Honor Code Allowance

[RacingFan1992]

Hopefully things will go go well for Honor Code. Some might think "Really! An allowance race?" Ben Jones put Whirlaway in a 5.5 furlong sprint instead of the Flamingo and look how well he did.

[menifee]

4 horse allowance race = paid workout.

I would have preferred they put him in the Rebel to give him some experience, but the unintended consequence of the point system seems to be that trainers don't want to challenge their horses but preserve them till April.

[Leparoux]

Hopefully things will go go well for Honor Code. Some might think "Really! An allowance race?" Ben Jones put Whirlaway in a 5.5 furlong sprint instead of the Flamingo and look how well he did.
Not saying I'm against the move but you have to go back 70 years to find this example? Hm.

[Tom]

HC ain't no Whirlaway.
But, otoh, seeing how many have already dropped out after running in actual races this year, maybe this is a smart move. Do most 3 yos have one race in them? :rolleyes:

[Cratos]

Not saying I'm against the move but you have to go back 70 years to find this example? Hm.

Yes, you will have to go back a long way, but not 70 years because W. C. Stevens used an allowance race as the final Derby prep for Cannonade in 1974 and Cannonade coupled with Judger went off as the favorite and paid $5.00.

Before that time, M. A. Tenney brought Swaps to the Derby in 1955 with his final prep race being an allowance race and he won with a nearly front-running effort beating the great Nashua in the splendid time of 2:01.80 seconds.

[classhandicapper]

I think the Wood will be next. I don't see this as too bad of a move. He'd probably just get beat going straight into a tougher stake off the layoff. This way he gets an easier prep to get closer to 100% before being thrown to the lions. It's not ideal. I think you'd rather have 2-3 tougher preps to get ready for the Derby, but he's behind the other horses.

[RacingFan1992]

Not saying I'm against the move but you have to go back 70 years to find this example? Hm.

Didn't Frank Whitely use an allowance to start Ruffians' 3 year old campaign. I think it was called the "Caltha Purse." That was in April of 1975.

[Robert Fischer]

HC ain't no Whirlaway.


"Whirlaway, paid workout, Cannonade, Swaps, Wood, Derby, Ruffian"...


What about the 1 horse?

Does Social Inclusion have a puncher's chance of out-tripping Honor Code here and really making Honor Code work?

[nijinski]

After winning the Champagne , Seattle Slew had a season off and came back in an allowance . He then went on to win The Flamingo and the rest is history :)

Oh wait , he did that after The Swaps too .

[Thebigguy]

Im a huge fan of Honor Code. He is my Derby horse. I think he gets beat on Wednesday. I think the 1 will wire that field. That horse is very fast and will have a huge pace edge. Honor Code won’t be ready to run his best race on Wednesday, why would he be primed for a big effort now??? He needs to run big second and third time back. I dont see another horse in that race with any speed at all, no one will be near the 1 early. Honor Code will come with a run and finish second, probably 5-6 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher.

[burnsy]

Hopefully things will go go well for Honor Code. Some might think "Really! An allowance race?" Ben Jones put Whirlaway in a 5.5 furlong sprint instead of the Flamingo and look how well he did.

Its not that I say "Really, an allowance race".......its a case of WHY? With all these preps going, less than 2 months left, the horse is running in a 5 horse field......meanwhile a few of these others already are beginning to look like serious contenders firing big races. Not saying he has no shot yet, he has not run. But this is NOT a vote of confidence, bringing up other examples does not change it, He's definitely behind in training or would not run here in this spot. Sometimes if it quacks like a duck, its a duck. Uncle Mo did one of these and the race stunk even though he won it....people tried to make it sound like a good race....it was slow. The rest is history....he stunk up the Wood, he never made the gate in the derby. Yet, people were making him some kind of triple crown winner at the same time..:lol: Instead of comparing it to other moves, which makes no sense at all. I'll wait and see the race, see how he comes back and where he'll run again. But trying to make this sound like some big positive move is somewhat against reality...imo. Its almost an admission of the opposite. "He's been doing great but we are entering him Wednesday in 5 horse field just to be sure." and I'm sure they are thinking about all these other horses (examples) that took the same path and not the condition of THEIR horse.....yeah....ok! Its a definite "wait and see" deal....that's why he's entered here. I'll admit it, I'm not much of a fan of these horses...more of a realist trying to win bets and these 3yo's still have a ton to prove. I'm a fan of Wise Dan..he's a proven great horse. I probably won't be a fan of any of these until it shakes out in August because I'm trying to make objective judgment calls. A third or fourth place finish in a tough prep....says more than one of these "set up" deals.

