Gotham Stakes

[andtheyreoff]

Nice field assembled here- Samraat v. Uncle Sigh, plus the return of Futurity winner In Trouble.

:1: Noble Cornerstone
:1a: Samraat
:2: In Trouble
:3: Financial Mogul
:4: Uncle Sigh
:5: Monopolize
:6: Deceived
:7: Classic Giacnroll
:8: Extrasexyhippster
:9: Master Lightning
:10: Harpoon

[tanner12oz]

I like harpoon

[letswastemoney]

It seems like a bad joke they're still trying with Monopolize.

[precocity]

:1: :1a: :cool:

[Thebigguy]

It seems like a bad joke they're still trying with Monopolize.

Whats the joke? The horse stinks, but he has raced only 3x. He cost half a million, should they give up on him after three races?
I have recently seen you tout worst horses here and on derbytrail.com!! Just saying....

[Thebigguy]

Uncle Sigh is the best horse in this race. I hope the jockey change is enough to get him home.

[letswastemoney]

Whats the joke? The horse stinks, but he has raced only 3x. He cost half a million, should they give up on him after three races?
I have recently seen you tout worst horses here and on derbytrail.com!! Just saying....
You really aren't too nice to anyone, and I know what I'm doing so I don't need comments like these. You've done nothing but aim to discredit me here.

[Thebigguy]

You really aren't too nice to anyone, and I know what I'm doing so I don't need comments like these. You've done nothing but aim to discredit me here.


I dont want to discredit you. Im cool with anyone who wants to talk horse racing. I was making a point, I apologize if your taking things that way.

[olddaddy]

:1: :1a: :cool:


Pound it to place then.

[classhandicapper]

IMO this is a very good edition of the Gotham. There are quite a few very good horses in that field and a few others that are better than they look on paper. I make make a rare trip to Aqueduct.

[maclr11]

Last derby winner to win the Gotham was secretariat.
Last horse to hit the board in derby out of the Gotham was aptitude who was 2nd in both in 2000'
Hard to say it's been a relevant prep in the last number of years

[bgbootha]

Eleven 3 year olds with their sights set on Churchill Downs enter the G3-Gotham Stakes, with the winner receiving 50 points toward their run to the Kentucky Derby and all but assuring the a spot in the Derby gates. The 1 1/16 mile race on the Aqueduct Inner Dirt will feature two young horses that have yet to lose in their short careers.

IN TROUBLE – This is one of the most interesting horses in the field, the undefeated Anthony Dutrow trained horse hasn’t raced since the middle of September after an impressive win in the G2-Belmont Futurity. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSJQfWCp1z4) In Trouble ran just off a solid pace set by the 9/5 favorite Corfu, coming up down the stretch and pulling away over the final furlong without a great deal of urging from jockey Joseph Rocco. In Trouble hasn’t raced in 5 months and will take on 2 turns for the first time, stretching out from 6 furlongs back in September to a 1 1/16 mile seems like quite a stretch.

FINANCIAL MOGUL – After a poor showing in the Holy Bull Stakes Financial Mogul looks to bounce back and take on another graded stakes field here in the Gotham Stakes. Financial Mogul hasn’t been close in his last three starts which have all been graded stakes. He finished a far back 4th in the Belmont Futurity in September followed by a 2 ½ length loss in the Nashua Stakes. Financial Mogul is coming 2nd off a layoff and has been working out well but just seems over classed here in the stakes world.

UNCLE SIGH – The duel between Uncle Sigh and Samraat just a few weeks ago in the Withers was a race to remember. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ASff8sZ1PA) Uncle Sigh has only won 1 of his three races, but that single win was by 14 lengths and his two losses were by less than a combined 1 length. Uncle Sigh looked strong in his close loss to Samraat a few weeks ago and hasn’t ran a race with a Brisnet speed figure under 96. Uncle Sigh adds a bullet workout two weeks ago and looks forward to a rematch with Samraat again in the Gotham.

