Fill in the blanks - If _______ does _______ he will be the favorite for the derby.

[Smarty Cide]

If _______ does _______ he will be the favorite for the derby.


fill in the blanks

[Ocala Mike]

If Honor Code trains sound, he will be the favorite for the derby.

[horses4courses]

If Honor Code trains sound, he will be the favorite for the derby.

Honor Code is due to run in the Rebel March 15th.
He will need to run decently to be favorite for the Derby.

[TheGarMan]

Fill in the blanks:

If "Shared Belief" does a workout , he will be the favorite for the derby. :D :D :D

I was somewhat surprised that people were still throwing money at him last weekend during pool III.

A horse who hasn't put in a recorded a work ages took in enough action to make him the 5th or 6th pick in the pool. :confused:

Edited for Accuracy: At 15/1 he was actually the 5th pick in the pool.

[Cratos]

If _______ does _______ he will be the favorite for the derby.


fill in the blanks

If Honor Code stays healthy he will win the Derby with a shot at taking the Triple Crown; his biggest threats will be his stable mate, Top Billing and Strong Mandate with D. Wayne in charge. This horse is an awesome specimen to see and the best stride that I have seen since the late Ruffian.

[Smarty Cide]

what final prep will honor code go to?

[PhantomOnTour]

If D Wayne Lukas does right by Strong Mandate he will be the favorite for the Derby.

[bgbootha]

If Cairo Prince wins the Florida Derby he will be the Derby Favorite.

[Smarty Cide]

If Cairo Prince wins the Florida Derby he will be the Derby Favorite.


thats a good horse

[Thebigguy]

If Cairo Prince wins the Florida Derby he will be the Derby Favorite.

This feels most probable IMO.

[bgbootha]

The Florida Derby is looking really strong in comparison with some of the other 100 point fields that are lining up. If either Top Billing or Cairo Prince win, they will be the favorites for the Derby in my opinion. I still can't discount General A Rod who I think will benefit from the added distance. I don't like WildCat Red with the added distance, but he will be there to make sure there is an honest pace.

If you compare the Florida Derby path the others don't seem to have a great deal of 'headliners' other than NY right now. The Wood will be round three of Samraat vs. Uncle Sigh, and you can probably throw In Trouble again into that mix along with NOble Moon.

But the others don't seem to have much. Candy Boy is the only thing in the Cali circuit right now making noise. The Bluegrass offers some intrigue with a couple of Turf horses thinking about making the leap over. And the Arkansas and Louisiana still dont' have storylines attatched to them.

Of course we will see a number of these horses come up out of the wood work over the next few weeks with three more weeks of these 50 point preps.

[goatchaser]

I have a future bet on Mexikoma for the Derby. !st I hope he gets to run in the Derby....and then he's below the odds I bet him at. Will feel stupid either way if he doesn't make it in. After watching him run in the Breeders last year...I kind of got hooked on him. What the heck right?

[Cratos]

what final prep will honor code go to?

I believe Honor Code is scheduled to run in the Rebel on 3/15 and if all goes well he will run back in the Arkansas Derby on 4/12 and if he wins and performs exceptional well in that outing he will probably be the Derby favorite.

[menifee]

If Tapiture beats Honor Code and Strong Mandate in the Arkansas prep races (Rebel and Arkansas Derby), he will be the favorite for the Derby.

[overthehill]

i think the the contenders are so evenly matched now that who ever improves the most over the next six weeks will end up being a strong contender and maybe the favorite. I would add Bayern from the west coast and Anchor Down from florida to the usual suspects as they both have lots of room to improve. I would like to see Anchor Down in the Wood.

[tanner12oz]

I hate drinking the top billing kool aid but he's the kinda horse that if he gets the right setup he will simply inhale the competition which will make the public money pour in on him

[MutuelClerk]

If whatever horse lights it up the next two months he will be the favorite and I will bet against him in a huge derby field.

[rastajenk]

If anything does greater than a 105 BSR in his final prep, he will be the favorite for the Derby.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

If anything does greater than a 105 BSR in his final prep, he will be the favorite for the Derby.

Alas, how soon we forget about War Emblem.

You're probably right though - if any horse runs a stickout Beyer prior to the Derby, then it could easily be the chalk.

Some old timers like me will downgrade the chances of a horse like Honor Code, with only two starts and not enough "bottom" prior to the Derby, but it can be done.

Still the most exciting two minutes in sports.

[letswastemoney]

Top Billing will be the favorite in the Derby.

As someone that spends a massive amount of time in social media, it's obvious this is the most talked about horse, and the size of his fanbase resembles Union Rags.

