What is the best advice you have been given?

[Tom]

What most helped you in this game?
What sage advice did someone give you that set your course for you?

Me, two people.

Doc Sartin - "If you don't have all the information you want, use what information you have."

Mike Pizzola - "Some do, some don't. Next!" Meaning there is another race in 10 minutes. Don't sweat a loss.

[thaskalos]

The importance of keeping your composure when fate turns against you.

I have a friend who was a high-level online poker player before the government's shutdown of the game. This guy deposited $1,000 with Poker Stars, and started by playing in the $25/no-limit games...and in two years time, he had accumulated a mid six-figure bankroll...and sat in some of the biggest no-limit games that online poker had to offer. A poker-playing GENIUS!

Some years ago... during one of my prolonged losing streaks, both at the track and in poker, I reached out to this man for some advice on what I might be doing wrong in my own game...and he let me watch over his shoulder as he was plying his trade at the online poker tables.

For three consecutive days I watched this guy play 4 tables of high stakes poker simultaneously...and saw him encounter the worst run of bad luck that I've ever seen. Time after time he would put all his money in with tons the best of it...and time after time he would watch as his opponent drew-out on him -- costing him buy-in after buy-in. During the three-day span...my friend lost the astounding (to me) amount of $57,000.

But I never saw him lose confidence in himself...nor did his game disintegrate in any way. He didn't press to try and get even quickly...nor did he take a "break" from the game -- so he could "get his head together". He continued playing with the same cool-headed, well-calculated style...and he managed to record a healthy profit by the end of the month.

"How do you handle these horrible twists of fate?"...I asked him.

"The good captain proves himself in turbulent waters"...he replied, with a smile.

A hundred handicapping books couldn't teach me as much...

[bgbootha]

"It doesn't matter if you lost by a nose or 10 lengths, let it go and move on."

[Robert Goren]

"Don't try to make a living at this. You're smart, kid, but not that smart" Roy Landis in 1968. He was right.

[Robert Goren]

As for handicapping advice. An old trainer whose name I don't remember if I knew it told. "If they tried something last time( like going to lead) and it didn't work, it isn't going to work today unless something changes." He also said "A cheap horse who starts its season after the circuit biggest meet (in this case Aksarben)is sore and shouldn't be bet after its second race back."
Another old trainer once said" Some jockeys and quite a few trainers can't win a race even if they cheat."
Roy Landis who I mentioned in the other post said that there are horses who love certain kinds tracks and there others who hate them. He was referring not only to the various kinds of muddy tracks, but also certain kinds of fast tracks like cuppy ones as well.

[Greyfox]

"If what you are doing isn't working, do something different."

Greyfox

[lamboguy]

right from my mother's mouth--THOSE THAT TELL DON'T KNOW, AND THOSE THAT KNOW DON'T TELL

her words apply to more than horse racing

[Hoofless_Wonder]

The first book I bought on handicapping was "Betting Thoroughbreds" by Davidowitz in 1984. He explained in great detail how trainer's intent, form cycle, trips and other factors determine a horse's performance, and how the change in factors from race to race contribute to such volatility.

Having been weaned on the much more consistent races on the harness circuit, this was a major eye-opener for me.

In a nutshell, "Horses are not machines..."

[SuitedAces]

"The good captain proves himself in turbulent waters."

I like that. That says a lot to me. I say watch this thread. The info that will rise to the top here in this thread will move the future "moneymakers here" to the expected new heights we so richly deserve. We've got to be in the right place. So please...How do we steer the ship?

[limit2]

Best advice comes from D. Mitchell's books as: "Plan your work; work your plan".

[traynor]

Lee Rousso:
"If you are not picking winners, there is no reason to keep betting as if you are."

[HUSKER55]

I was told that if the mathmatics is sound and your idea is not in left field then the sytem should work. But consistent betting is just as important as consistent handicapping.

In other words, if you make a system and bet against it then exactly what is it that you want?

[1ejp]

Place every bet like it's your last, and one day you'll be right! ;)

[DJofSD]

Doc Sartin - "If you don't have all the information you want, use what information you have."



I'll vigorously second that sage advice from Doc. I can even remember being in a seminar the first time I heard it.

Not so much in favor of banana man.

[DJofSD]

"If what you are doing isn't working, do something different."

Greyfox
That's what I tell my son when his golf swing goes south.

[Overlay]

On handicapping:

"Even though there is no such thing as a 'sure thing', there definitely are 'sure types'. . . .Although, overall, horses win in accordance with their odds, certain types are overlays, and others underlays. . . .Is the horse worth its price? Are the odds commensurate with the horse's chance of winning?" (William Quirin)


On money management:

"Never make a wager unless the expectation is positive." (Dick Mitchell)

[raybo]

I think Pittsburgh Phil said something like "A good horse, at a good price, is a good bet". My mentor told me from the beginning "If the risk is higher than the potential reward, don't invest".

[classhandicapper]

"Look through your records over the last couple of years and see how you would have done if you never bet any horses under 3-1".

[magwell]

Never bring you wife or girlfriend or even your mother to the track........;)

[BettinBilly]

1986-ish, at the track with my girlfriend.

I was upset about losing every damn race so far and was bitching about it while we were in line to place another bet. An old guy standing behind me in line said to me (and this is pretty damn close);

"Son, you are at a horse track betting on horses. There are only four rules in life when it comes to betting on horses. 1.) YOU place the bet 2.) HORSES do the running 3.) YOU win some you loose some 4.) THAT'S why they call it GAMBLING"

[JohnGalt1]

"If what you are doing isn't working, do something different."

