Florida Derby

[Smarty Cide]

Might as well start the thread. Always a big fan of the Florida Derby. Its the kick off of the big time preps and seems a good amount of derby winners have come out of this one recently...

[bgbootha]

This is the race that I am looking forward to the most in the coming weeks.

Cairo Prince
Honor Code
Social Inclusion
General A Rod
WildCat Red
Constitution
Spot
Anchor Down
Medal Count
Tonalist
Mexikoma
Matador
East Hall

This is a monster field lining up for this one. It wouldn't surprise me if the KY favorite is the winner of this race.

Cairo Prince is still one of my top Derby horses, but has all his marbles on this one race, needs at least a third place finish to have a shot at KY field.

Social Inclusion is the unknown.

Mexikoma has had some great runs but just missed a few trips.

WildCat Red is already in the Derby but will keep the pace honest. Generel A Rod I like more than WildCat here and in the Derby but another speed horse to give the other guys something to run at.

COnstitution and Matador are no slubs either.

This is easily setting up to be the best of the bigger preps coming up.

[TMQ]

have they said if Honor Code is running in the Wood or Florida D?

[tanner12oz]

mexikoma had a lung infection last I heard

[Smarty Cide]

have they said if Honor Code is running in the Wood or Florida D?

the wood would be the kiss of death


who is the last horse worth a shit to come out of that race?

[classhandicapper]

That's a very strong race if they all show up!

[bgbootha]

I have read a number of things pointed Honor Code to a few different places. I am still convinced that one or two of these horses will run in the Louisiana Derby and hope to get an easier road.

Thats the first I heard of issues with Mexikoma and I couldn't find anything on a quick google search.

That being said, I hope they all show up, and I hope I can get a good price on General A Rod. Its a ways away, but this horse could really do damage with that extra 1/16 of a mile in the Florda.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Count me as excited.I'm ready for 9 furlongs and beyond.Lets get this show on the road!

[Smarty Cide]

gonna be a good betting race. might be able to get a horse like wildcat red at 10-1

[horses4courses]

the wood would be the kiss of death


who is the last horse worth a shit to come out of that race?


BS.....
There is no reason on this earth why a KY Derby contender should not prep in the Wood.

[Edward DeVere]

Mexihoma shows no published works in the 23 days since his last race.

Not a good sign.

[TMQ]

the wood would be the kiss of death


who is the last horse worth a shit to come out of that race?
I think the Florida Derby would be the kiss of death. Why would you run him back on 2 1/2 weeks rest? He has only been out once this year, and seemed liked he didn't like the heat or the track. He seems to really like the AQUA surface.

[maclr11]

Mexihoma shows no published works in the 23 days since his last race.

Not a good sign.


As stated previously he had a bit of a lung thing. I think I saw on twitter that they would like to make a Derby prep like Louisiana or Florida and try to make the Derby. Team Valor however sees him as a horse who will run all day and a true Belmont horse so it wouldn't shock me to see them go ALW then the Peter Pan than the Belmont. He is still an NW1X and with the little infection I'm sure they don't want to throw him to the wolves. I have to agree he's got the route breeding (Birdstone out of a Toccet mare)and a big long stride on him.

As for the Florida Derby I'm intrigued by Constitution as he has gotten the least hype of the horses and he hasn't beat anyone, but he hasn't really been asked, and showed some maturity in overcoming trouble first time out. Weird to say this but you could get decent value on a Pletcher 3yo. Albeit one that didn't run a 111 beyer like Social Inclusion.

[Thebigguy]

This is the race that I am looking forward to the most in the coming weeks.

Cairo Prince
Honor Code
Social Inclusion
General A Rod
WildCat Red
Constitution
Spot
Anchor Down
Medal Count
Tonalist
Mexikoma
Matador
East Hall

This is a monster field lining up for this one. It wouldn't surprise me if the KY favorite is the winner of this race.

Cairo Prince is still one of my top Derby horses, but has all his marbles on this one race, needs at least a third place finish to have a shot at KY field.

Social Inclusion is the unknown.

Mexikoma has had some great runs but just missed a few trips.

WildCat Red is already in the Derby but will keep the pace honest. Generel A Rod I like more than WildCat here and in the Derby but another speed horse to give the other guys something to run at.

