backandlay
04-08-2004, 10:30 AM
Keeneland
2.45 R4 No9 Dixieland Man - Decided to go with what shapes as the big value runner in this field to start proceedings for the day. 1st starter who is very bred by Sire: Dixieland Band (Northern Dancer) $50,000 service fee Dam: Wings Point (Alydar). Comes into this after 2 very sharp works back on 22Feb TP 4f ft :46.2 B 1/11 and 14Feb TP 4f ft :47.4 B 1/29. These works have been followed up by 3 more solid works to reach near peak fitness for today's 1st up assignment over 7 furlongs. Average trainer and jockey form / stats but prepared to overlook with trainer having good figures in one sphere of relevance Maiden Sp Wt (11 18% -0.71 ). Sire also has 20% win strike rate with 1st time starters and dam has 3 winners from 4 starters in total. Works indicate has the ability to negate wide alley by going forward early without too much pressure and securing a good run in transit leading or 2nd with other Dixieland Band youngster and pre post favorite Salute The Troops. Dixieland Man has worked better than Salute The Troops and is much better value pre post so prepared to take the punt here at the big double figure odds pre post.
Keeneland
3.15 R5 No3 Cherry Bomb - Very hard to dismiss the chances of Cherry Bomb in what shapes as a 2 horse race for mine between it and Vision Of Beauty. Cherry Bomb drops back to 7f having 3rd career start after last start finishing 1.7l 3rd in A34000n1x company over 1m1/16th. That day dueled on pace and held on well in the stretch. Go on 1st career start when went wire to wire over 6 furlongs winning in Mdn 32K company by 5.3 after vying on the inside before drawing off in the stretch to win as it liked in a 12 horse field. Very well bred by Sire: Honor Grades (Danzig) $15,000 service fee Dam: Jealous And Jaded (Jade Hunter) and produced a sharp work out since being freshened for today's assignment when on 03Apr Kee 4f ft :49 B 10/59. Get a Hot Jockey in last 7 days ( 17 5- 2- 1) and trainer has very good figures across 5 spheres of relevance inc 31-90daysAway ( 760 24% -0.07 ) Sprnt-Rte-Sprnt ( 25 40% +0.95 ) Rte to Sprint ( 52 27% -0.20 ) Btn favorite ( 265 30% -0.36 ) Allowance ( 706 24% -0.33 ). Drawn well to take advantage of natural seen speed ability and likely to find front without too much pressure early. Should then kick in the stretch and prove the testing material for these. Only minor query for mine is the 7f trip as would prefer to see it over 6 furlongs but is proven and has the necessary upside to win here and increase career mark.
Aqueduct
3.21 R6 No7 Yellowstone Lady - Decided to go with Yellowstone Lady in this who seems well suited at 1st try over a route trip today. Forget last start and go on good effort 3 back over 6 furlongs when sat on pace 2nd and 3rd in a 5 horse Mdn 41K and finished 2nd beaten 0.7l with 6 lengths back to 3rd after working home well over the stretch recording the necessary pars throughout that suggests it can negate the wide alley today and find a good position either leading or 2nd without too much early pressure today. Horse finishing 3rd that day won next two starts franking the form out of the race. With a good trip mid race should close off better than the rest and hold sway to the wire. Carries a good career mark of 7 0 - 3 - 0 $30,154 and blinkers come off with trainer having 33.33% strike rate with blinkers off a big pointer. Also is well bred by Sire: Crafty Prospector (Mr. Prospector) $20,000 service fee Dam: Dixieland Gold (Dixieland Band). The query runner is Verve by Unbridled drawn the inside gate but for mine this is better value at the odds and rates a bigger chance and worth backing here.