Greyfox

I'd like to add to or modify this statement.

When I am winning and decide to add additional factors to my method or tweak it and I turn winning days into smaller winning or non-winning days, this is how I would modify your statement---

[B]If what you are doing isn't working now but used to work, go back to what you were doing.

I do agree with your original statement that if What you are doing has NEVER worked, do something different.

[appistappis]

All horse players die broke.

[therussmeister]

"Determine which handicapping factors the crowd understands poorly, or not at all, and make that the foundation of your handicapping methodology."

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Never again make a bad percentage play!

[Stillriledup]

All horse players die broke.

Geez, if that was the best advice you got, i'd hate to hear the worst! :D

[Maximillion]

Cant really put my finger on the best advice I ever recieved.

The worst....and this is strictly speaking for myself,was to solely focus on one track/circuit.

I completely understand and respect those that follow this path....but I know it would never work for me.

[Fingal]

right from my mother's mouth--THOSE THAT TELL DON'T KNOW, AND THOSE THAT KNOW DON'T TELL

her words apply to more than horse racing

Gordon Gecko in Wall Street

" The most valuable commodity I know of is information"

It's how one handles & takes from the information he or she sees that determines success, because everyone views the same words be it book, video or seminar. But not everyone knows how to look into those thoughts & then expand them with their own concepts.

When everyone knows everything, it's useless.

That's how 6/5 shots are born.

[LottaKash]

When everyone knows everything, it's useless.

.

" Stay thirsty my friend "....:cool:

[PhantomOnTour]

Son - if you meet a woman who all the men like but very few women do.
Well, she ain't nothin' but trouble.

[thaskalos]

"Never play cards with a man called Doc.

Never eat at a place called Mom's.

And never lie down with a woman who has more problems than you have..."

[Light]

right from my mother's mouth--THOSE THAT TELL DON'T KNOW, AND THOSE THAT KNOW DON'T TELL

her words apply to more than horse racing

Hey lamboguy. Your mother got that from the Tao Te Ching written many centuries ago.

Lao Tzu said in chapter 56

Those who know do not talk.
Those who talk do not know.

[PIC6SIX]

No one took me under their wing, I had to learn the hard way by losing and still do. However, one can learn from their mistakes. Forty years of experience at this game has taught me that BETTING over shadows handicapping. Example, its decided your handicapping insight for a certain race offers you an edge. Now the difficult part starts. You must now decide; which pool to wager into, (w,pl,sh,DD,ex,tri,p3,p4, other exotics) amount to wager, do I use saver bets, is potential payoff adequate or only minimal, yadayadayada. You get the message.

[turninforhome10]

My uncle always told that you will not appreciate being married to big woman until you sleep on the south side of her when there is a cold north wind. :D :D :D

The oldest and best advice I received and it is still a goodie, " Eat with your bettin money, but don't bet with your eatin money".

[tanner12oz]

Make bets that will actually bring a reward...the name of the game is winning cash and not simply cashing tickets...this is gambling and 99% of the time ya gotta make a gamble somewhere...do not play 3 x3x3 pick 3's...take the single and punch it multiple time...when you are confident I want you to press press and press some more...when your not avoid it like the plague...key for me has always been sequence...gimme a horse I like sandwiched between some chaos races and you'll have me playing all day long

[burnsy]

"Son, you are at a horse track betting on horses. There are only four rules in life when it comes to betting on horses. 1.) YOU place the bet 2.) HORSES do the running 3.) YOU win some you loose some 4.) THAT'S why they call it GAMBLING"

This is something I've said on here many times and it is so true. Anyone that says a horse is a "sure thing", the greatest or can't lose...is not a gambler. A good gambler already understands he will lose many times and can handle it. I'm repeating what others have already said in a way. Information is best when no one else has it or agrees with it..you are in a pool vs. everyone else. When people tout the chalky, chalk or the next super star or the clearly obvious horses and info..chances are its worthless. As for people that don't know, don't talk....it's not entirely true either....most people don't listen anyway. Most people are not cut out to be gamblers they follow the "crowd" or the "popular rhetoric" being reported as gospel. The best advice I got was many moons ago.....in the 6th grade I had a brilliant teacher that taught me to NEVER take things at face value, by what's being "reported" or by what others are saying...ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND LEARN HOW TO FORM YOUR OWN OPINION. That's a key and I do know what I'm doing, I'm telling it and it goes over most peoples heads. Good gamblers will tell you all of this....but I've found that so many people won't listen or just don't get it and never will. If you can't think rationally, objectively and independently, plus take the "body blows of losing", you'll just be another person that never wins at any form of gambling. I gave out so many football winners by thinking for myself....watch how many people quote the jug heads on ESPN..they ARE NOT gamblers.

[lamboguy]

Hey lamboguy. Your mother got that from the Tao Te Ching written many centuries ago.

Lao Tzu said in chapter 56

Those who know do not talk.
Those who talk do not know.
i love it, that's pretty kewl

[TheEdge07]

When trying to get even

You get even worst!

[MutuelClerk]

You can beat one race but you'll never beat the races.

