Rebel Stakes question for CJ

[Valuist]

CJ-

I saw your Timeform column on the figure for the Rebel. A great read for any handicapper. Those of us that do, or used to do, our own figures understand the need to "cut a race loose". That may well have been the case this past Saturday. You had mentioned that there's an algorhythm to project figs for the first 4 finishers. I would think normally that would be enough.

There's only one thing that would make me think there's a possibility the race didn't need to be cut loose: the 7 1/4 length gap from 4th to 5th. In most races that are stronger than par, there's a gap somewhere. But usually its either first to 2nd, or 2nd to 3rd. Not very often you can see the top 4 move forward strongly. I would normally view that skeptically but that big gap gives me reason to think that was a possibility.

Did this gap from 4th to 5th enter the thinking at all in the projection of the figure?

[cj]

CJ-

I saw your Timeform column on the figure for the Rebel. A great read for any handicapper. Those of us that do, or used to do, our own figures understand the need to "cut a race loose". That may well have been the case this past Saturday. You had mentioned that there's an algorhythm to project figs for the first 4 finishers. I would think normally that would be enough.

There's only one thing that would make me think there's a possibility the race didn't need to be cut loose: the 7 1/4 length gap from 4th to 5th. In most races that are stronger than par, there's a gap somewhere. But usually its either first to 2nd, or 2nd to 3rd. Not very often you can see the top 4 move forward strongly. I would normally view that skeptically but that big gap gives me reason to think that was a possibility.

Did this gap from 4th to 5th enter the thinking at all in the projection of the figure?

I did look at the replay and full chart, as I always do for big races. The thing with those in the back half of the field is they just weren't in the same league. Kobe's Back had run a very good sprint last time, but completely bombed for the second time in a route.

I'd be more inclined to believe the top 4 ran big races if it wasn't for all the bumping. All of the horses still ran bigger figures than they had in recent races. It isn't like I'm saying they ran slow or aren't very good, I just don't think they ran a race where all four would have moved right to the top of the division.

I read the Beyer figures. He basically agrees with Rebel, it didn't get much of a figure. The disagreement I have is with the Razorback and Azeri. He has Golden Lad destroying a G3 race for older males getting a 100. Something is off there in my opinion.

[Valuist]

I did look at the replay and full chart, as I always do for big races. The thing with those in the back half of the field is they just weren't in the same league. Kobe's Back had run a very good sprint last time, but completely bombed for the second time in a route.

I'd be more inclined to believe the top 4 ran big races if it wasn't for all the bumping. All of the horses still ran bigger figures than they had in recent races. It isn't like I'm saying they ran slow or aren't very good, I just don't think they ran a race where all four would have moved right to the top of the division.

I read the Beyer figures. He basically agrees with Rebel, it didn't get much of a figure. The disagreement I have is with the Razorback and Azeri. He has Golden Lad destroying a G3 race for older males getting a 100. Something is off there in my opinion.

Maybe they didn't. And the off track adds to the ambiguity. And I'm not sure your number is wrong. We'll have to see how they run in the Ark Derby to get a better idea. The bumping part of the equation is a good point. If Tapiture doesn't get bumped, maybe he wins by a length and a half and the race figure becomes even stronger.

[classhandicapper]

Kobe's Back didn't look comfortable at any point in the race. He probably didn't like the wet track and/or the turn. I think that race was a toss for him.