Which is more relevant ????

[VinnFX]

Just started to bet horses for the last 2 month , and coming across a problem with races that were I need to figure th :confused: e best pace and speed , which usually are claming 25.000.00 and up . The key to this challenge is ie , it's a 1.5 race with 10 entries 5 of those entries are sprint horse and 3 are route horse , how do u tell which horse in the sprint categories can contend with the route horses

Thanks much

[thaskalos]

Just started to bet horses for the last 2 month , and coming across a problem with races that were I need to figure th :confused: e best pace and speed , which usually are claming 25.000.00 and up . The key to this challenge is ie , it's a 1.5 race with 10 entries 5 of those entries are sprint horse and 3 are route horse , how do u tell which horse in the sprint categories can contend with the route horses

Thanks much
Serious question for you:

Why do you feel compelled to bet on races where such questions arise?

Can't you find races to bet on where the route races are full of routers...and the sprint races are full of sprinters? Why make things tougher on yourself than they need to be?

These questions that you are asking here could confound even the most experienced horseplayer. Not all races are worth a bet.

[Robert Goren]

the conventional wisdom is that sometimes a front runner sprinter will hang on in a route race. A closing sprinter in a route is one of the worst bets at the track.

[VinnFX]

Thanks Thaskalos for your responses and yes Ur right why not pass that race up , I guess that's more of my ego wanting to figure everything out and , know that I can ... I will pass it up but would still like to figure it out

[VinnFX]

So from wat I gather the better the pace fig for the front runner in a punch of front runners would be a good choice , and the closer would be X out of the race , thanks for the input Robert

[maclr11]

It's kind of dangerous to make an assumption like that
Each race and horse unique. You have to make determination on individual cases. Sometimes you get sprint closers who turn into route speed horses.

Have they ran a route before?
Does breeding say they should route/sprint?
Do siblings route?
What do they look like?
In replays do they look all out or do they have more energy?
Does the trainer stretch out well, do you trust the trainer to know what hes doing when he enters a horse a route.
So many ways to try to analyze, but making a broad assumption seems pretty foolish.
It's not that difficult to figure out, but it takes some looking I would say.

I don't disagree about passing these races, but if you ever find a horse you think will appreciate the distance change they can provide great value.

[cutchemist42]

Serious question for you:

Why do you feel compelled to bet on races where such questions arise?

Can't you find races to bet on where the route races are full of routers...and the sprint races are full of sprinters? Why make things tougher on yourself than they need to be?

These questions that you are asking here could confound even the most experienced horseplayer. Not all races are worth a bet.

Yep, unless this race has to be covered in a multirace wager, I would avoid it unless I had some great info to give me confidence the horse can handle it.

[Clocker]

So from wat I gather the better the pace fig for the front runner in a punch of front runners would be a good choice

Not necessarily. If there a lot of front runners in a race, they can tire themselves out trying to take the lead, and then a closer can pass them in the stretch.

[VinnFX]

Yes mac11 they have run in the route before , would it be wise to consider , there pace , in the route they ran , even if it were 4-6 months out? Thanks for Ur reply helped a lot !!

[maclr11]

I'm not a pace numbers guy so I'm not the best person to answer that.
As for running style for sure consider it, especially in comparison to rest of field. But for actual numbers I've never used them so It's not at all my place to comment. If a sprinter with speed stretches out and the race does not have another speed type, than for sure he could be loose. But if race has 2-3 other speed types hard to really like that kind of horse. Same with closers if a horse is going to be loose hard to like a deep closer. But if race has lots of speed have to take extra looks at the closers even if they the numbers are not as good.

If they have ran routes before? How did they do? In what class. Is there a reason other than distance they ran really well or really poor. But those races would be good indicators under most circumstances on how they handle the distance.

All about solving the puzzle.

[JustRalph]

There are some very good percentages to go along with your question. Some of your competition ( other players) will have these bets whittled down to a science based on the distance,breeding and prior attempts at the distance.