Keeneland
3.45 R6 No9 Mighty Fortress - Decided to lean towards the well bred lightly raced improver Mighty Fortress in this open looking affair on paper. Having 8th career start and 2nd start on turf. Go on big effort last start over 7.5f when led wire to wire in MC40000 company to win 2.7*2.7*1.5l on turf in a run full of hidden upside. Also note 2nd career start when over 1 mile on dirt in Mdn42K company finished 1.5l 3rd leading from the outset to only be run down in final stages. Has the necessary speed early to negate wide alley and cross to take a forward position on pace without too much pressure early. Has shown very strong closing ability and after a good run mid race can kick and hold sway in the stretch here. Should improve again as is 4th up now and is at peak fitness now. Very well bred by Sire: Unbridled (Fappiano) $200,000 service fee Dam: Whirl Series (Roberto). Has put in a bullet work since last start 05Apr CD 4f ft :48 B 1/30 to further increase fitness for today's assignment. Trainer has very good percentages across 6 spheres of influence inc Shipper ( 153 23% -0.47 ) 2nd grass race ( 15 13% -0.87 ) Mdn win L/R ( 34 24% -0.31 ) Turf starts ( 137 17% -0.74 ) Sprnt-Sprnt-Rte ( 15 47% +1.92 ) Sprint to Rte ( 47 32% +0.18 ). Definite chance here for mine on exposed factors and a very good price pre post. Definitely worth the punt despite a few other query runners being engaged.
Aqueduct
3.50 R7 No1 Mistda - Very hard to go past the lightly raced improver Mistda here. Drops sharply in class here and also from 1m1/16 back back to 1 mile today after last start showing the necessary pars that suggest it can take advantage of the good draw today to go forward and dictate the pace without any pressure early. From there can kick in the stretch and hold sway with proven superior late race pars to the rest. Has a very good career record for this grade of 6 2 - 1 - 0 $64,076 and is well bred by Sire: Runaway Groom (Blushing Groom (Fr)) $15,000 service fee Dam: Tanuki (Affirmed). Trainer carries excellent figures across 3 spheres of influence inc 31-90daysAway ( 697 26% -0.18 ) Btn favorite ( 237 31% -0.18 ) Allowance ( 491 24% -0.28 ). Go on big win 3 back when won 5.7*4*2l in A44000n1x after last two starts in stakes company to make it two on end. Repeat of that form will see it super hard to toss here.
Keeneland
4.15 R7 No4 Final Round - Went with the proven class runner in this field in Final Round. 1st up from a spell here and very well suited on exposed form. Big effort 1st up last prep over 6f when unsuited by the short trip to finish 1l 2nd in OC75000N after producing very strong closing pars. If that was 7f would have won with ease and drops in class on that effort here today back to All62K today. Go also on 1st up win 2 preps ago when over 7 furlong won LaTroienne-G3 after coming from 2-3 lengths off the pace on the turn to win by a length after being bumped at the start and brushing other runners in the stretch. Win was full of merit once again recording very strong closing pars. Superbly bred by Sire: Storm Cat (Storm Bird) $500,000 service fee Dam: Profit Column (Private Account) and has a very good career record for this grade of 12 3 - 3 - 4 $286,336. Trainer has decent figures across three spheres of influence inc 31-90daysAway ( 377 12% -0.91 ) Shipper (284 17% -0.66 ) Allowance ( 298 16% +0.18 ). From the 4 post today should get a good trip 3rd or 4th behind the leaders and with too much late race speed close over the top to win this as one of the best bets of the day so far.
Aqueduct
4.20 R8 No3 Tactical Plus - Decided to lean towards Tactical Plus in this small field of very evenly matched types on paper. 3rd up now and at peak fitness and seems to get the most things to suit here today. Suited by the 7 furlong trip with a 5 2 - 1 - 0 $67,720 mark over this trip. Won last start when went wire to wire after being slightly headed top of the stretch to fight back for grinding win over this distance. Fitter as stated and should be further improved for the run. Most of these have similar early speed ability so the draw becomes paramount and for mine Tactical Plus can get a perfect trip right on leaders heels smoking its pipe with the run of the race. Closes as well of the rest and with the perfect run in transit can kick in the stretch to get home over the top and win. Very well bred for this by Sire: Tactical Advantage (Forty Niner) $8,500 service fee Dam: General Chanel (General Holme) and has a good career mark of 12 3 - 4 - 2 $136,700 and goes well this track with a record of 3 1 - 1 - 1 $42,500. Trainer has very good percentages across 2 spheres of influence inc Wnr last race ( 181 22% -0.28 ) Allowance ( 377 19% -0.55 ). Shapes as good value pre post and with the most going for it here of these and factors above should prove hard to toss.