COnstitution and Matador are no slubs either.

This is easily setting up to be the best of the bigger preps coming up.

Are you making this stuff up? Honor Code is going to the Wood. Social Inclusion is likely for the Wood and Mexikoma is probably not going anywhere as he was sick and has not worked. This race is the 2 speed balls from the Fountain of Youth, a few Pletcher allowance horses and Cairo Prince. Cairo Prince lays over this field.

[Edward DeVere]

If Tonalist is in the race, and doesn't have to chase lone speed as he did last time, and gets a rail trip, well, hmmm . . .

[bgbootha]

Are you making this stuff up? Honor Code is going to the Wood. Social Inclusion is likely for the Wood and Mexikoma is probably not going anywhere as he was sick and has not worked. This race is the 2 speed balls from the Fountain of Youth, a few Pletcher allowance horses and Cairo Prince. Cairo Prince lays over this field.

Social Inclusion's connections said this after the race last week.
"Our original goal was the Preakness, but now we are thinking about the Derby," Sanchez said. "The main goal is the Wood Memorial, but we may want to not travel and stay here for the Florida Derby. We'll know soon about everything, maybe in just a couple days."

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/03/13/3992771/social-inclusion-now-prepping.html#storylink=cpy

I can't find the quote but I read somewhere that Honor Code's connections were looking to point toward a rematch with Cairo Prince in the Florida, but after the tough loss he may be off the Derby trail altogether.

And yeah I missed the Mexikoma news...my bad.

But hey thanks for fact checking me and doing it in such a positive manner to boot! :D

[tanner12oz]

Mexikoma pointing to Peter pan and belmont

[PhantomOnTour]

Are we looking at only six runners for this race?

[bgbootha]

Are we looking at only six runners for this race?

According to the Gulfstream Website....

Cairo Prince
General A Rod
WildCat Red
Spot
Constitution
Matador

Are confirmed....

What about Medal Count and Tonalist...although I don't think they are major players of any kind.

[Striker]

Can't say I understand this, it may rain on the first Saturday in May. Cairo Prince may run in the Wood if it rains or based on PP.


http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83958/qa-with-trainer-kiaran-mclaughlin

[Smarty Cide]

if it rains for the derby they will scratch and go to race 2 at monmouth park on the following saturday

[Smarty Cide]

Gotta Like Wildcat Red on the rail

[bgbootha]

:1: WildCat Red 3-1
:2: Matador 15-1
:3: Cairo Prince 9-5
:4: Constitution 4-1
:5: East Hall 20-1
:6: General A Rod 7-2
:7: Allstar 30-1
:8: Spot 8-1

I have to admit, I like the idea that Constitution is the 4th price on the board.

[Smarty Cide]

i hate all those odds, how do you even bet that race?

[bgbootha]

i hate all those odds, how do you even bet that race?

You wait until post, and let the public pound Cairo Prince down the even money, and let them sit for three days looking at WildCat Red on the rail.

And they give us better numbers on Constitution and General A Rod.

(Hopefully)

[stillwater]

This is going to sound a little out there, I suppose,but Matador is kind of interesting.He has a nice lineage and his last half of the TB Derby made me look at him.

They claim he was dirtied at the start and ran pretty slow.He looked to me to be about 20 lengths back at the half.They're adding blinkers and change is always a hook for me.

It's 1 1/8 and maybe worth an atb for me.These guys are still developing and at those odds I kind of like him .

[Rex Phinney]

You wait until post, and let the public pound Cairo Prince down the even money, and let them sit for three days looking at WildCat Red on the rail.

And they give us better numbers on Constitution and General A Rod.

(Hopefully)

If you are picking Constitution over Wildcat Red and Cairo Prince, it won't matter the odds, because you won't be cashing any tickets.

[bgbootha]

If you are picking Constitution over Wildcat Red and Cairo Prince, it won't matter the odds, because you won't be cashing any tickets.

I will take Constitution over WildCat in a heartbeat if someone were to give me that match race bet.

Cairo is great, but his odds won't be. Unless he floats up to or stays close to 2-1 I can't justify playing him.

[letswastemoney]

Florida Derby is wide open. At least four of them can win it.

