Tampa Bay Derby/ San Felipe

[Smarty Cide]

Any 3yo's worth watching this week?

[pondman]

Schoolofhardrocks-- expect this one to make an appearance in the triple crown. Can bury this weak San Felipe field. My pick at about 10-1.

[Thebigguy]

Any 3yo's worth watching this week?

IMO the Tampa Bay Derby is coming up very weak. I dont think much of either Pletcher horse. I guess Conquest Titan might be OK, but he better start winning races and not clunking up for 3rd.
Both Baffert horses in the San Felipe could be OK. Bayern is obviously the one with the huge upside though. Im guessing they run 1-2 and complete a very chalky exacta.

[andtheyreoff]

The best 3 year old on Saturday isn't in the Tampa Bay Derby or the San Felipe.

[tanner12oz]

Conquest titan solidifies his spot in the derby this week....

[bgbootha]

My thoughts and blog post on the Tampa Bay Derby

My Picks = :4: :5: :2: :6:

Your morning line favorite is the 2 SURFING USA who is coming off a second place finish to derby contender Top Billing in an OC75k back at the end of January. Most would assume this would be a jump up in class coming out of a OC75k to a graded stakes, but the reality is that most of the horses in this race are probably much more suited to be running in those OC75k or ungraded stakes races. The inside post will help Surfing USA who will want and should be able to grab the rail and the pace during the early parts of the race. One interesting note about Surfing USA is that he yet to run two races on the same race track. All three of his previous races came from different tracks, from Belmont, to Aqueduct down to Gulfstream and now finally over to Tampa Bay. You can’t throw out this Todd Pletcher trained horse, and he may just be the best of this bunch.

The second choice in the morning line is CONQUEST TITAN who is coming off a distant second in the G2-Holy Bull losing to Cairo Prince who closed the Kentucky Derby futures pool as the favorite. Conquest Titan ran a good race but was clearly second to Cairo Prince that day. Conquest Titan hasn’t raced since the 25th of January and made a strong move from the back of the pack to come up strong in the Holy Bull. This race sets up pretty well for Conquest Titan who made need some help from up front to get a decent pace to run at. In what appears to be a relatively weak field, Conquest Titan has shown the ability to beat horses in this caliber before.

Another interesting horse in this race is the 6 VINCEREMOS who is coming off a nose victory here in Tampa Bay in the Sam F Davis stakes at odds of 12-1. Vinceremos also likes to come off the pace and has been working out well coming into this contest. Another Todd Pletcher entry will be sure to be part of the later part of the race and it may come down to who has the better trip between Vinceremos and Conquest Titan on who has the best chance to catch the leaders coming down the stretch.

EAST HALL is clearly the most raced horse in the field, but has already shown that he can’t run with these other horses, in fact East Hall hasn’t won a race since breaking his Maiden back in the middle of October, he may come up to steal a few points and get a part of the Trifecta or the Super, but I don’t’ see this horse being anywhere near the front come the finish line.

An interesting horse that I will have to include in my horizontals on this day would have to be the 4 COLTIMUS PRIME; besides having the best name in the field, this is a horse that has improved in every race he has ran and makes a move over to the dirt. Coming off two solid races on the Woodbine all weather surfaces, this is a horse that likes to be on or near the front and was barely caught by a nose in his last outing. There are plenty of things to allow other betters to cross this horse off their sheets, he finished second in a weaker field his last time out, is coming off a three month layoff and his connections are relatively unknown. That being said, he has shown constant improvement and the move to the dirt for an early pace horse can only help. He did run a 92 Brisnet speed rating his last time out which is near the top of this field. If he continues to improve he could have a decent shot to win this race at a good price.

This is a wide open race and the pace scenario looks to be interesting. At first glance it looks like it should be a fairly quick pace, but a great deal of the pace is coming from the outside in the 8 and the 10 leaving the 4 Coltimus Prime and the 2 Surfing USA on the inside to battle it out. It wouldn’t be crazy to me to see the Coltimus Prime wire this field, but if the pace is pressed, I would look for one of the favorites to eat them up coming down the stretch and steal a gate at the Kentucky Derby.

[ManU918]

The best 3 year old on Saturday isn't in the Tampa Bay Derby or the San Felipe.

Exactly.... Bobby's Kitten is making is 3yO debut.

[Thebigguy]

Exactly.... Bobby's Kitten is making is 3yO debut.


And will likely lose to the Proctor horse.

[andtheyreoff]

And will likely lose to the Proctor horse.

