I will calculate my win percentage

[1ejp]

Starting tomorrow March 1st I will use Mahl's formula to establish my advantage (if any).

I will record $2 win bets for eight weeks, with a minimum for 30 bets per week for a total of 240 bets (min).

I will record:

1. date
2. track and race#
3. race conditions (abbrev)
4. horse w/# and post pos
5. final odds
6. result of horse
7. payout

My recording will be by pen and notebook to be transferred to an excell sheet for sorting.

I hope the results are positive :confused: wish me luck :)

[Robert Goren]

What is Mahl's formula?

[PICSIX]

Never heard of him until I found this article........

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/1996/dec/19/gambling-expert-mahl-dies/

[1st time lasix]

and exactly why would others truly care what your win percentage is????

[wisconsin]

He's referring to Huey Mahl's optimal betting, where the average mutual and your strike rate creates an optimal percentage of bankroll per wager.

I look forward 1ejp's results.

[1ejp]

and exactly why would others truly care what your win percentage is????


You don't have to "truly care".

I think some others might want to learn how to find their win percentage and I am giving an idea of how to the forum.

Take what you need and leave the rest.

[1ejp]

He's referring to Huey Mahl's optimal betting, where the average mutual and your strike rate creates an optimal percentage of bankroll per wager.

I look forward 1ejp's results.

This is correct, and thank you for the well wishes. :) :)

[Light]

If you bet online with an ADW like Twinspires, every bet you make is recorded. You can then find any stat you want on your own performance. Plus it is more realistic than when you play under mythical situations because the influence of stress on decision making is absent when you make mythical bets.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Good luck with your test run.

Don't forget to record surface and distance. In the "Basics of Winning" class presented by Dave Schwartz, his metrics spreadsheet had a number of other things to track as well - perhaps you might want to consider a "confidence factor" or a note of the primary reason to bet the horse, besides of course the odds line overlay.... ;)

[Tex9Down]

I'm interested in how you do. Best of luck.

[appistappis]

put me down in the interested category and best of luck.

[Robert Goren]

I am interest too. I am also interested in getting a copy Mahl's book on optimal betting.

[Dahoss2002]

If you bet online with an ADW like Twinspires, every bet you make is recorded. You can then find any stat you want on your own performance. Plus it is more realistic than when you play under mythical situations because the influence of stress on decision making is absent when you make mythical bets.
So very true.......... I wanna puke when I pull up my win/loss on Twinspires :)

[1ejp]

Good luck with your test run.

Don't forget to record surface and distance. In the "Basics of Winning" class presented by Dave Schwartz, his metrics spreadsheet had a number of other things to track as well - perhaps you might want to consider a "confidence factor" or a note of the primary reason to bet the horse, besides of course the odds line overlay.... ;)

Great ideas. Thanks for the input.

[1ejp]

After week one I have learned something already.
I'm freaking terrible. :mad:

I placed 25 win wagers hitting 3. That's right 3.

paying 17.40, 5.80 and 11.40.

I came off a couple of winners because of odds and ate the chalk.

I think 30 wagers is going to be tough. I might chart a min of 20 instead.
On top of these wagers I lost all of my exotics.

[wisconsin]

I am interest too. I am also interested in getting a copy Mahl's book on optimal betting.


It's more like a pamphlet.

My dad had a copy 30 years ago, can't find it, and I am trying to find one myself.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

After week one I have learned something already.
I'm freaking terrible. :mad:

I placed 25 win wagers hitting 3. That's right 3.

paying 17.40, 5.80 and 11.40.

I came off a couple of winners because of odds and ate the chalk.

I think 30 wagers is going to be tough. I might chart a min of 20 instead.
On top of these wagers I lost all of my exotics.

3 for 25? Not great, but could be worse. 12% strike rate. If your average mutual was $17.00, you'd be in the black..... :)

If you think 30 plays per week is too high, by all means reduce the number of bets....or....you could assign a "confidence factor" of some sort, or try to separate your bets into "prime" and "action" categories like Beyer recommended in 'Picking Winners' so many moons ago. I found that by tracking my "action" bets which I had little confidence in, I was able to identify a couple of angle plays that became more "prime" in nature. Don't worry about a 12% strike rate now - you want to play all types of races, then narrow down the ones you do well in, and toss the ones that are difficult, and that strike rate will be 20-30% or higher in no time.