[classhandicapper]

Im a huge fan of Honor Code. He is my Derby horse. I think he gets beat on Wednesday. I think the 1 will wire that field. That horse is very fast and will have a huge pace edge. Honor Code won’t be ready to run his best race on Wednesday, why would he be primed for a big effort now??? He needs to run big second and third time back. I dont see another horse in that race with any speed at all, no one will be near the 1 early. Honor Code will come with a run and finish second, probably 5-6 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher.

I agree on the pace setup and Honor Code's likely condition, but the #1 Social Inclusion ran on the Fountain of Youth day that looked speed favoring. So there's a chance he's not quite as good as he looks on paper. Tough to tell off one race. It will be interesting.

[burnsy]

On the other hand....if this horse or any of these wins a Triple Crown or even two out of three.....I'll be a fan then. Not before that, I'm not betting my hard earned money on "who I like" or are a fan of. So I don't bother with emotions. Will Take Charge was the best 3 yo last year and as mentioned in my original post.....no one knew that until late August.

[davew]

looks like Wed 3/12 Race 8 at Gulfstream Park

[lamboguy]

On the other hand....if this horse or any of these wins a Triple Crown or even two out of three.....I'll be a fan then. Not before that, I'm not betting my hard earned money on "who I like" or are a fan of. So I don't bother with emotions. Will Take Charge was the best 3 yo last year and as mentioned in my original post.....no one knew that until late August.
are you right on that one! with his running style he will win many more than he will lose. he is a very impressive horse.

[turninforhome10]

Looking at Honor Code and taking the Remsen win into consideration, I came up with this.
The Remsen has produced 4 KY Derby winners since it's inception in 1959.
Carry Back- Won Flamingo and Florida Derby
Northern Dancer- Won the Flamingo and Florida Derby
Go For Gin-2nd FOY Stakes, 4th Florida Derby
Thunder Gulch-Won FOY Stakes and Florida Derby
All through Florida and were in both preps.
Looking at the allowance on Wed, the question for me becomes this?
With the speedy blowout last and the look of a very slow field barring the :1: , do you send the horse? or will his class just blow by the others in the stretch.
It looks to be a bit of match race between Honor Code and Social Inclusion.
Social Inclusion is race fit, comes off a very nice maiden score, drops 3 pounds of the win and gets first Lasix. If he can stretch out, which his pedigree says yes, he could give Honor Code a good fight.
This is the last time Honor Code will face a field like this, maybe?
With Cairo Prince lurking in his future the connections better get all they can out of this dream prep.

[cj]

looks like Wed 3/12 Race 8 at Gulfstream Park

Wow, two completely outmatched horses in a five horse field. Can't wait for this one.

[letswastemoney]

Ta Bueno lost a 25k claimer by 10 lengths. If he doesn't lose this race by at least 20 or 30 lengths, that would seem strange.

[Maximillion]

The :2: We're All Set actually looks kind of interesting to me.No doubt moving forward....just wish there were more than 5 horses in the race.

[andtheyreoff]

Here's the past performances if anyone was wondering:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=GP&race=8&param1=960&param2=1920&param3=1143952

To me, if We're All Set can't finish ahead of Mexikoma and Tonalist, he won't be ahead of Honor Code. IMO, the only horse who's got even a remote chance of beating Honor Code is Social Inclusion.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Looking at Honor Code and taking the Remsen win into consideration, I came up with this.
The Remsen has produced 4 KY Derby winners since it's inception in 1959.
Carry Back- Won Flamingo and Florida Derby
Northern Dancer- Won the Flamingo and Florida Derby
Go For Gin-2nd FOY Stakes, 4th Florida Derby
Thunder Gulch-Won FOY Stakes and Florida Derby
All through Florida and were in both preps.
Looking at the allowance on Wed, the question for me becomes this?
With the speedy blowout last and the look of a very slow field barring the :1: , do you send the horse? or will his class just blow by the others in the stretch.
It looks to be a bit of match race between Honor Code and Social Inclusion.
Social Inclusion is race fit, comes off a very nice maiden score, drops 3 pounds of the win and gets first Lasix. If he can stretch out, which his pedigree says yes, he could give Honor Code a good fight.
This is the last time Honor Code will face a field like this, maybe?
With Cairo Prince lurking in his future the connections better get all they can out of this dream prep.

