Can you recommend a book for visual handicapping

[cashmachine]

I am trying to handicap a race by viewing video of recent trackworks and then I am trying to select a horse in best condition. I am losing badly, and I realized that I just don't know what I am doing, I just don't know what to look for on those videos. Can you guys recommend me a book there they describe how to determine current condition of a horse visually?

[Stillriledup]

Trackworks? You are viewing morning workouts?

Go to youtube and start watching some videos from Andy Serling, they're called "trips and traps" Andy is a race watching expert and he talks about the race as you watch it. Not sure if this is what you're looking for, but its free and its a good place to start.

[pandy]

One of the best trip handicappers I've ever met is Paul Mellos, a long time New York handicapper and bettor, very bright and articulate guy. On the American Turf Monthly website they sell his video How To Learn Trip Handicapping from a seminar he did years ago.




HOW TO LEARN TRIP HANDICAPPING - DVD

The parimutuel value of trip handicapping has increased dramatically in recent years as more and more handicappers narrow their focus to figures and speed rating. Paul Mellos conducted the first-ever seminar on trip handicapping. You'll learn to watch for subtle events in a race that can work to your benefit in the future: track biases, slow/fast paces, troubled starts, hidden moves and more. DVD

[fmolf]

I am trying to handicap a race by viewing video of recent trackworks and then I am trying to select a horse in best condition. I am losing badly, and I realized that I just don't know what I am doing, I just don't know what to look for on those videos. Can you guys recommend me a book there they describe how to determine current condition of a horse visually?
there is a book called "The Body Language of Horses" by Bonnie Leadbetter in it she talks about all the little signs to look for in the paddock and post parade .She details both positive signs and negative ones.Another author to read is Trillis Parker, her best work is called "Horses Talk".Try looking up anything by Joe Takach,he is also an accomplished paddock handicapper and body language expert.He has written books as well as articles available on line, in some instances for free.I hope this is what you are looking for.One tip i will offer to you is that it is very hard to paddock handicap off the telivision or internet,I have had success with this method being on track though.I still handicap the old fashioned way and use paddock inspection to either help me make the bet or get me off the horse i liked on paper and pass the race.

[Clocker]

Try looking up anything by Joe Takach,he is also an accomplished paddock handicapper and body language expert.He has written books as well as articles available on line, in some instances for free.


http://www.joe-takach.com/_Recent_Articles/_recent_articles.html

[cashmachine]

Thank you guys very much, you are very helpful! Now I have a lot of information to think about. :jump:

fmolf, why do you think it is very difficult to handicap from internet? I am not watching paddock activity as I don't have access to it, I am watching records of horse training.

[goatchaser]

I'm a Tripper.....But usually only on races I watch...which usually means the race I'm betting or some race I just feel like watching. In Other words..I don't go around and watch each days card at each track or even follow one track. I bet one today who ran 2nd at 8-1 at Gulf.

[crestridge]

You might try, "Watching Racehorses", A Guide to Betting on Behavior by Geoffrey Hutson; an Aussie guy who is a animal behavior scientist.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Everybody else mentioned great books or links to stuff.I just want to add this is an area I want to improve my skills on as well and I found Ledbetter's book at a book sale this winter for $1.Every city's library system has seasonal book sales.Usually I find stuff under the sports heading but found a goldmine under the "Animals" heading this January.Check it out.It's fun even though Amazon is easier!Just check your city's library websites for locations.

[BIG49010]

Attend the races live on days when they have a Graded race, and look closely at all the top horses. It takes years to get a sharp eye, but live racing is the only way to get a real feel for what a true sharp horse looks like.

[cashmachine]

You might try, "Watching Racehorses", A Guide to Betting on Behavior by Geoffrey Hutson; an Aussie guy who is a animal behavior scientist.

Thank you!!!

[DJofSD]

You can add to your understanding by observing horses at the track and elsewhere.

One suggestion for observing on track is spending time around the saddling area but not just for the hub-bub for the next race. Also observe the younger horses that are usually being walked through the area as a training exercise.

If you can find a pasture with horses in it, spend a couple of hours watching how they interact.

[BIG49010]

You can add to your understanding by observing horses at the track and elsewhere.

One suggestion for observing on track is spending time around the saddling area but not just for the hub-bub for the next race. Also observe the younger horses that are usually being walked through the area as a training exercise.

If you can find a pasture with horses in it, spend a couple of hours watching how they interact. This is very good suggestion, and made me think of another spot which is the gap where they bring the horses in to the paddock. They have made it easier these days by putting a number on the handler as they walk in. You can see who is fractious, dull, etc.. before they have tack and a jockey on.

