1--in a race with a far superior competitor that won easily by four lengths as the favorite. Did I bet on Wishuponthestarzzz in that race? Yes, I did. Do I regret it? Nah. It looks like intelligent horse management to me. I liked the odds, but in a race in which it was clearly no better than second best, it is no surprise that it did not do anything dramatic. I am really skeptical of the wisdom of drivers (and trainers) of horses that make (popular, but pointless) rushes in the stretch to get place or show.

Wishuponthestarzzz is not an obsession derived from trip handicapping. Wishuponthestarzzz should have won the race that I watched that started this thread. Besides, the odds on Wishuponthestarzzz are getting up into the interesting category. Patience can be rewarding.

[mrroyboy]

Ok it's you standard follow up horse. A lot of money can be made with these types of horses. What is your point?

[Sea Biscuit]

Same scenario. Wishuponthestarzzz ran evenly--at 12/1--in a race with a far superior competitor that won easily by four lengths as the favorite. Did I bet on Wishuponthestarzzz in that race? Yes, I did. Do I regret it? Nah. It looks like intelligent horse management to me. I liked the odds, but in a race in which it was clearly no better than second best, it is no surprise that it did not do anything dramatic. I am really skeptical of the wisdom of drivers (and trainers) of horses that make (popular, but pointless) rushes in the stretch to get place or show.

Wishuponthestarzzz is not an obsession derived from trip handicapping. Wishuponthestarzzz should have won the race that I watched that started this thread. Besides, the odds on Wishuponthestarzzz are getting up into the interesting category. Patience can be rewarding.

Traynor Me thinks you're smitten with Wishuponthestarzzz. Can cost you money. I have been a victim myself many times before.Get over it

http://i1099.photobucket.com/albums/g387/secretariat3/Fallininlove_zps79ec5707.jpeg (http://s1099.photobucket.com/user/secretariat3/media/Fallininlove_zps79ec5707.jpeg.html)

[RaceTrackDaddy]

The one thing that harness racing, greyhounds and flats have in common is trip handicapping.

I can say that in my lifetime I handicapped based on speed (time including last quarter and last half), Class (Classification) and Trip Handicapping.

For trip handicapping, Greyhounds is the one that it helps the most. Harness racing is close behind in second and not as much help to me personally via the thoroughbred racing. That one is more of a speed with respect to surface problem as they are constantly moving from surface (turf, dirt, artificial) and so many more difference distances.

Each sport has it's challenges but the topic here is trip handicapping. Seeing a horse come late with a lot of speed is valuable but he must meet the parameters of the next race he is in as he will be at the mercy of the pace.

I personally love to watch videos but mostly I am looking for one thing in particular; a troubled trip to a horse with pace. More often that not, they will come back and race excellent the very next week. You can see on the video the horses that got into trouble in the lane with no room to move and they are laid back in the bike trying to avoid running into the horses in front of them. On average I say you might be lucky to catch about three strong plays in a month per track. If it happened to a claimer, most times the connections will raised them in claiming price next out. I preferred those conditioned horses who will be facing the same bunch of horses next out.

In greyhounds (where I used it every race) you have to be aware of the dog's pattern of breaking from the box and which paths they prefer to race on, inside near the rail, mid track or wide. Using that you can pick up potential collisions soon out the break or at the first turn.

I really think trip handicapping is best used as part of an overall handicapping plan that would include the class and speed in determining a winner. It does not always go as planned but those times it does, it makes you smile like the butcher's dog.

[Sea Biscuit]

The one thing that harness racing, greyhounds and flats have in common is trip handicapping.

I can say that in my lifetime I handicapped based on speed (time including last quarter and last half), Class (Classification) and Trip Handicapping.

For trip handicapping, Greyhounds is the one that it helps the most. Harness racing is close behind in second and not as much help to me personally via the thoroughbred racing. That one is more of a speed with respect to surface problem as they are constantly moving from surface (turf, dirt, artificial) and so many more difference distances.

Each sport has it's challenges but the topic here is trip handicapping. Seeing a horse come late with a lot of speed is valuable but he must meet the parameters of the next race he is in as he will be at the mercy of the pace.

I personally love to watch videos but mostly I am looking for one thing in particular; a troubled trip to a horse with pace. More often that not, they will come back and race excellent the very next week. You can see on the video the horses that got into trouble in the lane with no room to move and they are laid back in the bike trying to avoid running into the horses in front of them. On average I say you might be lucky to catch about three strong plays in a month per track. If it happened to a claimer, most times the connections will raised them in claiming price next out. I preferred those conditioned horses who will be facing the same bunch of horses next out.

In greyhounds (where I used it every race) you have to be aware of the dog's pattern of breaking from the box and which paths they prefer to race on, inside near the rail, mid track or wide. Using that you can pick up potential collisions soon out the break or at the first turn.

I really think trip handicapping is best used as part of an overall handicapping plan that would include the class and speed in determining a winner. It does not always go as planned but those times it does, it makes you smile like the butcher's dog.

Speaking of troubled trips, watch #9 Evening Of Pleasure in this race video. and put him in your VS stable for next time out.

http://bcove.me/xd36u87u

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Speaking of troubled trips, watch #9 Evening Of Pleasure in this race video. and put him in your VS stable for next time out.

http://bcove.me/xd36u87u
Thank you Sea Biscuit...added...Sylvian was locked with a ton of pace..at 10/1 to boot....that is the prime example of why we watch videos...

