"MEAL TICKET", a new "Spot-Play" (test drive-beta)

[LottaKash]

I have spent most of the "winter season" away from the nags....It isn't my time of year on most days ...My records bear this out year in and year out....So with more time on my hands, I have been reviewing my betting records, and have been doing some homework on a few angles that show good promise, as well as a new "spot play method" that I am putting the finishing touches on, as of right now.....

I call this new method the "MEAL TICKET"....As it shows enough of promise this early on, that if one understands the concept behind it thoroughly enough, and is careful to follow the rules at least to the "spirit" of the method, and maybe not necessarily the "full letter of the laws" plays, one could most likely do very well in the long run using the method...

I really don't want to give away too, too much as of yet, but know this, the whole handicapping premise(s) is based and anchored mainly on the "MONEY BOX", and more importantly the "SUPER MONEY BOX"....Of course the MBX isn't a panacea or an easy way, but only a way of identifying, to start with, live horses that just plain, "Like To Win"...So when you have a good SMBX number to start with, and the handicapping suggests that the rules of the method are mostly adhered to, then you will be betting on very "LIVE" horses....I will try to demonstrate this, as I go along...(haha)...How long, I dunno really, but I will try to be diligent in my ongoing posts, for as long as mine or anyone else's interest may last...

In Nov. 13, I had to drain my betting account in order to take a cruise (a cheap one this year)....I had left only $55 in my ExpressBet acct (and then only $53)...So, yesterday, I decided to begin the BETA, and I started out with $53.00...I didn't want to wait too long to begin posting this, but since I was off to a nice start yesterday, I decided to begin posting the "test drive" today....Of course this a past post, but, whenever I post something it will be the truth, as I am way past Redboarding for vanity's sake....I win on a regular basis regardless so there is no need for vanity here...

This is strictly for FAN Interest, as I enjoy watching others here at PA"s Dark Side of Racing, both win and lose....After 50 some odd years of playing I still love this game and the continual challenge of it all....that's all...That it really the reason for all of this...
========================================

I am starting out making $4.00 plays both to WP and W, and $1 & $2 exotic plays....As the bankroll, hopefully grows, I will up the ante when it right to do so...

Also, I will try to make a running diary on the plays as well, as this is what I generally do anyway when the betting-day is done...


P.S. I will try when there is enough time to post my early considerations early enough in the day ahead of time....But, me I am an up to the minute handicapper on most days, and most times I do not know what I will wager on way ahead of time...When I prescreen the races each day, I usually use post-it notes on my desktop, before the race or the bet even comes up, so sometimes my picks will be in the shortcut version from the posit-it notes....


Day 2 starts with $62.00 in the bank....
http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY1MT021814st53fIn62_zps70d2841d.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY1MT021814st53fIn62_zps70d2841d.png.html)

[mrroyboy]

Thank you John
I am thanking you before I even read this. That's how grateful I am to see you writing again. For those of you that are new, John's posts are excellent. Hope he does more.
John if you need help checking results etc you know where to find me. :)

[LottaKash]

Thanx Roy, no help needed tho, thx for askin...:jump:

[Mystic]

Looking forward to more :)

[LottaKash]

Learned a few more things doing this BETA tonite...As is it is not a complete "spot-play" yet, learning new "rules" as I go....Still, it is good enough, now, to stand on it's own, but I have thought that many times before this.....HAHA !.
Could've been a much more rewarding nite tho, but I am still sorting things out a bit...
Nothing replaces "solid handicapping", Nothing....So, that being said, I am learning day by day to strike balance a solid looking horse, without a superior money box, with the SMBX horse(s)....
It will get better, I promise...:cool:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY2MT021914ST62FIN61_zps95b78386.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY2MT021914ST62FIN61_zps95b78386.png.html)

[LottaKash]

SUCH IS THE DAY OF A "GRINDER"...
http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY3MT022014ST61FIN57_zpsa30aa959.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY3MT022014ST61FIN57_zpsa30aa959.png.html)

[LottaKash]

ok..