Bay Meadows
4.46 R3 No3 Kingdom Come - Decided to go with Kingdom come on exposed form. 3rd up now from a spell and at peak of fitness for today's 1m1/16th trip. Having 3rd start in this country after all of earlier efforts over in The UK and go on last start effort over 6.5f when 2.3l 4th OC80000N. Sat on pace that day and battled will in the stretch to keep margin same through the stretch on bold effort especially when considering big class drop for today's assignment. Small 5 horse field here and can go forward to get a good trip 2nd or 3rd with the run of the race. 5 back when 1st up over same trip as today finished 0.2l 2nd to Foley Prince in a 13K Handicap and 6l back to 3rd in a field of 17 indicating the depth of the run. Very well bred by Sire: Foxhound (Danzig) $6,243 service fee Dam: Garter Royale (Ire) (Garde Royale (Ire)). Trainer has acceptable percentages across 5 spheres of influence inc Shipper ( 75 13% -0.84 ) Turf starts ( 362 11% -0.82 ) Sprint to Rte ( 75 12% -0.63 ) Btn favorite ( 48 13% -0.83 ) Allowance ( 87 15% -0.45 ) and this has worked very well on 31Mar SA . (d) 5f fm 1:00ª H 1/2 since last start in preparation for this. Has a definite class edge on these and should win as the biggest certainty of the day so far.
Gulfstream
4.57 R8 No6 The King N Rob - Very hard to dismiss the chances of The King N Rob in this. Looks to have superior early speed to these on big efforts 2 and 3 back when set the pace on both occasions to be only run down on the wire after doing all of the work. Battled gamely in the stretch on both occasions running the necessary closing pars to beat these today. On that basis can negate semi wide alley by crossing to either lead or battle with only other noted leader here Plino drawn in the 2 alley. With only 2 leaders possible through the early and middle stages will run within themselves allowing to close off to the best of ability and test hold sway on the closers. The King N Rob has slightly better late race pars under the scenario and should hold on to win in what is a 2 horse affair for mine. Carries a good career record of 10 2 - 2 - 1 $58,975, good record this distance of 3 1 - 2 - 0 $36,840 and is well bred enough too by Sire: Gold Alert (Mr. Prospector) $2,500 service fee Dam: Bronx Bomber (The Pruner). Trainer carries good percentage in one relevant sphere of influence being Allowance (145 16% +1.31 ). Definitely the one to beat for mine with a slight query around the short price pre post.
Oaklawn
5.37 R8 No1 Floor Dancer - A race full of lightly raced well performed speed merchants here. Decided to lean towards Floor Dancer who is undefeated coming into this with a mark of 2 2 - 0 - 0 $14,700. Perfectly drawn in the 1 alley and has the ability to go forward here and take a sit on the pace 3rd or 4th behind the leaders smoking its pipe. Both starts so far has gone wire to wire but today with so much speed outside it jockey likely to take sit and wait for the stretch to close with superior pars. Likely to keep on improving and with the other likely chances having pace queries against them this is the one to beat for mine. Won very well last start 3.7*1.3*6 lengths in Clm30000n2L company over same 6f trip as today's assignment. Trainer has good percentages across 2 spheres of influence inc Wnr last race ( 64 20% +1.07 ) Allowance (67 16% +0.49 ) and this one is well bred for this compared to others by Sire: Dance Floor (Star De Naskra) $2,500 service fee Dam: Pretty Miswaki (Miswaki). Suited by the conditions today and for mine is the one to beat here.