I will say this probably is the most difficult subject to master, and I have watched and read most of the material and you still have horses that look bad and win. So a comprehensive approach is needed, and this is just one of the pieces.

[DJofSD]

This is very good suggestion, and made me think of another spot which is the gap where they bring the horses in to the paddock. They have made it easier these days by putting a number on the handler as they walk in. You can see who is fractious, dull, etc.. before they have tack and a jockey on.

I will say this probably is the most difficult subject to master, and I have watched and read most of the material and you still have horses that look bad and win. So a comprehensive approach is needed, and this is just one of the pieces.
Yes, any part of the walk-over is a great chance to get a better look at the each horse.

A small list of things you can observe: shoes, hoofs, tendons in the lower leg if not wrapped, sweat on the belly, etc. There is much, much more.

[Robert Goren]

I would like to see a book about what Maggie talks about with side by side pictures showing the differences.

[DJofSD]

RG, that would be excellent, however, being able to get good photographs to illustrate the differences is actually not that easy. I would put it on the same level as photographing food.

[whodoyoulike]

Attend the races live on days when they have a Graded race, and look closely at all the top horses. It takes years to get a sharp eye, but live racing is the only way to get a real feel for what a true sharp horse looks like.

This is great advice. You don't have to do this forever. You'll see the behavior and demeanor of confident horses and how horses act when not at their best. Keep in mind IMO that this is only a small factor in your handicapping process. In most races there are several good looking horses.

[Clocker]

RG, that would be excellent, however, being able to get good photographs to illustrate the differences is actually not that easy. I would put it on the same level as photographing food.

Earlier in the thread, I linked to a series of articles by Joe Takach describing in detail a lot of good and bad points about a horse's appearance. Joe has a DVD called "Beat the Beam" that uses track videos of paddocks and post parades to illustrate all of those things in great detail, showing good and bad appearance. It is old and hard to find, but far and away the best thing I have ever seen on the topic.

[DJofSD]

Earlier in the thread, I linked to a series of articles by Joe Takach describing in detail a lot of good and bad points about a horse's appearance. Joe has a DVD called "Beat the Beam" that uses track videos of paddocks and post parades to illustrate all of those things in great detail, showing good and bad appearance. It is old and hard to find, but far and away the best thing I have ever seen on the topic.
I know Joe. I'm familiar with him and his product. Thanks.

[GaryG]

This is not a book but a DVD:

Trip Handicapping by Dan Illman from drf

[BIG49010]

I would like to see a book about what Maggie talks about with side by side pictures showing the differences.

Perhaps not a book, but a series of handicapping tips on NYRA, like "Trips and traps".

Another way to get a good idea about how horses look and move, is check out sale horses that win that are in the 2 yr old in training sales. Most have video on-line.

[cashmachine]

Keep in mind IMO that this is only a small factor in your handicapping process. In most races there are several good looking horses.

Yes, I figured this out. I also developing a computer program inspired by Benter's paper, and later it will be a symbiosis between statistical program and recommendations of human expert (visual handicapper). But currently my visual handicapping is no good (somehow I manage to select horses worse than random choice) and I need to drastically improve it before I can marry it with the statistics.

[Some_One]

Did Tiger Woods read any books on how to improve his swing?

[Clocker]

Did Tiger Woods read any books on how to improve his swing?

You don't need to read books when you can hire a swing coach. Tiger has had a personal coach throughout his career, and still has one today.

[barn32]

If the horse takes a crap, he wont make the lap, avoid the trap-- don't bet'em.

[Greyfox]

Earlier in the thread, I linked to a series of articles by Joe Takach describing in detail a lot of good and bad points about a horse's appearance. Joe has a DVD called "Beat the Beam" that uses track videos of paddocks and post parades to illustrate all of those things in great detail, showing good and bad appearance. It is old and hard to find, but far and away the best thing I have ever seen on the topic.

Joe Takach has put out top information and products. :ThmbUp:
The web site that you posted should be a must visit.
Bonnie Ledbetter and Chris McCarron had a video out entitled "Horses Talk" that I was able to pick up at a library.

Also here's a couple of elementary videos on physicality and one on trip handicapping.

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[traynor]

Horse's Talk was Trillis Parker's video. The Bonnie Ledbetter and Chris McCarron video was The Body Language of Horses.

[Greyfox]

Horse's Talk was Trillis Parker's video. The Bonnie Ledbetter and Chris McCarron video was The Body Language of Horses.

Thank you. :ThmbUp: It's been many years since I viewed both of them.