[rubicon55]

This is something I've said on here many times and it is so true. Anyone that says a horse is a "sure thing", the greatest or can't lose...is not a gambler. A good gambler already understands he will lose many times and can handle it. I'm repeating what others have already said in a way. Information is best when no one else has it or agrees with it..you are in a pool vs. everyone else. When people tout the chalky, chalk or the next super star or the clearly obvious horses and info..chances are its worthless. As for people that don't know, don't talk....it's not entirely true either....most people don't listen anyway. Most people are not cut out to be gamblers they follow the "crowd" or the "popular rhetoric" being reported as gospel. The best advice I got was many moons ago.....in the 6th grade I had a brilliant teacher that taught me to NEVER take things at face value, by what's being "reported" or by what others are saying...ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND LEARN HOW TO FORM YOUR OWN OPINION. That's a key and I do know what I'm doing, I'm telling it and it goes over most peoples heads. Good gamblers will tell you all of this....but I've found that so many people won't listen or just don't get it and never will. If you can't think rationally, objectively and independently, plus take the "body blows of losing", you'll just be another person that never wins at any form of gambling. I gave out so many football winners by thinking for myself....watch how many people quote the jug heads on ESPN..they ARE NOT gamblers.

Never truer words spoken above.

[HUSKER55]

"Never play cards with a man called Doc.

Never eat at a place called Mom's.

And never lie down with a woman who has more problems than you have..."


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :D

[GaryG]

Don't get too proud when you win and don't let a few losses discourage you. Maintain your equilibrium and win with the same face that you lose with. This from my first mentor Ernie Mason.

[DJofSD]

I guess we're not sticking with racing and handicapping advice.

Here's a good one: just because you can do something does not mean you should.

The best: never let the little head do the thinking for the big one.

[speed]

"Take two weeks off..........then quit." Lee Trevino

Golfer in pro-am with Trevino is on the green and asks Lee for advice on the putt. Trevino walks around the green, stands behind the ball and plum bobs the putt. Waits a few seconds, looks at the guy and says keep it low. :lol:

[Dan Montilion]

Go To The Clubhouse.

[pondman]

Before the internet and multiple exotics, I had a Pro at SA tell me, "I made $300k last year and you'll see me at the window less than 10 times a week."

He lectured me on the value of staying away from gambling completely, until you had something that would pay for a car or a down payment on a house. And then you load up on the bet. One time I was at the track with him playing a 40-1 shot. He was on the nose for a grand. I had $100 to WPS. The horse came in 2nd by a nose. He said to me," If the horse had won, you would have lost 8k. Stay on the win" It took me at least a decade to understand what he was talking about.

[Ocala Mike]

"When you come to a fork in the road...take it!" - Yogi Berra

[speed]

"When you come to a fork in the road...take it!" - Yogi Berra
Always thought that meant a restaurant was soon to appear. :)

[Grits]

"This, too, shall pass."

"The sun don't shine on the same dog's @$$ every afternoon."

"In divorce, there are three things to leave off the table--hate, greed, and stupidity. Without them, you remain friends, always. With them, you're nothing but a bad memory. Someone else's hell." --my advice

[raybo]

I've lost count of all the posts here but here's one that many I'm sure have heard or seen: If you keep doing what you've been doing, you'll keep getting what you've been getting.

How may of those who have heard or seen that, are still doing what they have been doing, and still losing? :bang:

[Dahoss2002]

Don't bet on "tips"

[deathandgravity]

"Turn the page".. back in the good ole days when we used a print copy of the DRF.

[reckless]

"Never play cards with a man called Doc.

Never eat at a place called Mom's.

And never lie down with a woman who has more problems than you have..."

Words written by the great writer who was primarily known as a son of Chicago, Nelson Algren.

[fmolf]

a horseplayer professional told me this when i was 17 at belmont in 1974..."I can make money because 98% of these people bet too many races".....

[mkkash]

All horse players die broke.
That is not a true statement.

It is better to say some horseplayers die broke and a few die RICH!!!

I remember back in the early days one fellow handicapper was giving up
and selling all of his library and gadgets.

I got there late and purchased a few items.

Best advise is bet 2 horses to WIN
If you have both in a photo you are a winner .

MKK

[riskman]

Gordon Pine was the forum moderator on Dick Mithchill's web site, Cynthia Publishing. For years Pine produced par times. I am sure many on here remember him for those pars.
I used to participate on the forum. Gordon was a wealth of information. He now runs Netcapper his own site and has a software program of the same name.
I do not know what he is doing these days. You can go here and see some of the articles he wrote. There is not one particular thing he said or wrote that influenced me.It is the total of his knowledge that influenced me.

http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TrackTractsArchive.htm

[Tom]

Go To The Clubhouse.

Gotta be right up there as one of the best! :D

[upthecreek]

Stay away from fast women and slow horses-neither of which I have listen too!

[MutuelClerk]

Time don't mean anything unless you're serving it.

[JohnGalt1]

When a lamb is led into the stockyards---ALWAYS BET ON THE BUTCHER.

[Fingal]

If there would be one book / pamphlet that gives numerous lines of good advice, it would be the " Racing Maxims & Methods of Pittsburgh Phil ", specifically the maxims part. It's several pages of sound advice.

[Dark Horse]

A former thoroughbred trainer took me under his wing. I then worked my ass off to translate his expert knowledge into my own field of expertise. That provided a considerable edge, but it still wouldn't have been enough without learning to program in excel. So... the blessing of a mentor, hard work, and the gift of excel.