Call me crazy but I send the jockey out minus a whip.Let him do whatever.

[bgbootha]

You have to send him, if you let the :1: Social Inclusion off on the lead by himself, you will have to run a hell of a stretch to catch him. You go after it, sit just off the :1: , but you can't give Social Inclusion a few lengths and expect to run him down.

[Robert Fischer]

You have to send him, if you let the :1: Social Inclusion off on the lead by himself, you will have to run a hell of a stretch to catch him. You go after it, sit just off the :1: , but you can't give Social Inclusion a few lengths and expect to run him down.

It's a prep.

Honor Code is going to run his race. He'll stalk the pace and if he fires he'll tackle the leader at the top of the stretch.

[turninforhome10]

Hey Cincy,
Are we gonna learn anything about the quality of Cairo Prince from the Honor Code race?

[Ray]

Not saying I'm against the move but you have to go back 70 years to find this example? Hm.

That doesn't mean anything.. The reason u don't have a lot of successful examples is because there aren't many that try this.. I bet over the last 70 years u probably have less than 5 examples of a top rated derby horse taking this route. Today's game is totally different and I think it can be done. I'm not gonna be waiting in line to bet this horse but if he pulled it off it wouldn't be a shock at all. I'd rather see a stat like this move is 0 for 62 the last 70 years at least that tells u something but 0 for 5 (or whatever it really is) doesn't tell u anything.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think Shug cares much about whether Honor Code gets beat as long as he runs well. What I think they didn't want to do was ship him to face other very good horses while he's still less than 100% and get him buried. They just want to get something out of this race, though they would obviously rather see him win.

All that said, IMO there is a difference between running style and whether a horse is fast or slow. IMO Honor Code is a VERY fast horse. We saw that in his debut. His high gear was cooking. So if they do want to win, I think he's got the speed to put some heat on the #1 with a middle move.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Hey Cincy,
Are we gonna learn anything about the quality of Cairo Prince from the Honor Code race?

I don't think so.They met in a sit and wait race.It was yet another Aqueduct perversity for 2-3yo ala last year's Wood!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't think Shug cares much about whether Honor Code gets beat as long as he runs well. What I think they didn't want to do was ship him to face other very good horses while he's still less than 100% and get him buried. They just want to get something out of this race, though they would obviously rather see him win.

All that said, IMO there is a difference between running style and whether a horse is fast or slow. IMO Honor Code is a VERY fast horse. We saw that in his debut. His high gear was cooking. So if they do want to win, I think he's got the speed to put some heat on the #1 with a middle move.

Couldn't agree more Class.

[lamboguy]

i couldn't disagree more. if he can't win this race how is he going to win the stake race?

[cj]

i couldn't disagree more. if he can't win this race how is he going to win the stake race?

Why would he be geared up to win? He has 0 points for the Derby, so he better be 100% next time, not today.

[dannyhill]

Wonder what his actual fitness level for this race is. He has missed some works judging by their spacing. Looking forward to what he can do this year as a fan.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Why would he be geared up to win? He has 0 points for the Derby, so he better be 100% next time, not today.

Yeah this is the equivalent of a sparring session.Need to move around the ring,get a feel,give and take shots so you aren't in shock when the day of the fight comes.

[TMQ]

Sug put him in this race to win, even at 75% Honor Code should be able to destroy this field. He wont let the 1 get lonely, it is too hard to run down lone speed at Gulfstream right now. I would never bet him in this race but if he makes it to the derby I will pour some more money into him. :ThmbUp:

[davew]

over $300K to show on him

[TMQ]

Is he under 1/5?

[Beachbabe]

Social Inclusion may be more of a legit contender than Honor Code.
HC very hot and really fractious loading in the gate

[letswastemoney]

That was embarrassing for Honor Code.

[TheEdge07]

So much for the aided bias last time out....no.excuse today the better horse won today

[menifee]

What a complete waste - GP is a joke the way that track plays.