[Magister Ludi]

Mr. Benter incorporated visual handicapping in his model and others use it in theirs. I have no use for it in mine though proper interpretation of pre-race infrared scans of the entries may add new information to a model.

[cashmachine]

I have no use for it in mine though proper interpretation of pre-race infrared scans of the entries may add new information to a model.

What is "pre-race infrared scans of the entries"? Can you elaborate on it? How do you actually accomplish it in real world with limited resources?

[turninforhome10]

I would highly suggest that you start with learning confirmation and what a horse flaws means to it's racing ability. I know I will hear from the non-physical gang on this one but knowing what you are looking for before judging what you looking at would be a good start. pogEgbH6MYU
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Granted these videos are designed for buying but it should give you a good baseline. Hope these help.

[dnlgfnk]

Joe Takach has put out top information and products. :ThmbUp:
The web site that you posted should be a must visit.
Bonnie Ledbetter and Chris McCarron had a video out entitled "Horses Talk" that I was able to pick up at a library.

Also here's a couple of elementary videos on physicality and one on trip handicapping.

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There's nothing in Kristufek's "Night School" on trips that couldn't be gained from Beyer's "The Winning Horseplayer". Also, Joe's guests don't look old enough (Beyer's guru "Charlie" said it takes "20 years to become a master") to contribute anything beyond the seemingly hidden, but actually obvious factors often mentioned nowadays--wide on the first turn, altered running styles, traffic, closers forced to rally wide, jockey reserving easy winner, etc. Virtually everyone except Jon White (whose selections are almost always his morning line favorites) is on to it.

Almost everyday at every track, there are races where inside speedsters hustle for the lead over many strides and for a lengthy part of the first quarter, but nearing the middle of the first turn an outside horse will range up and challenge or press the leader(s) by the backstretch. The outer horse will have begun his move significantly later than the leader while still within the opening quarter mile, but give the superficial impression that he is encountering a tough trip to unsuspecting players.

I'm not stating that it is easy to detect, but the suspicion begins with a horse earning a lower speed figure than his rivals. I would encourage the OP to remain analytical for awhile while focusing on two aspects when evaluating results:1)position on the track = a subtle outside bias on straightaways (influencing but not dictating winners, most revealing in a horse with sexy outside races who draws inside today, or subpar efforts inside and drawing outside today) devilishly combined with the mathematical advantage of saving ground on the turns, and 2) the degree to which a horse used energy before the final turn or so, explaining his finish.

It's quite possible that I am simply less skilled than successful visual handicappers. But I suspect the OP may end up like me if he dives into race-watching after initially being modestly successful analytically. Arriving at Oaklawn Park in the winter of '81 after a large score further north the previous fall, I was ready to launch my trip handicapping career after being somewhat frustrated with conventional speed handicapping. I prepared for the first race, intent on watching all the jockeys' hands and positions of all the horses on the turn. Roughly 100 seconds later, and thinking I had to instantly decide on horses to upgrade next out after Justin's Jellybean rallied to win the opener going away, I asked myself, "What was I supposed to learn from that? Three weeks and 175 races later, I headed home.

[Mike A]

Attend the races live on days when they have a Graded race, and look closely at all the top horses. It takes years to get a sharp eye, but live racing is the only way to get a real feel for what a true sharp horse looks like.

doesn't "take years to get a sharp eye"

[cashmachine]

doesn't "take years to get a sharp eye"

Which books did you read while training your eye?

[thaskalos]

I am trying to handicap a race by viewing video of recent trackworks and then I am trying to select a horse in best condition. I am losing badly, and I realized that I just don't know what I am doing, I just don't know what to look for on those videos. Can you guys recommend me a book there they describe how to determine current condition of a horse visually?

Did you start off as a "visual" handicapper from the very beginning...or did you start with the more "conventional" handicapping approach, and then gravitated to visual handicapping later on?

If you are not properly schooled in the conventional handicapping fundamentals...then I can't see how you will be able to make sense of trip handicapping. To properly assess the trips of the horses, you must first be well-versed on the topics of pace and class. The trips of these horses do not materialize in a vacuum; they are intimately related to other circumstances present in the race. A horse may LOOK as if it's taking much the worst of it as it rallies 7-wide around the far turn...but the severity of this overland trip depends on the pace of the race. Are the front runners tiring from an exhausting early pace as our closer makes his wide move...or is the pace leisurely -- with the front runners still left with enough in the tank to fight back, and keep our closer wide all the way around?