NOBLE CORNERSTONE – Noble Cornerstone was a disappointing favorite in the Sam F Davis stakes on the first of February finishing a far back 7th at less than 2-1. Some may point to the layoff heading into the Sam F Davis and now will be coming 2nd off the layoff. Noble Cornerstone will also place the blinkers back on after taking them off for his poor showing and could return back to the same form that had him in the mix during his first two races.

MONOPOLIZE – Nothing like a horse making a class jump after a poor showing against weaker horses in his last race. Monopolize is coming off a tough showing 6th place in an OC75k race in which he was never a factor in the overall race. While his pedigree points toward a decent runner at this distance, Monopolize hasn’t shown the ability to run a race close to the finish of a graded stakes. The addition of blinkers may bring some money onto this longshot, but in the end I don’t see him close to the finish.

DECEIVED – Another horse making a jump in class from a OC75K race is Deceived. The difference is that Deceived won his OC race by more than 8 lengths across the same Aqueduct Inner Dirt that the Gotham will be held on. Deceived took a big jump his last time out after losing to Samraat by 19 lengths in the race previously in December. Deceived may have a better case then Monopolize, but neither belong in the conversation regarding the Gotham.

CLASSIC GIACNROLL – We liked Classic Giacnroll going into the Withers, but he spent the race watching Samraat and Uncle Sigh battle and finish 14 lengths ahead of him a few weeks ago. After two solid racing moving into the route distance, Classic Giacnroll took a large step back in the Withers. A solid second place in the G2 – Jerome stakes seem so long ago and yet another rider change doesn’t point toward a horse that may not have graded stakes in his future.

SAMRAAT – Undefeated in four starts and coming off a two strong showing at over a mile, Samraat should be the post time favorite. In fact Samraat hasn’t been worse than 1.15-1 in in last three starts. The Withers finished with Samraat out dueling the leader Uncle Sigh as they moved down the stretch. The interesting aspect of watching the replay of that race (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ASff8sZ1PA) Uncle is that Jose Ortiz doesn’t seem to really be asking for everything Samraat had as he pulled away from Uncle Sigh in the last parts of the race. I don’t think we have seen the best of what Samraat has to offer and that’s scary considering the Wither’s is the first time he has had a horse finish within 3 lengths of the finish. Two back to back 99 Brisnet speed ratings shows his ability to win this race without a strong move forward. The outside post position could be a problem if Samraat goes out for the lead. If Samraat can show that he can rate just off the pace, this horse could be something special.

EXTRASEXYHIPPZSTER – On top of having the best name in the race, this isn’t a horse to overlook here in the Gotham. Extrasexyhippzster is taking a jump up in class that could be troublesome, but his last race was impressive win in the ungraded Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFffcMYVKPE)Extrasexyhippster is another horse that I am not sure we have seen everything from Julian Pimentel never had to test the horse in the Miracle Wood, and Extrasexyhippzster’s win in the Don Rickles Stakes wasn’t close either winning by an easy 5 lengths in 6 furlongs along the Aqueduct inner dirt. I will be interested in what kind of price you will be able to get on this one come post time, I don’t think he can beat Samraat, but if someone can it may be Extrasexyhippzster.

MASTER LIGHTNING - Being the most raced horse in the field may not help Master Lightning here in this field. Finishing a far back 4th in the Miracle Wood to ExtraSexy after a rough 7th in the Jerome doesn’t enlist a great deal of belief that Master Lightning belongs in this field for the Gotham. Speed figures aren’t anywhere close to what would be needed to win here and pedigree doesn’t point toward the ability for a huge jump. Master Lightning hasn’t finished in the money in four stakes tries and really hasn’t been within 6 lengths during any of those races. I don’t see his luck changing in the Gotham and he shouldn’t be part of the overall picture.