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY4MTKTS022114ST57FIN53_zps67031c11.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY4MTKTS022114ST57FIN53_zps67031c11.png.html)

[LottaKash]

OK...

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY5MTKTS022214ST53FIN57_zps8c86c396.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY5MTKTS022214ST53FIN57_zps8c86c396.png.html)

[LottaKash]

Another day that that should have turned out better, as there were other opportunites to consider, and perhaps should have pulled the trigger on....:D

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY6MTKTS022314ST57FIN55_zps6e817180.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY6MTKTS022314ST57FIN55_zps6e817180.png.html)

[mrroyboy]

Very good John. Keep us posted as to your qualifying rules.

[LottaKash]

X



http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY7MT022414ST55FIN51_zps05e212e9.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY7MT022414ST55FIN51_zps05e212e9.png.html)

[LottaKash]

X.:jump:


http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/NOBETS-1-MTKTS_zps50df2fdc.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/NOBETS-1-MTKTS_zps50df2fdc.png.html)

[LottaKash]

So I make 2-Plays and they both should've been kashed, and I lose $4bucks...!:D


http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY8AFTSESS022614ST51FIN47_zps33ea9644.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY8AFTSESS022614ST51FIN47_zps33ea9644.png.html)

[LottaKash]

DAY 8 CONTINUES, AND I REALLY MEAN IT...haha..:jump:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY9EVESESS022614ST51FIN53_zps0a85ccb0.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY9EVESESS022614ST51FIN53_zps0a85ccb0.png.html)

[LottaKash]

Last week I bet this horse and he didn't disappoint but he lost the race finishishg with a flourish, sandwiched between the winner and the place horse, so tight too, missing by 1/2L....at 7/1...

So I mark this guy down on my watch list....Now here is where the fun continues for the day/nite?....

I did the card for Miami Valley (new track), and found Buddy Lou was in tonite, and I couldn't wait for the race to come up....Only thing, I was so busy doing Pompano, and Dover as well as screening tom'w's races, I "PLUMB FORGOT" about Miami....
Granted the card at Miami was nothing near to my liking, so I didn't spend much continuous time there.....Senior moment ?....hahah ! I just plain forgot...yeesh.

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/IMG_1710_zps0b079b9d.jpg (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/IMG_1710_zps0b079b9d.jpg.html)

And, here is the outcome...Oh chit !....

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/BUDDYLOULAMENT_zps9e2de9c0.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/BUDDYLOULAMENT_zps9e2de9c0.png.html)

What a silly day....I am not discouraged tho, as I know these days occur from
time to time....They always do...

There is more, and my handicapping is quite sound, so the future will take this thread and the bankroll higher...I am sure of this...haha!...As long as the races keep rolling along, it will be so...:cool: "BUT WHEN DAMMIT"..:D

Still, it could've been a much nicer outcome today....Up $2 bucks tho...:jump:

[imofe]

Don't be too hard on yourself. These things happen. Saturday I was playing Woodbine and had a big interest in I Scoot Sam in the 7th. I was watching the odds drift between 5-10 to 1 with about five minutes to post when a friend that I have not seen in a long time came in. We start talking about something and before I knew it, the horses were off. We all know the end to this story, or at least it seems to happen more often than not. $ 16.8

[LottaKash]

Don't be too hard on yourself. These things happen. Saturday I was playing Woodbine and had a big interest in I Scoot Sam in the 7th. I was watching the odds drift between 5-10 to 1 with about five minutes to post when a friend that I have not seen in a long time came in. We start talking about something and before I knew it, the horses were off. We all know the end to this story, or at least it seems to happen more often than not. $ 16.8

IMOFE...Actually, I am not very hard on myself at all....I wasn't trying to convey that at all...

I was just being "dramatic" as is in telling a story, as in a day in the life of a handicapper....And, how silly some days are for us..

Heck, I've been at this for over 50 years, and actually, I am disappointed that anyone may think that I am crying the blues....I've seen and done too much for this late in my handicapping life....Heck, I remember when hundred(s) of dollar wagers were the norm for a spell in my life....