Bay Meadows
5.48 R5 No2 Kuhl 'N' Clever - Hard to go past the chances of Kuhl 'N' Clever in this race. Comes into this off a career mark of 3 2 - 1 - 0 $25,620 and is very well bred by Sire: Miswaki (Mr. Prospector) $30,000 service fee Dam: Dancer’s Glamour (Danzig Connection). Go on big win last start when set the pace and went wire to wire leading by 3 lengths into the stretch then kicked well clear to win by 8 lengths on the line. Recorded the necessary pars to suggest it will find the lead easy here today without any pressure early allowing once again to kick away with superior late race speed and win again to make it three on end. Trainer carries good percentages across 2 spheres of influence inc Wnr last race ( 295 25% -0.02 ) Allowance (90 16% -0.04 ). Drops slightly in class for today's assignment and worked up a storm on 14Mar GG 4f ft :46.2 H 1/62 before big last start win. Itsaprospector drawn the extreme outside gate shapes as the only query but is drawn the outside alley and doesn't seem to have the early pace to match it with Kuhl 'N Clever who is perfectly drawn and should just get a un-pressured run in front and win here as one of the best bets of the day.
Oaklawn
6.29 R10 No7 Shake You Down - Decided to lean towards the proven Group 1 performer Shake You Down here who is the class runner in this field. Totally forget 1st up failure and go on good form from last preparation. Should be some sort of price today after last start failure and has the ability to negate the wide alley by going forward early with natural seen speed advantage to lead here through the early stages. Consummate sprinter who closes races off and with a predicted edge through the middle stages can hold sway to the wire here. Comes into this with a very good career mark of 38 15 - 6 - 4 $1,165,060 and trainer has a good record across 2 spheres of influence inc NonGraded Stk ( 131 20% -0.44 ) Btn favorite ( 1201 26% -0.42 ). Slightly unfashionably bred by Sire: Montbrook (Buckaroo) $20,000 service fee Dam: Mauvin Gway (Rajab) but is totally proven with all wins coming over this distance in its career. Noted jockey change for 2nd up assignment and is fitter now. Query runners exist but if puts best foot forward should handle this lot and with with class edge and superior seen speed throughout.
Santa Anita
6.36 R6 No3 Beautiful Balance - Decided to lean towards Beautiful Balance in this turf affair over 1 mile today. Has displayed previously has the ability to show good early pace on turn and assume forward positions and then kick and hold sway in the stretch. Won 1st up this prep this track, distance and grade to set a cracking pace and hold on by 0.7l. Last start 2nd up dropped back to 6.5f and got nailed on the wire when beaten 0.5l same class. Also go on big win 5 back when came from midfield Clm32000 Del Mar to win over 1m1/16th in best career performance 1*3.5l in a run full of merit. Drawn well to go forward and either lead or get the run of the race without too much early pressure allowing to show usual closing ability and hold sway here again. Loves this track with a record of 5 3 - 1 - 1 $116,280 and has a comparatively good career record to the balance of these of 21 8 - 3 - 1 $281,046 and turf record is exceptional for this reading 11 6 - 2 - 1 $220,760. Minor query is having 1st start for new trainer who has appalling figures across 5 spheres of influence but prepared to overlook as is well bred for this by Sire: General Meeting (Seattle Slew) $20,000 service fee Dam: Lace Dancer (Irish River (Fr)). On exposed form should prove hard to beat under the conditions and represents good value pre post.
Santa Anita
7.07 R7 No3 Mango Escapade - Hard to dismiss the chances of Mango Escapade resuming from a spell here. Would prefer to see this over 5.5f instead of 6f but prepared to back at the value odds. Go on big win last start when having 1st try this track before spelling over 5.5f when dueled early under a fast pace before kicking clear to win 4*3*3l in C40000 company in a very impressive speed display. Up slightly in class today for this assignment but has the natural speed to go forward early and dictate the pace here for mine. With a natural speed advantage should get a good run mid race with no pressure allowing to kick over the 6f and hold sway down to the wire. Carries in a good career record of 11 2 - 1 - 4 $80,575, has decent breeding by Sire: Bold Badgett (Damascus) $2,500 service fee Dam: Icy Escapade (He’s Our Native) and on that does look to have a fair bit of upside for this. Very good value pre post and should have every chance of going wire to wire here today to win.