HARPOON – Harpoon is coming off a strong showing second place in the Sam F Davis stakes down in Tampa back on the first of February losing by a nose. The far outside post is not going to help Harpoon who is going to have to rate off the pace and will need help from the rest of the field to have a shot at the winners circle. Harpoon has been working out very well recently and looks to be in good form, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Harpoon in the money here and will probably get a few of the points for the Derby. But catching Uncle Sigh, Samraat or ExtraSexy is going to be tough coming through the rest of the traffic. If the pace is insane and the winner comes from the rear, Harpoon may have a shot to hunt down the leaders, but its going to take a perfect trip.

The pace in this race is going to be interesting the inside gates will look to pounce on the pace with In Trouble leading the way. It will be interesting to see what Uncle Sigh and Samraat do when In Trouble pressing the pace from the inside. In Trouble is a quality horse with question marks, they can’t just let him take an easy pace on the lead and hope that he doesn’t have the distance in him. But if one of them jumps out with him they may open it up to the other who rates just behind them. In the end I think its Samraats race to lose, he just looks too good at up to this point. I will be keeping my eye on ExtraSexy as a long shot who may produce some good value.

[Robert Fischer]

nice analysis :ThmbUp:

[PhantomOnTour]

This thread title sounds is ominous foreboding.

[precocity]

Pound it to place then.
great post very smart man! :sleeping:

[bgbootha]

This thread title sounds is ominous foreboding.

Ouch never thought of it that way...may have to choose my words better next time. :bang:

[Robert Fischer]

FINANCIAL MOGUL – After a poor showing in the Holy Bull Stakes Financial Mogul looks to bounce back and take on another graded stakes field here in the Gotham Stakes. Financial Mogul hasn’t been close in his last three starts which have all been graded stakes. He finished a far back 4th in the Belmont Futurity in September followed by a 2 ½ length loss in the Nashua Stakes. Financial Mogul is coming 2nd off a layoff and has been working out well but just seems over classed here in the stakes world.


The major difference in opinion between our Gotham analysis would be Financial Mogul. I rated his Holy Bull effort a lot higher than you did. While I don't see him as a derby contender like Intense Holiday or Cairo Prince(,or even a fringe possibility like Conquest Titan), I do have him as a grade 3 horse who fits well enough here to hit the board in the Gotham.

I also am much less a fan of Samraat's potential. If this race sets up for his speed like the Withers did, he could well sprint around to win his 5th consecutive victory. When he faces some adversity, I think his streak will end.

[Bennie]

Monopolize cross entered in Tampa Stakes race on Sunday. Let's see where he goes.

[Bennie]

My Bad - He is listed at Calder on Sunday

[dirty moose]

My contenders (no order) :1a:,:3:,:4:,:8:,:10:

[1ejp]

I'll be interested to see if there's a bias on Saturday. Very cold weather forecast might bring a speed favoring track. In that case, I will bet the better odds between Samraat and Uncle Sigh or pass. If no bias is apparent, I will look for Harpoon to pick up the pieces. He will be in striking distance and Irad knows the track best.

[bgbootha]

The major difference in opinion between our Gotham analysis would be Financial Mogul. I rated his Holy Bull effort a lot higher than you did. While I don't see him as a derby contender like Intense Holiday or Cairo Prince(,or even a fringe possibility like Conquest Titan), I do have him as a grade 3 horse who fits well enough here to hit the board in the Gotham.

I also am much less a fan of Samraat's potential. If this race sets up for his speed like the Withers did, he could well sprint around to win his 5th consecutive victory. When he faces some adversity, I think his streak will end.

Hmm, I would love to know what makes you think he has Grade 3 potential. I haven't seen it. Don't get me wrong, I have been horribly wrong about young 3 year olds before. But I don't see this one poppign anytime soon.

[bgbootha]

And as far as Samraat is concerned, I still don't think we have seen the best of this horse yet. I just grabbed him at 42-1 on the Derby futures pool and really like the value there. (I just looked he is at 41-1 now)

[Robert Fischer]

Hmm, I would love to know what makes you think he has Grade 3 potential. I haven't seen it. Don't get me wrong, I have been horribly wrong about young 3 year olds before. But I don't see this one poppign anytime soon.

