Bayern

[Smarty Cide]

With Bayern's scratch in the San Felipe you gotta figure he goes right to the Santa Anita Derby and will need to finish top 2 to have a chance at making the Derby field... my 75-1 futures pool on him dont look as good anymore.... dammit

[letswastemoney]

All the bubble horses will drop out the last week. The points system may not even matter.

[Robert Fischer]

could work out either way.

If he wins the SA Derby while being relatively fresh, you've got as good a shot as anyone.
or If it's very problematic he may not race for a while...

[Smarty Cide]

how serious is a 1/4 bruise?

[Robert Fischer]

how serious is a 1/4 bruise?

I have no idea.
Could be the start of a quarter crack or abscess, or he could have kicked the stall...

[PhantomOnTour]

He didn't race at age two - I seriously doubt he would have won the Derby.
Now I'm sure he won't win it.

[Smarty Cide]

what other top contenders did not race at 2?

[CincyHorseplayer]

They're dropping like flies.Havana last week.Bayern and Bond Holder this week.

[Stillriledup]

They're dropping like flies.Havana last week.Bayern and Bond Holder this week.

If there was a way to "Fade" these horses in the "exchange", i would have loaded up against Bayern and that Hollendorfer horse, i would be 2 for 2 already, easy as pie. I would have had to lay 8 or 10 to win 1, but i would have done it.

[PhantomOnTour]

what other top contenders did not race at 2?
I cannot name low odds Derby runners with no 2yr old experience, but I know none has won it in a lonnnnnnnnnnng time...since Apollo in 1882.
That's a tough trend to buck.

Bodemeister came very close to winning it.
I think Indian Charlie is another who didn't race at age 2 but I am not sure...he ran 3rd in the Derby to Real Quiet and Victory Gallop.

Curlin also I think - he ran 3rd in the Derby too.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I cannot name low odds Derby runners with no 2yr old experience, but I know none has won it in a lonnnnnnnnnnng time...since Apollo in 1882.
That's a tough trend to buck.

Bodemeister came very close to winning it.
I think Indian Charlie is another who didn't race at age 2 but I am not sure...he ran 3rd in the Derby to Real Quiet and Victory Gallop.

Curlin also I think - he ran 3rd in the Derby too.

Also no winners from direct Nearctic male line descendants as Bayern is(Offlee Wild-Wild Again-Icecapade-Nearctic).There have been 4 through Northern Dancer in Big Brown,Charismatic,Sea Hero,and Ferdinand in the last 35 years.Plus Bayern is mile bred through Offlee Wild.

[theguarantee]

Personally, if it were me, I'd point him to the Preakness. Perfect race for him.

[TheGarMan]

Personally, if it were me, I'd point him to the Preakness. Perfect race for him.

That is a great point! --

Also, I love loading up on a new shooter, while the "sheep" bet the Derby winner on Preakness day at 3/1. :)

[bgbootha]

I love the idea of pointing Bayern toward the PReakness and not hurry him back. I just finished a long blog post about Bayern in the San Felipe right before I read that he was scratched. But watchign the replays and looking at some of the pedigree info was interesting.

[tanner12oz]

That is a great point! --

Also, I love loading up on a new shooter, while the "sheep" bet the Derby winner on Preakness day at 3/1. :)

the roi on this would be atrocious over the past couple years....Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra are the most recent two correct? Obviously Rachel didn't pay crap.

[letswastemoney]

That is a great point! --

Also, I love loading up on a new shooter, while the "sheep" bet the Derby winner on Preakness day at 3/1. :)
And just how many times does a new shooter win the Preakness? Nearly all the winners come from the Derby, even if it's not the Derby winner.

[iceknight]

That is a great point! --

Also, I love loading up on a new shooter, while the "sheep" bet the Derby winner on Preakness day at 3/1. :) The sheep also long for a TC champ, but don't most derby winners at least hit the board in the preakness?

[TheGarMan]

And just how many times does a new shooter win the Preakness? Nearly all the winners come from the Derby, even if it's not the Derby winner.

Yes, you are technically correct. (sorry ) The point I think I was trying to make was that in my experience people tend to "over bet" the derby winner on Preakness day. Thus possibly making a new shooter (Bayern) a more attractive bet for me.

I know Shackleford and Oxbow were both derby horses, but I got decent odds because (for what ever reason) Preakness day bettors love to blindly pound the Derby champ.

I hope that makes more sense then the first time it came out. :)

[Smarty Cide]

well Big Brown and All for the preakness was a great bet for me.... a 30-1 came in 2nd if i remember correctly

[TheGarMan]

well Big Brown and All for the preakness was a great bet for me.... a 30-1 came in 2nd if i remember correctly

You have a great memory :)

Indeed 'Macho Again" was a new shooter , finishing second at a big price.

[TMQ]

I don't like this move, even if he wins the SA Derby, I can't bet a horse with only 3 races and no 2 yr old experience. No thanks :ThmbDown:

[PhantomOnTour]

In the past 14yrs we have had Rachel, Bernardini and Red Bullet...so the record isn't too bad for horses that missed the Derby.
20% of Preakness winners in the last 15yrs didn't run in the Derby.

[Smarty Cide]

why didnt bernadini run in the derby?

[Smarty Cide]

Bayern has recovered quickly from foot bruise. Saw him gallop this morning. Will get one shot at final Derby prep, race TBD.

https://twitter.com/DRFPrivman/status/445243151595237376

[burnsy]

why didnt bernadini run in the derby?

He didn't break his maiden until March....his first stakes win/race (Withers) was the end of April like a week before the derby. That's why I think 2 yo experience is a non factor with some of these good horses. Some of the really good ones don't even get going by May.

[TMQ]

Bayern has recovered quickly from foot bruise. Saw him gallop this morning. Will get one shot at final Derby prep, race TBD.

https://twitter.com/DRFPrivman/status/445243151595237376
I believe they said the Arkansas Derby.

[Smarty Cide]

does it look like that will be the easiest prep? I guess he wants no part of California Chrome.. .running the 107 Beyer, maybe CC is just this years Big Brown. 107 is a strong beyer for a 50 point prep

[CincyHorseplayer]

does it look like that will be the easiest prep? I guess he wants no part of California Chrome.. .running the 107 Beyer, maybe CC is just this years Big Brown. 107 is a strong beyer for a 50 point prep

The good thing is the fastest 3yo route figures this year are from loose on lead horses who will duel in the big races(most likely).I want to see them run 107,111 when dueling over 9-10 furlongs.

[Smarty Cide]

how exactly are beyers computed? I mean i get that the big the number the better but reall what makes that number?

[Red Knave]

how exactly are beyers computed? I mean i get that the big the number the better but reall what makes that number?

:rolleyes:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=How+do+you+calculate+Beyer+figures%3F