This question also changes as you go up the class ladder.

Some guys will post some data for you, I'm sure, just as an example.

Ten years ago catching a nice first time going long horse coming out of a sprint race was guaranteed a pretty decent price. Not anymore. Everybody knows nowadays if the horse might get the distance or not. Pay attention to the odds on your questionable horse. If you're playing with a bunch of sharpies, they are already going to know.

[tanner12oz]

Just started to bet horses for the last 2 month , and coming across a problem with races that were I need to figure th :confused: e best pace and speed , which usually are claming 25.000.00 and up . The key to this challenge is ie , it's a 1.5 race with 10 entries 5 of those entries are sprint horse and 3 are route horse , how do u tell which horse in the sprint categories can contend with the route horses

Thanks much
pedigree.work tab..trainer roi stats

[Some_One]

If there were no question marks in a race, do you think you can outsmart the crowd to make a +EV wager? Doubt it. Learn to love the chaos races, the turf races and the polytrack races, as the more questions marks these races have, the more likely you can find something +EV

[thaskalos]

If there were no question marks in a race, do you think you can outsmart the crowd to make a +EV wager? Doubt it. Learn to love the chaos races, the turf races and the polytrack races, as the more questions marks these races have, the more likely you can find something +EV

IMO...the races without the distance eligibility questions are chaotic enough.

[Stillriledup]

Just started to bet horses for the last 2 month , and coming across a problem with races that were I need to figure th :confused: e best pace and speed , which usually are claming 25.000.00 and up . The key to this challenge is ie , it's a 1.5 race with 10 entries 5 of those entries are sprint horse and 3 are route horse , how do u tell which horse in the sprint categories can contend with the route horses

Thanks much

Some horses move like sprinters and some move like routers. Zenyatta won her first lifetime start in a sprint race, but if you eyeballed her win, you saw she was moving like a true route horse, big lengthy stride, not a "quick hitch" action, an experienced race watcher saw her debut and thought "love to see her going two turns"

If you dont have much time to review tapes and you want to find some way to sniff out a sprinter who might perish going two turns, i would say to just review the entire past performances of the horse and see how the horse has been managed. Horses who are true routers will show maybe one or two sprints and then the distances will increase, but a horse who's really a sprinter will have almost all his races in sprints.....trainers, for the most part, know their horses well, especially the elite trainers, so its a good idea to 'think like a horsemen' and look at the PPs and try and figure out what that trainer is thinking.

Sometimes there will be "no race" for a horse and the connections will force it and run a horse in the wrong race....so, sometimes you'll see even a good trainer putting a true sprinter in a route race but that's not really by design and its more of "this is the opportunity that came up' and they're really out of their element and just keeping their fingers crossed.

Know your horse, know that horse's stride and you'll have a much better guess at which horses can stretch out and which ones are probably better to avoid.

[VinnFX]

I am looking at a race today at Charles town , claiming race , for 4.5F would pace be a factor here or just speed , any thoughts guys ??

[cj]

I am looking at a race today at Charles town , claiming race , for 4.5F would pace be a factor here or just speed , any thoughts guys ??

There isn't a lot of rating going on at 4.5 at CT, they just bust out and run.

[VinnFX]

That's funny good yo know thanks

[ezpace]

Serious question for you:

Why do you feel compelled to bet on races where such questions arise?

Can't you find races to bet on where the route races are full of routers...and the sprint races are full of sprinters? Why make things tougher on yourself than they need to be?

These questions that you are asking here could confound even the most experienced horseplayer. Not all races are worth a bet.
****************
Right pick your spots Mr. T
but are you aware in your
city a H trainer in the 1940's
developed a speed chart with a twist .
The scale is unlike any you have probably seen
12pts.per second where each 1/5th is +/-2or3pts
depending, and the PARS are even more
esoteric in their design.