[raybo]

A former thoroughbred trainer took me under his wing. I then worked my ass off to translate his expert knowledge into my own field of expertise. That provided a considerable edge, but it still wouldn't have been enough without learning to program in excel. So... the blessing of a mentor, hard work, and the gift of excel.

Ditto that, for me, but change "former thoroughbred trainer" to "very intelligent, disciplined gambler".

[Robert Fischer]

"These people don't know how to read the Racing Form! You have to read between the lines..." - my father

[BettinBilly]

This is something I've said on here many times and it is so true. Anyone that says a horse is a "sure thing", the greatest or can't lose...is not a gambler. A good gambler already understands he will lose many times and can handle it. I'm repeating what others have already said in a way. Information is best when no one else has it or agrees with it..you are in a pool vs. everyone else. When people tout the chalky, chalk or the next super star or the clearly obvious horses and info..chances are its worthless. As for people that don't know, don't talk....it's not entirely true either....most people don't listen anyway. Most people are not cut out to be gamblers they follow the "crowd" or the "popular rhetoric" being reported as gospel. The best advice I got was many moons ago.....in the 6th grade I had a brilliant teacher that taught me to NEVER take things at face value, by what's being "reported" or by what others are saying...ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND LEARN HOW TO FORM YOUR OWN OPINION. That's a key and I do know what I'm doing, I'm telling it and it goes over most peoples heads. Good gamblers will tell you all of this....but I've found that so many people won't listen or just don't get it and never will. If you can't think rationally, objectively and independently, plus take the "body blows of losing", you'll just be another person that never wins at any form of gambling. I gave out so many football winners by thinking for myself....watch how many people quote the jug heads on ESPN..they ARE NOT gamblers.

Thank you Burnsy. I absolutely agree. I'm glad I had a random encounter with an elder Horseplayer back in 86 telling me the four cardinal rules of betting on horses and most importantly the final rule: "That's why they call it gambling". It's helped me ride through series of losses on my way series of winners. ;)

[Bullet Plane]

Play what you know!

[mountainman]

Read a horse's form from the bottom up, and draw yourself a detailed portrait.

[raybo]

Read a horse's form from the bottom up, and draw yourself a detailed portrait.

Excellent advice, and exactly what I do!

It allows you to see individual form cycle progressions as well as trainer patterns versus days off, works, distance changes, class changes, surface changes, etc.. This allows me to assign each horse an "earnings" or "conditioning" label, telling me if the horse is in the race to win/make money, or, if it is being prepared for the future and not expected to compete today.

[Dark Horse]

Identify the positive playing fields first, by scanning the card for favorites that can be tossed out. Then go to the detail of the races that qualify. Not the other way around. The public looks for reasons to bet ON horses (or teams). Pros look to fade first, because whatever can be faded helps flip a negative playing field into a positive one. The alternative is to try to squeeze value out of negative playing fields; a losing proposition by definition.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Identify the positive playing fields first, by scanning the card for favorites that can be tossed out. Then go to the detail of the races that qualify. Not the other way around. The public looks for reasons to bet ON horses (or teams). Pros look to fade first, because whatever can be faded helps flip a negative playing field into a positive one. The alternative is to try to squeeze value out of negative playing fields; a losing proposition by definition.

This gets my vote for best post of the quarter, FWIW. :ThmbUp: A negative playing field is around half the races today.

This also helps explain why sports betting is tiddlywinks compared to racing.

[Bullet Plane]

Four more that come to mind:

1) Don't talk anybody off a longshot.

2) Don't listen to ANYBODY!

3) Make three prime bets for the day. If the first one hits, fold it up and go home.

4) You gotta know when to pull the trigger.

The last is probably the most important one...

[shots]

:ThmbUp: "These people don't know how to read the Racing Form! You have to read between the lines..." - my father

[Greyfox]

2) Don't listen to ANYBODY!


:ThmbUp: "Ears" can be your worst enemy at a race track - for both 'pickin' and 'bettin.'

[Ocala Mike]

One more:

"Neither a borrower nor a lender be" - Polonius in Hamlet

[Fingal]

" Sometimes your best number is your 2nd one "

[Robert Goren]

Nobody told me this. I had to figure it out myself. But I give it out anyway because it is so true. Never ever tell anybody about a horse you think is a cinch. Nothing good can happen form sharing. And never tell any non gamblers how much you won or lost. They will want you to buy dinner either way.

[Curlin]

Listen to facts........ Not opinions.

[goatchaser]

I had an uncle that before the first race of the day said the same thing...

I hope I break even today.....I need the money.

[BlueShoe]

Best advice comes from D. Mitchell's books as: "Plan your work; work your plan".
Slight variation on this;
"Plan your play then play your plan."
Louis G. Holloway

[RaceBookJoe]

Slight variation on this;
"Plan your play then play your plan."
Louis G. Holloway

Loved LGH !!!

2 from my dad
1. You cant always beat a race, but you can beat the races

2 : Easiest way to leave the track with $5K...walk in with $10K :)

[BlueShoe]

And never lie down with a woman who has more problems than you have..."
Now you tell me! :eek: :( :bang: :blush:

[Maximillion]

Four more that come to mind:

1) Don't talk anybody off a longshot.

2) Don't listen to ANYBODY!

3) Make three prime bets for the day. If the first one hits, fold it up and go home.

4) You gotta know when to pull the trigger.

The last is probably the most important one...

Nothing personal BP,but if you have any confidence at all in what your doing point #3 would be IMHO very bad advice.