2.45 R4 No9 Dixieland Man - Decided to go with what shapes as the big value runner in this field to start proceedings for the day. 1st starter who is very bred by Sire: Dixieland Band (Northern Dancer) $50,000 service fee Dam: Wings Point (Alydar). Comes into this after 2 very sharp works back on 22Feb TP 4f ft :46.2 B 1/11 and 14Feb TP 4f ft :47.4 B 1/29. These works have been followed up by 3 more solid works to reach near peak fitness for today's 1st up assignment over 7 furlongs. Average trainer and jockey form / stats but prepared to overlook with trainer having good figures in one sphere of relevance Maiden Sp Wt (11 18% -0.71 ). Sire also has 20% win strike rate with 1st time starters and dam has 3 winners from 4 starters in total. Works indicate has the ability to negate wide alley by going forward early without too much pressure and securing a good run in transit leading or 2nd with other Dixieland Band youngster and pre post favorite Salute The Troops. Dixieland Man has worked better than Salute The Troops and is much better value pre post so prepared to take the punt here at the big double figure odds pre post.
Keeneland
3.15 R5 No3 Cherry Bomb - Very hard to dismiss the chances of Cherry Bomb in what shapes as a 2 horse race for mine between it and Vision Of Beauty. Cherry Bomb drops back to 7f having 3rd career start after last start finishing 1.7l 3rd in A34000n1x company over 1m1/16th. That day dueled on pace and held on well in the stretch. Go on 1st career start when went wire to wire over 6 furlongs winning in Mdn 32K company by 5.3 after vying on the inside before drawing off in the stretch to win as it liked in a 12 horse field. Very well bred by Sire: Honor Grades (Danzig) $15,000 service fee Dam: Jealous And Jaded (Jade Hunter) and produced a sharp work out since being freshened for today's assignment when on 03Apr Kee 4f ft :49 B 10/59. Get a Hot Jockey in last 7 days ( 17 5- 2- 1) and trainer has very good figures across 5 spheres of relevance inc 31-90daysAway ( 760 24% -0.07 ) Sprnt-Rte-Sprnt ( 25 40% +0.95 ) Rte to Sprint ( 52 27% -0.20 ) Btn favorite ( 265 30% -0.36 ) Allowance ( 706 24% -0.33 ). Drawn well to take advantage of natural seen speed ability and likely to find front without too much pressure early. Should then kick in the stretch and prove the testing material for these. Only minor query for mine is the 7f trip as would prefer to see it over 6 furlongs but is proven and has the necessary upside to win here and increase career mark.
Aqueduct
3.21 R6 No7 Yellowstone Lady - Decided to go with Yellowstone Lady in this who seems well suited at 1st try over a route trip today. Forget last start and go on good effort 3 back over 6 furlongs when sat on pace 2nd and 3rd in a 5 horse Mdn 41K and finished 2nd beaten 0.7l with 6 lengths back to 3rd after working home well over the stretch recording the necessary pars throughout that suggests it can negate the wide alley today and find a good position either leading or 2nd without too much early pressure today. Horse finishing 3rd that day won next two starts franking the form out of the race. With a good trip mid race should close off better than the rest and hold sway to the wire. Carries a good career mark of 7 0 - 3 - 0 $30,154 and blinkers come off with trainer having 33.33% strike rate with blinkers off a big pointer. Also is well bred by Sire: Crafty Prospector (Mr. Prospector) $20,000 service fee Dam: Dixieland Gold (Dixieland Band). The query runner is Verve by Unbridled drawn the inside gate but for mine this is better value at the odds and rates a bigger chance and worth backing here.
