Let's handicap 2/22/14 GP Race 10

[whodoyoulike]

STAKES. 1 Mile Turf. Purse $150,000. Canadian Turf S. (Grade 3). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. ($15,000 bonus for FTBOA Registered Florida-Bred by an FTBOA Registered Florida Sire). Free nomination, $1,500 to pass the entry box and $750 additional to start, with $150,000 Guaranteed. All fees shall be paid prior to the start of the race. The owner of the winner to receive $90,000, $30,000 to second, $15,000 to third, $7,500 to fourth, $4,500 to fifth and $3,000 to sixth. Weight: 123 lbs. Non-winners of a Grade I or II stakes at a mile or over on the turf since October1, allowed 2 lbs.; of a graded stakes at a mile or over on the turf since June 1, allowed 4 lbs.; $45,000 at a mile or over since July 1, 6 lbs. In the event this stakes is taken off the turf, it may be subject to downgrading upon review of the Graded Stakes Committee. Trophy to the winning owner. Closed Saturday, February 8, 2014 with 41 Nominations. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 72 feet).. (05:01 PM) (12)
Post Time: (5:03)/4:03/3:03/2:03

Free BRIS PP

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=GP&race=10&param1=1600&param2=1760&param3=1429940


Use the poll to vote which horse you feel will most likely win. Let's discuss how you would structure your wager(s), how you think the race will run, etc., in the rest of the thread.

The Poll #'s are in PP order not Program order.

[Robert Fischer]

This is a tough race for me in that I don't have a real strong opinion.

Would seem that :1: will set an honest pace on or near the lead down at the rail.
:3: , :5: and :6: should be in touch stalking/pressing.
The :2: and :9: could be midpack.

There aren't a bunch of favorites in here that have been consistent graded stakes horses. You have horses bouncing around between stakes and "creative spots" like starter allowance races.
For the most part it has some hard-hitting alw/stks type horses, some who happen to be running well lately, and some who are getting started off the layoff.

[jk3521]

Wondering if the :12: could move forward here?

[Thebigguy]

This is a spread race for me as I think the race before it is ripe for an upset and after it is chalk. If I can catch my price if the Davona Dale I want to be 5 deep in this spot. 1,2,4,5,12 are my horses.

[Thebigguy]

I think the 3 is a total toss on the win end.

[1ejp]

Like the 3. Two nice beyers after previous freshenings one a grade 3. 3/3 dist and 2/2 course.

:3: to win at a price

:3:/:9: exacta

[Mystic]

Just now glancing at the P.P's.. What an incredibly TOUGH race! At first glance I like about 4 of them to win.. Yikes!

[wonatthewire1]

:2: :10:

Looking for value in this one
:10: is always in the mix up close to the wire and all recent works have been on the turf

:2: 3 weeks since last race which was a win back on the turf, might have some injury issues (all the time off after a few races) but Mott brings him back with a 5F work last week

[Ocala Mike]

I am on the :3: . Two 7f works, one of them in 1:22 BREEZING at the training center. Contessa has him wired for speed; in front as far as he goes. Can't recall seeing a 7f workout in 1:22 ever before.

[porkchop]

wide open

exbox :10: / :1: :6: :9:

[FiveWide]

Great idea for a thread/poll. Responses might be a little on the low side for this race since it has been selected for one of the contests on this site. I'll go handicap the other race you have and give my input there.

-Five

[Valuist]

Interesting that the 3 and 12 have received more votes than anyone else. I'd like to see that; I'm against both.

[taxicab]

Great betting race.
:11: GUYS REWARD{12-1}:Easily handled Salto (4-1) in his last.
Good race flow should help him nicely.
This race is his third off of a vacation,might move forward again.

[Mystic]

Great betting race.
:11: GUYS REWARD{12-1}:Easily handled Salto (4-1) in his last.
Good race flow should help him nicely.
This race is his third off of a vacation,might move forward again.
He's always been a favorite of mine. I hope he can pull it off tomorrow :)

[NJ Stinks]

I expect to include on the :2: , :11: and :12: on my horizontal plays. And I may bet more than one of these horses to win if the odds are enticing.

I may come up empty but it's hard to envision a mile turf stake with more early speed in it.

[burnsy]

:1: and :9: ...I can't play the :3: until he runs a good one again.

[JohnGalt1]

For me this is a race to pass or hit the all button.

The :3: :7: and :10: have the highest Performance Class ability numbers.

The :4:(from a Sam Houston race that has a very slow turf course) :6: :8: :9: and :11: have the top Total pace Ratings.

The :4: :8: :10: and :12: have the fastest final fraction.

That's why I will pass.

Good luck with your selections.

[riskman]

This wide open Grade 3 turf route has lots of speed up front.
Difficult for me to come up with a confident opinion. Will lean towards a closer and hope the #10 Hampstead Heath coming off a layoff is ready. Has decent works and has the the right running style and fits class wise. The #9 Bad Debt and #11 Guys reward could also show up here.

This race is a crap shoot and looking for odds of 10-1 on the #10 to get interested for a w/p bet. Probably will take a pass unless the odds board provides a premium for me on this or others here in the race.

[FrankieFigs]

Tough, fun race to handicap. Narrowed it down to three but could've used 8.

I landed on #2 Unbridled Ocean. Should see close to the same pace scenario as his last race. Not too worried about his trip midpack as Johnny V. has been riding well lately. Really liked #12 Abtaal but I think the post position is gonna hurt his chances. Like him and #9 Bad Debt underneath.

[whodoyoulike]

GP Race 10 8f (T) Gr 3

I see a very contentious race. All are contenders except :7: NORTH STAR BOY (but, I’m concerned since he qualifies).

I see the final time 96 +/-

:5: RELOAD (8-1), :9: BAD DEBT (6-1) and :10: HAMPSTEAD HEALTH (20-1) are each improving in my projected current form.

The :9: and :10: are both running faster at the half than I prefer.

I show the :10: as the fastest of all the entries but, it's final time is too fast for this group and see him fading unable to hold on to the wire.

The :9: and :11: both show some back class. Possible but, …

I like :5: 's projected pace for the half and hope it will carry to the wire passing tiring horses.

I'm betting :5: RELOAD to win or pass depending on the odds and how he looks in the warm up.

[whodoyoulike]

5 Reload (4.80) .................. 11.60 ........... 6.60 ......... 4.60
1 Mr. Online (5.40) .................. .................... 6.80 ......... 4.80
6 Salto (IRE) (6.30) .................................................. ...... 4.60
2 Unbridled Ocean

$2.00 exacta (5 - 1) $70.80
$1.00 tri (5-1-6) $155.60

recap per chart:

RELOAD stalked the pace, rallied along the rail to gain a slim lead inside the eighth pole, then was all out to prevail. MR. ONLINE set the pace along the inside, came out entering the stretch leaving room for RELOAD, then responded when headed by that rival inside the eighth pole and continued on gamely while being edged to the wire. SALTO (IRE) reserved racing along the inside, eased out in the stretch and finished willingly to be up for the show. UNBRIDLED OCEAN unhurried early, saved ground throughout and closed with a belated rally.

There were 4 of 48 selecting the winner excluding 2 on the scratched horse.