[MutuelClerk]

IN a situation where you didn't bet a horse you liked and he won. The horse's next start. If you didn't make the wedding. Why attend the funeral?

[thaskalos]

IN a situation where you didn't bet a horse you liked and he won. The horse's next start. If you didn't make the wedding. Why attend the funeral?
Yeah...but a funeral is advertised as a funeral ahead of time.

A horse's last race victory does not preclude it from winning right back.

[Bullet Plane]

Yeah...but a funeral is advertised as a funeral ahead of time.

A horse's last race victory does not preclude it from winning right back.


No, but the point is....

there probably will be no price the second time around. Winners seldom go off at long odds. That is the domain of the clunkers who finish way back...way.. way.. back.

[thaskalos]

No, but the point is....

there probably will be no price the second time around. Winners seldom go off at long odds. That is the domain of the clunkers who finish way back...way.. way.. back.
I still don't get it.

If the horse had price in his first win...and we liked the horse...then why should we have "missed the wedding"?

Or are we like those guys who only like the horse when they see cross the finish line first?

The player who chickens-out of betting on his choice when it has price doesn't deserve to win...now, or ever.

[AFilly4theAges]

"These people don't know how to read the Racing Form! You have to read between the lines..." - my father

Your Father was a wise Man! Excellent advice.
The best advice I ever received from a mentor was,"Every race is NOT playable"!

[dannyhill]

Since 99% of players lose if you wager on the same or the obvious horses as the public selects on a regular basis, you can expect similar results.

[reckless]

Time don't mean anything unless you're serving it.

If time doesn't matter then why do they time the races?

[Bullet Plane]

If time doesn't matter then why do they time the races?


Well, if you think the time of the race is the be all end all, then there is no way no how that you use speed figures!

Read Pittsburg Phil ....

Read Handicapping 101, by Brad Free,

Another good one is Beyer on Speed...

[Bullet Plane]

I still don't get it.

If the horse had price in his first win...and we liked the horse...then why should we have "missed the wedding"?

Or are we like those guys who only like the horse when they see cross the finish line first?

The player who chickens-out of betting on his choice when it has price doesn't deserve to win...now, or ever.
OK. Let me simplify this then.

Say you are looking at some PP's...you notice a horse won and paid $30.00 Jan 15, 2014.

Why didn't you play the horse?

I don't have the capability to do space/time travel... and play that animal.

[Bullet Plane]

Nothing personal BP,but if you have any confidence at all in what your doing point #3 would be IMHO very bad advice.


OK, don't listen to the advice. I wish you many a merry trip to the windows!

[thaskalos]

OK. Let me simplify this then.

Say you are looking at some PP's...you notice a horse won and paid $30.00 Jan 15, 2014.

Why didn't you play the horse?

I don't have the capability to do space/time travel... and play that animal.
Aaah...I get it now.

So, if we notice that a horse won and paid $30 in January...we should avoid betting it at 5-1 today. Hence the "wedding and funeral" reference. Yes...that is very profound.

I don't necessarily agree with it...but I see where others might.

[thaskalos]

Well, if you think the time of the race is the be all end all, then there is no way no how that you use speed figures!

Read Pittsburg Phil ....

Read Handicapping 101, by Brad Free,

Another good one is Beyer on Speed...
There is a world of difference between saying that "the timing of the race doesn't matter"...and saying that the timing of the race isn't the "be all, end all".

The poster "mutuelclerk" suggested that the timing of the race doesn't matter...which, of course, is advice that cannot be taken seriously.

Which reminds me of a piece of advice that my OWN father passed on to ME. He told me:

"Son, never take advice from a mutuel teller. If they knew what they were talking about...then they'd be on the other side of the window".

[Bullet Plane]

There is a world of difference between saying that "the timing of the race doesn't matter"...and saying that the timing of the race isn't the "be all, end all".

The poster "mutuelclerk" suggested that the timing of the race doesn't matter...which, of course, is advice that cannot be taken seriously.

Which reminds me of a piece of advice that my OWN father passed on to ME. He told me:

"Son, never take advice from a mutuel teller. If they knew what they were talking about...then they'd be on the other side of the window".

Sorry, Mutual Clerk didn't originate "Time only counts in jail."

This is common knowledge to anybody that has been around the game.

Hence, speed figures.

Thank you for your interest in this thread , and have a good day.

[thaskalos]

Sorry, Mutual Clerk didn't originate "Time only counts in jail."

This is common knowledge to anybody that has been around the game.

Hence, speed figures.

Thank you for your interest in this thread , and have a good day.
You're welcome...and I wish a good day to you as well.

[Rookies]

"The Star Spangled Banner is going off EVERY day."

[Track Phantom]

"Determine which handicapping factors the crowd understands poorly, or not at all, and make that the foundation of your handicapping methodology."

This one is spot on.

In my opinion, the public overvalues breeding and speed figures and undervalues trainer patterns and race replays.

[HuggingTheRail]

Winner for me - Its okay to bet more than 1 horse to win in a race...

Honourable Mention - do not measure financial success by a single race day

[Tall One]

No one took me under their wing, I had to learn the hard way by losing and still do. However, one can learn from their mistakes. Forty years of experience at this game has taught me that BETTING over shadows handicapping. Example, its decided your handicapping insight for a certain race offers you an edge. Now the difficult part starts. You must now decide; which pool to wager into, (w,pl,sh,DD,ex,tri,p3,p4, other exotics) amount to wager, do I use saver bets, is potential payoff adequate or only minimal, yadayadayada. You get the message.