Still, whether it is $2 or $200 it is all relative all the same....And so it is with this also....This counts just as much for me at this level as it did when the bets were so much bigger....

In reality, when my BR is in the shape that I like it to be, $20, 30 & 40 dollars bets are my "cup of tea"....I have been in the black for the past 7-years or so, with yearly profits ranging from $2,500 to only $700, but it is still fun for me, and I never have to go to the bank, that's all...

Thanks all the same for the words of consolation tho...It matters...:ThmbUp:

P.S. iomfe, notice in the post before this, and you will see in the photo that my Horses to Watch list shows "I SCOOT SAM" as well....He ran his last 1/4 in 25.2, and hasn't been seen since....Usually horses in that low of price, will usually suffer something or other from a QT as quick as that one....Even the best ones may take a week off, off of a split like that...

10-4

[LottaKash]

:jump:...

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY9MTKTS022714ST53FIN62_zps3e13dd4c.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY9MTKTS022714ST53FIN62_zps3e13dd4c.png.html)

[LottaKash]

Could've been better, and could've been worse...:cool:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY10MT022814st62fin66_zps8bcc9a13.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY10MT022814st62fin66_zps8bcc9a13.png.html)

[LottaKash]

:( ......................:p


http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY22MT030114ST66FIN61_zps81e6a93a.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY22MT030114ST66FIN61_zps81e6a93a.png.html)

[am1947]

LK

FYI , That "ez lead" you refer to for K-Lees Shakenbake on 03/01 R#5 would qualify as a Mark Goldie BPQ qtr.

AM

[LottaKash]

LK

FYI , That "ez lead" you refer to for K-Lees Shakenbake on 03/01 R#5 would qualify as a Mark Goldie BPQ qtr.

AM

AM, I am not sure why or what you are seeing here....I remember the BPQ thing, and that was definitely good food for thought thing, but imo, that ain't it for me here in this case....Could you refresh my memory...Not trying to pick a fight, but I sure would like your take on this, the BPQ factor...

I know I never finished my "PIP" thing, and I apologize to everyone for not doing so, but for me, K LEES SHAkENBAKE had things pretty much his own way early on in that mile, but the final segment of his PIP is what did him in,imo.....His big mistake was changing his style of racing, from the role of closer to a front runner, I believe....Still with the young lightly raced ones there has to come a time when they crack down further in order to get him the experience that he needs to get him where he may be meant to be, or to find maybe once and for all how good he can "really" go early in his miles...

In this case, the PIP was a 6/023=, and is taken from the splits of 26.3 56.0 124.1 151.0....So you can see that the "back-end" of the mile was the most taxing part of the race...Meaning anytime the PIP shows a "3", especially preceded by a "2 or another 3", well, that is more than reason enough to take notice...And in this case I truly believe that, after his new adventure on the front end, he wasn't capable of that big of a go late in this race....I see this all the time with the young ones...

As a matter of fact, this horse proved that he can really motor off of extremely fast late pace fractions....As, in his last race, after he could only go in 30 seconds, he then rattled off splits of 26.3 27.3 & 26.2 "back to back", and his last 3/4's were run in 120.1 !!!!!....So it wasn't that he can't go fast, but imo, he is a horse that probably can't go fast early and win....Not many horses are capable of surviving those splits and live to tell about it, only the best ones can do that....And, off of those back end fractions in his previous race, I project him to be a solid "A-rated" horse, real soon too,,...Higher than that, we will see ?..

Sometimes, I have found, when a horse goes that quick, as in his previous race with those hairball splits, a horse may "bounce" a wee bit as a result....And, often enough it will show & tell in the following race....For instance a horse may do exactly what Shakeandbake did last nite, and they will change his style, thus giving him an excuse for a loss, or they will scratch him out the following week probably due to lameness whether a big or small amount, or will change tracks for some easier racing until healed up enough to return.....In this case he raced, and he didn't break, which often happens when horses "overpace" in their previous race, but, "they did" try him on the engine, maybe to keep up appearance, and/or to hold the good form enough, til next race....I think that is the case here, simply put, imo..

