traynor
03-02-2014, 02:40 PM
Current:
Mar02 In 409 SELECT Pace races 13 21 25 in 145 Matches 34% Win Rate 68% ROI 1.23 8.10
Yonkers is considered by many as "too tough to make a consistent profit." That is definitely not the case. The 13 21 25 designation above is essentially a class rating--and however you figure class will probably turn up the same contender(s) in most races.
There are two interesting points here. First, speed, pace, class, drivers, trainers, recency, current form and all the other "basic factors" are ignored completely as non-profit distractions to the primary goal of making money by wagering.
Second, "value wagering" is not just ignored--it is used in reverse. New Yorkers are some of the slickest, smartest, most insightful race analysts around. Chasing rainbows in the mutuel pools of New York is not a good strategy. By limiting wagers to odds LESS than 3/2, the strike rate is a healthy 68%, with an ROI of 1.23. The highest mutuel is the value on the end--8.10.
In plain English, it is more useful (and more profitable) to wager on the low end mutuel prices than on the high end. By "demanding" (one of the flakiest gerunds around when used in the context of horse races) higher odds, one not only gives up a very nice strike rate, but also gives up most of the profit.
Mar02 In 409 SELECT Pace races 13 21 25 in 145 Matches 34% Win Rate 68% ROI 1.23 8.10
Yonkers is considered by many as "too tough to make a consistent profit." That is definitely not the case. The 13 21 25 designation above is essentially a class rating--and however you figure class will probably turn up the same contender(s) in most races.
There are two interesting points here. First, speed, pace, class, drivers, trainers, recency, current form and all the other "basic factors" are ignored completely as non-profit distractions to the primary goal of making money by wagering.
Second, "value wagering" is not just ignored--it is used in reverse. New Yorkers are some of the slickest, smartest, most insightful race analysts around. Chasing rainbows in the mutuel pools of New York is not a good strategy. By limiting wagers to odds LESS than 3/2, the strike rate is a healthy 68%, with an ROI of 1.23. The highest mutuel is the value on the end--8.10.
In plain English, it is more useful (and more profitable) to wager on the low end mutuel prices than on the high end. By "demanding" (one of the flakiest gerunds around when used in the context of horse races) higher odds, one not only gives up a very nice strike rate, but also gives up most of the profit.