Spot. On.


Over 22 years since my first bet (taught myself to read the form) my 'capping might be spot on, but losing because I didn't do this or that at the mutual window makes me..:bang:

[MutuelClerk]

It's pari-mutuel ( among us). Were not selling insurance.

Mutuel.

Mutuel.

Mutuel.

Sorry, pet peeve.

Please continue.

[Tall One]

It's pari-mutuel ( among us). Were not selling insurance.





:blush: My spelling gets better after a couple cups of coffee on a Monday morning.

:D

[MutuelClerk]

All good. Thanks for reacting with class. Appreciated.

[barn32]

Ignore jockeys, trainers, post position, breeding and workouts.

[raybo]

Ignore jockeys, trainers, post position, breeding and workouts.

How about "don't ignore" anything, but be very careful in what you believe and bet on.

[Greyfox]

Ignore jockeys, trainers, post position, breeding and workouts.

Yeah, sure.

Ignore all that at your own peril.

I'm guessing that you posted that with tongue-in-cheek.

[barn32]

Ignore jockeys, trainers, post position, breeding and workouts.
Yeah, sure.

Ignore all that at your own peril.

I'm guessing that you posted that with tongue-in-cheek.No, actually, I'm quite serious.

[Stillriledup]

Ignore jockeys, trainers, post position, breeding and workouts.
When you say ignore jocks and trainers, are you suggesting to not use them as a factor in the handicapping process or ignore what they say verbally?

[barn32]

When you say ignore jocks and trainers, are you suggesting to not use them as a factor in the handicapping process...Correct

[Tall One]

How about "don't ignore" anything, but be very careful in what you believe and bet on.


I don't think you can have too much information, but I try not to over analyze the race. That leads to doubting yourself, and next thing you know you've talked yourself off that 8-1 shot that wins for fun.

[pondman]

IN a situation where you didn't bet a horse you liked and he won. The horse's next start. If you didn't make the wedding. Why attend the funeral?

These should be independent decisions. There is money to be made on repeat wins

[Sapio]

These should be independent decisions. There is money to be made on repeat wins

Hi pondman,

I agree. Especially in the races that have multiple last race winners.

Thomas Sapio

[Greyfox]

No, actually, I'm quite serious.

Thank you. I thought you had to be kidding a bit when you said:


Ignore jockeys, trainers, post position, breeding and workouts.

All the best, but that is the absolutely last advice I would give for picking
WINNERS.

[1st time lasix]

best advice that I actually took..... "bet small in the exotics...to win big." What I have learned.....Concentrate on low-take out pick fours and pick fives. Only play carryover pick sixes when you have a strong insight into the winners of at least two legs.

[whodoyoulike]

Time don't mean anything unless you're serving it.

Ignore jockeys, trainers, post position, breeding and workouts.

Well, if you think the time of the race is the be all end all, then there is no way no how that you use speed figures!

Read Pittsburg Phil ....

Read Handicapping 101, by Brad Free,

Another good one is Beyer on Speed...


Good ones, BTW which track(s) do you play?

Thanks,

[whodoyoulike]

... Only play carryover pick sixes when you have a strong insight into the winners of at least two legs.

I recall attending a seminar about 20 years ago and one of the presenters said to only play a pick 6 when it has a carryover and play it if you can single at least 4 (it may have been 3). Like a dummmy, I didn't take good notes. But, by following his advice it has saved me a lot of money. Also, he said you should try to play a pick 6 the last day of the meet (no carryover).

I just remember the presenter had long curly black hair and how confident he was.

[dannyhill]

I recall attending a seminar about 20 years ago and one of the presenters said to only play a pick 6 when it has a carryover and play it if you can single at least 4 (it may have been 3). Like a dummmy, I didn't take good notes. But, by following his advice it has saved me a lot of money. Also, he said you should try to play a pick 6 the last day of the meet (no carryover).

I just remember the presenter had long curly black hair and how confident he was.
Trying to single 3 or 4 in a pick 6 sequence is a very difficult way to hit a pick 6. Try pooling money with a group or if not possible skip playing the small $16 or $32 ticket or such, and save the money up and try a ticket when you can afford to play a larger one. IMO this gives you a much better shot at it.
Best of Luck

[whodoyoulike]

Trying to single 3 or 4 in a pick 6 sequence is a very difficult way to hit a pick 6. Try pooling money with a group or if not possible skip playing the small $16 or $32 ticket or such, and save the money up and try a ticket when you can afford to play a larger one. IMO this gives you a much better shot at it.
Best of Luck

I haven't played a pick 6 for about 19 or 20 years.

[Bullet Plane]

I play mostly the major Tracks. New York, California, Florida, Kentucky...

and follow the triple crown trail at various tracks...

I rarely play many of the very small tracks..

[whodoyoulike]

I play mostly the major Tracks. New York, California, Florida, Kentucky...

and follow the triple crown trail at various tracks...

I rarely play many of the very small tracks..


Good to know. I feel comfortable playing most "A" and "B" tracks. I actually played Mnr once (last year) but usually stay away from "C" or "D" tracks. So, we are probably playing into the same betting pools.

[biggestal99]

No horse wins every race--cramer

[JohnGalt1]

I can't remember the book, but the author wrote "If a horse isn't worth betting your maximum amount, don't bet less on a horse that almost qualifies."