[PhantomOnTour]

Big exacta: Cairo over Matador
Small exacta: Matador over Cairo
Win Bet: Matador

[bgbootha]

Brisnet Ultimate PPs

Floriday Derby (http://bit.ly/NWqwIr)

[bgbootha]

HBD Top Pick

:6: GENERAL A ROD is coming off a tough head bob loss to WildCat Red in the Fountain of Youth here at Gulfstream Park just six weeks after beating WildCat in the same fashion in the Gulfstream Park Derby. The two face off again, but the big difference here is the distance. The Florida Derby adds another 1/16 of a mile to the distance the pair ran in the Fountain of Youth and that could be the difference here. Breaking from gate 6 won’t be a problem as there is no real pace directly on his inside and he should find his way to the second lane with WildCat red on his inside along the rail as they hit the first turn. If the two can produce a run like they have had in the past General A Rod should handle the distance better and win this one in the late stages of the game.

Top Contenders

:4: CONSTITUTION is the least raced colt in the field having only raced in two races so far in his career. That being said, they were both impressive wins over quality fields. Using the Florida Derby to make your stakes debut is quite a jump in class, but this horse has the pedigree to do just about anything he wants. The brother of another Derby hopeful Tapiture, Constitution is sired by Tapit out of Baffled and should have no problems with the distance which was evident as he was drawing clear coming home at 1 1/16 last time out. The speed figures are there and he should be coming on strong late in the game along with Cairo Prince. The price is going to be right on this one as the morning line is sitting at 4-1 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see that creep up a little bit before post time as well.

:3: CAIRO PRINCE is just about everyone’s derby pick at this point of the game and he is going to need a high quality race if he wants to make the field of 20 come May 3rd. Cairo Prince is coming off a strong performance in the Holy Bull which he won by almost 6 lengths here at Gulfstream Park. Cairo Prince has every opportunity to win this race, but the price just doesn’t seem to be anywhere near what I would want to see. The morning line sits a 9/5 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him drift closer to even money come Saturday afternoon. The two month layoff doesn’t worry me much as that is nearly the same layoff that he had going from the Remsen (where he finished 2nd by a nose to Honor Code) to the Holy Bull.

B/C Horses

:8: SPOT is an interesting horse in this field, he took a big step up winning the G-2 Swale earliery this month here at Guflstream, but that was only at 7 furlongs, he will be handling two turns for the first time here in the Florida Derby. Two back he finished a distant fifth in another 7 furlong race that was won by WildCat Red, but we can see that Spot looks to need a race after a layoff to come back into form which was apparently twice earlier in his career. He has been working out great and his pedigree suggests he should be able to handle the distance without much concern. Another step up wouldn’t surprise me here, but a step all the way up to the winner’s circle is going to be tough considering the rest of the field.

:2: Matador has some question marks and is going to be the longshot that may just have a small chance here. Sitting at 15-1 on the morning line he is the only other horse in the field that wouldn’t blow my mind if they finished near the front of this one. Another horse that has been working out very well the last few weeks and adds blinkers for the first time just to give us one more thing to think about with this one. Matador hasn’t won since late October and that was on the turf at Woodbine. However, his two best speed figures both occurred after moving to the Tampa Bay dirt this year. He finished a close fourth in the Sam F Davis and then a distant 5th to Ring Weekend’s miracle run in the Tampa Bay derby. The blinkers and works make me wonder if they will try to keep him closer to the pace on this one. All in all, this field is quite a step up in class, but there are reasons to like this horse going into this race, including the long odds he may have come post time.

Back End Exotics

:1: WildCat Red is the 3-1 second choice on the morning line and will probably stay the second choice come post time behind Cairo Prince. He draws the rail which should help his early speed gain the lead and have a chance to set the pace. But unless he gets out to an easy pace, I just don’t see him carrying the distance well in this one. His last win by a nose over General A Rod didn’t come after a grueling pace and may have been aided by a fast Gulfstream Park track. If the track is playing anywhere close to fair I don’t see how WildCat can hold the rest of the field off this time around. It wouldn’t surprise me if WildCat finds his way into the exotics and grabs a few more points in his road to the Kentucky Derby, but finding the winners circle is going to be a tough gig for this sprinter to handle.

