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PaceAdvantage
03-08-2014, 02:34 PM
When I saw the futures were down big time last Sunday night in reaction to the Ukraine situation, I knew the time was ripe to sell some weekly put options on the S&P.

So Monday morning, I found that I was getting 50 cents on the 1,800 level S&P put options. They had a 90% chance of finishing out of the money. I thought that was a pretty good deal. So I sold some vertical put spreads.

The next morning, they were worth about a nickel, and Friday, as expected, they expired worthless. The easiest trade I have made in quite some time.

What were the chances that, with this strongly uptrending market, something like the Ukraine was going to move the S&P all the way down to 1800 in four days? Not very good. Plus you were getting a premium due to the nearly 20% spike in volatility that occurred Monday morning with the big drop.

I hope to remember this trade the next time we are in a strongly trending market and something more style than substance causes a big volatility spike.

PaceAdvantage
03-08-2014, 02:36 PM
BTW, I realize this is a big time trading redboard...lol...so feel free to call me a redboarder.

I should have posted this live, but didn't. I do, however, think it's a great "teachable moment."

Tape Reader
03-09-2014, 08:23 PM
I should have posted this live, but didn't. I do, however, think it's a great "teachable moment."

Agree 100%. (Not with the live post comment). I never thought anything wrong with red boarding in horse racing. In trading, I would encourage it. Nice trade Pace.

Tape Reader
03-09-2014, 10:18 PM
Here we go again. ES down about 4.75 at this time. Any thoughts? Anyone?

DJofSD
03-09-2014, 10:57 PM
Either BK or Tim on FM was surprised it lasted just one day.

Good for you, Mike.

lamboguy
03-09-2014, 10:57 PM
buy at support or sell at resistance. this evening Gold is right at support $1331. i would by here and stop out @ $1329

LottaKash
03-09-2014, 11:06 PM
BTW, I realize this is a big time trading redboard...lol...so feel free to call me a redboarder.

I should have posted this live, but didn't. I do, however, think it's a great "teachable moment."

PA, does this mean that we don't have to "click" on the Balloon-Boobs anymore?..:jump:

RaceBookJoe
03-10-2014, 10:04 AM
Agree 100%. (Not with the live post comment). I never thought anything wrong with red boarding in horse racing. In trading, I would encourage it. Nice trade Pace.

In horse racing, the race is over by the time a red-board hits...in trading there is always the potential for continuation. My redboard for the week is PLUG, been on a tear recently, crossing over $9 now. I don't usually follow lower priced stocks, but it kept pounding my scanner.

Tape Reader
03-10-2014, 11:28 AM
In horse racing, the race is over by the time a red-board hits...in trading there is always the potential for continuation. My redboard for the week is PLUG, been on a tear recently, crossing over $9 now. I don't usually follow lower priced stocks, but it kept pounding my scanner.

Wow! What a winner. Please, by all means, keep red-boarding.

ezpace
03-10-2014, 11:53 AM
a must read close to brilliant some say
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/03/05/the-trouble-with-relentless-bid-theories/

ezpace
03-10-2014, 12:06 PM
I should of posted this first
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/03/05/the-relentless-bid-explained/

RaceBookJoe
03-10-2014, 12:20 PM
Wow! What a winner. Please, by all means, keep red-boarding.

I rarely do any swings/ints , but PLUG got me interested, same with JO..the coffee ETN. Grabbed a small one in BAC and looking for next entry on break/close over $17.50. QUNR,SOHU also on my radar. I still find daytrade's to be easier to do overall. Not very active today, grabbed PLUG for a quick move, NFLX short and /CL a couple of times. Think I am just going to sit back and let trades come to me now. Good luck.

Tape Reader
03-10-2014, 12:58 PM
I rarely do any swings/ints , but PLUG got me interested, same with JO..the coffee ETN. Grabbed a small one in BAC and looking for next entry on break/close over $17.50. QUNR,SOHU also on my radar. I still find daytrade's to be easier to do overall. Not very active today, grabbed PLUG for a quick move, NFLX short and /CL a couple of times. Think I am just going to sit back and let trades come to me now. Good luck.

Thank you. Good stuff.

badcompany
03-10-2014, 01:04 PM
I rarely do any swings/ints , but PLUG got me interested, same with JO..the coffee ETN. Grabbed a small one in BAC and looking for next entry on break/close over $17.50. QUNR,SOHU also on my radar. I still find daytrade's to be easier to do overall. Not very active today, grabbed PLUG for a quick move, NFLX short and /CL a couple of times. Think I am just going to sit back and let trades come to me now. Good luck.

Pretty interesting long term chart. Apparently, it had a big run up during the dotcom bubble, then fell off a cliff.

