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Ray2000
02-26-2014, 11:25 AM
I guess it's too early to tell but...
The last 100 races I looked at for the Meadowlands, only 19 winners were NOT positioned 1 2 or 3 at the 3/4 pole.

in 2013 mid-feb./mid-march it was 38/142 ...27%

Question

Does anyone feel the wind factor effect has changed because of the new stretch direction (Northwest)
and The Big M will be even more of a speed favoring track?

LottaKash
02-26-2014, 02:24 PM
I guess it's too early to tell but...
The last 100 races I looked at for the Meadowlands, only 19 winners were NOT positioned 1 2 or 3 at the 3/4 pole.

in 2013 mid-feb./mid-march it was 38/142 ...27%

Question

Does anyone feel the wind factor effect has changed because of the new stretch direction (Northwest)
and The Big M will be even more of a speed favoring track?

Ray, I find that very strange as well....Especially so for a one mile track...

And you know, without trying to sound too disparaging or down, but so far, I am not at all satisfied with the Big-M's lineup of horses and the quality of product...

Of course it is still winter and many of the better horses are still on vacation, but what has been offered so far, imo, is just a bunch of cheap out of shape horses, and when you add in the (so far) position at the 3/4 bias, in many races, I am completely clueless.....That wasn't always so for me, and that is why I thought I would share my take on M1 so far....

Maybe the turns need to be banked more....And, as you said, maybe the wind or lack of it in certain portions of the race may be a big factor, especially this time of the racing season, with the cold and all....Or maybe we should bring back the wooden sulkies....:D (humorous dig intended Pandy)...

Otherwise, ah-dunno Ray...:confused: ...I wanted and expected more at M1, is all..

jtschmidt
02-26-2014, 02:25 PM
Any opinions on this is roughly also the time period where Cambell and Pierce started not driving for their seperate reasons. I have seen too much Gingras stealing middle halfs and I think that aspect may be involved.

Joey

mrroyboy
02-26-2014, 04:38 PM
The question is this. Is it Meadowlands or harness racing in general that leads to more early type winners? Pandy calls it zip. The point is most good horses today have some early speed ability.
True mile tracks should have more closers winning but like John says. We will find out when the BigM summer meet begins with all the top horses.

Just a Fan
02-26-2014, 08:13 PM
I'm not sure what to make of it. The 19 horses that did win from off the pace had average odds of 10-1, so its not like you had to be a stickout on paper to win from off the pace.

I think the drivers colony is so thin right now, the guys driving the best horses are having little trouble putting those horses in position to win. Most of the overmatched drivers (Bongiorno a notable exception) tend not to drive aggressively in the race. Just looking at last week's charts, I can't really find too many well bet horses that failed to rally from behind.

Lets say a "live" horse is 4.0 to 1 or less. Saturday night, 24 horses went off at that price or lower. 21 of them were already 1-2-3 at the 3/4 call. That doesn't leave a lot of live horses trying to come from behind. The 3 "live" horses that did try to rally finished 1st, 2nd, and 9th, so they did fine. To me, its not a front end bias when the horses that are failing to rally are almost entirely price horses.

Not to say that there haven't been nights where you just couldn't win from off the pace... just using Saturday night as an example, and offering a different way to analyze a track card for a bias.

Stillriledup
02-26-2014, 09:29 PM
The question is this. Is it Meadowlands or harness racing in general that leads to more early type winners? Pandy calls it zip. The point is most good horses today have some early speed ability.
True mile tracks should have more closers winning but like John says. We will find out when the BigM summer meet begins with all the top horses.

The biggest difference between harness and runners is that in harness racing if a heavy favorite has an inside post and gets away 3rd, its almost 100% that the driver of that favorite will brush to the front and the leader will grab and let him clear easily. Harness horses, being more docile than the runners, can easily be "grabbed" and relaxed and raced positionally.

In harness racing, many horses can race upwards of 40 times per year, some even close to 50, so there's no real urgency to win TODAY like there is in the thoroughbreds.

grant miller
02-27-2014, 03:17 PM
good post sru-i make money by trainer moves:ThmbUp: at the tracks -the meds dont exite me anymore, saratoga harnress is gonna be good this year:D

LottaKash
02-27-2014, 04:03 PM
:confused: ...I wanted and expected more at M1, is all..

