Arkie derby forcast

[ceejay]

70% chance of rain for Hot Springs on Sat.

[Show Me the Wire]

Fooled me I thought it was your analysis.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

percpetion is reality

[OTM Al]

I remember watching at least one card there when it was wet, but can't remember it too well as OP is not a track I watch regularly. Is there a regular change in track bias ala Aqu (strong speed bias when wet, off the pace when dry) when the track becomes damp?

[Valuist]

Fooled me too. I thought it was going to be Ceejay's analysis of the race.

[ceejay]

OK. Here's my analysis.

Samrty Jones is a speed ball and will be the chalky. it's hard to like speed like that from the 11-hole. Pedegree is only OK for the slop (and the distance). I will try to beat him.

I would like Borrego at 10-1, but as th second choice, no thanks. I'm not convinced that the La Derby was much of a prep.

My keys will be shadowland (3), Purge (5), and Trickey Taboo (6).
Trickey taboo had a stalking, but wide trip and made up ground in the Lane's End.

Purge has speed and might have more in the tank than the SJ @ 9f.

I'm willing to forgive Shadowland for just not showing up in the LaDerby and give him another chance. Could contend with a stalking or mid-pack trip.

If sloppy, I'm going to look at Pro Prado (387 Tomlinson, and a win over the OP slop) anfd maybe Harvard Ave.

[Show Me the Wire]

PURGE sounds good to me, interesting equipment change, blinks off. My sentiment is with Smarty though. $5 mil bonus on line.

Regards,
Show Me the wire

perception is reality

[sam i am]

$10 w-p
3 $20

$4 ex str
3/1-4-5-9-10-11 $24

$1 exbox
3-1-5-10 $12

$1 Tri

3/1-5-9-10-11/1-5-9-10-11 $20

$1 tribox

3-1-5-10 $24


Go Team Valor.

[cj]

Shadowland and Mr. Jester are the two I will consider betting, but only at double digit odds.

Shadowland has improved every time out, and had a bit of a rough trip last time out.

Mr. Jester had no shot tracking that crawling pace last time, this is his 3d off the layoff with two tough trips to build on.

[cato]

Current Conditions at OP

RAIN

Track is SLOPPY

Cato

[ceejay]

I just saw the lane's End on TVG flashback. They called that track fast but it sure looked wet to me. Of note 'cause of Tricky Taboo's performance.