Keeneland
3.45 R6 No9 Mighty Fortress - Decided to lean towards the well bred lightly raced improver Mighty Fortress in this open looking affair on paper. Having 8th career start and 2nd start on turf. Go on big effort last start over 7.5f when led wire to wire in MC40000 company to win 2.7*2.7*1.5l on turf in a run full of hidden upside. Also note 2nd career start when over 1 mile on dirt in Mdn42K company finished 1.5l 3rd leading from the outset to only be run down in final stages. Has the necessary speed early to negate wide alley and cross to take a forward position on pace without too much pressure early. Has shown very strong closing ability and after a good run mid race can kick and hold sway in the stretch here. Should improve again as is 4th up now and is at peak fitness now. Very well bred by Sire: Unbridled (Fappiano) $200,000 service fee Dam: Whirl Series (Roberto). Has put in a bullet work since last start 05Apr CD 4f ft :48 B 1/30 to further increase fitness for today's assignment. Trainer has very good percentages across 6 spheres of influence inc Shipper ( 153 23% -0.47 ) 2nd grass race ( 15 13% -0.87 ) Mdn win L/R ( 34 24% -0.31 ) Turf starts ( 137 17% -0.74 ) Sprnt-Sprnt-Rte ( 15 47% +1.92 ) Sprint to Rte ( 47 32% +0.18 ). Definite chance here for mine on exposed factors and a very good price pre post. Definitely worth the punt despite a few other query runners being engaged.
Aqueduct
3.50 R7 No1 Mistda - Very hard to go past the lightly raced improver Mistda here. Drops sharply in class here and also from 1m1/16 back back to 1 mile today after last start showing the necessary pars that suggest it can take advantage of the good draw today to go forward and dictate the pace without any pressure early. From there can kick in the stretch and hold sway with proven superior late race pars to the rest. Has a very good career record for this grade of 6 2 - 1 - 0 $64,076 and is well bred by Sire: Runaway Groom (Blushing Groom (Fr)) $15,000 service fee Dam: Tanuki (Affirmed). Trainer carries excellent figures across 3 spheres of influence inc 31-90daysAway ( 697 26% -0.18 ) Btn favorite ( 237 31% -0.18 ) Allowance ( 491 24% -0.28 ). Go on big win 3 back when won 5.7*4*2l in A44000n1x after last two starts in stakes company to make it two on end. Repeat of that form will see it super hard to toss here.
Keeneland
4.15 R7 No4 Final Round - Went with the proven class runner in this field in Final Round. 1st up from a spell here and very well suited on exposed form. Big effort 1st up last prep over 6f when unsuited by the short trip to finish 1l 2nd in OC75000N after producing very strong closing pars. If that was 7f would have won with ease and drops in class on that effort here today back to All62K today. Go also on 1st up win 2 preps ago when over 7 furlong won LaTroienne-G3 after coming from 2-3 lengths off the pace on the turn to win by a length after being bumped at the start and brushing other runners in the stretch. Win was full of merit once again recording very strong closing pars. Superbly bred by Sire: Storm Cat (Storm Bird) $500,000 service fee Dam: Profit Column (Private Account) and has a very good career record for this grade of 12 3 - 3 - 4 $286,336. Trainer has decent figures across three spheres of influence inc 31-90daysAway ( 377 12% -0.91 ) Shipper (284 17% -0.66 ) Allowance ( 298 16% +0.18 ). From the 4 post today should get a good trip 3rd or 4th behind the leaders and with too much late race speed close over the top to win this as one of the best bets of the day so far.
Aqueduct
4.20 R8 No3 Tactical Plus - Decided to lean towards Tactical Plus in this small field of very evenly matched types on paper. 3rd up now and at peak fitness and seems to get the most things to suit here today. Suited by the 7 furlong trip with a 5 2 - 1 - 0 $67,720 mark over this trip. Won last start when went wire to wire after being slightly headed top of the stretch to fight back for grinding win over this distance. Fitter as stated and should be further improved for the run. Most of these have similar early speed ability so the draw becomes paramount and for mine Tactical Plus can get a perfect trip right on leaders heels smoking its pipe with the run of the race. Closes as well of the rest and with the perfect run in transit can kick in the stretch to get home over the top and win. Very well bred for this by Sire: Tactical Advantage (Forty Niner) $8,500 service fee Dam: General Chanel (General Holme) and has a good career mark of 12 3 - 4 - 2 $136,700 and goes well this track with a record of 3 1 - 1 - 1 $42,500. Trainer has very good percentages across 2 spheres of influence inc Wnr last race ( 181 22% -0.28 ) Allowance ( 377 19% -0.55 ). Shapes as good value pre post and with the most going for it here of these and factors above should prove hard to toss.