We spot a horse that had a horrible trip, and we make a note to play the horse right back in its next race...but if this horse finds itself at a higher class level next out...then the horse WON'T win the race -- horrible trip notwithstanding. Horses run differently at different class levels.

People visit the paddock and think that they can spot well-conditioned horses on looks alone...but there are plenty of horses who look uninspiring all the time -- and their lackluster looks do not prevent them from running sharp races. Physicality handicapping is most effective when the horseplayer is on the scene on a regular basis...so he can compare the physical state of the horses to the way they NORMALLY look before their races.

Players love to point out the times when they've been able to select a winning longshot on looks alone...but they conveniently forget the much more frequent times when a horse who looks like Secretariat is no-where to be found at the finish.

Horseplayers who look at trip and physicality handicapping as if they are some sort of "shortcut", are in for a rude awakening...IMO.

[cashmachine]

Did you start off as a "visual" handicapper from the very beginning...or did you start with the more "conventional" handicapping approach, and then gravitated to visual handicapping later on?

If you are not properly schooled in the conventional handicapping fundamentals...then I can't see how you will be able to make sense of trip handicapping.


I started by trying to create a statistical program that finds overlays based on some very simple statistics like rating of horse, weight, post position etc. I did not have a clue what handicappers do to pick a horse. I combined a bunch of indicators and started betting; my program is not profitable yet: on the last 349 bets I achieved loss of 9.71% (track take is 18%). I realized that I will progress faster if I actually learn something about horse racing and I got a copy of Ainslie's complete guide to thoroughbred racing because somebody told me that this book is like a Bible to handicapping.

Ainslie said that even best experts win at most 40% of their bets, and the reason why they lose is that in 60% of cases race doesn't go as expected primary because of poor condition of their selection or unexpectedly great condition of one of their rivals. So I decided to add assessment of current condition of a horse by human expert as an indicator into my program. I understand that visual handicapping is not 100% correct, but I don't need such a precision to improve my program, all I need is to be just a little bit better than random choice.

[DeltaLover]

I
Ainslie said that even best experts win at most 40% of their bets, and the reason why they lose is that in 60% of cases race doesn't go as expected primary because of poor condition of their selection or unexpectedly great condition of one of their rivals.

I disagree with what Ainslie says. What percentage of bets are won has nothing to do with expertise when it comes to horse betting.

[Bettowin]

Fun videos to watch. Conformation is a big part of a nice filly and Ella has it:)

[Greyfox]

There's nothing in Kristufek's "Night School" on trips that couldn't be gained from Beyer's "The Winning Horseplayer". .

Possibly true.
But the video can be watched in 8 and 1/3 minutes.
How long does it take to read Andy's book?

[thaskalos]

Possibly true.
But the video can be watched in 8 and 1/3 minutes.
How long does it take to read Andy's book?

Yes...but there was plenty in the "Winning Horseplayer" that wasn't even mentioned by Kristufek. :)

[Greyfox]

Yes...but there was plenty in the "Winning Horseplayer" that wasn't even mentioned by Kristufek. :)

A 192 page book should have lots more. :)

[thaskalos]

A 192 page book should have lots more. :)

Good book...btw. :ThmbUp:

[dnlgfnk]

Possibly true.
But the video can be watched in 8 and 1/3 minutes.
How long does it take to read Andy's book?

Hi, Greyfox.

I meant that 30 years later, nothing new is being said regarding the manner in which a horse's performance is affected by the way a race develops. The overarching factor is the amount of energy a horse uses up before he needs to make a sustained run to the wire. That's the area I would suggest the OP needs to investigate.

[cashmachine]

Good book...btw. :ThmbUp:

Added to my wish list :cool:

[cashmachine]

That's the area I would suggest the OP needs to investigate.

What is "OP"?

[dnlgfnk]

"Original poster", i.e., thread starter.

[traynor]

I started by trying to create a statistical program that finds overlays based on some very simple statistics like rating of horse, weight, post position etc. I did not have a clue what handicappers do to pick a horse. I combined a bunch of indicators and started betting; my program is not profitable yet: on the last 349 bets I achieved loss of 9.71% (track take is 18%). I realized that I will progress faster if I actually learn something about horse racing and I got a copy of Ainslie's complete guide to thoroughbred racing because somebody told me that this book is like a Bible to handicapping.

Ainslie said that even best experts win at most 40% of their bets, and the reason why they lose is that in 60% of cases race doesn't go as expected primary because of poor condition of their selection or unexpectedly great condition of one of their rivals. So I decided to add assessment of current condition of a horse by human expert as an indicator into my program. I understand that visual handicapping is not 100% correct, but I don't need such a precision to improve my program, all I need is to be just a little bit better than random choice.