The Nashua was a fairly legit grade2/3 race. Cairo Prince has been running Grade 1 efforts and handled that race.
Financial Mogul beat Noble Moon (a legit Grade 3 horse) in the Nashua by half a length. Noble Moon ran better, but they were fairly close.

Financial Mogul was off 83 days for the Holy Bull (skip the Remsen). They don't exactly raise statues of Rick Violette at Gulfstream Park, and FM only showed 2 fast works, and a bunch of Violette's signature conditioning drills.

He had a minor lung issue (ate some dirt?) after his effort in the Holy Bull where he made a big middle move(was the fastest horse in the Holy Bull from 5F-6.5F), and then was beaten to the punch and bounced around by Intense Holiday(grade 1) and Conquest Titan (grade2/3?) during the stretch drive.

Now he was sent to Fair Hill and he shows 2 sharp 5F drills sandwiched around a Violette signature drill. He also gets to race on his home track.

He's not going to run down a loose Samraat, but if these horses mix it up he should hit the board.

[dirty moose]

Harpoon @ 10/1 could deff be a bet. Trip notes say 4 wide into the stretch. He way more than 4 deep and closes like a fright train.

[LAP_520]

David Grening @DRFGrening 5m
Pletcher said that Monopolize likely to scratch from Gotham and point for a race in Florida.

[PhantomOnTour]

:8: Extrasexyhippzster (man I hate that name) will stalk, pounce, and win.

[bgbootha]

Great analysis! Thanks. May just bump him up my board a little bit.

And "They don't exactly raise statues of Rick Violette at Gulfstream Park" was the best line I have read in a while.

[TheGarMan]

For no sensible reason, I am pulling for the :4: (Uncle Sigh). The "fan" in me appreciated his game effort to match strides with Samraat last time out.

(An effort that led me to grab him in Pool II at 73/1)

[Robert Fischer]

For no sensible reason, I am pulling for the :4: (Uncle Sigh). The "fan" in me appreciated his game effort to match strides with Samraat last time out.

(An effort that led me to grab him in Pool II at 73/1)
Hey that's a good enough reason :cool:

Great analysis! Thanks. May just bump him up my board a little bit.

And "They don't exactly raise statues of Rick Violette at Gulfstream Park" was the best line I have read in a while.
It's easy to over-think these races, and talk yourself onto a long-shot. I'm probably going to pass the race, but thinking about using Financial Mogul as a Key horse in some vertical exotics. Violette 2nd-off-the-layoff and in New York could indicate that we'll at least see a consistent effort.


interesting article on Violette's signature conditioning drills for Samraat and Financial Mogul: The mile workout is a dinosaur, a relic of the past and something that can only be read about nowadays in books chronicling legendary horses and horsemen of another era. Right? Well, yes and no... link^ http://www.thisishorseracing.com/news/index.php/this-is-horse-racing/2513-mile-works-work-for-samraat-financial-mogul
(http://www.thisishorseracing.com/news/index.php/this-is-horse-racing/2513-mile-works-work-for-samraat-financial-mogul)

[bgbootha]

It's easy to over-think these races, and talk yourself onto a long-shot. I'm probably going to pass the race, but thinking about using Financial Mogul as a Key horse in some vertical exotics. Violette 2nd-off-the-layoff and in New York could indicate that we'll at least see a consistent effort.



yeah I have tossed around the idea of using Harpoon in some exotic keys depending on the value you can get on him going in. Weather still will play some factor if it gets wet.

But if it stays cold and hard, look for Samraat to have an even easier time.

[Ocala Mike]

:3: :8: :1:

[dirty moose]

Won't be wet, and it was dry and ice cold today. Should be pretty cold tomorrow too. 30's

[bgbootha]

Won't be wet, and it was dry and ice cold today. Should be pretty cold tomorrow too. 30's

Yeah could turn into a raceway....going to pay close attention to the earlier races on the card.