Toss'em

:5: EAST HALL is one of those horses that just keeps showing up on these Kentucky Derby prep race cards and continues to simply not show up or make a splash at all. He finished 12 lengths back in the Tampa Bay Derby and was six lengths back in the Fountain of Youth. His running style isn’t going to help as coming from way behind is just going to be too tall a task with the class he is facing in this field.

:7: ALLSTAR won his last race at 7 furlongs by 4 lengths but simply doesn’t belong in this field. I am pretty sure a few of the other horses could run the race pulling a sled and still finish in front of this colt, who hasn’t ran close to the kind of race it would take to finish in the money in this one. Not to mention nothing in this horses pedigree line suggests he would like anything close to 1 1/8 mile route.

[Troopa]

Don't overlook constitution even with the jump in class. Can't deny his pops successful progeny.

Cairo prince is overrated. Everyone jumped on his bandwagon but I was hesitant. Who has he really beaten? Look back to his last race. Conquest Titan? That Horse shouldn't be running in derby preps. And Intense Holiday wasn't in his current form

[bgbootha]

Don't overlook constitution even with the jump in class. Can't deny his pops successful progeny.

Cairo prince is overrated. Everyone jumped on his bandwagon but I was hesitant. Who has he really beaten? Look back to his last race. Conquest Titan? That Horse shouldn't be running in derby preps. And Intense Holiday wasn't in his current form

Completely agree with all point here! :ThmbUp:

[lamboguy]

i am going to go with ALLSTAR.

[TMQ]

:3: Cairo Prince should handle this field easily. I cant pick any of the horses that ran the day of the Fountain of Youth. The track was too fast that day.

[Troopa]

:3: Cairo Prince should handle this field easily. I cant pick any of the horses that ran the day of the Fountain of Youth. The track was too fast that day.

That logic is flawed because it's at the same speed biased track with the same 2 horses that dominate on that track. Cairo prince won't "handle" them easily

[TMQ]

That logic is flawed because it's at the same speed biased track with the same 2 horses that dominate on that track. Cairo prince won't "handle" them easily
But the track wont be that fast Saturday. :3: will sit right off the speed horses and pounce before the 2nd turn.

[Troopa]

But the track wont be that fast Saturday. :3: will sit right off the speed horses and pounce before the 2nd turn.

That's if he can keep running at the same pace those 2 monsters are going to be kicking at in the stretch. Guess we will see

[porkchop]

:6: wp

[raybo]

StatsMaster PPs (includes the "CR" for the race), from my ADW for the Fla Derby card.

[bks]

None of these horses have run a race in the same stratosphere as California Chrome's latest. Barrig a freakish performance by someone in this group, I can't see how the Derby favorite comes from the Florida Derby.

[TMQ]

None of these horses have run a race in the same stratosphere as California Chrome's latest. Barrig a freakish performance by someone in this group, I can't see how the Derby favorite comes from the Florida Derby.
If Cairo prince wins this race he will be the favorite going into the Derby. California Chrome is a nice horse but it has been a LONG time since a California bred has won the Kentucky Derby!

[stillwater]

If Cairo prince wins this race he will be the favorite going into the Derby. California Chrome is a nice horse but it has been a LONG time since a California bred has won the Kentucky Derby!

Being the KD favorite and winning the KD are two very unrelated things.

[raybo]

One thing for sure, Wildcat Red does not need any points, while General a Rod needs at least 4th and Cairo Prince needs at least 3rd, to guarantee the Derby. All the rest need at least 2nd. So, if you were the trainers for these what would you be telling the jocks?

[cutchemist42]

Constitution and Spot interest me, definitely interested to see what the toteboard ends up at for either horse.

[letswastemoney]

Here is what I think, so far:

:1: Wildcat Red - Although the sire is poor for route distances, his dam won at 8 and 10 furlongs on dirt. I don't get too caught up in distance pedigree analysis, especially when this one has two solid route efforts already. It's something to look at for sure, but I was on board going against Union Rags in the 2012 Belmont Stakes because of the statistic about Dixie Union and his ability to sire long distance runners. Union Rags showed me. Also, it's slated to rain, and as taxicab pointed out, this colt is bred to run underwater.