You'll more than likely need at least a couple of hundred, if not closer to five hundred bets down before some obvious patterns emerge. There's been some debate on the forum about paper vs. real money wagering - personally, I think it depends on the mindset of the player, since some of us can only learn through the pain of the school of hard knocks.

As for losing the exotics, those patterns will begin to emerge as well. I find that only about half of the races are even bettable today if one looked at results - that is, a race where a longer priced horse won, or where a longer priced horse ran second, or the rare event in which the first two finishers were both longshots. The other half of races are where chalk is prominent in both slots, and only the folks with the advantage of a stupendous odds line or super high strike rate can make money in the long run there.

A few years ago when one could wager on Hong Kong, the announcers were joking for a while about a player called "The Parkview Pirate". I don't have a clue who this person was, but during the meet one year the Pirate went on an unbelievable run of his top selection for the day losing like 44 or more times in a row. (Keep in mind they only race two days per week in Hong Kong). He would pick bombs every now and then, but was mostly on heavy favorites, and even sometimes on the steam horses - and with a minute or two to post they would find about the latest pick from the Pirate. What started out as a bit of joke would turn into groans if the Pirate's latest horse was one of the picks touted by the announcers. The kiss of death. Then the ADWs dropped Hong Kong. I don't know if his streak ever ended.

3 for 25? The Parkview Pirate would be jealous.

[1ejp]

Thank you for the encouraging advice. I have to say there were two times I was scared off my selection by the post time odds. After losing many races in a row I bet the favorite and lost anyway. If I would of stayed with my selections I would've had 2 more wins at nice prices.
I will keep it going but cut back the 30 races to 20 and try to learn when to pass a race.
Thanks again.

[wisconsin]

Thank you for the encouraging advice. I have to say there were two times I was scared off my selection by the post time odds. After losing many races in a row I bet the favorite and lost anyway. If I would of stayed with my selections I would've had 2 more wins at nice prices.
I will keep it going but cut back the 30 races to 20 and try to learn when to pass a race.
Thanks again.


I am a firm believer in raising my bet if the odds are higher than I expected.

[1ejp]

I am a firm believer in raising my bet if the odds are higher than I expected.



If my handicapping skills improve to a better strike rate my confidence should improve and I wont pull of my selections and in some cases be able to increase my wagers with higher odds.

[Ted Craven]

Huey Mahl published a number of articles on his wager sizing approach, and other topics, in the first dozen or so issues of the Follow Up journal of the Sartin Methodology.

They are available in the Sartin Library at Paceandcap.com

Ted

[pondman]

If my handicapping skills improve to a better strike rate my confidence should improve and I wont pull of my selections and in some cases be able to increase my wagers with higher odds.

I hate to see anyone bleeding at the track. So I'll take a coarser approach. You need to throw this method and betting strategy in the street and run over it. Because you are more of a spot player and bet a limited number of races, I would recommend going with higher odds. But to do this your game must be much different than the average geezer boxing speed numbers. I wouldn't play any money until you can pick a spot which will finish in the money at least 65% of the time at over +5-1.

[Light]

I will keep it going but cut back the 30 races to 20 and try to learn when to pass a race.


You will find some of your best bets are the ones you DON'T make. Your ROI will improve considerably.

Never knock yourself for losing. Your mental attitude has more of an affect on the outcome as any handicapping skills.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I am a firm believer in raising my bet if the odds are higher than I expected.

Me too, but easier said than done. The tote is a cruel and misleading mistress, sometimes reaffirming your handicapping with low odds, and sometimes dangling the tempting long odds horse that usually runs up the track.

How many of us have bet $5 to win on the 25-1 shot, watch it win in a romp, then groan, "Argh, I should have bet more...."? How many of us, the very next race, have all the go signals on a 3-1 shot, bet $100 to win, and watch the horse fade to the back on the turn?

Factoring in the confidence level of one's selection is a challenge, along with the money/bankroll management, bet sizing, overlay percentages and the rest. For the recreational player, an honest analysis of wagers is a great place to start - a step most skip, as their bankroll is simply "disposable income" anyway. Knowing whether you're a grinder, with small profits or losses cashing many races is a far different game then being the plunger, relying on a few big scores per year to keep one afloat.

Then, when improvements are made, the next challenge is trying to crossover the line of "money losing hobby" to "break even hobby" to "profitable hobby". For most of us, we're living examples of Beyer's "Good Life" kid.

[punteray]

Where in the library can I find the references

mach3ray

[Ted Craven]

Where in the library can I find the references

mach3ray

In The Follow Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=57) section. Just complete your registration for access.

Ted