Conference tourney week is officially on, as...

[RXB]

Seton Hall scores at the buzzer to upset #3 Villanova 64-63 in the Big East quarterfinals.

[RXB]

Three good games this morning; two to go. My fourth annual S-curve exercise is in its final stages; I'll post just before the selection show, after the Big Ten game is completed, and let's see if I do as well as the past couple of years.

Just looked at Lunardi's bracketology and we have the same at-large selections this year although we disagree one some seedings (notably BYU, his last team in, which I have a fair bit higher on the curve).

[Robert Goren]

does Nebraska get in?

[RXB]

Okay, here's my S-curve. Auto bids in bold . I have 28 at-large teams that I think are locks or near locks, compared to eight that I have modest to considerable doubt about their chances. Also listed the eight teams that I had as the next group in (x1, x2...).

I put the corresponding seed numbers to the right of the team names and Lunardi's in brackets for teams where my seed lines are different than his. (PI means play-in.)

1 Florida 1
2 Arizona 1
3 Wichita St 1
4 Michigan 1
5 Villanova 2
6 Kansas 2
7 Virginia 2 (3)
8 Iowa St 2 (3)
9 Louisville 3
10 Michigan St 3
11 Wisconsin 3 (2)
12 Duke 3 (2)
13 Syracuse 4
14 San Diego St 4
15 Creighton 4
16 UCLA 4
17 Cincinnati 5
18 UConn 5
19 Oklahoma 5 (6)
20 North Carolina 5
21 Ohio St 6
22 New Mexico 6 (5)
23 VCU 6
24 Kentucky 6
25 Gonzaga 7
26 Texas 7 (8)
27 Baylor 7
28 Saint Louis 7
29 Memphis 8
30 UMass 8 (9)
31 Colorado 8 (10)
32 St. Joseph’s 8 (10)
33 Geo Wash 9 (8)
34 Kansas St 9
35 BYU 9 (11PI)
36 Oregon 9 (7)
37 Stanford 10 (9)
38 Pittsburgh 10 (9)
39 Providence 10 (12)
——————————-BUBBLE
40 Xavier 10 (11PI)
41 Dayton 11 (11PI)
42 Nebraska 11 (11PI)
43 Oklahoma St (8)
44 Tennessee 11PI (11)
45 Iowa 11PI (8)
46 Arizona St 12PI (10)
47 SMU 12PI (11)
x1 California
x2 So Miss
x3 Minnesota
x4 Green Bay
x5 Toledo
x6 Florida St
x7 Georgetown
x8 St. John’s
————————————
48 N Dakota St 12
49 Harvard 12
50 Manhattan 12
51 Stephen F Austin 13
52 W Michigan 13
53 Delaware 13
54 Tulsa 13
55 New Mexico St 14
56 Mercer 14
57 La-Lafayette 14
58 E. Kentucky 14
59 NC Central 15
60 American 15
61 Wisc-Milwaukee 15
62 Wofford 15
63 Weber St 16
64 Coastal Carolina 16
65 Mt St Mary’s 16PI
66 Albany 16PI
67 Cal Poly 16PI
68 Texas Southern 16PI

[RXB]

The only bad thing about the selection show is that I have to listen to Seth Davis for an hour.

[RXB]

The bold auto-bid font didn't survive the cut-and-paste. Also, should note that Oklahoma St (43) would be an 11 seed for me. (Missed putting that in there.)

[RXB]

Did fairly well again, a little better than Lunardi. I didn't see that NC State play-in selection coming-- Lunardi had them nearly buried, too, seventh team out-- but our last team in (SMU) was the first team out and that narrow miss was our only team that didn't make it.

I called two of the at-large play-ins correctly plus all four of the auto-bid play-ins correctly. None of my teams are more than two seeds from where I picked them.

Lunardi only got one of the at-large play-ins correct and missed one of the autobid play-ins. He was way off the mark with Iowa as a #8 (they're a play-in) and BYU as his last team in (actually a #10 seed), the latter roughly matching my call of Arizona St as the second last team in (actually a #10).

I missed Virginia as a #1 but I had them as a #2 vs. Lunardi who had them at #3.

[RXB]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/brackets/viewable_men

[Valuist]

According to the Ken Pomeroy college ratings, the worst seedings appear to be Louisville as a 4 (Pomeroy had them 2nd overall); Kentucky as an 8 (Pomeroy had them 17th overall) and Pitt as a 9 seed (ranked 18th overall).

Teams that just missed: SMU (32nd), Louisiana Tech (35th) and Utah (36th).

[Bettowin]

They really stuck it to Wichita State with Kentucky and Louisville looming. How the hell did Louisville end up a 4 seed?

[onefast99]

ncaa makes its own rules.

[cj]

They really stuck it to Wichita State with Kentucky and Louisville looming. How the hell did Louisville end up a 4 seed?

They were a 4 seed specifically to make sure the little school has it tough.

Those thinking the BCS Playoff will be "fair", take note.

[RXB]

They really stuck it to Wichita State with Kentucky and Louisville looming. How the hell did Louisville end up a 4 seed?

RPI (#19) and out-of-conference play. Louisville's best two OOC opponents were North Carolina (a #6 seed) and Kentucky (a #8 seed) and they lost both of those games.

[RXB]

By the way, I love how people like Andrew Feldman of ESPN gush over Lunardi getting "67 of 68 teams" correct. Um, Andrew, 32 are automatic bids for conference champions and a monkey could figure out 25 of the 36 at-large teams.

But never one to be topped when it comes to inaccuracy and incorrect opinions, Seth Davis says that "SMU is the first ranked team since Utah State in 2004 not to make the tourney." Note to Seth: SMU wasn't ranked and in fact they didn't even get a single vote in either the AP or UPI polls in the week prior to their first round exit in their conference tournament.

[RXB]

Here's the NCAA's official S-curve with the teams ranked from 1-68.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24487953/official-ncaa-1-68-seeding-order

[cj's dad]

Hard to believe that these a---oles make a living doing this.

[cj]

RPI (#19) and out-of-conference play. Louisville's best two OOC opponents were North Carolina (a #6 seed) and Kentucky (a #8 seed) and they lost both of those games.

Still, they are ranked what, 3? The committee says ROI isn't everything, except when they want it be.

[Valuist]

Get the top sportsbook directors to pick the teams. They have to put out good lines or they will get hurt. They've been following the teams much more closely than the alleged "committee".

[Valuist]

Getting beyond the mess involving Louisville only being a 4, and SMU being left out, what the hell is Colorado doing in the tournament? And as an 8 seed? What a joke.