I'm not an Honor Code fan - but that race means nothing. You can't tell anything about the winner or anything about Honor Code because that track is so speed favoring. Additionally, it was a 5 horse field with lone speed. Honor Code was taken out of his game from the moment the race started.

They should have ran the horse in the Rebel.

[TMQ]

What a complete waste - GP is a joke the way that track plays.

I'm not an Honor Code fan - but that race means nothing. You can't tell anything about the winner or anything about Honor Code because that track is so speed favoring. Additionally, it was a 5 horse field with lone speed. Honor Code was taken out of his game from the moment the race started.

They should have ran the horse in the Rebel.


How far did he sit back?

[Al Gobbi]

Why would he be geared up to win? He has 0 points for the Derby, so he better be 100% next time, not today.

Honor Code actually has 14 points from winning the Remsen and finishing 2nd in the Champagne last fall. In all seriousness, all he would have to is finish at least third (maybe even fourth) in one of the 100 point preps and would get in.

[cj]

How far did he sit back?

A few lengths, 3 or 4, tried to move and couldn't get very close.

As for the track, if you've been watching today, I don't really see how a speed bias is the conclusion. Dirt always slants towards speed somewhat, but overly biased? I don't think so.

[cj]

Honor Code actually has 14 points from winning the Remsen and finishing 2nd in the Champagne last fall. In all seriousness, all he would have to is finish at least third (maybe even fourth) in one of the 100 point preps and would get in.

Thanks, I had forgotten those counted a little to be honest.

[andtheyreoff]

A few lengths, 3 or 4, tried to move and couldn't get very close.

As for the track, if you've been watching today, I don't really see how a speed bias is the conclusion. Dirt always slants towards speed somewhat, but overly biased? I don't think so.

Even so, wouldn't you say Social Inclusion had a huge edge because of his trip, even on a normal track?

[Valuist]

This race reminded me of the allowance race when
Uncle Mo made his 3 year old debut. Only problem is Honor Code doesn't have Uncle Mo's early speed to take advantage of the small field.

[TMQ]

A few lengths, 3 or 4, tried to move and couldn't get very close.

As for the track, if you've been watching today, I don't really see how a speed bias is the conclusion. Dirt always slants towards speed somewhat, but overly biased? I don't think so.


I have made a lot of money at Gulfstream lately, speed has been having a huge edge. Especially lone speed on the front end, no matter how good you are you it is tough to run them down there. I wouldn't put it past them to slow it down for Honor Code today though. I will have to watch the replays and look at the times.

[davew]

chart says pretty fast - at finish said track record

Fractions: :241, :472, 1:103, 1:343, 1:404 (:24.32, :47.52, 1:10.70, 1:34.68, 1:40.97)

[TMQ]

chart says pretty fast - at finish said track record

Fractions: :241, :472, 1:103, 1:343, 1:404 (:24.32, :47.52, 1:10.70, 1:34.68, 1:40.97)

I cant blame him for not running down those SLOW opening fractions. Almost impossible at that track right now. Or he wasn't ready, either way he has shown he closing stride's can be amazing. Get him back to the BIG A and see what happens... ;)

[classhandicapper]

I think Honor Code more or less ran as expected today. He's probably not 100%, but it wasn't a bad effort. He finished 17 lengths ahead of the 3rd horse despite making his move early.

IMO, if you are the "class horse" and you want to win, the right thing to do in this kind of spot is to make that middle move early and put some heat on the cheaper loose speed. That will usually make the cheaper speed crack even if it was loose on an easy lead. There was nobody behind him he had to worry about.

The shock was that when he DID try to make the middle move he failed to get even close. That other horse had a whole new and better gear than he did. That leads me to believe the winner was "legit" and ran a huge race. IMO it wasn't just a matter of him getting an easy lead.

IMHO both horse's form is still a little cloudy.

Honor Code's first start was on wet, he benefited a little from a fast pace in the Champagne, the Remson was run in such a fluky manner it's hard to draw to much from it, and in this race he missed some training coming in. So you really have to wonder how good is he is and how much he'll move forward.

The winner caught a speed biased track that surely didn't hurt him first time out and was loose today from the rail in a small field, but he did totally "freak" today and run much faster.