The quality of racing at M1 so far is "piss-poor", imo....

For instance, if you take a look at tonite's card, Thurs 02 27, one can quickly see how crappy racing can really get....This is one of the reason I don't play certain tracks....But no excuse for Big-M...

Hey, I have been playing this venue for oh so many years, and I know that winter racing isn't always the best, but this card and the meet so far, are chit...

Given that, is it any wonder why the horses with good position going to the 3/4's, will win most of the races so far ?....

The sheer "out of shapeness" of the entrants prevent them from doing anything significant about the wise drivers who are smart enough to know what is presently going on, and that take a big advantage off that premise alone.....The out of shape horses simply cannot respond to any of it....They are not in shape to do it...

I wouldn't and couldn't confidently bet a "nickel" on any one race on tonite's card...

But hey, that is me.....I demand at least a semblance of Speed and Fitness in order for me to have any confidence in my plays....I don't see it here, is all...

Ugly...

mrroyboy
02-27-2014, 04:28 PM
Agreed I said in the contest page it's a real bad card.

pandy
02-28-2014, 09:00 AM
The track is more speed favoring when there is a headwind, but not on non-headwind nights. If you try to take an average, then, yes, it will show that it's more speed favoring than it used to be. Remember, those headwinds that favor horses close to the lead used to favor closers.

In the warmer weather there aren't as many windy nights but a warm night with headwinds should be even more speed favoring than a cold night with headwinds.

As for the cards, overall they were pretty good but lately since they added Thursday, some of the Thursday cards were very weak. But you have to realize that the typical Meadowlands bettor doesn't care. As a customer of mine put it to me, "The Meadowlands is a gambler's track."

Big M bettors like 10 horse fields and wide open inscrutable races where they can play a bunch of combinations and hope to get a big hit.

LottaKash
02-28-2014, 01:30 PM
As a customer of mine put it to me, "The Meadowlands is a gambler's track."

Big M bettors like 10 horse fields and wide open inscrutable races where they can play a bunch of combinations and hope to get a big hit.

Good luck with that long term....:D

I like open races too, but not a whole menu, nite after nite, of the inscrutable ones...You can get a very good bang for your buck in races that have many in shape horses, and that is where I believe the seasoned veteran has an advantage... And often enough, the payouts can be "very generous" in certain situations that contain a number of formful and contentious horses ....

Otherwise it is a lot of chalk winners or "the hatpin method"....

pandy
02-28-2014, 01:48 PM
I agree with you, but that's not the Meadowlands player. And it works, the handle there dwarfs any other harness track only three thoroughbred tracks have handled more per race this winter.

mrroyboy
02-28-2014, 02:19 PM
The average fan wants carry overs and stuff like that. The fact that they should never even bet big carryovers seriously doesn't enter their minds. But remember like poker skilled players beat bad players with the house getting it's share. Horseracing is exactly the same.

LottaKash
02-28-2014, 03:44 PM
I agree with you, but that's not the Meadowlands player. And it works, the handle there dwarfs any other harness track only three thoroughbred tracks have handled more per race this winter.

That's it Bob, and I agree with you as well....As, my greatest wish is for the Big-M to remain healthy and prosperous because it is has always been my favorite of all the tracks....I have a very long and very interesting history there...

One of my other wishes is for M1 to have more racing dates added right along with getting their pick of the litter, of the horses that are currently in training, and will choose to compete there...

C1, c2, c1, c2 ,c1, c2...blah, blah, blah.... I wish they would go back to more interesting classes....That is my 3rd wish...haha...fat chance...

bigeastbeast
03-01-2014, 11:49 PM
Plus,the old grandstand has yet to come down.It may change even more.

LottaKash
03-02-2014, 12:42 AM
Plus,the old grandstand has yet to come down.It may change even more.

Perhaps, that may may make a difference in the wind factor....What with those historical swirling winds, and the vast open space that will be present once the grandstand comes down

May be a good thing in the long run....:jump:....We will see...

pandy
03-02-2014, 07:34 AM
Big M handled 4.1 million last night, first time since April of 2009 they went over 4 million. Quite remarkable.