He only needs to finish at least second next time to be the Derby favorite.

[letswastemoney]

I wouldn't be so quick to assume the high Beyer horse is the favorite.

Verrazano ran a big Beyer before the Derby and his odds drifted upwards. They all bet the Shug horse, Orb, and the Calvin Borel horse, Revolutionary.

This is the one race where common logic in betting patterns gets thrown out the windows, and where thousands of bettors just go by famous names and connections.

[PhantomOnTour]

With the BC Juvenile winner out and no big smashing performance by a 3yr old yet, Derby favoritism is wide open.
And ofcourse, we still have the biggest preps yet to come.

Cairo Prince or Strong Mandate are the ones I think may fill the bill.
If Cairo handles the Fla Derby like he handled the Holy Bull then favoritism is likely his.
I think Strong Mandate will step forward in his next race at OP; maybe a big step. Couple that with the fact that Lukas trains him and he may be the chalk.

Too early to tell.

[Smarty Cide]

i think the the contenders are so evenly matched now that who ever improves the most over the next six weeks will end up being a strong contender and maybe the favorite. I would add Bayern from the west coast and Anchor Down from florida to the usual suspects as they both have lots of room to improve. I would like to see Anchor Down in the Wood.


i guess Bayern goes next to the Santa Anita Derby?

[bgbootha]

i guess Bayern goes next to the Santa Anita Derby?

Yeah I really like Bayern after watching a couple of replays this morning. That horse may have something and finally give candy Boy out there on teh West Coast some competition. I don't like the idea of entering in teh Derby with a total of three races.

[Thebigguy]

Top Billing will be the favorite in the Derby.

As someone that spends a massive amount of time in social media, it's obvious this is the most talked about horse, and the size of his fanbase resembles Union Rags.

He only needs to finish at least second next time to be the Derby favorite.


Dont take this wrong way like you did in the other thread, but your wrong. Top Billing chugged up for third last week. Now hes likely going to the Wood, where he is most likely going to chug up for 2nd or 3rd again. Top Billing is not even the best 3yr old in Shugs barn. He only needs to finish second in his next start? What are you talking about? So now the Derby chalk can have an allowance win a 3rd and a 2nd, and be the favorite? Your wrong, your way wrong actually. Union Rags won a Grade 1 as a baby, finished 2nd in the BC. Top Billing has a maiden win at Laurel and an allowance win. I could keep going, but its not even really worth it. You have a tendency to just make stuff up. You can say Im attacking you, but its not meant to come off that way. There is pretty much no way Top Billing will be the Derby favorite, and you say it like its a done deal. I cant tell though, are you a Top Billing fan? You start a thread on Derbytrail about the hype going overboard, and now here you say he is going to be the Derby favorite. As for Verrazano, his Wood came up slow. So that’s a bad example.

[iceknight]

Dont take this wrong way like you did in the other thread.The discussion is about who will be the perceived favorite for the derby, not who the poster thinks will win or is a fan of in the race. Anyhow, we need to wait for the other preps and see how they perform- as of now it is quite wide open

[Tom]

If the rail horse does get Calvin to ride him he will be the favorite for the derby.

[classhandicapper]

If Tapiture beats Honor Code and Strong Mandate in the Arkansas prep races (Rebel and Arkansas Derby), he will be the favorite for the Derby.

That's a pretty good one because it may be more likely than currently believed. That horse is improving rapidly.

[rastajenk]

Alas, how soon we forget about War Emblem.
Yeah, maybe I did; but his big fig came in the oft-overlooked Illini Derby, which isn't even on the points schedule anymore.

My intended point was that big Beyers seem to be more and more rare since then, and whoever can post one will probably do it with a visually impressive run with a daylight margin that will get the chattering classes chattering. I could have picked a 108, or even a 110 (those used to happen); but I lowered my aim to fit these modern times.

[FlyinLate]

Dont take this wrong way like you did in the other thread, but your wrong. Top Billing chugged up for third last week. Now hes likely going to the Wood, where he is most likely going to chug up for 2nd or 3rd again. Top Billing is not even the best 3yr old in Shugs barn. He only needs to finish second in his next start? What are you talking about? So now the Derby chalk can have an allowance win a 3rd and a 2nd, and be the favorite? Your wrong, your way wrong actually. Union Rags won a Grade 1 as a baby, finished 2nd in the BC. Top Billing has a maiden win at Laurel and an allowance win. I could keep going, but its not even really worth it. You have a tendency to just make stuff up. You can say Im attacking you, but its not meant to come off that way. There is pretty much no way Top Billing will be the Derby favorite, and you say it like its a done deal. I cant tell though, are you a Top Billing fan? You start a thread on Derbytrail about the hype going overboard, and now here you say he is going to be the Derby favorite. As for Verrazano, his Wood came up slow. So that’s a bad example.