:2: Matador - His two dirt starts are mediocre, but he did improve over his synthetic efforts. The one big thing to note is his sire Malibu Moon, who tends to get runners to freak on a sloppy track. It's debatable whether even a freak effort will cause enough improvement to win from this one. I don't think the Malibu Moon angle can be ignored either. Maybe use underneath?

:3: Cairo Prince - Isn't he supposed to scratch if it rains? If he runs, bettors should be all over him and the trainer doesn't sound too eager to win. Remember that Itsmyluckyday came into this race last year off his big Holy Bull win, and lacked some fitness while finishing second against Orb. Cairo Prince only needs to finish in the money to make the Kentucky Derby, and maybe that's how bettors should approach Cairo Prince, by using him underneath vertically and backing up horizontally.

:4: Constitution - His win last time was clearly against a stakes quality field and should be thought of as such. This colt comes from a good family and the connections need points if they want to enter the Kentucky Derby, so it's almost a guarantee that Pletcher will have his entry fully cranked up.

:5: East Hall - This gelding has the classic profile of a closer that likes to clunk up for third or fourth against the best competition. His chances to win though are slim to none.

:6: General a Rod - He's never run a bad race yet. Much is made of the fact that Roman Ruler sires route winners and D'wildcat doesn't. That's true, although the more times a horse runs, the less pedigree matters, and so far there still isn't a separation from Wildcat Red out of two races against that foe. He should be in the mix, and if he wins, it will be a nail-biting sort of win that will make backers have a heart attack from how close it turns out.

:7: Allstar - No chance. None. Not even to hit the board.

:8: Spot - I'd have liked this gelding much more with a better draw. The low speed figures for those sprint races mean little considering he starts in a nine furlong race here. The pedigree looks good for a route and Nick Zito knows how to win this race. With all of that said, I'm not sure if even his own trainer believes this one can win: "I do a lot of handicapping and I’ve watched Gulfstream races a long time going a mile and an eighth. No matter how you slice it, you always give up a few lengths."
______

Tentative selection: Constitution

Next best: Wildcat Red, General a Rod, Cairo Prince

Upset chance: Spot

Use underneath: Matador, East Hall
______

I'm still thinking about this, to be honest.

[letswastemoney]

Something else to note is Spot's last workout. The list of horses he outworked that morning represents an all-star list of horses based in Florida.

Borseggiatore :48.50 B 13
Braided :52.70 B 77
Brandini :50.05 B 57
Cairo Prince :50.90 B 62
Calm Pacific :49.50 B 42
Campogiovanni :49.70 B 51
Capo Bastone :48.35 B 6
Cinnamon Spice :50.50 B 59
Classic Sense :52.00 B 74
Confrontation :50.00 B 55
Constitution :49.30 B 33
Corporate Culture :50.50 B 59
Danalake :50.05 B 57
Denim N Pearls :51.00 B 68
Divine Oath :49.45 B 39
Dreaming of Julia :48.25 B 4
Dynamic Boy :49.45 B 39
Financial Modeling :48.90 B 20
Fredericksburg :48.40 B 7
Fruit Ludt :48.65 B 16
Gala Award :49.50 B 42
Ghurair :49.80 B 53
Gifted Ruler :51.10 B 71
Good Response :49.30 B 33
Grip Hands :48.40 B 7
Happy Fella :51.90 B 72
Harpoon :48.90 B 20
He Has Charm :48.75 B 18
Hurricane Turn :48.90 B 20
In Tune :48.80 B 19
Indian Guide :49.05 BG 31
Integrity :48.90 B 20
Intense Holiday :49.40 B 38
Itsmyluckyday :47.95 B 2
Kate Greenaway :49.35 B 36
Kid Lightning :49.95 B 54
Legend :49.35 B 36
Make It Anywhere :49.00 B 27
Make It Snappy :50.50 B 59
Mio d'Oro :50.90 B 62
Moe Man :49.00 B 27
Moon Song :48.40 B 7
Munnings Sister :50.00 B 55
Nine O Wonderful :48.90 B 20
Oil Strike :49.05 BG 31
Orino :49.70 B 51
Ornellia :49.00 B 27
Palace Malice :48.90 B 20
Penwith :50.95 B 67
Picozza :49.50 B 42
Pleuven (FR) :49.50 B 42
Pray a Novena :49.30 B 33
Precarious :51.00 B 68
Private Ensign :48.45 B 12
Reach for Yield :52.00 B 74
Roundnroundwego :49.65 B 50
Runway Ready :48.30 B 5
Sandcastle :48.00 B 3
Sassicaia :49.50 B 42
Scorched Cat :49.60 B 49
Somali Lemonade :48.40 B 7
Souper Scoop :51.00 B 68
Spot :47.70 B 1
Spring Blossom :48.70 B 17
Storming Inti :49.50 B 42
Surfing U S A :48.90 B 20
Tap Twenty One :50.90 B 62
Teen Pauline :52.00 B 74
True Courage :49.45 B 39
Trusted Choice :51.90 B 72
Twenty in One :50.90 B 62
Unlimited Budget :48.55 B 15
Vuitton :48.40 B 7
Waterway Run :49.00 B 27
Wild Billum :49.50 B 42
Woodfield Springs :50.90 B 62
Yap Yap Yap :48.50 B 13

