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View Full Version : Big Drop in Claiming Price + Recent Bullit WO


Robert Goren
03-17-2014, 03:55 PM
I have yet to this win. Rudy had in AQU 6th today at 6/5 and ran last. I wonder if a data base guy would have number on this that they are willing to share.

PressThePace
03-17-2014, 05:11 PM
I would be interested in this as well. I'm sure it's very trainer dependent, but it's always a red flag for me.

Stillriledup
03-17-2014, 05:14 PM
Its called the "claim me" workout.....trainers with problem horses use this tactic all the time to try and get horses claimed that they want claimed.

Augenj
03-17-2014, 06:46 PM
I have yet to this win. Rudy had in AQU 6th today at 6/5 and ran last. I wonder if a data base guy would have number on this that they are willing to share.
Don't have a number on this but we had him to finish 6th and he finished 8th.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111828

BIG49010
03-18-2014, 12:30 PM
I put this criteria in my database, just because I was curious.

1st. Work last 1or2 in a sample greater 15 horses
2nd Down in claiming class ( I can't really do big drops)


132 winners from 892 starters (ROI .768), so it looks as though it is a real negative.

Using bullet work doesn't change much 70/458

Saratoga_Mike
03-18-2014, 12:33 PM
RG great question - Big thanks for the info!

Valuist
03-18-2014, 01:31 PM
Big drops used to always be a red flag and a negative....until guys like Calabrese got in the game and his huge ego demanded he win at all costs, running horses lower than their likely worth. He's won a lot of races like that. And he isn't the only one who does it, either.

davew
03-18-2014, 06:38 PM
If they don't have high prime power, how can you even consider Robert?

Poindexter
03-18-2014, 07:17 PM
I put this criteria in my database, just because I was curious.

1st. Work last 1or2 in a sample greater 15 horses
2nd Down in claiming class ( I can't really do big drops)


132 winners from 892 starters (ROI .768), so it looks as though it is a real negative.

Using bullet work doesn't change much 70/458

Is this really a negative? Based on a post by cj a little down the board(I reposted below) a.768 roi is sort of about what you would expect. What is the average roi in your database?


Starts ROI Style
170664 0.79 Tracker
267323 0.77 Midpack
36933 0.76 Leader
32136 0.76 Speed
37744 0.73 1st_St
128791 0.73 Closer
56169 0.64 Plodder
26493 0.57 No_Form

BIG49010
03-18-2014, 09:00 PM
Is this really a negative? Based on a post by cj a little down the board(I reposted below) a.768 roi is sort of about what you would expect. What is the average roi in your database?


Starts ROI Style
170664 0.79 Tracker
267323 0.77 Midpack
36933 0.76 Leader
32136 0.76 Speed
37744 0.73 1st_St
128791 0.73 Closer
56169 0.64 Plodder
26493 0.57 No_Form

Don't know what your asking, it has 255,000 records with 31,000 winners betting every horse in every race would give you a major loss.

Some_One
03-18-2014, 10:44 PM
Yes it's a loss, but it's appears to be not much different then the average overall ROI meaning it's probably not statistically significant. At least that is what I get out of it.

Poindexter
03-18-2014, 11:40 PM
Yes it's a loss, but it's appears to be not much different then the average overall ROI meaning it's probably not statistically significant. At least that is what I get out of it.

This is what I am trying to say.

fmolf
03-19-2014, 07:02 AM
the big difference is that these big droppers usually go off favored...A definite no bet is when these types are shipped to a new track,hoping to get the anima claimed.

DeltaLover
03-19-2014, 10:18 AM
A favorite dropping in class can create the conditions for a potential huge
upset as the crowd loves to overbet this type of runners. Of course a good
percent of this favorites are going to win but I still consider them sucker's bet.