The 1st, 2nd, 7th and 8th races could tell us something useful to use in the Gotham.

[PhantomOnTour]

The major difference in opinion between our Gotham analysis would be Financial Mogul. I rated his Holy Bull effort a lot higher than you did. While I don't see him as a derby contender like Intense Holiday or Cairo Prince(,or even a fringe possibility like Conquest Titan), I do have him as a grade 3 horse who fits well enough here to hit the board in the Gotham.

I also am much less a fan of Samraat's potential. If this race sets up for his speed like the Withers did, he could well sprint around to win his 5th consecutive victory. When he faces some adversity, I think his streak will end.
Didn't he face adversity in the Withers though?
He was denied the lead for the first time ever, and had to fight all the way around.
He had never even seen another horse in his first three races, and then had one on his ass the whole way in the Withers & he still prevailed.
His trip was clean, but that's what usually happens with speed horses.

Not saying that I am backing Samraat (he gets 123lbs today and concedes 7lbs to his Withers rival when he only gave him 2lbs in that race)....however, I do think he has faced an adversity hurdle and cleared it.
He'll get more adversity Saturday and we'll see how he does.

[Robert Fischer]

Didn't he face adversity in the Withers though?

It's all relative. He ran good in the Withers, but I didn't rush out to make Derby futures wagers after seeing that race.

[PhantomOnTour]

Much like Intense Holiday in the Risen Star, I see Financial Mogul getting tons of love on the interwebs.

I used Intense Holiday on top last week (lost my bet anyway) but I cannot get behind Financial Mogul as a winner of this race.
Exotics? - yes
To win? - no way

He closed well in the Nashua, has faced some of the better runners of his generation, had a decent return race and a nice work tab...but I just think he's too slow to catch these. He needs a bit of a collapse to nail them all, in my opinion.

I am still sold on that Extrasexy #8.

[bgbootha]

The two scratches were inconsequential, although there was something about Monopolize I was starting to like.

The issue now is that Samraat will be even closer to the inside on the start from as will ExtraSexyHippzster.

I am still liking Harpoon to get some of that money in the exotics.

:1a: :10: :2: :4:

Good luck all, I am headed out to the local establishment

[theguarantee]

While I have the sinking feeling that someone else will beat him, I can't help but really like Uncle Sigh in here. Training well, well bred, has done nothing wrong. Before the last race Contessa said they hoped someone would go with Samraat but they wouldn't let him coast out front on his own if no one else does. Samraat broke much the best and it forced Uncle Sigh's hands. I really think it took him out of his game. With In Trouble in there today they won't have to worry about that and can take Uncle Sigh off the pace, where I think (still unproven) he will show his true colors. I also think, and I could be dead wrong, that Harpoon may show more speed today. People are acting as if he has no speed because of the last race. From the 10 hole he probably has to drop out of it or go for the front. Dropping out of it probably makes more sense but since he hung so badly last time, would it really be that bold of Pletcher/Ortiz to say we're going?

Ridiculous opinion, I have talked myself into Master Lightning. Have heard everyone completely dismiss him and I initially did too. Honestly, his last at Laurel was really weird. He dropped amazingly far out of it and was never even in the picture. Big deal after walking 6 furlongs I know, but he was closing like a freight train late. Regardless, I think if you cross a line through that (maybe he didn't travel well or like what was a seemingly funky track that day) -- he still comes up a bit slow here but would probably be getting some attention on the connections alone. Pletcher made some intriguing comments about how erratic he's been and that today would be a good day for a talented runner to bring his A game. Might just be overthinking it but I'm not going to let Pletcher sneak this one past me personally. If he finishes dead last I don't think I'll lose any sleep.

Using those two as my A's and In Trouble/Financial Mogul as B's. Tossing the rest.