You may be better off continuing in your original direction (with course adjustments based on pragmatic results in your own studies and research) than you would be trying to imitate what others are (as in "almost everyone else" is) doing.

There are factors influencing the outcome of horse races that most seem either unaware of, or are unable to use (for one reason or another). Discovering one or more of those factors might give you an advantage that 20 years of relentless pursuit of the (98% losing) strategies used by others may fail to do.

[traynor]

You might find it rewarding to poke around a bit about Jim Selvidge and his attempts (way back) to set up a network of visual handicappers onsite at various tracks. There are probably a number of people on this forum (or other forums) who were either involved with or aware of the development of that endeavor. His wife, Trillis Parker, wrote Horses Talk and developed the video of the same title, arguably the most useful single source for visual inspection handicapping information available.

The significant element in Selvidge's approach was the use of a rating system similar in principle to that used in various text and speech coding methods.

[cashmachine]

You may be better off continuing in your original direction (with course adjustments based on pragmatic results in your own studies and research) than you would be trying to imitate what others are (as in "almost everyone else" is) doing.

There are factors influencing the outcome of horse races that most seem either unaware of, or are unable to use (for one reason or another). Discovering one or more of those factors might give you an advantage that 20 years of relentless pursuit of the (98% losing) strategies used by others may fail to do.

I understand that without something unique and original I won't make it into the black. But doing it all from scratch would take very long time, it is like make children to figure it out themselves instead of going to school. It took humankind 2 millenniums to invent stuff that children learn in 10 years.

I read several threads on best books on this site and added 52 books to my wish list. People accumulated quite a bit of knowledge about handicapping and it would be foolish to ignore it. I understand that no book will give me ready to use technique, I am not looking for one. I treat advices from books as assignments for research projects; anyway I collect my own statistics on everything and induce my own conclusions from data. I do not use anything but raw data, no speed points, no nothing. All I need from books is a hint which factors could be related to each other. Even if I investigate same pair of factors as everyone else I will come up with different results because it make huge difference how you treat non-linearity in the indicators and many other small things.

[Magister Ludi]

I read several threads on best books on this site and added 52 books to my wish list.

Do as the sapient Mr. Thomas Sapio did and read all of the posts on this forum by Trifecta Mike. I have no doubt that there is far more useful information in them than in the 52 books combined.

[raybo]

Do as the sapient Mr. Thomas Sapio did and read all of the posts on this forum by Trifecta Mike. I have no doubt that there is far more useful information in them than in the 52 books combined.

Great advice, if you can understand them. :bang:

[traynor]

I understand that without something unique and original I won't make it into the black. But doing it all from scratch would take very long time, it is like make children to figure it out themselves instead of going to school. It took humankind 2 millenniums to invent stuff that children learn in 10 years.

I read several threads on best books on this site and added 52 books to my wish list. People accumulated quite a bit of knowledge about handicapping and it would be foolish to ignore it. I understand that no book will give me ready to use technique, I am not looking for one. I treat advices from books as assignments for research projects; anyway I collect my own statistics on everything and induce my own conclusions from data. I do not use anything but raw data, no speed points, no nothing. All I need from books is a hint which factors could be related to each other. Even if I investigate same pair of factors as everyone else I will come up with different results because it make huge difference how you treat non-linearity in the indicators and many other small things.

Good luck with that. Unless you have access to raw data that no one else has, your results are likely to be much like that of everyone else who has even basic computer skills.

As for which factors are related, the same caveat applies--that is exactly the road countless others (some quite obsessive) have travelled, with minimal success.

It might be more useful to either have new data that others lack, or to connect data points in new ways. For the latter, even a simplistic app like WEKA can get you started.

If repeating the old ways of looking at the same data were profitable, everyone with basic computer skills would be making lots of money. That does not seem to be the case.

[SandyW]

I am trying to handicap a race by viewing video of recent trackworks and then I am trying to select a horse in best condition. I am losing badly, and I realized that I just don't know what I am doing, I just don't know what to look for on those videos. Can you guys recommend me a book there they describe how to determine current condition of a horse visually?

This may be off topic by a little bit, but I am sure this will also help you.
The Daily Racing Form sells an excellent DVD , it is called "Trip Handicapping" by Dan Illman.

This DVD is as far as I'm concerned will lead anyone that watches replays in the right direction.
It runs 105 minutes and takes you thru all aspects of what to look for when watching replays.
Well worth the money that I paid for it in 2008.
Go to DRF store under multimedia and you will find it the DVD on sale for half of what I paid for it.

