Favorite Craving Carats pulled up Race 2 at SA (Feb 23)

[Stillriledup]

And magically goes off the SECOND favorite.

Carats was a decided favorite in the DD, was the favorite as the gate loaded, was pulled up a few seconds after the race started, and went off about 2,500 dollars BEHIND another horse despite being a clear DD favorite and a clear place pool favorite and a clear show pool favorite.

The 2nd place finisher also went from 7-2 to 5-2 after he established a clear lead a few yards out of the gate.

[Dark Horse]

Horse racing needs to clean up the obvious past posting. Fountain of Youth yesterday as well. Speed favoring track that day. I had the 4 and 5 at the odds they went off at (and had been hovering around for ten-fifteen minutes), but those odds were dramatically different (worse for both!) on the backstretch. Sure enough, the 4 and 5 were in front (and finished 1 and 2). How obvious does it have to get? That's a race with a lot of money bet on it, so the late money was big.

[Some_One]

Horse racing needs to clean up the obvious past posting. Fountain of Youth yesterday as well. Speed favoring track that day. I had the 4 and 5 at the odds they went off at (and had been hovering around for ten-fifteen minutes), but those odds were dramatically different (worse for both!) on the backstretch. Sure enough, the 4 and 5 were in front (and finished 1 and 2). How obvious does it have to get? That's a race with a lot of money bet on it, so the late money was big.

The winner was 5-1 entering the gate (4-1 off), the runner up was 4-1 entering the gate (3-1 off). Not dramatic, lots of value around as the fav was a crazy price at evens with a couple of mins to post.

[Dark Horse]

In a field of 13, in a race with a lot of money bet, I find that percentage change, for the lead horses on a speed favoring track, quite remarkable. If it was an isolated incident, fine. But it's not. People always think it's the sharp money rather than past posting.

[Some_One]

In a field of 13, in a race with a lot of money bet, I find that percentage change, for the lead horses on a speed favoring track, quite remarkable. If it was an isolated incident, fine. But it's not. People always think it's the sharp money rather than past posting.

I think you just answered why they were hammered late, people smarter than you saw two very good speedy horses starting on the inside on a speed favoring track were nice odds compared to the heavily bet fav stuck on the outside running against the bias.

[Robert Fischer]

In a field of 13, in a race with a lot of money bet, I find that percentage change, for the lead horses on a speed favoring track, quite remarkable. If it was an isolated incident, fine. But it's not. People always think it's the sharp money rather than past posting.

There seemed(I don't have an accurate pool time sheet in front of me) to be a lot of late money on each of the :1::4::5: in the FOY.

I wouldn't be shocked if it was in fact sharp money here. Dutching the 3 contenders big and late.


Would be nice to see actual timestamps for late cancels or wagers over a given percentage of WPS mutuel pool.

Example FOY = $1,000,000 WPS MUTUEL POOL x 1% = $10K

Timestamps for the official start time, and for the last 3 wagers and last 3 cancels of ≥$10K would be shown on the official site for anyone to look up.

[Dark Horse]

I think you just answered why they were hammered late, people smarter than you saw two very good speedy horses starting on the inside on a speed favoring track were nice odds compared to the heavily bet fav stuck on the outside running against the bias.

They may well have been smarter than me, but as mentioned, I had the 4 and 5. How smart does that make you?

Interesting that people readily believe in cheating trainers, but think past posting is not an issue.

[Track Phantom]

And magically goes off the SECOND favorite.

Carats was a decided favorite in the DD, was the favorite as the gate loaded, was pulled up a few seconds after the race started, and went off about 2,500 dollars BEHIND another horse despite being a clear DD favorite and a clear place pool favorite and a clear show pool favorite.

The 2nd place finisher also went from 7-2 to 5-2 after he established a clear lead a few yards out of the gate.

I saw the same thing and questioned it BUT there is one major flaw in this argument. The incident happened 10 seconds into the race and the odds dropped on the other horses at right around the same time. There would be no way someone could cancel a bet (or make a bet) and have it show up in the pools that quickly.

[Stillriledup]

I saw the same thing and questioned it BUT there is one major flaw in this argument. The incident happened 10 seconds into the race and the odds dropped on the other horses at right around the same time. There would be no way someone could cancel a bet (or make a bet) and have it show up in the pools that quickly.

Lets hope you're right, i'd hate to think people are cancelling after watching the beginning part of the race. Still seems odd that the stricken horse who was the legit favorite in other pools went off 2nd choice. Maybe just a coincidence.