No way Bobby's Kitten loses. He has the potential to be a turf monster.

[Robert Fischer]

I don't like anybody in the Tampa Bay Derby.

seems like a fairly close race.

Maybe a play against the popular horse = Conquest Titan needs to win this race to continue to claim a place on Derby lists.

Maybe a key on Surfing USA, the best Pletcher horse.

Cousin Stephen was the best of the Sam F. Davis bunch

Ring Weekend can hit the board at big odds. Hy Kodiak Warrior is in a similar group.

[PhantomOnTour]

East Hall (I used him last time) can get a piece also.

[ManU918]

And will likely lose to the Proctor horse.

Ummmmmmm No.

[ManU918]

No way Bobby's Kitten loses. He has the potential to be a turf monster.

Potential? Hes already a graded winner on turf and finished 3rd in the Breeders Cup while be given one of the worst rides in the history of the sport. He will win this race then most likely take a shot in the Blue Grass.

[Robert Fischer]

East Hall (I used him last time) can get a piece also.

He seems solid.
One thing that I use as a general rule is to try to avoid playing horses who got the same setup as others in previous race and didn't win their individual group. Not really fair considering the other horse in his setup group was Top Billing. But he didn't run bad in the FOY and there are no Top Billings here, and he gets a way better post on a track that shouldn't be so speed favoring as the one Wildcat Red and General a Rod ran so big on.

[letswastemoney]

I can't decide between Surfing U S A and Hy Kodiak Warrior. If going by TimeformUS numbers, Surfing U S A has to look VERY good.

[Leparoux]

It's always trendy on here to talk about how bad certain Derby preps come up but I think it is way too early to give up on some of these. Many have huge pedigrees, are lightly races and obviously have some upside.

:5: Conquest Titan obviously can improve on his second start of the year. Showed speed early last year and now has become a one run closer. The horse to beat IMO.

Not real big on any of the horses coming out of the Sam F. Davis but the one I am watching is the other Casse horse, Matador.

Wise guy horse in this race is likely the :9: Hy Kodiak Warrior who was last seen running 3rd to Commissioner and and Top Billing.

Really good card at Tampa on Saturday, looking forward to it.

[snickster]

I am liking #3 Matador. This horse was put in 150K stakes first out at WO and went off at 3-1 starting 3 lengths off and finishing 3 lengths off very even race against Go Greely who beat #10 Tuscan Getaway by 5 lengths in 44/4 fractions in previous race. Tuscan Getaway came back to run a respectable race on pace against Conquest Titan so they are all in the same league. Matador then was run in two distance turf races and did OK but bombed in next where some horse in the race bumped him badly (per PP comments) as he was 4th by 3 lengths at top of stretch then dropped back badly. In last ran very good race against #6 Vinceremos. John Oxley owner and Mark Casse trainer must have thought a lot of him to run him in that 150K stakes first out as a maiden (as these two are smart and experienced horsemen) and he ran very very good in that race. That race showed he has a lot of ability. He is just learning to run and in particular learning to run a distance of ground now so I would give him a pass on that 4th by 1 length in the last race to Vinceremos.

There is really no superstar in this race.

Conquest Titan looks like the most class horse but he really just picked up the pieces in last race the Holy Bull and just beat Intense Holiday who then came back to win the Risen Star but against not much. Also he lost to mediocre horse We Miss Artie and bombed out in the BC Juvenile.

Surfing USA got beat by Top Billing in last who came from the clouds to get 3rd in the Fountain of Youth with East Hall 4th, so I cannot think that Surfing USA has that much class.

Vinceremos just barely beat Harpoon by a nose in last out - Harpoon had to struggle to get 5th in the Gotham last week.

Tuscan Getaway might surprise at big odds as he also ran well against Go Greely at 6F WO like Matador did and he could take the lead and not look back. However, I have to think that Matador is a better horse

The rest I don't see anything special and have not really produced any very impressive races.

WPS #3 Exacta Box 3 with 2-5-6-7-10

[bks]

California Chrome is the morning line favorite, but i think he'll be right around 2-1 with Midnight Hawk with Kristos not far behind. CC is a standout to me.

Like the Rock Hard Ten colt on the outside to finish second.

[Grits]

This race will likely be nothing beyond a chalkfest, still the #5-Sawyer's Hill making his 3rd start could possibly make a bit of noise. And too, as you noted the #8, getting 1st lasix. This one off quite a long layoff though. Good luck.