I'm not sure if I want to bet on or against these horses next time out. I'm not sure what to expect from either one next time out. But I have a funny feeling someone is going to make a huge offer for the winner very soon off the speed figure.

[overthehill]

I agree with you . i think the winner might be the best three year old in fla right now.

[Ray]

i couldn't disagree more. if he can't win this race how is he going to win the stake race?

It's called a prep race for a reason... How did game on Dude lose to Blingo then come back and beat will take Charge and MMM? Happens all the time in this game

[Izzy2742]

I wonder if Luis Contreras will keep the potential "Derby" horse or if they will opt for someone else. Gutierrez was able to keep his Derby horse a few years ago.

[Thebigguy]

That was embarrassing for Honor Code.

Lol really?

[tanner12oz]

Is social inclusion triple crown nominated?

[Cholly]

Social Inclusion looked pretty darn fast...Two months ago, the stables of TAP & Baffert looked loaded for the Triple Crown, but with every passing week they just get lower & lower on ammo--maybe one of their backers will come calling w/ checkbook in hand?

[Beachbabe]

Is social inclusion triple crown nominated?

Yes !

[1GCFAN]

I am sure offers are coming in for SI. Contreras could of been texting as he just had to hang on.

[ten2oneormore]

IMO It's the 1 1/16 distance at GP.If you give even an average speed horse the rail and an easy lead at that distance it's pretty much over.

[tanner12oz]

Florida looks stacked and some of these horses are going to have to ship elsewhere

[taxicab]

Did HC have wraps on today ?
It's tough to tell with him for obvious reasons.



http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/GP/2014/3/12/8/race-8-alw-at-gp-on-3-12-14

[cj]

Even so, wouldn't you say Social Inclusion had a huge edge because of his trip, even on a normal track?

Yes, of course. He wasn't pressured and he went very slow early.

[RXB]

Lol really?

You should've used the handle Retread this time. Get it? Bringing your usual charm to the proceedings, too, I see.

Internet handles are easy to change but the personality is rendered in stone. I loved where you said "I'm new" in that one thread where you, of course, were bashing somebody.

[burnsy]

True, but the horse has one other start and finished like tiger today without really working hard. He may not even need the lead after seeing that. The jock was motionless as Honor Code is getting whipped and pulling away with little urging....all the excuses in the world can't make this race close. I just watched the race again. This son of a bitch could be the real deal....I agree with the people that said that. Things are getting interesting in FLA.

[olddaddy]

Honor code didnt have the greatest trip, he was pushed 3 wide in the 1st turn and had to split in the backstretch. He was warm going into the gate and did act up there. The winner had everything his way, only speed, fast track and good post for his style. But damn he looked good, the win was so easy for him and I dont think he has even seen the stick in his first 2 races. I would think his next race will tell the tale if he is a freak or not.

[Striker]

Saw reports of 111 Beyer on twitter. that would move him to the head of the 3yo class.


https://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

[Robert Fischer]

Social Inclusion ran similar to a Wildcat Red or General a Rod, although he had no rival to tire him or push him.

He got a workout-like trip.

Honor Code caught a bad trip, and he also failed to fire to the level that the public had expected.

Honor Code did get a good setup in the Champagne while out-finishing Ride on Curlin. Cairo Prince may have hung a little bit in the slow paced Remsen Stakes.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think there is any way to tell how good Social Inclusion is yet.

He had a very easy trip and it was GP, but he also had a gear that Honor Code didn't have (at least in the form HC was in yesterday). He also drew off when finally asked and finished well. Until you see a horse like that actually get pressured, you don't know what's actually in the tank. There may be even more or he may wilt a little. It's similar to Samraat. You don't find out until they are tested. But the fact that HC couldn't test even test him says a lot. IMO HC would have gotten to a mediocre horse when he tried on the backstretch.

My feeling is that there's a risk that he got too good too fast and may go backwards. The real question is who is going to buy and train him after he gets sold because there's got to be a lot of people on the phone right now. lol

[Valuist]

I don't think there is any way to tell how good Social Inclusion is yet.

He had a very easy trip and it was GP, but he also had a gear that Honor Code didn't have (at least in the form HC was in yesterday). He also drew off when finally asked and finished well. Until you see a horse like that actually get pressured, you don't know what's actually in the tank. There may be even more or he may wilt a little. It's similar to Samraat. You don't find out until they are tested. But the fact that HC couldn't test even test him says a lot. IMO HC would have gotten to a mediocre horse when he tried on the backstretch.