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Hey Sea Biscuit:
Got one for ya.
Was watching the 15th today at the Meadows and it might have been a different result if Rockin Hill (# 1) was able to find a way through. He was laying off the pace and came late leaving the last turn. He ran upon the back of the tiring leader and had to change lanes but had no room as they were 8 across at the wire. The horse was 60/1. Add him to the list to bet next out.

Attached is the captured picture from the video.

[Sea Biscuit]

Hey Sea Biscuit:
Got one for ya.
Was watching the 15th today at the Meadows and it might have been a different result if Rockin Hill (# 1) was able to find a way through. He was laying off the pace and came late leaving the last turn. He ran upon the back of the tiring leader and had to change lanes but had no room as they were 8 across at the wire. The horse was 60/1. Add him to the list to bet next out.

Attached is the captured picture from the video.

Good one RTD. In my VS stable now.:ThmbUp:

[LottaKash]

For the ones who are not as far along, I would caution you about taking too much from a troubled looking trip....I used to be the sort that would think that I had a real "goodie" going for me, after witnessing the "so called" troubled running line....It bit me in the butt, much more than a time or two, using that line of thinking...

Since, my bottom line is this: I never put too much stock in the "troubled trip" unless the horse was in "good shape/form" to begin with....Using this type, the in form horse, is often the key to the mint when discovering a troubled-line, especially when the horse is well placed and in with horses that he can compete and beat....

No excused races for an "out of shape" horse, for me....A horse has to earn that right, imo...Sure, an out of shape horse with a troubled line may well improve off of that running line and race, but generally not enough to send it in, in the next outing, imo...

[Sea Biscuit]

The best mile made that day was by Peachys Pistol in the 6th.

He should repeat.

Peachys Pistol misses his next start at DD and the trainer ships PP to Harrington for a nice 10-1 score and paid $22.60.

No I didn't bet him. Got very busy with Woodbine and completely forgot about the horse.

I'll add him to my collection of fishes that got away.

http://www.trackmaster.com/cgi-bin/hchxml2html.cgi?track=HAR&date=20140421&race=3&cardid=6&key=ba4f1763d21f991e3f1847068646856b

[RaceTrackDaddy]

For the ones who are not as far along, I would caution you about taking too much from a troubled looking trip....I used to be the sort that would think that I had a real "goodie" going for me, after witnessing the "so called" troubled running line....It bit me in the butt, much more than a time or two, using that line of thinking...

Since, my bottom line is this: I never put too much stock in the "troubled trip" unless the horse was in "good shape/form" to begin with....Using this type, the in form horse, is often the key to the mint when discovering a troubled-line, especially when the horse is well placed and in with horses that he can compete and beat....

No excused races for an "out of shape" horse, for me....A horse has to earn that right, imo...Sure, an out of shape horse with a troubled line may well improve off of that running line and race, but generally not enough to send it in, in the next outing, imo...
My rule of thumb is that once they make my troubled trip list, bet them for their next three starts and then jump off. Once they win, remove them from the list. I have found that they usually put forth their best effort in the first two starts. Sometimes they draw into a bad post and will take their shot in a race with a more favorable post. I had a few to come back to bite me by winning two of their first three races but I was not on them but overall, it seems that they will win once in three races more times than not. At horses bringing in decent odds winning at 50 percent is worth the risk for me.

[Sinner369]

For the ones who are not as far along, I would caution you about taking too much from a troubled looking trip....I used to be the sort that would think that I had a real "goodie" going for me, after witnessing the "so called" troubled running line....It bit me in the butt, much more than a time or two, using that line of thinking...

Since, my bottom line is this: I never put too much stock in the "troubled trip" unless the horse was in "good shape/form" to begin with....Using this type, the in form horse, is often the key to the mint when discovering a troubled-line, especially when the horse is well placed and in with horses that he can compete and beat....

No excused races for an "out of shape" horse, for me....A horse has to earn that right, imo...Sure, an out of shape horse with a troubled line may well improve off of that running line and race, but generally not enough to send it in, in the next outing, imo...

Have to agree with LottaKash..........Evenin of Pleasure (odds of 10/1) was trapped and he looks like he had lots of step but the horse was moving up in class, hence that's why he got the 10/1 odds..........he still can win next time out but the horse will be going against tougher horses so be aware!

[traynor]

Phi 3rd Wishuponthestarzzz 4.20

Given the PPs and odds in preceding races, one might wonder why so much money went on this entry in this race. Nice race, though. Easy win. Easy exacta, especially for an entry 5/1 in the morning line.

[Ray2000]

Thank you Sea Biscuit...added...Sylvian was locked with a ton of pace..at 10/1 to boot....that is the prime example of why we watch videos...


Sea, RTD LK


you guys were first to mention :

Evenin of Pleasure $ 164.30

any one have it?

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Sea, RTD LK


you guys were first to mention :

Evenin of Pleasure $ 164.30

any one have it?
I caught him a couple times with the most recent the race he finished second to State Treasurer a few races back. Last night was too busy with my greyhounds (had a decent last couple nights). Did not notice it until I later checked the results. Seemed the inside path opened up for him where usually he was blocked in. Great price, it is the ones that got away that we remember most and he is going into the memory banks for sure.

[LottaKash]

Sea, RTD LK


you guys were first to mention :

Evenin of Pleasure $ 164.30

any one have it?

Nah, I didn't have him....I didn't see him winning off of any item on my own scorecard....

Still, a win is a win, good for him and anyone that took a flyer on him....:jump:

[Sea Biscuit]

Sea, RTD LK


you guys were first to mention :

Evenin of Pleasure $ 164.30

any one have it?

Nope Did not even consider him.

Had the exacta box of the 2 horses he beat.