Dont take this the wrong way, but with all due respect all you are doing is picking fights and your arguments are far from sound. Horse racing isn't all about 1st, 2nd, 3rd place finishes, its about how the race was run and who overcame obstacles. While I'm not a massive Top Billing supporter, not seeing how people perceive him as a strong threat is simply ignorant. I wouldn't exactly say he "chugged up for third". Did you happen to watch the race, let alone the Gulfstream card that day? It was an absolute conveyor belt, all day, just as GP tends to be on big stakes days in order to promote ridiculous times and track records. He didn't "chug up", in fact, he was the only horse making up any ground in the last quarter that race, and one of only a few that entire day. Why do you think Shug is sending him elsewhere next? Horse racing is all about opinions and half the game is debating who is stronger, but you argue like an over-opinionated 16 year old who knows it all.

[PhantomOnTour]

Dont take this the wrong way, but with all due respect all you are doing is picking fights and your arguments are far from sound. Horse racing isn't all about 1st, 2nd, 3rd place finishes, its about how the race was run and who overcame obstacles. While I'm not a massive Top Billing supporter, not seeing how people perceive him as a strong threat is simply ignorant. I wouldn't exactly say he "chugged up for third". Did you happen to watch the race, let alone the Gulfstream card that day? It was an absolute conveyor belt, all day, just as GP tends to be on big stakes days in order to promote ridiculous times and track records. He didn't "chug up", in fact, he was the only horse making up any ground in the last quarter that race, and one of only a few that entire day. Why do you think Shug is sending him elsewhere next? Horse racing is all about opinions and half the game is debating who is stronger, but you argue like an over-opinionated 16 year old who knows it all.
East Hall gained ground on the leaders at every call in that race, including the last 1/4.
Here are his BL: 13 - 9.75 - 9 - 7.5 - 6.5

[CincyHorseplayer]

East Hall gained ground on the leaders at every call in that race, including the last 1/4.
Here are his BL: 13 - 9.75 - 9 - 7.5 - 6.5

That doesn't count.That is an all race outrun line.Nothing to be gleaned from it when never contentious at any point.

[PhantomOnTour]

That doesn't count.That is an all race outrun line.Nothing to be gleaned from it when never contentious at any point.
I was simply pointing out that another runner gained ground during that race, and that cannot be disputed.

By the way - see Jacks R Wild from the 4th at Aqu today. He fits your definition of gaining ground while being outrun (see his last race)...he performed very well at a nice price today...while gaining ground at every call :)
Ran 2nd at 16-1

[CincyHorseplayer]

I was simply pointing out that another runner gained ground during that race, and that cannot be disputed.

By the way - see Jacks R Wild from the 4th at Aqu today. He fits your definition of gaining ground while being outrun (see his last race)...he performed very well at a nice price today...while gaining ground at every call :)
Ran 2nd at 16-1

HAHA!I hear you but without looking is that a fairly low level race?Because if so I can bet outrun lines if it was vs a fast race or higher than today's class leve.Shippers and/or droppers=excellent.But at upper levels and to me especially on turf outrun lines are absolute illusions.(and I know,I was seduced by them!)

[PhantomOnTour]

HAHA!I hear you but without looking is that a fairly low level race?Because if so I can bet outrun lines if it was vs a fast race or higher than today's class leve.Shippers and/or droppers=excellent.But at upper levels and to me especially on turf outrun lines are absolute illusions.(and I know,I was seduced by them!)
NY bred An1x...and, yes, I liked him because he had been running in fast races compared to what the rest of the field had faced.
Sort of like a class drop within the same class...and as you hinted, there are no class drops within a class among GrStks foes.

[TMQ]

If Honor Code wins the Wood, he will be a heavy favorite. :cool:

[Smarty Cide]

If Honor Code wins the Wood, he will be a heavy favorite. :cool:

does that mean if samraat beats honor code that he will be the fav?

[TMQ]

As long as Cairo Prince doesn't win the Florida Derby.

[Smarty Cide]

If California Chrome wins the SA Derby he will be the favorite

[rastajenk]

If anything does greater than a 105 BSR in his final prep, he will be the favorite for the Derby.
And if he does it in his final two, he'll be a strong favorite. :p

[BlueChip@DRF]

Debbie / Dallas