[Robert Fischer]

I don't have a strong opinion here.

:2: :1a: :3: :10:

In Trouble could be the real deal. Who knows? Maybe he'll break well and save ground on the 1st turn, w/ Samraat going to lead up the backstretch. Uncle Sigh in 3rd. In Trouble wearing down Samraat with Financial Mogul and Harpoon picking up pieces past a tiring Uncle Sigh.


$10 Tris
:2: :1: :3: =$10
:2: :3: :1: =$10
:3: :2: :1: =$10

$2 Tris
1,2 1,2 :3: =$4
1,2 :3: 1,2 =$4
:3: 1,2 1,2 =$4

50cent Tris
1,2, w/ 1,2,4,10 w/ :3: =$3
1,2, w/ :3: w/ 1,2,4,10=$3
:3: w/1,2 w/ 1,2,4,10=$3

$1Daily Double r8
2,4,6 with :2: :3: = $6

total $57

[reckless]

I see a big effort by In Trouble (#2) as the controlling speed from the rail. I am getting to like Extrasexyhippster (#8) with each passing race and seems capable of taking back a bit early until they strengthen out down the backside. If right, the exacta should be nice considering both are legit contenders.

Financial Mogul (#3) should run better today as well for Violette but as mentioned earlier he seems to be the wiseguy horse. I have been around a long time and have never met a wiseguy that knew what they were talking about or seeing :)

Uncle Sigh (#4) will be over bet and I will view him as a bet-against. It's also possible that Samraat (#1A), also trained by Violette, will be the sacrificial lamb sent early to help 'Mogul', although no one will admit that in polite company.

Not sure what to make of Harpoon (#10), but then again, Pletcher always has me guessing. Post does hurt chances but if he's also able to finish late against what I perceive to be very fast early pace, could be very enticing, especially at a square price.

Good luck to every one today.

[Robert Fischer]

total $57

$43 double :2::2: $100

[raybo]

I'm basing these strictly on my best method at Aqu, PFV (PowerFormVelocity).

My PFV picks in ranked order are: :9: :8: :1a: :4: :6: :10: :3: :1:
Class horse is :3:
Speed to the 1st call is projected :10: :9: :8: (NOTE: I'm not looking at running styles, only velocities, so these may well not be up front at the 1st call, depending on what the early horses decide to do early, but if they rate behind actual the leaders they will be saving energy for later in the race)

I will play the top 3 PFV ranked horses, based on my long term hit rate for each ranked position (32.92%, 18.81%,13.17% respectively), so I'm NOT focusing on making profit in this individual race, but on the long term (bet these at your risk!):

:9: MASTER LIGHTNING at 3/1 or higher
:8: EXTRASEXYHIPPZSTER at 5/1 or higher
:1a: SAMRAAT at 8/1 or higher

[fast4522]

maybe no surprise.

[Some_One]

:2: :4: :8: here, surprising how light of action :1a: is getting on BF, above 3-1, thought he would be lower even with the fact he's a standalone bet on BF.

[Some_One]

:2: :4: :8: here, surprising how light of action :1a: is getting on BF, above 3-1, thought he would be lower even with the fact he's a standalone bet on BF.

Sorry, :4: :2: :8: is my corrected order

[Robert Fischer]

Let it Stand!

good race by all three and the winner :1a:

[Stillriledup]

Let it Stand!

good race by all three and the winner :1a:

Zero chance of a DQ.

[TheGarMan]

Again, so impressed with :4: Uncle Sigh :p

This horse seriously has some "fight" in him.

[Stillriledup]

Again, so impressed with :4: Uncle Sigh :p

This horse seriously has some "fight" in him.

Exciting race for sure, the winner was very impressive with all that ground loss and carrying more weight than the the two he was battling with.

[bgbootha]

Samraat clearly the best in this group. Won while running wide of the other two carrying more weight and never had to go to the whip. BOOM

So happy to have him at 31-1 in the futures.

