TPR / Question For Dick Schmidt

[OhioFan]

I've started to mess around with making TPRs as per the method outlined in Pace Makes the Race, and have a question regarding the class adjustments for Dick or anyone else using TPR.

Regarding class levels, is there an updated version of the Comparative Class Chart on pg. 34 that could apply to racing today? As a result of Slots, VLTs, etc... Due to increased purses I'm sure a track such as Mnr would no longer be a level 11.

If no one has bothered to create a similar chart for today's game, would anyone have any suggestions as to how to get started making one, using DRF purse index values as a rough guide or starting point perhaps?

Thanks,

Bryan

[Dick Schmidt]

Bryan,

No, I haven't seen an updated chart in several years. If you want one, you'll have to make your own. The one we published was mostly based on purse value, so that would be a good place to start.

One thing to remember is that the class chart itself was intended to be just a starting point. We told you that you were going to have to "tinker" with track-to-track adjustments to find what works on your circuit. There was just no way we could do the huge number of adjustments for every track, and besides they change all the time. The chart in the book was out of date before the ink was dry.

What you are trying to do, of course, is predict how horses from one track will run at another. We describe in the book how to start, using track speed records and class. Then it is up to you. If you think a shipper is the third best in a race, and it finished tenth, you have a problem. Of course, don't base adjustments on just one race if you can help it, but you gotta start somewhere.

It would be nice if we could just compute a TT adjustment and use it for all time, but that isn't how it works. The reason TPR numbers still function so well after all these years is that almost no one is willing to do the work it takes to make them perform at a high level. Of course, there is one solution; as in most things in life, you can substitute money for work. Bob Purdy's Synergism program provides TPR ratings that are up to the minute. Based on the excellent HDW figs, these adjustments have proved themselves to me over several years. If you are serious about TPR and make more than $5 bets, this is a fantastic value. As far as I know, the Synergism program is still free, but it does require HDW downloads.

Dick


This goal setting stuff can really work. “To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of their women. To have your own state!”

[Tom]

Class chart suggestion:

Take the chart published periodically in DRF - the one tha lists all the tracks and a numerical rating for purse index. convert this spread of the numbers here ( something like 3-120??) to a 10 point spread so that you have 10 class levels, or 8, or 6.....
Then try that out. I made one like that a few years ago when TPR was my program of choice everyday.

[Dick Schmidt]

Another thing you could do is buy Dave Schwartz's pars. He has class ratings for all the tracks, and even classes within a track. If you want to stay pencil and paper, this is probably the best starting point.

Dick


"Be not afraid of any man who walks beneath the skies. When danger threatens, call on me, and I will equalize." -Samuel Colt

[OhioFan]

Thanks for the help guys!! I will consider both methods and definately get cracking on testing out both. Unfortanately, I had to discontinue my HDW subscription due to lack of interest in racing, being unable to further justify the cost based on my level of play and acedemic as well as work commitments. I have since had a renewed interest in racing and more time to seriously dedicate to formulating a logical approach to it. However, I do have a huge back log of SynVI TPRs whose effectiveness I can compare against an adjustment method using Dave Schwartz's class levels and/or a method Tom mentioned. While I'm sure SynVI's adjustment process is second to none, I'm a very hands on and technical person, thus would enjoy making the numbers myself too.

Regarding the DRF purse index chart anyone know how regularly it gets updated and if they are availible online as well as in the print editions of the Form. Last one I looked at was from a Form about two weeks ago which said the chart is updated annually, but said the listed values were from the 2002 season. ???

Bryan

[Dick Schmidt]

Ohio,

I wouldn't spend too much time comparing Dave's levels with the output of Synergism. Both are based on the HDW figs. Dave uses the data to make pars while Bob is making daily variants and track to track adjustments. Both have the same root source.

Dick

Remember, my opinion is as irrelevant as yours.....

[RonTiller]

I hate to be one to contradict Dick Schmidt, co-creator of the whole TPR methodology, but it is important to clarify this matter.

Dave does not use HDW data to make his pars. He is not contractually allowed to resell Equibase data or an analysis of it, which pars are. All the raw data is freely available in many places, outside the HDW channel (at one time it was available for a fee from the DRF on Microfiche and then, I believe, CDs), and he, as well as the folks at Cynthia Publishing, utilize this freely available data in the making of their pars. [Insert pause for the usual round of replies accusing Equibase, HDW, TSN etc. for being data nazis, unfair, unreasonable, etc.]

Concerning, Synergism's TPR figures, I am painfully familiar with their construction, as I spent several frustrating days, with the assistance of Bob Purdy, reconstructing them exactly the way Bob makes them and testing their predictiveness versus other numbers and other ways of constructing TPR. Bob uses adjustments, in a very clever and sophisticated way, derived from Jim Cramer's numbers. That's all I can say (literally - it's complicated and confusing). Suffice it to say that you will get quite different results comparing TPR numbers from Synergism (using Bob's formulas and Jim's numbers), TPR right out of Pace Makes the Race (with no tweaking), and TPR using pars. It surprised even me!

Tom Hambleton's programs (both by Michael Perry) Win Formula and TPR95, both of which featured TPR numbers, did not use adjustments right out of the book. As Dick pointed out, these were used as starting points and further tweaked. Tom could tweak southern and northern california and a few more circuits but frankly, nobody could do all the manual tweaking necessary for ALL the tracks in North America. I am fairly certain that Tom did not have Delta Downs to Evangeline Downs tweaked at all, since he didn't play them.

Now there are many who feel that pretty much any numbers will suffice to handicap, as long as they meet the minimum threshhold of being 'not horrible'; that 'just good enough' suffices in the hands of clever, thoughtful and disciplined handicappers. If this is your perspective, then do the best you can with the numbers and spend your time handicapping instead of being a professional numbers maker.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[Dick Schmidt]

Oops, Ron is, of course, correct. I forgot that Dave does not use HDW figs for his pars, but builds his own from raw time data he collects. I should have remembered that, I've watched him him doing it.

Of all the various TPR numbers available out there, I think the one's in Synergism are the best. As Ron says, the adjustments are very complex, but the final result is outstanding.

Dick

If at first you don't succeed you're running about average.
- M. H. Alderson