A trend investor would've cleaned up on both the long and subsequent short side.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/B5D4F0E9-835E-4CD1-8417-70B9A2DF7D30-2495-0000055D60DFBEFF_zps89d5d310.jpg

DJofSD
03-10-2014, 01:10 PM
PLUG and BLDP

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BLDP+Interactive#symbol=bldp;range=my;co mpare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=o n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

RaceBookJoe
03-10-2014, 01:26 PM
Yes, BLDP has been a good one, I just focused on PLUG though. FCEL same type and I believe has earnings today. PLUG almost at $11 as I type this, good $ day :)

badcompany
03-10-2014, 01:36 PM
Got in @10.20. @12:09pm.
Great call!

RaceBookJoe
03-10-2014, 02:02 PM
Got in @10.20. @12:09pm.
Great call!

Great trade, I call those a "mortgage payment" trade...or 3,4 if you played it heavy ;) Have noticed quite a bit of sector rotation plays past couple months. Cant tell if its new money or just rotating, but sectors on my list have been banks,china,social media, solar, pharma was a big one and now these low-priced fuel-cell types. Definitely part of my new strategy is to watch for 1 or 2 stocks in a "new' sector taking money, then make list of the rest of that sectors stocks and scan for vol/price action. PLUG @ $11.34 as I type :)

badcompany
03-10-2014, 02:36 PM
I do something similar.

That's how I came up with RGLD.

Morningstar is good resource for that strategy:

http://news.morningstar.com/stockReturns/CapWtdIndustryReturns.html

RaceBookJoe
03-10-2014, 02:55 PM
Thanks for that link. I am flat PLUG until it sets a new high above $11.40

badcompany
03-10-2014, 04:07 PM
Thanks for that link. I am flat PLUG until it sets a new high above $11.40

No prob.

Hard to look at this list without PLUG jumping out at you.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/8FD64B29-C71D-4F2E-A8B6-FFF89C79378C-2495-0000059B0E0EE92B_zps0e3628a0.jpg

RaceBookJoe
03-11-2014, 09:37 AM
Looks like PLUG and maybe LJPC setting up to have a decent day. Will also be keeping BLDP and BYD on radar.

barn32
03-11-2014, 10:51 AM
BTW, I realize this is a big time trading redboard...lol...so feel free to call me a redboarder.

Redboarder

badcompany
03-11-2014, 05:12 PM
Apparently, the plug was pulled on PLUG. That's what Stops are for.

PaceAdvantage
03-11-2014, 05:15 PM
RedboarderToo late...I stole your thunder.

RaceBookJoe
03-11-2014, 05:38 PM
Apparently, the plug was pulled on PLUG. That's what Stops are for.

The $11 Puts had a nice move.

DJofSD
03-12-2014, 12:09 AM
I like this (https://twitter.com/BallysVegas/status/443558593363591168/photo/1) kind of red.

RaceBookJoe
03-12-2014, 10:12 AM
I like this (https://twitter.com/BallysVegas/status/443558593363591168/photo/1) kind of red.

Funny, I actually know the girl on the left. Will still be playing PLUG today, looking for a few smaller moves.

PaceAdvantage
03-13-2014, 04:55 PM
I just tried to sell a weekly vertical put spread (1795/1790) for 55 cents but couldn't get filled. LTD would be next Thursday.

55 cents wasn't even really enough, but it was the closest I could find to giving me the kind of value I received on the trade that started this thread.

The market is falling again into the close...let me see if I can get anything to bite before the bell.

Saratoga_Mike
03-13-2014, 05:31 PM
Apparently, the plug was pulled on PLUG. That's what Stops are for.

Citron Research released a very negative piece of research on it.

Saratoga_Mike
03-13-2014, 05:33 PM
I just tried to sell a weekly vertical put spread (1795/1790) for 55 cents but couldn't get filled. LTD would be next Thursday.

55 cents wasn't even really enough, but it was the closest I could find to giving me the kind of value I received on the trade that started this thread.

The market is falling again into the close...let me see if I can get anything to bite before the bell.

Credit has been acting pretty well the past two days. It would be odd to see much more of a correction (I know we aren't off much) without spreads widening.

lamboguy
03-13-2014, 05:55 PM
junior minors are EL FUEGO

badcompany
03-13-2014, 08:18 PM
junior minors are EL FUEGO


Good call on the Miners. I've been very pleased, so far, with the performance of the one I added to my portfolio:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/624add181b0f60e9abae89bbbc0b417e_zps6553a16f.jpg


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/7dee3d3999c206b3465f2400902a8996_zps61ad9c81.jpg

lamboguy
03-13-2014, 09:27 PM
Good call on the Miners. I've been very pleased, so far, with the performance of the one I added to my portfolio:

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/624add181b0f60e9abae89bbbc0b417e_zps6553a16f.jpg


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/7dee3d3999c206b3465f2400902a8996_zps61ad9c81.jpgi bought and held RGLD since it was under $10 years ago. its always been one of my favorite stocks.

i bought one for this run the end of 2013 SAND, its also a streaming royalty company, it just broke out this week. FNV is as good as RGLD, i missed buying that one for some reason.