[TheGarMan]

Samraat clearly the best in this group. Won while running wide of the other two carrying more weight and never had to go to the whip. BOOM

So happy to have him at 31-1 in the futures.

I too grabbed some "Samraat" at 30/1 as the moments ticked down.

Glad I did ! :)

[raybo]

It was a heck of a battle up front. Don't know how the track was playing as I only looked at this race, it appeared the pace was not hot, but honest. There was a little bit of bumping down the stretch and I'm not sure the 2 inside horses weren't at a slight disadvantage because of it. Had they been a bit more spread out things might have ended differently. Who knows?

Anyway, I had the winner in my top 3 but just couldn't bet it at 2/1. My other 2 picks didn't fire early from their outside posts, as a result they were forced to lay back the whole way, and then made no moves to speak of. I expected more late, from both of them, frankly. Maybe the pace up front was slower than the fractions appeared? All 3 finishers had plenty left for the stretch, that's for sure. If those fractions were indeed honest, then all 3 finishers ran a heck of a race, and will have to be dealt with going forward.

[classhandicapper]

It was a heck of a battle up front. Don't know how the track was playing as I only looked at this race, it appeared the pace was not hot, but honest.

If anything the track was tilted a little inside, but I wouldn't say there was clear evidence of a bias.

IMO, the winner was best, but given the development, I'd guess Uncle Sigh didn't appreciate being between horses the length of the stretch either. It was a good race.

[fast4522]

In the past I would talk myself into they were running inside or out to the front or from the back, today I conclude they are running right but the prices are not what the once were.

[raybo]

If anything the track was tilted a little inside, but I wouldn't say there was clear evidence of a bias.

IMO, the winner was best, but given the development, I'd guess Uncle Sigh didn't appreciate being between horses the length of the stretch either. It was a good race.

Totally agree! I think that being between horses, that close, is definitely a disadvantage. There appeared to be rubbing and bumping, from the inside horse, and the outside horse, to say nothing of the difficulty of using the whip under those conditions, with a horse up against you on both sides. Not saying that the middle horse would have won, but he very well might have been able to perform better had he not been in that tight situation. That being said, I'm glad the stewards let it go, it was a great stretch drive and none of the horses involved quit or gave way much.

Exciting finish!!

[raybo]

In the past I would talk myself into they were running inside or out to the front or from the back, today I conclude they are running right but the prices are not what the once were.

The prices probably reflected the fact that the race ran the way many thought it would.

[fast4522]

And the fact that the software is way better now than in the day.

[raybo]

And the fact that the software is way better now than in the day.

That too. But that's not always a good thing, if you end up on the public's choices too often.

[PhantomOnTour]

Much like Intense Holiday in the Risen Star, I see Financial Mogul getting tons of love on the interwebs.

I used Intense Holiday on top last week (lost my bet anyway) but I cannot get behind Financial Mogul as a winner of this race.
Exotics? - yes
To win? - no way

He closed well in the Nashua, has faced some of the better runners of his generation, had a decent return race and a nice work tab...but I just think he's too slow to catch these. He needs a bit of a collapse to nail them all, in my opinion.

I am still sold on that Extrasexy #8.
One horse ran like I thought he would (Financial Mogul)
...and one didn't (Extrasexy...)
Very disappointed in his effort - ran last.
Got away badly and was last early. Advanced nicely (under a pretty snug hold) but gassed out in the lane. :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

[fast4522]

That too. But that's not always a good thing, if you end up on the public's choices too often.

How can anyone not agree with that one, but when you divide everyone into two groups there is the other question. Those who will not bet as low as 2-1, and those who did. My sneaking suspicion is that the vast majority would not accept 2-1, and those who did got better rebates than the majority. This too is another change from back in the day.

[raybo]

How can anyone not agree with that one, but when you divide everyone into two groups there is the other question. Those who will not bet as low as 2-1, and those who did. My sneaking suspicion is that the vast majority would not accept 2-1, and those who did got better rebates than the majority. This too is another change from back in the day.