[Sapio]

Do as the sapient Mr. Thomas Sapio did and read all of the posts on this forum by Trifecta Mike. I have no doubt that there is far more useful information in them than in the 52 books combined.

Hi Magister Ludi

I agree. The content of TM's posts are beyond the usual.

As a recreational horse player for 45 years, I've learned more about racing data analysis and meta handicapping reading TM's posts than I have in the past years.

A bit about myself. I am a graduate of Cooper Union and also have a masters degree in engineering from Columbia Univ. My discipline is in signal theory and information systems.

Recently retired from full-time emplyment to part-time consulting work. Now I have the time to pursue horse racing more seriously.

What I like about TM's posts (aside from the mathematical complexity) is that he opens "doors" and dares you to enter. He obviously posted about concepts that interested him in no particular order.

What I don't like about TM's posts is that he'd close that "door", unless you could see what was beyond.

I've spent over a month searching and printing his posts and putting them in some order. Not an easy task. But once accomplished, the amount of information is enormous. I've had to break out some old textbooks and get some new ones (especially in Bayesian Statistics and Bayesian Nets). Aside from Kalman Filters, I am not well versed in Bayesian Methods (fortunately I do have friends that are). So, I am learning.

TM is brilliant...no doubt about it!

Thomas Sapio

[traynor]

Did Trifecta Mike apply Bayesian Methods to visual handicapping?

[Robert Goren]

Hi Magister Ludi

I agree. The content of TM's posts are beyond the usual.

As a recreational horse player for 45 years, I've learned more about racing data analysis and meta handicapping reading TM's posts than I have in the past years.

A bit about myself. I am a graduate of Cooper Union and also have a masters degree in engineering from Columbia Univ. My discipline is in signal theory and information systems.

Recently retired from full-time emplyment to part-time consulting work. Now I have the time to pursue horse racing more seriously.

What I like about TM's posts (aside from the mathematical complexity) is that he opens "doors" and dares you to enter. He obviously posted about concepts that interested him in no particular order.

What I don't like about TM's posts is that he'd close that "door", unless you could see what was beyond.

I've spent over a month searching and printing his posts and putting them in some order. Not an easy task. But once accomplished, the amount of information is enormous. I've had to break out some old textbooks and get some new ones (especially in Bayesian Statistics and Bayesian Nets). Aside from Kalman Filters, I am not well versed in Bayesian Methods (fortunately I do have friends that are). So, I am learning.

TM is brilliant...no doubt about it!

Thomas Sapio Mike's post on Bayes was very good in deed even if he had trouble put them in to layman's terms. Some of his other ideas were more questionable as I remember.

[Tom]

If the horse takes a crap, he wont make the lap, avoid the trap-- don't bet'em.

Bet the gray on a rainy day, spend the money you've put away. :D

Racing needs more poetry!

[Sapio]

Did Trifecta Mike apply Bayesian Methods to visual handicapping?

Hi traynor

I don't know the answer to that question. I have not read any post by TM on visual handicapping.

However, it would not surprise me if he did. Bayesian Methods outperform all other methods in facial recognition.

Thomas Sapio

[Sapio]

Mike's post on Bayes was very good in deed even if he had trouble put them in to layman's terms. Some of his other ideas were more questionable as I remember.

Hi Robert Goren

I have not come across any posts which I would classify as questionable.

TM operates in an evidence based system within a probabilistic framework. Some of his posts are thought prevoking and state things that are contrary to popular belief, which require further study.

Thomas Sapio

[davew]

What country are you betting in? Where do you have access to videos of horses in training? When you mention 'weight', are you referring to animal weight or weight carried by jockey?


There are many factors including current condition that are involved with how a horse performs in todays race. A horse may be in the best condition it will ever be in, and still not have a prayer if all the other horses just have more ability.

The books and video suggestions given cover a couple areas that I consider separate.

1- physicality and appearance today - the 15 minutes leading up to the start of the race.

2- trip handicapping - watching replays of races seeing things that cost a horse " XX " lengths, making them a better bet today than their record would indicate.

what you seem interested in is
3- training - live or videos - this is mostly limited to trainers and workout clockers and probably would be most helpful for first time starters. I guess there are auctions of horses in training that show videos, but I would think body conformation would be more important than current condition, unless it was entered into a race in the next couple weeks like a futurity.


So what is it you are trying to learn / do?

[Greyfox]

I treat advices from books as assignments for research projects; anyway I collect my own statistics on everything and induce my own conclusions from data. I do not use anything but raw data, no speed points, no nothing. All I need from books is a hint which factors could be related to each other..