He pointed out that horse that almost qualifies for a bet costs you money. So if a race has a horse that almost qualifies---pass the race.

How many times do you have a horse that is one tick or point or however you rate horses better than its competition that you bet on with one half or less, and how many times does it lose compared the horses that are fully qualify with your method?

I know I did, (and maybe still do from time to time.)

I'm mostly a win better, so I either bet my full amount to win, or divide my full bet if I play two horses, or skip the race.

[whodoyoulike]

I recall being in the Paddock area and Bertrando looked straight at me and winked.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I can't remember the book, but the author wrote "If a horse isn't worth betting your maximum amount, don't bet less on a horse that almost qualifies."

He pointed out that horse that almost qualifies for a bet costs you money. So if a race has a horse that almost qualifies---pass the race.

How many times do you have a horse that is one tick or point or however you rate horses better than its competition that you bet on with one half or less, and how many times does it lose compared the horses that are fully qualify with your method?

I know I did, (and maybe still do from time to time.)

I'm mostly a win better, so I either bet my full amount to win, or divide my full bet if I play two horses, or skip the race.

Very sound advice. I remember reading a quote from a successful British gambler who said that "Before you make any bet ask yourself seriously if you would be willing to stake ten times more on the outcome of the event. If the honest answer is no then don't bet. you aren't really confident that you've picked the winner". Open for argument. LOL

[thaskalos]

Very sound advice. I remember reading a quote from a successful British gambler who said that "Before you make any bet ask yourself seriously if you would be willing to stake ten times more on the outcome of the event. If the honest answer is no then don't bet. you aren't really confident that you've picked the winner". Open for argument. LOL
I disagree with the "successful British gambler". This is "over-confidence"...and there is no room for that in this game, IMO.

I know from my own experience that most of my "standout" bets have lost...while some of my "iffiest" bets have rewarded me spectacularly.

We never know when our winners will show up...so we should bet accordingly.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I agree with you thask in the fact that we can never know if any individual bet will be a winner or loser. However, the advice might make us take a few minutes and analyze the betting transaction we are considering and see if there are any negatives attached to the wager.

[thaskalos]

I agree with you thask in the fact that we can never know if any individual bet will be a winner or loser. However, the advice might make us take a few minutes and analyze the betting transaction we are considering and see if there are any negatives attached to the wager.
If it's a potentially high-paying wager...then there will always be questions and doubts associated with it. We weigh the risk against the reward...and THAT'S when we decide whether to pull the trigger or not.

Waiting for the "sure things", like the British gambler suggests, is a sucker's game...IMO. I can't envision even one situation where I would be tempted to wager ten-times my usual bet.

There are no sure things...and you can't take the "gamble" out of gambling.

[barn32]

I can remember on many occasions walking away from the window after having made a bet and thinking to myself, "I should cancel this bet."

It turns out I should have canceled every single time. (But I never did.)

But I got even with myself.

Several years later after I had quit playing the horses I was betting sports pretty good. One day, at Binions, I had bet $500 on a basketball game. When I walked away from the window, I was feeling all nervous, and the first thought that struck me was that I should cancel this bet.

I can remember thinking back to all of those horse racing bets that I should have canceled but for some reason I didn't have the nerve to do it.

I went back to the window and bet double the other way--and won...easy.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Like they say play your game every day not making any one bet any more important then the next because we simply have no idea who will win or lose. Interesting point you brought out that your less confident wagers were the source of some nice profit while your more confident wagers bit the dust.

[dastar]

A trainer from Louisianna told me in the 1980's. Look for Jockeys mistakes for that tells you what really happened and what could have happened.

Some 'mistakes' are intentional & can lead to a large score when the horse looks terrible in form.

[luisbe]

All those who write books and create a new method or sell figures or info do not make their living by gambling but using our gambling habits to do so.
You better start writing a book

[clocker7]

From various racing friends, paraphrased.

"Self-examine why you are really at the track, instead of someplace else where it's easier to make more or steadier money working lesser hours. It's the rush, right?"

"Thank you for building the carryover."

"Can somebody please tell us risk/reward practitioners how to calculate the denominator for the exotic pools beyond the exacta level? I'm stumped."

[Overlay]

"Can somebody please tell us risk/reward practitioners how to calculate the denominator for the exotic pools beyond the exacta level? I'm stumped."
Have you found a reasonably accurate way to do that for the horizontal or vertical exotics that run three-deep or more, where advance probable payoffs are not available (at least to my knowledge)?

(And welcome to the board, by the way.)

[ultracapper]

Bigger the odds, bigger the bet. When I very first started, I was instructed to not bet on anything under 3-1. Whatever the odds are on your horse, round that number up to the next even number, and bet half to win and half to place. 3-1, round to 4, $2 & $2. if it's 15-1 round to 16, $8 & $8.

When you like a 15-1, there's usually a very good reason. When you land on a 3-1, it's just all the same reasons everybody else did.

Take all the information you have for what it is. The winners will reveal themselves. You don't have to extrapolate, assume, make something more of something than what it is, hope or pray. Winners will pop out at you more often than you think if you just accept the info and data for what it is.

I love the guy who said earlier in this thread that if you don't bet your price horses, you don't deserve to win at this game...now or ever. That's as good advise as I've ever heard in my 30+ years of playing this. Much the same as my first point in this post.