[Robert Fischer]

I'm not a million percent sold on Cairo Prince being a superstar.

There are some things to like. I really like his ability to seeming advance with ease to the front. It's a trait that will serve him well if he's as good as his highlights.

The public isn't really too aware that he may have hung a little in the Remsen. Between him and Honor Code, there was a lot of celebration among fans - which is good, but I'm not sure that Honor Code did a ton of running to come back up the rail so much as maybe Cairo Prince hung a little. Hard to say with certainty.

The other thing I disagree with the public about is General a Rod. I thought he may have outperformed Wildcat Red in both of their match ups, even though they have split the decisions.

Should be a good race, and I'm hoping we get some performances that lead toward some derby contenders.

:4: :3: :6:

[picojim]

CONSTITUTION wins by 7 under wraps :)

[Tee]

:8: Spot should appreciate the increase in distance. We'll see shortly if he is of any quality going a route of ground.


Nope!!

[pele polo]

What was going to be a stellar race has lost it's luster a little with some injuries and horses choosing to go other places.

Cairo Prince wins by open lengths. No reason to over analyze this one.

The Aqueduct 2yo stakes are proving to be the most credible key races.

Ex, Tri
:3: with
:1: , :6:

[Robert Fischer]

wildcat red would not quit.

have to like that horse.

good race

[pele polo]

In horse racing, I'm wrong more often than not. Had no resect for Constitution. However, Cairo Rince obviously hung, a sign of not being fit... 9 week layoff. Now the media will talk bad training job. Maybe not set up for this race, but will still be incredibly interesting on Derby Day if he gets in.

[TheEdge07]

Cairos Prince hung no excuse ,,but some will make excuses he was awful today.

[pele polo]

wildcat red would not quit.

have to like that horse.

good race

Yes. He's a racehorse. Have to love those types. Goes against his breeding and all. I wonder if Velazquez had an opportunity to land on the winner?

[pele polo]

Cairos Prince hung no excuse ,,but some will make excuses he was awful today.

He looked as if he was going to glide by midway through the turn.

[letswastemoney]

This was Closing Argument's pattern in 2005. McLaughlin never intended to win the Florida Derby today. It was just a tightener for Cairo Prince, no matter what the quotes say.

[mostpost]

This was Closing Argument's pattern in 2005. McLaughlin never intended to win the Florida Derby today. It was just a tightener for Cairo Prince, no matter what the quotes say.
I don't get it. What does what happened in 2005 have to do with this year's Kentucky Derby. Different year, different horses.

When-if-he runs in the Kentucky Derby, Cairo Prince will have had one race in fourteen weeks. Personally, I do not think that is a sufficient foundation.

Cairo Prince basically ran the entire race three or four lengths behind the leaders. How could I be impressed by him when I was not all that impressed with the three ahead of him?

[TMQ]

Those fractions were so slow, No one was going to close on those leaders

[letswastemoney]

I don't get it. What does what happened in 2005 have to do with this year's Kentucky Derby. Different year, different horses.

When-if-he runs in the Kentucky Derby, Cairo Prince will have had one race in fourteen weeks. Personally, I do not think that is a sufficient foundation.

Cairo Prince basically ran the entire race three or four lengths behind the leaders. How could I be impressed by him when I was not all that impressed with the three ahead of him?
McLaughlin has never won the final prep race with any of his Kentucky Derby contenders. It's his normal training pattern because he doesn't want his horses to run their best race in March/April.

