BRIS pars

[andicap]

In everyone's opinion, how valuable are the BRIS par figures in deciding whether today's race is better or worse than average.

And how about in anomoly races like state-breds? Does BRIS account for these?

[Tom]

I see a lot of races (SB, NW2lt, etc.) where par might be
90 and nothing has ever run above a 73!
I think they rely on purse values for a lot of non-claiming pars and this is wrong since the worst races - SB- have the larger purses.
If you go to their BBS, you download the national BRIS par tables and look at all the pars. You will see a lot of discrepencies in pace pars. Don't know if this is on their webpage.
In better races, at better tracks, I find the speed pars to be pretty good and useful in my handicapping. For stakes races, classified allowances, high claiming prices, etc. they seem to be as good as any I've seen.
When I do cheap races, I usually just look at the best two figs last race and then handicap against those as the "par" for the race.

Tom

[FortuneHunter]

Andicap,

I did a quick Q......

For Aqu Inner 6 furlong open Allowance (all conditions)

I have 632 lines:

Avg E1 = 89.9
Avg E2 = 95.9
Avg LP = 83.2
Avg SP = 85.6

Of those 632 lines I have 88 lines that are winners:

Avg E1 = 92.1
Avg E2 = 100.0
Avg LP = 90.2
Avg SP = 94.2

I would submit that these winning lines would constitute the BRIS par times for Aqu Inner 6f Allowance.

When I download tomorrows Aqu Card this evening I will post the official BRIS par times for comparison.

P.S.
For Aqu Inner 6 furlong State Bred Allowance (all conditions)

I have 43 lines:

Avg E1 = 89.1
Avg E2 = 93.6
Avg LP = 88.4
Avg SP = 88.1

There is a significant drop for NY bred restricted Allowance Races. BRIS better make a distinction in par times for state restricted races.

I will try to post the official BRIS par times for a state bred AquI 6f Allow also for comparison.

[FortuneHunter]

Here are the official BRISnet PARS for Aqu Sat. 12/15 Race 9 Inner 6 furlong Allowance Purse 45k compared to what I estimated in the previous post:

-----------BRISnet---------FH
Avg E1------95----------92.1
Avg E2-----101---------100.0
Avg LP------87----------90.2
Avg SP------93----------94.2


I would say that they are relatively close

Thanks, FH