Bottom line for me, next week, I don't think that any of these will beat him next outing...

He is at the top of my list of "NOW" horses....

[am1947]

LK

BPQ was a markgoldie concept of the Q1 time divided by the final time.
Race 2(23.85%), Race 4 (23.91%), and Race 5(23.96%) for 3/1/14 M1 were BPQ's as all were under the 23.98% for that nite.
(minus Race 10 which was a 1 1/16 mile) .

That Sat. nites avg was 24.44% - .46% = 23.98% (.46 std dev.for M1)

The thought was when a horse goes to fast in that first QTR compared to the final time of that race then they could be excused for failing in the stretch. Thus a Breaking Point Quarter. Confirmed pullers were not to be excused.

So my point was that IMO I would excuse K LEES SHAkENBAKE lack of punch in the stretch as being related to a BPQ.

I searched for the original thread but could not find it. Hopefully someone else can.

Later
AM

[am1947]

LK

found this in my archieves

From Markgoldie"
At any rate, this phenomenon led me to coin a phrase which I termed a "breaking point" first quarter. The definition of a breaking-point quarter is a first quarter mile that is so fast that it is nearly impossible for a horse to "catch his breath" later in the race, no matter how slow the subsequent fractions, such that he will be able to show a representative finish. This is caused by an "oxygen debt" that cannot be rated out of the horse's system. (It also led me to coin a sort of term for this, which I dubbed loosely "dead man walking" or in this case, more properly, "dead horse racing." By this I meant that after the breaking-point quarter (or BPQ), the horse is apparently blissfully racing on the front end and the driver is expecting a good outcome, but unknown to him, and often the observers of the race, is that a time bomb will shortly explode in the form of a sudden and emphatic collapse of the animal. This timebomb was set in the first quarter and there is nothing that can stop it from exploding, with devastating effect to the horse in question.
Now. Some general statements about BPQ's: First, and possibly most importantly, a horse may be completely excused for a dismal overall performance IF he has suffered a BPQ. That is, these horses can be beaten 10 or 15 lengths in the race, but are a real threat to come back and win in their next event. Hence, wagering value. Second, I wish that races were timed in 1/8 increments instead of the usual 1/4 mile increments because I believe that there exists a "breaking point eighth" (BPE) as well as a BPQ. However, since they are not, we must rely on visual evidence to make such determinations. What we are looking for is somewhat of a rarity, but one which does recur with enough regularity that it pays to identify it. This situation is where a ferocious battle for the lead begins with the word "go" but is settled by the first 1/8 or shortly thereafter. At this point a file order is settled and the leader can begin to rate his horse. Since he has nearly an eighth of a mile to slow the animal down, the posted quarter-mile time may not look unusually fast. For example, let's consider a :28 first quarter. There is a vast difference between such a quarter that is rated :14, :14 and one that is rated :13.1, :14.4. The difference is such that the evenly rated :28 quarter may not result in a BPQ for the horse accomplishing it, but the :13.1 first eighth in the latter example may be a BPE from which the horse cannot regain his breath. Thirdly, a BPQ may actually prove theraputic to some horses in that it provides a good "tightner" for an upcoming race. What you want to avoid, however, is betting into a BPQ horse who was not race-tight when suffering it. For ex., horses in their first or second race off a layoff. In these cases, the BPQ may cause a "bounce" and the horse will race worse upon return. Fourthly, any angle which points out good fitness is most potent when the horse in question has apparently achieved a new and improved fitness level OR the horse in question had a unknown form which is now explained by the good effort following a BPQ. Examples of the latter are ship-in horses on which we may not have a good line; lightly-raced and/or "green" horses; horses who are getting over a breaking problem (which is a potent positive angle on its own, but when combined with a good BPQ effort may be outstanding); horses who have changed barns and whose form is therefore basically a mystery since we do not know for sure how the horse will perform in new hands; and even some horses who are switching drivers (provided that a single driver has been racing the horse for an extended period).
To sum up, we are seeking value in one of two ways: (1) totally excusing a poor overall effort in the face of a BPQ and (2) Getting extreme value from horses who have encountered a BPQ and still put in a representative overall
performance.
With this theoretical understanding of what we are looking for and why, the next step is the practical application, the nuts and bolts, so to speak. In other words, how do we identify BPQ's?
Clearly, each class must have a different BPQ, since for example, a :27 first quarter may be routine in some classes and a brutal BPQ in others. For this reason, we need a more universal way of determining a class-related BPQ and the way we do this is to use the first quarter as a percentage of the overall race time. The beauty of this is that it immediately adjusts for the class factor and for the overall speed variant for the track on a given card because even though the track may be very fast or very slow, the PERCENTAGES should remain constant.