[Thebigguy]

Potential? Hes already a graded winner on turf and finished 3rd in the Breeders Cup while be given one of the worst rides in the history of the sport. He will win this race then most likely take a shot in the Blue Grass.
You guys are way overrating him. I think he gets beat tomorrow.

[PhantomOnTour]

Getting a lot of hype, but I just cannot have him in the winners circle.
No way.

Hate to use that old phrase, but he's just too slow, period.
Will not get there.

[PhantomOnTour]

Exactly.... Bobby's Kitten is making is 3yO debut.
Neat how three other E types scratched from this race :faint:
Bobby will roll at 1-5

[ManU918]

You guys are way overrating him. I think he gets beat tomorrow.

LOL...That's what you call a public workout.

[pondman]

Tampa Bay Derby
:6: Vineremos
:1: Ring Weekend

San Felipe
:8: Schoolofhardrocks
:9: Midnight Hawk

[speed]

Tampa Derby #9. Barn change makes this horse a major player here. looks like an honest pace as well. Maybe get the 7 to plod in late as well.

[bks]

Trevor went "need to sprout wings" on that call. Horse is real, and man I wish Bayern was in today.

All about Louisville now.

[Grits]

This race will likely be nothing beyond a chalkfest, still the #5-Sawyer's Hill making his 3rd start could possibly make a bit of noise. And too, as you noted the #8, getting 1st lasix. This one off quite a long layoff though. Good luck.

The 5 ran no more than half of this race... The 4 could've gone around once more.

[Robert Fischer]

4 was much the best horse + had a great trip

9 showed the same problems with lugging-in and hanging + mike smith gave a horrible ride

[tanner12oz]

Kinda odd start and stop ride on schoolofhardrocks...

[Robert Fischer]

crazy early Odds for the TBD

:2: = unexpectedly high public odds - usually a bad sign

:9: = unexpectedly low public odds - usually a good sign
-----------------------------
opinion
20cent super 258 2589 2589 :1: = $3.60
20cent super 258 2589 :1: 25789 = $5.40

public
20cent super 359 3569 3569 :1: = $3.60
20cent super 359 3569 :1: 23569 = $5.40

+ $5 across on :9:

[Tee]

:8: Cousin Stephen & :9: Hy Kodiak Warrior

[Robert Fischer]

Tampa Bay Derby
:6: Vineremos
:1: Ring Weekend
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[iceknight]

Tampa Bay Derby
:6: Vineremos
:1: Ring Weekend
Nice call!

[sammy the sage]

Pondman should move his tack EAST... :lol:

very good call SIR!

[pktruckdriver]

Tampa Bay Derby
:6: Vineremos
:1: Ring Weekend

San Felipe
:8: Schoolofhardrocks
:9: Midnight Hawk

If you did this in that contest you are the leader I would think, because it looked like no one had the exacta for Tampa, great call.

Patrick

[PhantomOnTour]

Getting a lot of hype, but I just cannot have him in the winners circle.
No way.

Hate to use that old phrase, but he's just too slow, period.
Will not get there.
They made him the favorite, and he flopped.

If that jock Centeno were to go to NY he would pull off wins like that everyday :faint:
Great job to catch that bunch napping and run away

[precocity]

pondman congrats? did like the GM colt today but did not play at all today
so maybe you will congratz me in the future? GOLDENCENTS! STILL A BC WINNER enough said! oh by the way I bet all gm horses especially the turf.
not today had my son soccer tournament all day long. good luck in the future
HOMIE!

[Tom]

The one really looked like he was going to go right to the front, I thought, but that was a far I saw him going. Head's up ride for sure - when you are looking under your shoulder on a last out maiden winner in an alleged stakes race, you have taken the other riders to school.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Count me as scratching my head in both the TB Derby and the Honeybee.I had them 44 x 2 and 63 x 3 staring at major pace duels.In both there were uncontested leads.

I can deal with the greenness and immaturity of 3yo's.Just not the greenness and immaturity of their connections!

[Tom]

Did you catch the Cappy at Aqueduct - 1 horse racing, the rest of the riders holding up pin wheels going Weeeeeeee!

[overthehill]

I was mistakenly confident that the 2 was going to the lead having gone easily to the front in his last route race and being just off the pace in the sprint. clearly I know nothing about horseracing. Perhaps the jock on the 2 was told to just get his horse to relax if he didnt make the lead right away.

I dont know what to make of the race. but I suspect that california chrome is moving close to the top of the derby contender list.

[nijinski]

Nice to see a NY bred and a Cali bred on the trail . But steep odds with
these statebred results .