[clocker7]

Thanks for the welcome, Overlay. I actually have had an account for awhile, but, like for betting action, I'm tend to lurk more than I play. ;)

Of course it is difficult to estimate a payout for any complex exotic. My friend's point was that exotics are a departure from more anal types of wagering, and I took it to heart. (Not that I don't stray, but that I keep it in context.)

[whodoyoulike]

Bigger the odds, bigger the bet. When I very first started, I was instructed to not bet on anything under 3-1. Whatever the odds are on your horse, round that number up to the next even number, and bet half to win and half to place. 3-1, round to 4, $2 & $2. if it's 15-1 round to 16, $8 & $8.

When you like a 15-1, there's usually a very good reason. When you land on a 3-1, it's just all the same reasons everybody else did.

Take all the information you have for what it is. The winners will reveal themselves. You don't have to extrapolate, assume, make something more of something than what it is, hope or pray. Winners will pop out at you more often than you think if you just accept the info and data for what it is.

I love the guy who said earlier in this thread that if you don't bet your price horses, you don't deserve to win at this game...now or ever. That's as good advise as I've ever heard in my 30+ years of playing this. Much the same as my first point in this post.

How's this advice working for you? I'm not trying to be sarcastic. I try to bet the best horse that I think fits the race and is also within my acceptable odds (which a lot of times is less than 3-1).

[ultracapper]

Works fine. I'm very comfortable with it. I'm not going to bet a 15-1 if I see a 3-1 that I know will beat it. I don't bet any horse if I can't isolate it, at least in my head, as the most likely winner in the field.

I break the 3-1 rule all the time. Really, I wish I didn't. If I took all the bets I've placed on horses 5-2 or shorter in my life, I know damn well I'm in the red on them. And I'd bet my strike rate on the longer priced horses is every bit as good as it is on the shorter priced horses. For me to land on a horse at 15-1, I have to see something that hits me between the eyes. Because of the way I've been conditioned as a horse bettor from the start, I'm pretty careful about what longer priced horses I play. I'm not going to play a 15-1 just because I like the trainer/jockey or it's last workout or anything as simple as that. It has to be something I saw on the track.

I never bet on a horse because of the odds, I bet on it because I like it. The odds and the reason I landed on it determine how much I'll bet, but the odds alone will never determine whether I'll bet it or not.

[thaskalos]

Works fine. I'm very comfortable with it. I'm not going to bet a 15-1 if I see a 3-1 that I know will beat it. I don't bet any horse if I can't isolate it, at least in my head, as the most likely winner in the field.

I break the 3-1 rule all the time. Really, I wish I didn't. If I took all the bets I've placed on horses 5-2 or shorter in my life, I know damn well I'm in the red on them. And I'd bet my strike rate on the longer priced horses is every bit as good as it is on the shorter priced horses. For me to land on a horse at 15-1, I have to see something that hits me between the eyes. Because of the way I've been conditioned as a horse bettor from the start, I'm pretty careful about what longer priced horses I play. I'm not going to play a 15-1 just because I like the trainer/jockey or it's last workout or anything as simple as that. It has to be something I saw on the track.

I never bet on a horse because of the odds, I bet on it because I like it. The odds and the reason I landed on it determine how much I'll bet, but the odds alone will never determine whether I'll bet it or not.

I'd be willing to bet you that that's not the case. If your 15-1 selections were winning as often as your 3-1 picks...then you'd be a lot richer than you currently are. :)

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks Ultracapper for the add'l info. I just felt you were passing a lot of opportunities. If you're comfortable, that's more important.

[ultracapper]

I wish I hadn't done this. Ignorance is bliss. But I just reviewed all the bets I've placed this year. I can tell which were 5-1 or shorter from the 6-1 or longer by the way I structure the bet. I just looked at my TVG history since the first of the year.

I've placed 43 bets on horses 5-1 or shorter. 11 winners, 10 places
I've placed 22 bets on horses 6-1 or longer. 4 winners, 4 places.

I'd have to hit 7 of my next 21 bets at 6-1 or higher. That would be a decent run.

[Rookies]

[/B]
The best advice I ever received from a mentor was,"Every race is NOT playable"!

This is a version of Tom's original post or this equivalent, in relation to ALL Sports Betting:

"The Star Spangled Banner goes off somewhere, every day."

[rubicon55]

"Don't let your mistakes define you, let it refine you"

[pondman]

I wish I hadn't done this. Ignorance is bliss. But I just reviewed all the bets I've placed this year. I can tell which were 5-1 or shorter from the 6-1 or longer by the way I structure the bet. I just looked at my TVG history since the first of the year.

I've placed 43 bets on horses 5-1 or shorter. 11 winners, 10 places
I've placed 22 bets on horses 6-1 or longer. 4 winners, 4 places.

I'd have to hit 7 of my next 21 bets at 6-1 or higher. That would be a decent run.

Why not take those 22 long ones on the nose for $100? Whatever you are doing that's working? That's at least a 1.27 ROI, probably a lot more. Build something with that. Study that.

[ultracapper]

Why not take those 22 long ones on the nose for $100? Whatever you are doing that's working? That's at least a 1.27 ROI, probably a lot more. Build something with that. Study that.

I just did it to see if I was hitting the longer priced horses at the same rate as the shorter priced horses. I thought I'd hit a few more longer priced horses than that this year. My ROI on all bets this year is 1.16, not exactly what I'm looking for, but better than last year's 1.10. So, moving forward anyhow.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Be prepared to lose what you can only afford to lose and no more.