[burnsy]

Horse racing needs to clean up the obvious past posting. Fountain of Youth yesterday as well. Speed favoring track that day. I had the 4 and 5 at the odds they went off at (and had been hovering around for ten-fifteen minutes), but those odds were dramatically different (worse for both!) on the backstretch. Sure enough, the 4 and 5 were in front (and finished 1 and 2). How obvious does it have to get? That's a race with a lot of money bet on it, so the late money was big.

I got burned by that too. I lost but I would not of bet General a Rod at 3-1 and I waited at the machine till the last minute...it went to 4-1 back to 9-2 then back to 4-1, right after I bet. Gate opens they take off....its 3-1. That's a lot of money in a race like that, I agree. I didn't look at the pool but it was Saturday and it was the FOY. The speed was so good yesterday and those horses figured anyway...minus the hype they had the best races over the track. Some people must of hammered both and of course I bet the wrong one to win..........anyway,,,i didn't think the :4: would make it:bang: . You do got to wonder how that much money gets in, cancellations or they have to do better with posting odds in real time.

[Track Phantom]

Lets hope you're right, i'd hate to think people are cancelling after watching the beginning part of the race. Still seems odd that the stricken horse who was the legit favorite in other pools went off 2nd choice. Maybe just a coincidence.

It is normal to question it, as I did, too. Just not sure how the odds would reflect a change that quickly.

Having said that, I think past posting likely occurs.

[Dark Horse]

I got burned by that too. I lost but I would not of bet General a Rod at 3-1 and I waited at the machine till the last minute...it went to 4-1 back to 9-2 then back to 4-1, right after I bet. Gate opens they take off....its 3-1. That's a lot of money in a race like that, I agree. I didn't look at the pool but it was Saturday and it was the FOY. The speed was so good yesterday and those horses figured anyway...minus the hype they had the best races over the track. Some people must of hammered both and of course I bet the wrong one to win..........anyway,,,i didn't think the :4: would make it:bang: . You do got to wonder how that much money gets in or they have to do better with posting odds in real time.

Exactly.

There's late money, and then there's LATE money.

[therussmeister]

Interesting that people readily believe in cheating trainers, but think past posting is not an issue.
Are you sure the same people that believe in cheating trainers don't think past posting is an issue.

[Stillriledup]

It is normal to question it, as I did, too. Just not sure how the odds would reflect a change that quickly.

Having said that, I think past posting likely occurs.

I agree, you have to question it....hopefully the "board" who reviews this stuff is hard at work making sure there's no shenanigans.

[burnsy]

I can't say there is for sure...I wouldn't even make the accusation, but its fishy in this case and at least questionable 1.) The amount of money that took and 2.) The gate opens, everyone and their brother knows how the track is playing and the first two out by open lengths...are the lowest odds they have been in 22 minutes...down the backstretch. 3.) The favorite was like 3-5, 1-1 then I believe 9-5, not sure because I didn't like him but that's close to how it went...who pulled out on that bet? And who would make that horse 3-5 to begin with? The horse had little chance yesterday and the :12: hole. Someone else complained about pool manipulation and I laughed because it was a 6 horse field and the pool was nothing like this....I have to re think after yesterday..i may owe the guy an apology. I think guys are making big bets on the favorite canceling it after everyone else "piles on" and somehow miraculously at the last second transferring the bet to the number they really liked all along???? And I hate conspiracy theories but I think people maybe right. That was kind of shady yesterday or a "lucky coincidence".

[duncan04]

Wow this and the Gulfstream bad beat thread makes one wonder why anyone keeps playing this game? :D

[alydar]

I am not much of a believe in past posting conspiracies. I for one would like to see betting stop when they start the load. There could even be a countdown clock. That would not eliminate big changes that come with the late money, but would eliminate all of the conspiracy theories that are out there all the time about past posting. Integrity and trust are paramount for the survival and potential growth of the sport. An early cut off, although unpopular with many would help put more trust in the game.

[Stillriledup]

I am not much of a believe in past posting conspiracies. I for one would like to see betting start when they start the load. There could even be a countdown clock. That would not eliminate big changes that come with the late money, but would eliminate all of the conspiracy theories that are out there all the time about past posting. Integrity and trust are paramount for the survival and potential growth of the sport. An early cut off, although unpopular with many would help put more trust in the game.

They just need to make a rule that says if you make a bet, you own the bet, no cancellations no matter what....that would solve the problem of '"odds changes" without having to close the pools early.

[nijinski]

The horse had a $40,000 claim on him voided . Stewards said he was off in the rt foreleg shortly after the start . So let's hope he is ok and sorry for your losses , this does happen .

[Stillriledup]

The horse had a $40,000 claim on him voided . Stewards said he was off in the rt foreleg shortly after the start . So let's hope he is ok and sorry for your losses , this does happen .