To calculate the percentage of the overall race of the first quarter, break both down into fifths of a second and divide the fifths for the full race in to the fifths of the first quarter. Example: First quarter :28.1, overall race time 1:56.1. First quarter fifths are 28 x 5 +1 or 141. Full-mile fifths are (60+56) x 5 +1, or 116 x 5 +1 = 581. Divide 141 by 581 = 24.26%.
Now for the harder part. How do we determine what constitutes a BPQ? There are different ways to go about this but here's the simplest and as you work with these numbers, you may develop different ways to fine tune the process: Take a sampling of the first quarter percentages for 200 races at the track in question. Assume that roughly 10% of all races will feature a BPQ. This means that the lowest 20 first-Q percentages are likely BPQ's. Take the top end of that range and begin by assuming that anything under this percentage number is a BPQ. So let's say you find that the 20th lowest first Q percentage was 23.70%. This is a good place to start.
Next, test the percentage in the following way: First, horses who throw a first Q at or below the standard should show a STRONG negative effect to their overall effort, particularly in light of their closing odds. For ex., if a 50-1 horse expires following a BPQ, we should not be very surprised since at those odds he would probably have expired whatever the fractions. But when favorites or heavily-backed contenders are falling back following such quarters, we probably are safe in concluding that the standard is okay. Next, look at performances following the BPQ effort. If the horses are rebounding significantly, this is also evidence that the BPQ standard is good, since it indicates in general that the demanding first Q alone was responsible for the poorer-than-usual finish. (Of course, make sure that in the subsequent race, the horse was not AGAIN caught up in a BPQ). As you continue to use first-Q percentages, you may fine tune the % which you believe represents a BPQ standard for the track.
Once you have a workable standard, you need to check the first-Q track bias for each given race card. As I said earlier, this can fluctuate do to wind and other track conditions. To track it, you keep a set of the first Q percentages on each card. Often, you will find an abnormal distribution which may show more fast percentages or more slow percentages. These abnormalities can be confirmed by wind conditions and there are ways to do this without having the weather report. On mile tracks, for example, the first quarter is raced more or less in the same direction, which makes potential wind effects more potent. On 5/8 and 1/2 mile tracks, a smaller portion of the first quarter is raced in the same direction, which makes skewing effects due to wind a bit less of a problem. However, a strong enough wind can affect the first Q on any size track. On mile and 1/2 mile tracks, a wind-aided fast first Q will be followed by a FAST last Q as well. However, on 5/8 tracks, a wind-aided first Q will be followed by a SLOW last Q. This is due to the different configurations of such tracks. Look for these subsequent last quarter numbers on the race charts to confirm the wind aided or hindered first Q percentage.
At any rate, when we find an abnormal distribution of first Q percentages, we should alter our normal standard to reflect the abnormality. The easiest way to do this is to apply the normal deviation between the average first Q percentage and the normal BPQ percentage to the skewed average of the abnormal card. Example: Normal average first Q percentage 24.2%. Normal BPQ % is 23.7%. Normal difference .50%. Skewed average % might be 23.90%, let's say, and therfore, an adjusted BPQ would be 23.90 - .50 or 23.40%. So on this particular card, we would use 23.4% as a BPQ barrier. Same would hold true if the daily first Q percent was HIGHER than normal.
Now that we have established a way to determine a BPQ for an individual track and a way to adjust this BPQ percentage to given card conditions, we are ready to use the information to our advantage. Key to this is determining what the public thinks of a horse's prospects. The best way to assess this is by odds' position. Odds position tells us where the public thinks the horses should finish in a race- for ex., the favorite, by definition, is "expected" to win the race, the second choice is "expected" to finish second, the third favorite, is "expected" to finish third and so on.
Here's a stat that you can take straight to the bank: All horses who are first at the quarter in a BPQ time AND who finsh the race no worse than one (1) position WORSE than the public expected, will universally show a substantially positive ROI when bet to win in their upcoming event.
Now. I'm not a win bettor, as I have mentioned numerous times on this forum. However, this positive information is good for gimmick wagering as well as straight betting.
I know there are very few guys on here interested to read and absorb this, but hopefully some, like Lotta Kash will. I'm getting tired of typing right now, but if there are specific questions relating to this post, I'll get around to answering them. Just fire away.
Just got back on to the thread. Been a little busy. To answer some questions. I prefer 5/8 mile tracks to play, although I think that BPQ theory works well on most mile tracks as well with the possible exceptions of the Canadian large ovals and BMLP. I like BMLP for other handicapping considerations since I find that it is the best track for sheer power numbers that I have found. I can't play Canadian tracks because my ADW doesn't handle them and I get a very large rebate where I play, so my comments about handicapping speed there may not be correct, just my impression. it would take a specialist to answer that for sure.