these are the juniors that i own now---

BCEKF

SAND*

SVLC*

PROBF

GUYFF

TSRMF

PPP*

KLNDF

AKG----just bought this one today

i am looking for gold to hit between $1420-$1450 before i sell some of these. the ones that i put the * on are core holdings and i will take the consolidations with them. i would make FNV a core as well if i had it just like RGLD

usually on these miners when i sell, i just get my principle back and let the profits run and go look for other ones. that's what i did with the last run, and most of the stocks i held went way down and still haven't recovered. this time might be different., i hope anyway.

badcompany
03-14-2014, 11:04 AM
Going through that list, and doing a purely technical comparison, if I were to take a flyer on one, it would be:

PROBF

jms62
03-16-2014, 02:04 PM
Bought NUGT calls last week. I did really well with BB Weed stocks bought in Jan, I buy and automatically sell half on double. Would be interested in hearing of BB Junior miners that I can research. There isn't a lot of info on them when I google.

lamboguy
03-16-2014, 02:08 PM
Going through that list, and doing a purely technical comparison, if I were to take a flyer on one, it would be:

PROBFi forgot to post the best one, MUX, that company got solid management as well as great properties. the risk is simple on that one, the main mine's are located in challenging country's like Argentina and Mexico

Tape Reader
03-18-2014, 11:19 AM
Just bot FCEL @ 2.68. Thank you RaceBookJoe.

RaceBookJoe
03-18-2014, 12:20 PM
Just bot FCEL @ 2.68. Thank you RaceBookJoe.

Keep a tight stop, that sector has quieted down some since that activity spike.

Tape Reader
03-19-2014, 10:35 AM
Just bot BLUG @ 6.18. Thank you RaceBookJoe.

Tape Reader
03-19-2014, 01:02 PM
Just bot BLDP @ 4.85. Thank you DJofSD.

DJofSD
03-19-2014, 01:20 PM
Just bot BLDP @ 4.85. Thank you DJofSD.
I only mentioned the company -- no recommendation either way.

GL.

RaceBookJoe
03-19-2014, 01:53 PM
Just bot BLUG @ 6.18. Thank you RaceBookJoe.

Again, be careful..those picks were daytrades for last week, nothing current.

Tape Reader
03-19-2014, 02:04 PM
Again, be careful..those picks were daytrades for last week, nothing current.

All understood, Guys. Thank you.

PaceAdvantage
03-19-2014, 04:58 PM
The NQ futures really looked set up to drop today, prior to the FED statement. Then you have this Yellen character, who doesn't exactly inspire confidence, at least to me...just looking at her, she reminds of the proverbial deer in the headlights....

Too bad I didn't have the balls to buy NDX puts before the FED release...could have doubled my money in about an hour...but like I said...no balls....

Now it's heading back up into the close...whatever...

Robert Goren
03-19-2014, 05:19 PM
The NQ futures really looked set up to drop today, prior to the FED statement. Then you have this Yellen character, who doesn't exactly inspire confidence, at least to me...just looking at her, she reminds of the proverbial deer in the headlights....

Too bad I didn't have the balls to buy NDX puts before the FED release...could have doubled my money in about an hour...but like I said...no balls....

Now it's heading back up into the close...whatever...Isn't she doing what the conservatives here and other place want the Fed to do? Cutting back the buying of US Govt bonds by the Fed? Is this unexpected?

Saratoga_Mike
03-19-2014, 05:23 PM
Isn't she doing what the conservatives here and other place want the Fed to do? Cutting back the buying of US Govt bonds by the Fed? Is this unexpected?

He said "she doesn't inspire" confidence, and he's correct. Agree or disagree with BB, he had gravitas and performed exceptionally well during post-meeting news conferences. JY - not so much.

PaceAdvantage
03-19-2014, 05:33 PM
I didn't have a chance to watch her speak...have only seen pictures of her up until this point, but I did read some of her quotes in print during a live blog of today's press conference...her words...at least on paper...stammering and lots of "you knows"...did it come off that badly live on video?

Saratoga_Mike
03-19-2014, 05:39 PM
I didn't have a chance to watch her speak...have only seen pictures of her up until this point, but I did read some of her quotes in print during a live blog of today's press conference...her words...at least on paper...stammering and lots of "you knows"...did it come off that badly live on video?

You phrased it perfectly in an earlier post: she didn't inspire confidence. She just isn't polished, and she was a little too casual (if that makes sense).

Tape Reader
03-19-2014, 06:16 PM
You phrased it perfectly in an earlier post: she didn't inspire confidence. She just isn't polished, and she was a little too casual (if that makes sense).

She sounds so Brooklyn. Like Barbara Streisand.

Saratoga_Mike
03-19-2014, 06:26 PM
She sounds so Brooklyn. Like Barbara Streisand.

Hah! You know the Brooklyn posters are going to come out of the woodwork now!!!!

badcompany
03-19-2014, 09:22 PM
Hah! You know the Brooklyn posters are going to come out of the woodwork now!!!!

I don't think Brooklyn has the internet, yet. ;)