There have been a TON of "voided claims" recently, i can't keep track of them all.

[EMD4ME]

I can't say there is for sure...I wouldn't even make the accusation, but its fishy in this case and at least questionable 1.) The amount of money that took and 2.) The gate opens, everyone and their brother knows how the track is playing and the first two out by open lengths...are the lowest odds they have been in 22 minutes...down the backstretch. 3.) The favorite was like 3-5, 1-1 then I believe 9-5, not sure because I didn't like him but that's close to how it went...who pulled out on that bet? And who would make that horse 3-5 to begin with? The horse had little chance yesterday and the :12: hole. Someone else complained about pool manipulation and I laughed because it was a 6 horse field and the pool was nothing like this....I have to re think after yesterday..i may owe the guy an apology. I think guys are making big bets on the favorite canceling it after everyone else "piles on" and somehow miraculously at the last second transferring the bet to the number they really liked all along???? And I hate conspiracy theories but I think people maybe right. That was kind of shady yesterday or a "lucky coincidence".

Can't know for sure but I would venture to say that's what happened here. Maybe someone was planning on betting the 4 and 5. Bet 50000 on the 12 early, hoping people pile on. He/she cancels and bets 25000 on the 4 & 5. We will never know.

[Stillriledup]

I saw the same thing and questioned it BUT there is one major flaw in this argument. The incident happened 10 seconds into the race and the odds dropped on the other horses at right around the same time. There would be no way someone could cancel a bet (or make a bet) and have it show up in the pools that quickly.

I just did the "math" again on the tapes....the odds changed about 12 seconds after it was obvious the horse was being pulled up, the odds on the screen changed at the exact same time the money showed up on the toteboard at the track, if you slow down the frames, you can see exactly when the last flash comes in, and its about 12 seconds after it was obvious the horse was being pulled up and about 16 seconds after the actual start of the race.

I think it only took 4 or 5 seconds before it was obvious the horse was being eased.

[tanner12oz]

I bet Normandy invasion who ran around the track showing 1-2 and hot his picture taken at 1-5...which is a HUGE difference..i really think having a countdown clock on screen and freezing wagers 2 minutes to post is the solution..i.know that's when all the money pours in but integrity should be number 1

[Stillriledup]

I bet Normandy invasion who ran around the track showing 1-2 and hot his picture taken at 1-5...which is a HUGE difference..i really think having a countdown clock on screen and freezing wagers 2 minutes to post is the solution..i.know that's when all the money pours in but integrity should be number 1

Integrity will start to matter if bettors just walked away and said "enough".

When bettors keep coming back, there's really no reason to change anything.

[Track Phantom]

I really don't understand the argument against stopping betting at 1 minute before they load. People will adjust.

What's the difference if I get shut out when they break from the gate or shut out when they start to load?

People will adjust to it, trust me.

[Some_One]

I really don't understand the argument against stopping betting at 1 minute before they load. People will adjust.

What's the difference if I get shut out when they break from the gate or shut out when they start to load?

People will adjust to it, trust me.

Did people ever adjust to synthetic surfaces?

[nijinski]

There have been a TON of "voided claims" recently, i can't keep track of them all.

I guess you also know then that Miller had two breakdowns in three days , lost both horses , He's Not Too Shaby and Code Of Conduct .
The voided claim on Craving Carats confirms a possible injury .
Maybe the jock here was cautious ,maybe it was worse .

While I truly understand the some of the suspicious remarks here . I think
there could be another problem here pointing either to the track surface
or the soundness of the horses . Three DNF's , two confirmed euthanized
and one with no reports yet. All within a few weeks . Very bad luck for this barn ?

[wisconsin]

I really don't understand the argument against stopping betting at 1 minute before they load. People will adjust.

What's the difference if I get shut out when they break from the gate or shut out when they start to load?

People will adjust to it, trust me.


NYRA tried that after the Arlington BC scam for awhile.

[alydar]

I remember that CD and its tracks did too. The problem was that not all tracks went along. A common problem in the industry, no coordination between tracks. Just look at the simulcast signals. It is not uncommon to see multiple tracks go off at the same time.

[nijinski]

So if there are those who are making large bets and changing that bet
at the last minute . Do they not have as much chance to lose as everyone
else ?

[senortout]

Of course they do, but many of these cancels are intentional, indicating pool manipulation. Betting show for example with large amounts of cash demands more than casual knowledge. Betting win with large amounts demands even further precision. A sho-in to win demands the patience of Job.







So if there are those who are making large bets and changing that bet
at the last minute . Do they not have as much chance to lose as everyone
else ?