One thing I forgot to mention in my earlier posts is to ignore consistent runaway horses that routinely post what would be considered BPQ's. These horses are used to this and it proves nothing about their current form, so multiple BPQ animals are off my list.

Been a lot of nice comments about my posts, but let's not get overly excited. This is just a small part of what you need for success in the game, which as we know is brutally difficult. Still, it may help some handicappers. I hope so.
AM

[imofe]

Unfortunately, the horse will not qualify based on this.

All horses who are first at the quarter in a BPQ time AND who finsh the race no worse than one (1) position WORSE than the public expected, will universally show a substantially positive ROI when bet to win in their upcoming event.

[LottaKash]

Unfortunately, the horse will not qualify based on this.

All horses who are first at the quarter in a BPQ time AND who finsh the race no worse than one (1) position WORSE than the public expected, will universally show a substantially positive ROI when bet to win in their upcoming event.

You are correct imofe....That is what I thought too....Still AM1947 had the right idea, and that is what matters most, imo....That we are always thinking and analyzing the pace of each and every race, in the ongoing search for tidbits that may lead to tomorrow's scores...:jump:

[LottaKash]

LK

found this in my archieves

From Markgoldie"

........Been a lot of nice comments about my posts, but let's not get overly excited. This is just a small part of what you need for success in the game, which as we know is brutally difficult. Still, it may help some handicappers. I hope so.
AM

AM thx so much for reviving this archived post....

I had it on my old HD, that is, until my motherboard gave up early in 2013...I still have the HD and all of it contents intact, I just haven't gotten around to retrieving it yet....Hey, it' only been a year..haha...

But back to MARKGOLDIES "BPQ"....MG, gave me much to think about especially the BPQ aspect of assessing some pace scenarios...After I adopted it, I had been using the BPQ with modest success for a good while, but it became to tedious for me, what with me being strictly a P&P handicapper, and with so many tracks to screen each day....

But the BPQ aspect of pace was an inspiration to me, and so much so and that is how I came to invent the "PIPs"...Being the P&P guy, I was looking for ways to shortcut the math part of handicapping, and to create something that was just as effective, but simpler and quicker and easier to do....Thus the PIPs were born, and shortly thereafter I more or less abandoned the BPW formula....It was just killing my time, and created a distraction to me....But, in the end I think that it was a very good trade, even tho perhaps some accuracy may have been a l mite lost...Still, when I see a certain PIP pattern I will still do the BPQ to follow up on it....Just not on a grand scale as before tho...The PIPs seem to do nicely in most cases...