Agree. Rebates have really changed the landscape, regarding low priced horses. Back in the day, the rule of thumb was to run from those low priced horses unless you were betting exotics. But, with the rebates some players are getting today, they can lose money betting them to win and still make money through the rebates they receive. That's certainly not my game, as I don't bet enough money to get a sizable rebate percentage, but the higher odds I bet on more than make up for it.

[raybo]

One horse ran like I thought he would (Financial Mogul)
...and one didn't (Extrasexy...)
Very disappointed in his effort - ran last.
Got away badly and was last early. Advanced nicely (under a pretty snug hold) but gassed out in the lane. :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

I tend to agree. The 3 FM, was my "class" horse, but his numbers weren't good enough to get him in my top 3, while the 8 Ex, had the numbers but failed to get away and into decent position. The 9 and 10 had the same problem early, so 2 of my 3 contenders failed me and the 3rd one won the race but at odds I couldn't/wouldn't bet.

[Smarty Cide]

Samraat clearly the best in this group. Won while running wide of the other two carrying more weight and never had to go to the whip. BOOM

So happy to have him at 31-1 in the futures.


yeah i got him at 50-1 on bovada and 75-1 on Bayern...couldnt be happier right now

[fast4522]

Agree. Rebates have really changed the landscape, regarding low priced horses. Back in the day, the rule of thumb was to run from those low priced horses unless you were betting exotics. But, with the rebates some players are getting today, they can lose money betting them to win and still make money through the rebates they receive. That's certainly not my game, as I don't bet enough money to get a sizable rebate percentage, but the higher odds I bet on more than make up for it.

So since back in the day is not with us we are indeed playing in waters whales feed? Specifically the Gotham Stakes had whales present? Not landscape but rough sea's. :bang:

[bgbootha]

yeah i got him at 50-1 on bovada and 75-1 on Bayern...couldnt be happier right now

Man those are great numbers, I should have jumped on him earlier, I loved him a few weeks ago going into the Withers, but didn't bite on it until this week before the Gotham. Nice work.

[cj's dad]

Pound it to place then.

Yeah, I wanna pound those 9/5 shots to place all day long :D

[classhandicapper]

One horse ran like I thought he would (Financial Mogul)
...and one didn't (Extrasexy...)
Very disappointed in his effort - ran last.
Got away badly and was last early. Advanced nicely (under a pretty snug hold) but gassed out in the lane. :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

I used Financial Mogul and Uncle Sigh.

1. I thought Uncle Sigh was working like he might take a step forward and also thought he could sit just off the pace this time and get a better trip.

2. I thought Samraat was likely to face some early pressure again and/or get hung out wide early.

3. I thought Financial Mogul had an excuse in his last. He raced inside "early" on a day I thought inside was not the best place to be. He also "supposedly" came out of the race with some minor lung issues, but had been working great since. His previous race against Cairo Prince was good, and enough time had passed to think he could run faster if you were concerned about the lower speed figures. He figured a decent trip off the pace inside if things got hot up front.

So I thought Uncle Sigh had a decent shot of turning the tables on Samraat at the price and used Financial Mogul at his price also.

Uncle Sigh ran very well, but Samraat ran even better. Financial Mogul disappointed me, but I wasn't shocked.

[TheGarMan]

Looks like they are going to go at it again!

I hope this battle is as good as the last two! :)

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/2014/03/02/gotham-gladiators-renew-rivalry-wood-memorial

[Valuist]

Agree. Rebates have really changed the landscape, regarding low priced horses. Back in the day, the rule of thumb was to run from those low priced horses unless you were betting exotics. But, with the rebates some players are getting today, they can lose money betting them to win and still make money through the rebates they receive. That's certainly not my game, as I don't bet enough money to get a sizable rebate percentage, but the higher odds I bet on more than make up for it.

But at a lot of places, you only get a good rebate in exotics.