My feeling is that there's a risk that he got too good too fast and may go backwards. The real question is who is going to buy and train him after he gets sold because there's got to be a lot of people on the phone right now. lol

Social Inclusion must be played against next time out. Being lone speed in a small field at 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream is about as perfect a setup as there is.

[olddaddy]

For anyone that has a bodog account, Social Inclusion is 200/1. Thats worth a bob or two.

[burnsy]

Honor code didnt have the greatest trip, he was pushed 3 wide in the 1st turn and had to split in the backstretch. He was warm going into the gate and did act up there. The winner had everything his way, only speed, fast track and good post for his style. But damn he looked good, the win was so easy for him and I dont think he has even seen the stick in his first 2 races. I would think his next race will tell the tale if he is a freak or not.

That's what impressed me. The Beyer is huge for any horse, let alone a second time starter, first time two turns and the time was fast.....but he did it like a walk in the park, rating as good as horse that's raced for a while. That was no speed pop, he cruised the oval like an old pro...all business and if continues to come home like that, he won't need to be on the front end either. I agree, the next race will talk volumes but that was impressive for a second time on any track. The third place finisher was 25 behind and he's finished way closer in similar or better company.

[classhandicapper]

Social Inclusion must be played against next time out. Being lone speed in a small field at 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream is about as perfect a setup as there is.

Believe me, I understand exactly what you are saying and used to make plays like that all the time....until a few too many came back to beat me.

I think there's a difference between a known quantity that gets a trip like that and an unknown quantity that gets a trip like that.

With a known quantity you can tell that the track/pace etc... had a primary influence on the result.

With an unknown quantity you can't be sure.

I think his 1st race even fell into that category. He wired on a day when the track was speed favoring, but it was hard to know whether he was a very good horse that just happened to catch a favorable trip or mediocre horse that lucked into a big win because of the track. Now we sort of know he was just a very good horse that would have won anyway.

I don't look to make plays against unknown quantities anymore because of pace/bias etc... Some of them are just very good horses. I'm not anxious to bet on him :lol: , but I'm not anxious to bet against him.

[olddaddy]

For anyone that has a bodog account, Social Inclusion is 200/1. Thats worth a bob or two.

Forget it. They cancelled my bet at 200/1

[TMQ]

Believe me, I understand exactly what you are saying and used to make plays like that all the time....until a few too many came back to beat me.

I think there's a difference between a known quantity that gets a trip like that and an unknown quantity that gets a trip like that.

With a known quantity you can tell that the track/pace etc... had a primary influence on the result.

With an unknown quantity you can't be sure.

I think his 1st race even fell into that category. He wired on a day when the track was speed favoring, but it was hard to know whether he was a very good horse that just happened to catch a favorable trip or mediocre horse that lucked into a big win because of the track. Now we sort of know he was just a very good horse that would have won anyway.

I don't look to make plays against unknown quantities anymore because of pace/bias etc... Some of them are just very good horses. I'm not anxious to bet on him :lol: , but I'm not anxious to bet against him.


They have been breaking track records all meet at Gulfstream. I really don't see how you can argue it was not a speed biased track. If you get the lead alone and you are any kind of decent horse it is almost impossible to catch them. 24.1 opening quarter, the race was over after the quarter pole.

[classhandicapper]

They have been breaking track records all meet at Gulfstream. I really don't see how you can argue it was not a speed biased track. If you get the lead alone and you are any kind of decent horse it is almost impossible to catch them. 24.1 opening quarter, the race was over after the quarter pole.

GP is often more tilted towards speed than most other tracks. As a result it also produces some fluky big performances. Yesterday may have been a day like that, but I didn't see any evidence the track was dictating the results.

In any event, that's the not the point I am making.

I am talking about the difference between known and unknown quantities. This horse is an unknown quantity. Even if the track was biased and the pace was slow he may still be a very very good horse that would have won big in neutral conditions. If he had more of a record and his ability was already clear, I'd be more willing to try to beat him next time because I'd be sure the track and pace had moved him up.