But, back to Markgoldie....You know, I really miss his postings....And, I often wonder what had become of him since his last posts...He was a very brightminded man, and he would share a laugh with you, as I believe that he didn't take himself as seriously as some of his also very intelligent like minded peers....I really admire that in a person,very....

Below I am going to offer a graphic....This matrix is a conglomeration of acronyms, that explain just about everything that I know to be of importance to the winning and losing of horseraces....From it I have created my own language, and if I explained in detail, the meaning and significance of each and every acronym, we could then have a dialogue using this language, without having to resort to square one explanations of things....I often daydream about getting these glyphs into a program....I truly believe it would be sumpin'...:jump: But I doubt that will ever happen, haha...

Still, the main reason that I am posting this graphic is to show you how much I thought of the BPQ aspect of pace-assessment....is all...

note: this chart is more than 2-years old, and has been revamped and revised since, but it is on that locked up HD...haha...

Look in the PACE-PATTERNS column and you will see BPQ...that's it...

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/LOOPHOLES_MAINreducedforPatterns_01-1.jpg (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/LOOPHOLES_MAINreducedforPatterns_01-1.jpg.html)

Thx again AM...:ThmbUp:

Best,
Johnny U.

[LottaKash]

:sleeping: ...................


http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/dayoff030214nobetsfin61_zpsd287e422.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/dayoff030214nobetsfin61_zpsd287e422.png.html)

[am1947]

LK & IMFOE,

Agree on your MG assessment LK ! He always presented great food for thought.

IMFOE my intent was to point out the value of that fast 1st Qtr and not
whether the horse should be a playback based upon that particular race.
You are correct about the 1 position worse then the public expected.
Because that horse got such an "ez lead" I was just trying to point out to
LK that is was indeed a very quick 1st QTR and a possible reason for the stretch falter.

LK I love your chart!
Question I have is that it almost looks like the additives for increasing mpg's for gasoline ....LOL
IMO it shows your creativity and determination.

Have a great and prosperous day,
AM

[LottaKash]

LK & IMFOE,
LK I love your chart!
Question I have is that it almost looks like the additives for increasing mpg's for gasoline ....LOL


Un-oh !...You found me out....I saw that in an old gas-station once...I knew it would come in handy one day...:jump:

[mrroyboy]

John that is a very good horse. You made a good bet. probably a play next out unless he gets pounded to 3-5 or whatever.

[LottaKash]

John that is a very good horse. You made a good bet. probably a play next out unless he gets pounded to 3-5 or whatever.

I agree Roy, he is a "now" horse, but he is a "no big secret" horse either, haha....I always have a problem with the "now" horses, usually they are overbet for a good while, too...We will see, he has much late pace-ability tho..

best,
Johnny U.

[imofe]

Not trying to take this thread off task, so let me know if I am LK.

Mopey Corey just won at Woodbine in the 5th at 5-1. I have this horse as a 23.6 in the last race as per Mark's BPQ topic, and the horse outran the odds last time. Not sure what the breaking point would be at Woodbine, but the 1st quarter seems fast in relation to the final time.

[LottaKash]

Not trying to take this thread off task, so let me know if I am LK.

Mopey Corey just won at Woodbine in the 5th at 5-1. I have this horse as a 23.6 in the last race as per Mark's BPQ topic, and the horse outran the odds last time. Not sure what the breaking point would be at Woodbine, but the 1st quarter seems fast in relation to the final time.

Imofe, I just got to look at this....Was busy doing home repairs all day....

After reading you post, and then turning to the Replays for Wdb tonite, I have to agree with your take on MopeyCorey....

Not sure about the Wdb breaking point pars either, as I don't bother doing them anymore...

But, if you do replays of Wdb, and you back to MC's 2d race back, that was the "eye opener".... He woke up in that race and went in 25.2 in the opening panel....After that race I marked him down on my watch list....

But even more important in the 25.2 1st quarter was the preceding opening 1/8th (which only Wdb and Mhk show locked in on screen vs. other tracks, when timing the races live) which was 12.2....!!!!...That was the tipoff for me....the 12.2 opening 1/8th....Nasty business, imo..