:ThmbUp: Excellent post!

If you can get 1 idea from a book, just one, that improves your handicapping, that book has been of value to you.
You seem to be on the right track to doing okay at this game.

Greyfox

[cj]

If you haven't read Nick Mordin's books, you should. He is from the UK and you will definitely get some new ideas from the books.

[cashmachine]

What country are you betting in?
I am betting in Hong-Kong.


Where do you have access to videos of horses in training?

On the Hong-Kong Jockey Club web-site:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meeting/Trackwork/English/Local/
Click "Trackwork video" button on the top right side.


When you mention 'weight', are you referring to animal weight or weight carried by jockey?

I use both animal weight and carried weight (more exactly, I use relative handicapping weight - carried weight divided by weight of horse).


So what is it you are trying to learn / do?
I am trying to learn (1): physicality and appearance today; but important differences are:

1. In all the sources that I saw up to this point, they teach how to judge current condition of standing or walking horse (in the paddock etc.). I have to evaluate galloping horse because all I have is video of training where horses are galloping.

2. Video is shot couple of days before the race, I do not have access to video on the day of racing. I understand that this delay drastically reduces accuracy of observations, but I guess that if horse is not ready for the race then it will be apparent two days before the race as well. Like, I mean the cases when favorite comes to finish like 14th, and he is like 9 lengths behind the leader. I guess that such a performance is a sign that that horse is in really bad shape, it should be possible to spot it on video two days before the race.

[cashmachine]

If you haven't read Nick Mordin's books, you should. He is from the UK and you will definitely get some new ideas from the books.
Thank you!

[Greyfox]

I am betting in Hong-Kong.


On the Hong-Kong Jockey Club web-site:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meeting/Trackwork/English/Local/
Click "Trackwork video" button on the top right side.


.

Hong Kong. Good on you.:ThmbUp:
That is probably the most honest racing venue in the world.
But....good luck....there are a lot of easier tracks in North America to have at least modest success at.

[cashmachine]

Hong Kong. Good on you.:ThmbUp:
That is probably the most honest racing venue in the world.
But....good luck....there are a lot of easier tracks in North America to have at least modest success at.

I selected Hong-Kong because they have closed population of horses, it is much easier to collect database that contains all the information about all the horses. And another big factor for me was their pool size: on average race 15M USD changes hands. When my system will be ready I won't be limited by anemic pool sizes and small field sizes.

[Greyfox]

I selected Hong-Kong because they have closed population of horses, it is much easier to collect database that contains all the information about all the horses. And another big factor for me was their pool size: on average race 15M USD changes hands. When my system will be ready I won't be limited by anemic pool sizes and small field sizes.

All the best,....I truly admire your courage to tackle that "stock" market.
I think if you can "crack" an edge there, and you seem on the right path, you'll do quite well.


Greyfox

[davew]

I watched some 'training video' from link provided and think it is deceptive, although transparent. The riders are all different weights and are helping / neutral / hindering the workout of the horse. When someone looks like they are 30kg bigger than most, and horse looks uncomfortanle like trying to dump rider, I am not sure how you would evaluate that workout.

You need to know what sharp sprinters look like confirmation wise (muscling and size) for the 1000m races vs the routers for the 1650m+ races. It would be helpful to determine if horse weight change is adding or taking away muscle or fat.

My gut tells me you could make more progress on your database forgetting about the workouts completely, or use it to fine tune once getting better results. If you wanted to use it heavily, I would look into form cycles and horses coming off of lay-offs back into racing or confirming badly beaten heavily bet horses are still sharp.

What to watch for in training video? Ease of stride, length and frequency of stride, muscling, coat condition, any 'choppiness'. How they are interacting with jockey - fighting them or pulling them? Any physical changes noticed in the horse over the weeks. The track or turf condition and how they grab and pull...

[cashmachine]

The riders are all different weights and are helping / neutral / hindering the workout of the horse.
What does jockey do when he is "helping" and what does he do when he is "hindering"? Right now I don't see anything different in jockey behavior, all I see is that they all bent on top of the horse and almost never do anything, only sometimes they move their arms.


It would be helpful to determine if horse weight change is adding or taking away muscle or fat.


Do you mean weight change since last race or weight change vs. declaration?


What to watch for in training video? Ease of stride, length and frequency of stride, muscling, coat condition, any 'choppiness'. How they are interacting with jockey - fighting them or pulling them?
How do you define 'choppiness'? When I am looking at galloping horse I try to notice that one of the rear legs and one of the front legs should move completely simultaneously, they should be almost parallel in the beginning of move and almost simultaneously hit the ground... Am I close?

