MLB season over/under win totals

[Valuist]

On Chad Millman's Behind the Bets podcast, the guests discuss various teams' prospects against the posted win totals.

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=10595685


Over teams? Seattle, White Sox, Toronto, Cubs

Under teams? Oakland, Yankees, Detroit

[Stillriledup]

Here's another discussion about W/L totals.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111104

I actually like the Cubs under because they may trade Samardjia (sp?) at some point, and if they do trade him at the all star break or sooner, their pitching is just going to get weaker. Hard to back these guys knowing one of their best pitchers is close to being moved.

[Valuist]

Here's another discussion about W/L totals.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111104

I actually like the Cubs under because they may trade Samardjia (sp?) at some point, and if they do trade him at the all star break or sooner, their pitching is just going to get weaker. Hard to back these guys knowing one of their best pitchers is close to being moved.

I will have to disagree on this. The guy in the podcast brought up some great points. You're concerned about them MAYBE trading one starter; last year they traded two starters (Garza and Feldman). The team was 20-33 in one run games; Veras should help the bullpen (could it have been worse?). Their 3 cogs in the infield: Rizzo, Barney and Castro ALL had terrible seasons at the plate in 2013. When a young player regresses strongly, they usually come back with better focus and move forward to their mean performance. And if they don't? They will find themselves on the bench.

For the season, the Cubs were net minus 87 runs and had a record of 66-96. The Padres were minus 82 in net runs yet had a record of 76-86.

Basically all teams finish between 60 and 100 wins. 68 wins isn't much. Anyone who bets it under is giving themselves no margin for error.

I'll be at the Orleans in late March and likely will be hitting the windows to bet this one over.

[Stillriledup]

I will have to disagree on this. The guy in the podcast brought up some great points. You're concerned about them MAYBE trading one starter; last year they traded two starters (Garza and Feldman). The team was 20-33 in one run games; Veras should help the bullpen (could it have been worse?). Their 3 cogs in the infield: Rizzo, Barney and Castro ALL had terrible seasons at the plate in 2013. When a young player regresses strongly, they usually come back with better focus and move forward to their mean performance. And if they don't? They will find themselves on the bench.

For the season, the Cubs were net minus 87 runs and had a record of 66-96. The Padres were minus 82 in net runs yet had a record of 76-86.

Basically all teams finish between 60 and 100 wins. 68 wins isn't much. Anyone who bets it under is giving themselves no margin for error.

I'll be at the Orleans in late March and likely will be hitting the windows to bet this one over.

Awesome writeup, i love your points, you've sold me on them being an ok over bet.

[Valuist]

Awesome writeup, i love your points, you've sold me on them being an ok over bet.

Thx.

I think as a good rule of thumb, look for the unders with some of the teams lined in the 90s and over for teams under 70. There's exceptions, like the horrific Astros team last year. But when going under the 70s and over the 90s, just very little margin for error. A key injury to a team expected to win 90 and they could be in trouble. And one benefit to the sub 70 teams (assuming they are young team) is they'll keep playing hard into September. The worst is an aging veteran team who at best is only mediocre.

[Bettowin]

Royals over 78 (which is what it was a month or so ago) is pretty solid. They should improve off last year and score more runs early in the year.

[Valuist]

Royals over 78 (which is what it was a month or so ago) is pretty solid. They should improve off last year and score more runs early in the year.

I would agree with that. The analytics guy is a bit negative on Detroit, saying their 5 starters made a combined 156 starts, which is amazing. Usually teams will have their 5 man rotation miss many more starts than that. Then they basically gave away Fister. And Cleveland made a huge move forward last year. In most sports, when a team makes a big jump in wins, the next year there is some regression. So if both Detroit and Cleveland come back to the pack, somebody else is going to benefit. Might as well be KC.

[Stillriledup]

I would agree with that. The analytics guy is a bit negative on Detroit, saying their 5 starters made a combined 156 starts, which is amazing. Usually teams will have their 5 man rotation miss many more starts than that. Then they basically gave away Fister. And Cleveland made a huge move forward last year. In most sports, when a team makes a big jump in wins, the next year there is some regression. So if both Detroit and Cleveland come back to the pack, somebody else is going to benefit. Might as well be KC.

V Man, i love your mindset for these types of plays, its thinking outside the box for sure, and i'm always looking for these thought processes. Your concept that "everything has to go right" for the teams lined in the high 80s or low 90s is great. In the NBA, the highest total was the Miami Heat at 60.5 wins and they need to go 17-3 in their last 20 in order to cash the "over" and the 6ers were the lowest win team at 16.5 and they only need to go 2-16 in their last 18 to cash the over. I have to imagine 2 teams will let them off the hook and lose, but if you have the over, you might be sweating a touch.

[TheEdge07]

Mets easily over 80 wins
Rays under 85
Yankees over 90
Red Sox under 85
Angels over 85

[Stillriledup]

Mets easily over 80 wins
Rays under 85
Yankees over 90
Red Sox under 85
Angels over 85



The "Sharps" are betting Yanks under...but i won't touch that with a 10 ft pole because of Jeter's last year, and the Yanks have something to prove after a down year. They have too much heart to bet against, Girardi did a "mgr of year" type job last year winning 85 games with a broken down team, they have retooled, gotten a few new exciting FAs, signed an exciting new pitcher, Pineda is back and looking ok in ST, so i wouldnt doubt these guys to win 90.