There are very few of these charts around
i was given one and had to take an OATH OR
VISIT the inside of a car trunk 8^)
My fav play off this chart are sprint horses in a route Dirt orTurf going
against mostly route horses. Sometimes the
point difference to their advantage is 15 to 20 pts
The chart of course also works at Beulah or Saratoga
where all are sprint or all route horses.
I've read many of your posts (good)
and wondered if? you have something simular pace/speed chart ?

[thaskalos]

****************
Right pick your spots Mr. T
but are you aware in your
city a H trainer in the 1940's
developed a speed chart with a twist .
The scale is unlike any you have probably seen
12pts.per second where each 1/5th is +/-2or3pts
depending, and the PARS are even more
esoteric in their design.

There are very few of these charts around
i was given one and had to take an OATH OR
VISIT the inside of a car trunk 8^)
My fav play off this chart are sprint horses in a route Dirt orTurf going
against mostly route horses. Sometimes the
point difference to their advantage is 15 to 20 pts
The chart of course also works at Beulah or Saratoga
where all are sprint or all route horses.
I've read many of your posts (good)
and wondered if? you have something simular pace/speed chart ?

I've heard of this "esoteric" speed/pace chart...but I haven't actually seen it.

But I have experimented with several charts of my own design...and I haven't been able to formulate any hard-and-fast rules as a result of my research.

Route-to-sprint conversions (and vice-versa) remain the most shaky part of my handicapping, unfortunately...

[VinnFX]

Ok guys been at the track for the past couple of days with no success can't see the angles no more , trying to build a solid foundation and not happening , any thoughts from u guys is appreciated , this I really starting to get to me

[Grits]

Ok guys been at the track for the past couple of days with no success can't see the angles no more , trying to build a solid foundation and not happening , any thoughts from u guys is appreciated , this I really starting to get to me

Honestly speaking. Stop. Though two days is not any length of time at the track. Step back away from betting, simply stop. If it's "starting to get to you" this quickly, you're not clear headed enough to improve at present. Take several days break, and then go back. Chasing is futile.

[VinnFX]

Ok thanks for the sound advice , grits

[Grits]

Clear your head, then go back. Relaxed and better. ;)

Sometime, we have long stretches in our lives that may be stressful. Because we enjoy the track, we enjoy handicapping and wagering, we carry on and stay in the game. But during these times, our circumstance remains with us. Unflinching. Consequently, we continue ... unable to hit water if we fell out of a boat. I wish you well.

[whodoyoulike]

Ok guys been at the track for the past couple of days with no success can't see the angles no more , trying to build a solid foundation and not happening , any thoughts from u guys is appreciated , this I really starting to get to me


There seems to be a number of new posts regarding being new to handicapping horse races. Have you seen the following thread?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111491

I remember how frustrating it was to learning the "ropes". There are a number of excellent handicappers on this site who are always willing to help others. Maybe, they can ask YOU questions about an aspect of handicapping and you or another newbie provides the answer(s). Several responses from different individuals is probably better. I think if you were to research an answer, you'll be able to understand it better.

So you're not overwhelmed, there should only be 1 or 2 questions asked at a time (until an answer is provided). The questions shouldn't be open ended (the answer(s) should be provided in a timely manner). The individual asking the question should be the one providing the answer.

To give you an idea of what I was thinking,

On Wednesday, 3/12/14 at Mountaineer (Free Bris PP)

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=MNR&race=4&param1=936&param2=936&param3=620312

and Turf Paradise

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=TUP&race=4&param1=1020&param2=1020&param3=676704

Both are 6f dirt races.

QUESTION 1

In both races, how fast will the leader run to the half (4f)?

QUESTION 2

Looking at the first two entries in both races. How will they run? Refer to racing charts to see examples of 1 or 2 sentence descriptions.

The answers will be provided by the racing charts.

I don't know how this will turn out but hopefully, we can provide a crash course in understanding various handicapping aspects.

With the upcoming TC and BC races, you just may be able to enjoy it better. So, what do you think?