Different horses, same training pattern.

[Rex Phinney]

I think everyone should be taking a long hard look at Santa Anita next week. Having seen california Chrome run, nothing I saw today will even cause him to break a sweat.

Wildcat Red is a tough damn horse, most impressive of the day IMO. Whoever is going to beat him in the derby had better bring their A game, he won't let you by with anything else

[Rex Phinney]

McLaughlin has never won the final prep race with any of his Kentucky Derby contenders. It's his normal training pattern because he doesn't want his horses to run their best race in March/April.

Different horses, same training pattern.

Yeah, I'm sure the guy is using a million dollar race as a prep, especially seeing how the horse needs points. The other horses caught up, plain and simple, same story different year

[Smarty Cide]

I think everyone should be taking a long hard look at Santa Anita next week. Having seen california Chrome run, nothing I saw today will even cause him to break a sweat.

Wildcat Red is a tough damn horse, most impressive of the day IMO. Whoever is going to beat him in the derby had better bring their A game, he won't let you by with anything else



what he said. no one has been close to California Chrome in quite sometime, he win next week by a big margin and this derby/ years crop reminds me of 2008... #JustSaying

[classhandicapper]

I wasn't shocked Cairo Prince got beat, but I was shocked he didn't run better than that. When Kiaran M is raving about how a horse is doing and calls him "special" I tend to expect the horse to move forward. He's not a guy that generally talks his horses up.

[burnsy]

I agree, when he raves about a horse, its usually money. But I'm always suspicious of these horses that don't race. There's usually a good reason for it....not always, in most cases. The top three ran well, Cairo Prince is on the outside now looking in and with a race like that...how much hope can you have, in or not? People are posting "its strategy"...I got a Sunday morning laugh out of that. Good strategy, hang like wet socks, hope for defections because of the points................hope that works for you....:rolleyes:

[TheEdge07]

I agree, when he raves about a horse, its usually money. But I'm always suspicious of these horses that don't race. There's usually a good reason for it....not always, in most cases. The top three ran well, Cairo Prince is on the outside now looking in and with a race like that...how much hope can you have, in or not? People are posting "its strategy"...I got a Sunday morning laugh out of that. Good strategy, hang like wet socks, hope for defections because of the points................hope that works for you....:rolleyes:

He hung against Honor Code and the public was crying about the trip he got:bang: :bang:

[senortout]

Trainer doesn't toughen up his horse for the Ky Derby by letting him sluff off in a million dollar race. Remember folks, your horse has only one chance to win the Florida Derby too.......not just one chance to win the Ky Derby alone....if you get the picture. Years from now, your fans can see how he won the Florida Derby and came within a whisker of winning both...not really that impressed that he came within a whisker of winning both, but failed each time. Incidentally, what do you tell your jock? If he can win this thing easy, well go ahead and win?

All that being said, if he does qualify and get in the Derby, will you bet him?




McLaughlin has never won the final prep race with any of his Kentucky Derby contenders. It's his normal training pattern because he doesn't want his horses to run their best race in March/April.

Different horses, same training pattern.

[senortout]

Older male horses ran an extra 1/16 th in the Skipaway Stakes, race 12.
24.06 47.55 1:11.07 1:36.24 1:55.36
24:01 48.19 1:12.00 1:36.46 1:49.16
Florida Derby splits below Skipaway Splits for comparison

Now, I'm reaching here perhaps....? Tacking that final 1/16 th onto the Derby time leaves these guys only 6.20 seconds to do that. (subtract the Derby final time from the Skipaway final time) Since they were all slowing down at a greater rate, either a) the Skipaway field was exceptional or b) the Fla. Derby field was not all that much, despite the hype, or c) maybe a bit of each.

Incidentally, in case you are wondering how fast the strip was Saturday, here are the 6 1/2 furlong sprint splits (for really swell sprinters, granted)
22.40 44.30 1:08.08 1:14.66 wire to wire for splits of:
22.40 21.90 23.76 6.58 of which that final 1/16 is slower than the 6.20 which would have been needed to complete the Derby had it been run at the Skipaway distance....thank you very much. (well, yeah, the winner was being eased up but still)