[davew]

watch riders hands - where they are at and what they are doing with reins.
^ when they are pushing to speed up the reins are loose and rider has hands on mane/neck trying to increase the speed of next stride
^ when they are pulling to slow down they are standing up pulling on reins keeping horse head down restricting full stride - sometimes you see horse fighting to get its head free

I am not sure when declaration is - but I am talking horse weight. In the US, many trainers feel a horse loses 3-5% of bodyweight from a race. Could be partly lasix related, but also muscle mass and glycogen reserves. Every athlete probably has a best bodyweight amd % bodyfat vs muscle mass for a certain distance. If your horse is 30kg lighter than race 3 weeks ago is it good or bad? are they getting closer to best or going away from - back to form cycles

'choppiness' I am referring to is fluidity / smoothness / extension when front legs hit the ground. If they are choppy, they usually have shorter stride and bounce around at the withers -looks like they could be in pain. You want front legs way in front and feet extended even more when they hit the ground. More meters per stride and more strides per second = faster horse.

[cashmachine]

'choppiness' I am referring to is fluidity / smoothness / extension when front legs hit the ground. If they are choppy, they usually have shorter stride and bounce around at the withers -looks like they could be in pain. You want front legs way in front and feet extended even more when they hit the ground. More meters per stride and more strides per second = faster horse.

So, front legs are more important than back legs? Thank you very much, today I will watch videos for tomorrow's races and will try to find choppy horses, and then I can compare how they run.

[Greyfox]

I am not sure when declaration is - but I am talking horse weight. In the US, many trainers feel a horse loses 3-5% of bodyweight from a race. .

A 3% to 5% loss of weight during a race?
Wow.
You're saying a steed loses at least 30 pounds or more just running around the track.
Obviously most of that would be water, but that is still hard to believe.

[davew]

So, front legs are more important than back legs? Thank you very much, today I will watch videos for tomorrow's races and will try to find choppy horses, and then I can compare how they run.

It might be easier to watch the horses head movement while running - does it stay about the same or jerk up and down. A word of caution, sometimes horses that look ugly when they run have so much heart they can still win.

I recommend watching some short field replays of US races and just watch the jockey. Ask yourself is this rider trying to speed horse up, slow horse down or just along for the ride right now. Really good jockeys know what pace should be and where/how the horse likes to run and may try to speed up or slow down depending on race conditions this second. Once you see these jockey skills/tricks you will be able to evaluate your workout runs better. Racehorses definitely have more than 1 gear/speed in their transmission and rarely do you see them going as fast as they can.

[cashmachine]

Racehorses definitely have more than 1 gear/speed in their transmission and rarely do you see them going as fast as they can.
Thank you, I did not know that. I thought that during the race jokey always hurry up his horse.

[davew]

I do not know if you look at the other information but I feel much better info is available in the 'past incidents extract' and 'veterinary records' section than the trackwork video for helping your overall results.

You could probably spend your 5 minutes there and get more good than the videos (which would be helpful for a starter after a long lay-off, to see if sharp).
I would discount probability on recent lameness, bleeders, fractures and increase probability on surgical corrections and castration.

Sometimes there is so much information available that most of it is just noise not actually helping you.

[cashmachine]

I do not know if you look at the other information but I feel much better info is available in the 'past incidents extract' and 'veterinary records' section than the trackwork video for helping your overall results.

I am collecting this information, but I don't use it in my system yet. I just barely scratching surface :). I am starting so early with visual handicapping because I understand I will need A LOT of practice watching these videos to get non-trivial edge; I think it will be at least one year from now before I will actually include evaluation of horse condition on video into my system. In the meanwhile I can collect statistics on how well I am doing visual handicapping. Right now results are terrible: I try to select 3 "best" horses in every race using video, and average final place of my selection is 0.53 :D . Random choice would result in 0.5 (the smaller number, the better) :D .

[davew]

A 3% to 5% loss of weight during a race?
Wow.
You're saying a steed loses at least 30 pounds or more just running around the track.
Obviously most of that would be water, but that is still hard to believe.

I do as well, so am guessing it compares from time leaving barn to returning to barn. If the track has an isolation barn before race, pre-race paddock, post race detention barn for drug testing on winners and random samples requested by stewards, this could by 4-5 hours for some horses. If it is hot and humid that day there would also be a bit of sweating.

I am just going by what I have heard, and have not seen it nor confirmed it with actual experience. Any people with scale and race horses have comment on this?