Bay Meadows
4.46 R3 No3 Kingdom Come - Decided to go with Kingdom come on exposed form. 3rd up now from a spell and at peak of fitness for today's 1m1/16th trip. Having 3rd start in this country after all of earlier efforts over in The UK and go on last start effort over 6.5f when 2.3l 4th OC80000N. Sat on pace that day and battled will in the stretch to keep margin same through the stretch on bold effort especially when considering big class drop for today's assignment. Small 5 horse field here and can go forward to get a good trip 2nd or 3rd with the run of the race. 5 back when 1st up over same trip as today finished 0.2l 2nd to Foley Prince in a 13K Handicap and 6l back to 3rd in a field of 17 indicating the depth of the run. Very well bred by Sire: Foxhound (Danzig) $6,243 service fee Dam: Garter Royale (Ire) (Garde Royale (Ire)). Trainer has acceptable percentages across 5 spheres of influence inc Shipper ( 75 13% -0.84 ) Turf starts ( 362 11% -0.82 ) Sprint to Rte ( 75 12% -0.63 ) Btn favorite ( 48 13% -0.83 ) Allowance ( 87 15% -0.45 ) and this has worked very well on 31Mar SA . (d) 5f fm 1:00ª H 1/2 since last start in preparation for this. Has a definite class edge on these and should win as the biggest certainty of the day so far.
Gulfstream
4.57 R8 No6 The King N Rob - Very hard to dismiss the chances of The King N Rob in this. Looks to have superior early speed to these on big efforts 2 and 3 back when set the pace on both occasions to be only run down on the wire after doing all of the work. Battled gamely in the stretch on both occasions running the necessary closing pars to beat these today. On that basis can negate semi wide alley by crossing to either lead or battle with only other noted leader here Plino drawn in the 2 alley. With only 2 leaders possible through the early and middle stages will run within themselves allowing to close off to the best of ability and test hold sway on the closers. The King N Rob has slightly better late race pars under the scenario and should hold on to win in what is a 2 horse affair for mine. Carries a good career record of 10 2 - 2 - 1 $58,975, good record this distance of 3 1 - 2 - 0 $36,840 and is well bred enough too by Sire: Gold Alert (Mr. Prospector) $2,500 service fee Dam: Bronx Bomber (The Pruner). Trainer carries good percentage in one relevant sphere of influence being Allowance (145 16% +1.31 ). Definitely the one to beat for mine with a slight query around the short price pre post.
Oaklawn
5.37 R8 No1 Floor Dancer - A race full of lightly raced well performed speed merchants here. Decided to lean towards Floor Dancer who is undefeated coming into this with a mark of 2 2 - 0 - 0 $14,700. Perfectly drawn in the 1 alley and has the ability to go forward here and take a sit on the pace 3rd or 4th behind the leaders smoking its pipe. Both starts so far has gone wire to wire but today with so much speed outside it jockey likely to take sit and wait for the stretch to close with superior pars. Likely to keep on improving and with the other likely chances having pace queries against them this is the one to beat for mine. Won very well last start 3.7*1.3*6 lengths in Clm30000n2L company over same 6f trip as today's assignment. Trainer has good percentages across 2 spheres of influence inc Wnr last race ( 64 20% +1.07 ) Allowance (67 16% +0.49 ) and this one is well bred for this compared to others by Sire: Dance Floor (Star De Naskra) $2,500 service fee Dam: Pretty Miswaki (Miswaki). Suited by the conditions today and for mine is the one to beat here.
