Inaccuracies in time, turn time, etc.

[thoroughbred]

I have been reading various posts where an analysis is done that depends on comparing the times of horses at various locations in a race. Turn time is one example.

I have some comments to make about the accuracy of time calculations in general..

Pont No. 1: When horses are racing around a turn, the extra distance that a horse must run depends on how far from the rail the horse is. If we assume that there is about 3 feet between each "lane" as we go from the rail horse out toward the center of the track, then the extra distance that a horse must race in going around the turn is about one length per "lane" position. Under these conditions the actual numbers are:

Position from Rail Horse Extra distance in lengths
1 0.94
2 1.88
3 2.83
4 3.77
5 4.71

If we approcimate a length to be 0.2 seconds, then, for example, a horse that is 3 positions out from the rail lhorse will add: 2.83 x 0.2 = 0.57 seconds to his time compared to the rail horse. All other positions wide of the rail will have similarly different numbers.

These values are large enough that ignoring them will make any calculation, where time differences are important, extremely inaccurate. If turn time, for example is calculated where there is a portion of a turn, then a large error in the calculation can occur.

Note: These numbers remain exactly the same, regardless of the radius of the turn "circle."

Am I wrong in thinking that this important factor is not usually taken into account?

Point 2: Even the approximation of 0.2 seconds per length is not accurate. We all know that horses, with rare exception, slow down as the race proceeds. So one length represents a longer time later on in the race than at the beginning. And, each horse has a different velocity profile. So unless we know the speed of the horse at exactly the point where we are trying to adjust time by lengths behind, this will introduce another inaccuracy.

The size of the inaccuracies, it seems to me, can swamp out the results of the calculations making many of those efforts a futile exercise.

Comments please.

[GR1@HTR]

Very good Tbred. Also, at many distances turn time doesn't even measure much of the turn. In matter of fact, in routes greater than 10F no part of the turn is calculated in turn time. Below is an article on turn time. Don't look at it as a promotion of the SW but as an education of what Turn Time measures on each part of a race.

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRMonthlyReport-JUL2000.pdf

[Tom]

I agree that nothing is very accurate in this sport/game.
You have to hope that enough things are wrong in opposite directions to cancel each other out.
I have to laugh at the idea of using 1/100's for race times. When I am comparing horses at Aqu, FL, Mrn, wherever, the pace call differences in any single horse might be 44.4, 45.5, 46.7, 46.0, 47.0.
The heck with the 1.100/s - I am happy to get the fullseconds in the neighborhod. Whenever I handicap a race without a computer to spit out the nunmmbers, I am pretty loose-1/5 a second per length is fine for me.
And If I have two early horse, one that runs 46 and the other runs 46.2, I call that equal. And in my own track profiles, I break it down by full lengths, - no fractions.
With final speed figures, if a horse is withing 4-5 lengths of the top fig horse, I give it equal chences as far as speed goes. The only way I can overcome the inaccuraciues is to demand a large enough margin of error to make the numbers meaningful.
Tom

[Lefty]

Me, i'll take the hundreths. And for the DRF not to pub. them shows they're still in 19th century.

[sq764]

You mention 1/100's, which I agree is ludacrous. I think what is more of a problem is the workouts. You know that the clockers hold some of these workouts in their 'back pockets' and pad them a bit.

Also, I am very weary of horses coming back in 2-3 months with absolutely no works. How many times do we see these horses win? You are going to tell me that they weren't worked out several times on the farm?? Don't think so.

[ranchwest]

OK, here's another thought to ponder. Times are measured off of the leading horse. Other horses are measured in lengths off. Let's just say that a horse goes :23 for the first quarter and another horse is 3 lengths off. Not only do you have to figure out how you are going to evaluate those lengths, but did you ever consider that the other horse is 3 lengths short of the quarter? How do you know how long it really takes him to get to the quarter? What if you're evaulating Wise Times and he's 25 lengths off in a grade 1 and wins the race? What was his real time up the stretch?