[TMQ]

Where you think they will run Social inclusion next? Florida derby? Either way I want no part of him. Honor Code felt the whip at the corner and did not respond. The jockey made the right call and just hand rode him home, put Honor Code in a big field and the horse will do the rest. He has something special about him IMHO. When he looks a horse in the eye he gets a whole new gear. :cool:

[cj]

They have been breaking track records all meet at Gulfstream. I really don't see how you can argue it was not a speed biased track. If you get the lead alone and you are any kind of decent horse it is almost impossible to catch them. 24.1 opening quarter, the race was over after the quarter pole.

The race was biased to speed yesterday due to the pace and the configuration of the track, but closers did ok in some other races.

[davew]

For anyone that has a bodog account, Social Inclusion is 200/1. Thats worth a bob or two.

was going to, is now 20/1 on my acct.

[TMQ]

What month was Social Inclusion born?
:confused:

[classhandicapper]

Huge offers supposedly coming in.

1.8M for 50%
2M for 50%
5M for 75%

[Robert Fischer]

Huge offers supposedly coming in.

1.8M for 50%
2M for 50%
5M for 75%

They had better take any of those immediately.

[menifee]

They had better take any of those immediately.

You are right - they better run to the bank with those offers. I'm not buying anything about that horse until I see him on a different surface with a horse going with him in the first quarter.

[andtheyreoff]

What month was Social Inclusion born?
:confused:

May 1, 2011. So a bit of a late foal.

As for those big offers: I wouldn't sell a horse I thought was a Derby contender no matter what the price, but this horse isn't a Derby horse in my eyes. I'd take the money and run with him.

[TMQ]

May 1, 2011. So a bit of a late foal.

As for those big offers: I wouldn't sell a horse I thought was a Derby contender no matter what the price, but this horse isn't a Derby horse in my eyes. I'd take the money and run with him.

Okay it makes more sense to me now, I would sell the horse. I can't consider an un-raced 2yr old, who is 3-4 months younger then most the field a derby contender....

[dannyhill]

Also depends on an individuals time of life. If the owners have millions and are not needing money, i can certainly understand chasing the Kentucky Derby dream. To sell or not to sell, depends. Either way i always root for the small barns to strike it big.

[letswastemoney]

I don't see why Social Inclusion isn't a Derby horse. He just beat the most highly regarded three year old in the nation with a hand ride! At the very least, Social Inclusion is in the mix of Derby discussion.

[andtheyreoff]

I don't see why Social Inclusion isn't a Derby horse. He just beat th hly regarded three year old in the nation with a hand ride! At the very least, Social Inclusion is in the mix of Derby discussion.

Yeah, but he did it with the easiest trip possible. Unless the Derby winds up totally devoid of speed, he's done nothing to prove he's got a shot.

[horses4courses]

Unless the Derby winds up totally devoid of speed

When was the last time that happened?
Ever??

[TheEdge07]

Yeah, but he did it with the easiest trip possible. Unless the Derby winds up totally devoid of speed, he's done nothing to prove he's got a shot.

Honor Code has done nothing this year to prove he's got a shot at the derby either..

[1GCFAN]

If SI was trained by TAP it would be the second coming...

[TMQ]

I don't see why Social Inclusion isn't a Derby horse. He just beat the most highly regarded three year old in the nation with a hand ride! At the very least, Social Inclusion is in the mix of Derby discussion.

When is the last time a un raced 2yr old won the Kentucky Derby? :ThmbDown:

[letswastemoney]

When is the last time a un raced 2yr old won the Kentucky Derby? :ThmbDown:
More colts that have raced as a 2 year old have tried, than those that haven't. I don't think it's a fair sample size.

[HoofedInTheChest]

Social Inclusion On Derby Path

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83804/social-inclusion-on-derby-path-after-big-win

[turninforhome10]

I remember a similar story. A trainer at my home track had a filly the set the track record for 5 fur in her first time out as a young 2yo. Phone calls starting pouring in. They turned down 2 mill and decided to take her to CD and run her against the boys, you know she set a track record. Our track was so jacked up with speed that a 10k nw2l was 2/5 of a second off the track record for 6 furlongs going 109.1. She bucked her shins at CD and was never the same horse. The owners never looked at the offers and the filly struggled to win her n1x at Columbus. This is when my boss used the statement, "that is when 2 fools met". The fool that offered and the fool that turned it down.
I also remember when Maggie Moss sold Peace Rules, when he was going good in FLA. I asked her if she was mad about selling the horse before he went on a tear. "He is one horse and I got the money when it was good and that money allowed me to buy 6 claimers with conditions". " Take the money as anything can happen".