Bay Meadows
5.48 R5 No2 Kuhl 'N' Clever - Hard to go past the chances of Kuhl 'N' Clever in this race. Comes into this off a career mark of 3 2 - 1 - 0 $25,620 and is very well bred by Sire: Miswaki (Mr. Prospector) $30,000 service fee Dam: Dancer’s Glamour (Danzig Connection). Go on big win last start when set the pace and went wire to wire leading by 3 lengths into the stretch then kicked well clear to win by 8 lengths on the line. Recorded the necessary pars to suggest it will find the lead easy here today without any pressure early allowing once again to kick away with superior late race speed and win again to make it three on end. Trainer carries good percentages across 2 spheres of influence inc Wnr last race ( 295 25% -0.02 ) Allowance (90 16% -0.04 ). Drops slightly in class for today's assignment and worked up a storm on 14Mar GG 4f ft :46.2 H 1/62 before big last start win. Itsaprospector drawn the extreme outside gate shapes as the only query but is drawn the outside alley and doesn't seem to have the early pace to match it with Kuhl 'N Clever who is perfectly drawn and should just get a un-pressured run in front and win here as one of the best bets of the day.
Oaklawn
6.29 R10 No7 Shake You Down - Decided to lean towards the proven Group 1 performer Shake You Down here who is the class runner in this field. Totally forget 1st up failure and go on good form from last preparation. Should be some sort of price today after last start failure and has the ability to negate the wide alley by going forward early with natural seen speed advantage to lead here through the early stages. Consummate sprinter who closes races off and with a predicted edge through the middle stages can hold sway to the wire here. Comes into this with a very good career mark of 38 15 - 6 - 4 $1,165,060 and trainer has a good record across 2 spheres of influence inc NonGraded Stk ( 131 20% -0.44 ) Btn favorite ( 1201 26% -0.42 ). Slightly unfashionably bred by Sire: Montbrook (Buckaroo) $20,000 service fee Dam: Mauvin Gway (Rajab) but is totally proven with all wins coming over this distance in its career. Noted jockey change for 2nd up assignment and is fitter now. Query runners exist but if puts best foot forward should handle this lot and with with class edge and superior seen speed throughout.
Santa Anita
6.36 R6 No3 Beautiful Balance - Decided to lean towards Beautiful Balance in this turf affair over 1 mile today. Has displayed previously has the ability to show good early pace on turn and assume forward positions and then kick and hold sway in the stretch. Won 1st up this prep this track, distance and grade to set a cracking pace and hold on by 0.7l. Last start 2nd up dropped back to 6.5f and got nailed on the wire when beaten 0.5l same class. Also go on big win 5 back when came from midfield Clm32000 Del Mar to win over 1m1/16th in best career performance 1*3.5l in a run full of merit. Drawn well to go forward and either lead or get the run of the race without too much early pressure allowing to show usual closing ability and hold sway here again. Loves this track with a record of 5 3 - 1 - 1 $116,280 and has a comparatively good career record to the balance of these of 21 8 - 3 - 1 $281,046 and turf record is exceptional for this reading 11 6 - 2 - 1 $220,760. Minor query is having 1st start for new trainer who has appalling figures across 5 spheres of influence but prepared to overlook as is well bred for this by Sire: General Meeting (Seattle Slew) $20,000 service fee Dam: Lace Dancer (Irish River (Fr)). On exposed form should prove hard to beat under the conditions and represents good value pre post.
Santa Anita
7.07 R7 No3 Mango Escapade - Hard to dismiss the chances of Mango Escapade resuming from a spell here. Would prefer to see this over 5.5f instead of 6f but prepared to back at the value odds. Go on big win last start when having 1st try this track before spelling over 5.5f when dueled early under a fast pace before kicking clear to win 4*3*3l in C40000 company in a very impressive speed display. Up slightly in class today for this assignment but has the natural speed to go forward early and dictate the pace here for mine. With a natural speed advantage should get a good run mid race with no pressure allowing to kick over the 6f and hold sway down to the wire. Carries in a good career record of 11 2 - 1 - 4 $80,575, has decent breeding by Sire: Bold Badgett (Damascus) $2,500 service fee Dam: Icy Escapade (He’s Our Native) and on that does look to have a fair bit of upside for this. Very good value pre post and should have every chance of going wire to wire here today to win.