[classhandicapper]

There's a huge difference between being a very good horse and actually winning the Derby.

If he doesn't win it, that does not make him a mediocre horse who got an easy trip at GP. He could still be a very good horse who just happened to get an easy trip, but not good enough, ready enough, or suited to winning the Derby.

I think the horse is probably very good (or at least ran very well the other day even though he was loose at GP), but he's not at the top of my Derby list yet.

People were saying the same thing about Samraat's easy trips a few weeks ago but he turned out to be a very good horse. If he doesn't win the Derby, he's still a very good horse.

[burnsy]

If SI was trained by TAP it would be the second coming...

True and if Honor Code won that race, that way, jokers on the internet would be talking "Triple Crown" today. Because it was not Honor Code there's ten thousand excuses about the track and all the other BS people come up with. That horse BELONGED in a race like that. Honor Code should be past that at this point. I don't even know if people watch horses and races closely, Honor Code never looked good at all, he looked like shit before the race, at the gate and the way he was running. No matter what they say........Honor Code has a problem. Social Inclusion looked like a million bucks......especially the way he rates and strides out. How many horses run like that in two races? People don't just pull out their check books like that for nothing.......there's been buzz about this horse since he started training. I think that seeing the actual "race" if you even want to call it a race...the horse pissed on that field and could of gone around again. Now even higher offers are flying in. Everyone is so hell bent on the derby and short sighted, this horse only has two races. Maybe he won't be ready (points) or win the derby but anyone with two eyes and half a brain can see this is a serious race horse if he stays healthy. Honor Code was in everybody's "top five" , which I always laugh at anyway because those "polls" are completely ridiculous and void of any reality other than opinion at this point and this horse just pissed on that like Honor Code was the "maiden breaker". People are offended because this proves those goofy derby polls are garbage.......Honor Code is probably is not in the top 20 unless they straighten him out. From the ease in which that horse ran and won and the way Honor Code looked, he'll never beat Social Inclusion....never in a million years. That's what worries me about the race, maybe he just beat a bunch of chumps up because he made the rest of that field look awful. If he comes back in a stakes race and runs well, he doesn't have to win, the horse has two freaking races! he could be the top of this class by summers end......that's why the checkbooks are coming out. Yeah, there's the derby fever affect but this horse has the potential to get better with time. Getting in on him for 5 mil( before the premier races), could be getting this horse on the cheap.....people with big money know this. They can take the 5 million now and if he fizzles out they made some big money.....or they can hold out (gamble) and if this horse wins some big races in the future....its probably worth 20 times that. That horse rated kindly....I'd be aiming for the Belmont.....but by now the "derby fever" has already set in and money is flying at this horse. If it does come down to the derby ......after what I just saw that horse has ten times a better chance than Honor Code does...if he looks like that again Honor Code probably won't even enter. Speed bias, that crap is laughable, he was not in same zip code of a maiden breaker, he didn't want to race, looked awful at every point and could not mete out his energy like the other horse did....good luck coming around in 5 weeks time. Meanwhile, this horse is running like this in two races....who has a better chance of upping their game? I'm sure the same people would be offering 5 mil for Honor Code (if they could) after seeing that........:lol:

[TMQ]

If he runs in the Wood and beats honor Code I will give him all the credit in the world. But Gulfstream is the most speed biased track around right now. SI is 3 months younger and barely raced. He will have problems, just like the other young derby contender......Bayern. If SI can beat a real field in a grade 1 it might change my mind, unless it is the Florida derby. A cant see a front runner winning this derby, too much speed

[TMQ]

More colts that have raced as a 2 year old have tried, than those that haven't. I don't think it's a fair sample size.


There have been 58 horses since 1937 without a 2-year-old start to try to win the Derby. Of the first 52, just two (Strodes Creek in 1994 and Coaltown in 1948) finished second and three others ran third. However, of the last six, one (Curlin in 2007) finished third and Bodemeister (2012) ran second despite a three-length lead with one furlong remaining.