I wish the WEG circuit tracks would reinstate the trackus charts & timing again....They always showed the opening 1/8ths in their charts (but no longer tho).....I miss the dancing onscreen chicklets during the race as well......I wish all the track would use the trakus type of timings and the chicklets...They help you stay tuned with "ALL" the horses the whole way round...

As I said before, I don't do BPQ's that much any longer, but, what I do use is the Trackmaster's "Pace Past Perfomances"....For only minor extra cost, you get numbers that will give much greater insight into the pace of any race....

I would talk more about it, the pace PP's, but if you didn't subscribe to them, I would always try to be explaining my take on things....But if you or anyone else would sign up for them, I would, via PM, be more than willing to give you some excellent new things to think about....

As for MC, again, I missed that one big time.....He was on my watch list, and it was a perfect spot and nite for his style of running....After watching the replays, I noticed that the first 4-races were all wire to wire jobs, and he was in the 5th.... MC filled the bill and had nor real competition in that regard, plus he was a "+5" SMBX horse to boot.....Not seeing, and in a position to play that race, really pissed me off a bit....:( ....Races of that ilk are at the heart of this thread....geez...

[LottaKash]

:( .....


http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAYOFFMT030314_zpsb1f9eaa5.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAYOFFMT030314_zpsb1f9eaa5.png.html)

[am1947]

Sir

Do not follow Wdb much but these are the last numbers I found for
Wdb Moh. They are a few yrs old as I saved them when Ray post
them awhile ago.

Track Races. AveQ1%.. StdDev.. AveTime... BPQ
WDB.. 702... 23.86%... 0.52% .... 114.8 ... 23.34%
MOH. 210... 24.04%... 0.46%..... 115.2.... 23.58%

AM

[mrroyboy]

Interesting stuff John. Would love to know more about how you are using the PacePP's. I know you are updating PIPs so love to read more

[Ray2000]

For those not familiar with the BNQ thread it's here

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64718


Don't mean to side track your thread LK, :)

[LottaKash]

Don't mean to side track your thread LK, :)

No problem "at all", Ray....Everything is relevant, anytime, for me at least...In fact I am glad that you found that lost "to me" thread....I enjoyed rereading it again...thx for re-posting it...

We, at the "darkside" of racing, have to take whatever we can, whenever we can, as there are so few of us here, where it is bleek, and often some very relevant points are lost due to our reluctance to cover a point or subject as they may come up, simply by courteously not wanting to "hijack" a thread, and rather not create another thread for it.....Some ideas and opinions often get lost that way, imo...

As I said previously, I was much influenced by that particular thread, and that very thread is what inspired me to resurrect and modify my original PIPs....It gave me so much to think about when trying to find quick, easy, and simple ways to analyze the pace of of a race...Being a P&P guy and all...
============================================
This passage in one of MG's posts got me to thinking much....:

Excessive pace-speed can compromise a horse's chances at almost any time in the mile. The question becomes: what is hidden and what isn't?

Race #1: :27.0, :56.4, 1:26.2, 1:56.0.... PIP= 7/000 (pip inserted after the fact)

Race #2 :27.4, :56.4, 1:26.2, 1:56.0......PIP= 8/100 (ditto)

So remember, nothing "works" in handicapping unless the other bettors overlook it. This is the potential beauty of BPQ's, and as I said in an earlier post, the BPE (breaking-point eighth) is even better hidden.(MG)

The power of using PIPs helps in this regard, the "hidden" or "almost hidden" part...JJU
=============================

Btw, the fire is slowly being rekindled in me to "re-post" my PIPs thing, as it is times such as these that inspire that sort of thing in me ....Soon..:rolleyes: ....I apologize tho, as it stood, it was an incomplete work...sorry..

[mrroyboy]

Btw, the fire is slowly being rekindled in me to "re-post" my PIPs thing, as it is times such as these that inspire that sort of thing in me ....Soon.. ....I apologize tho, as it stood, it was an incomplete work...sorry

Yes John Post away.

[imofe]

No problem "at all", Ray....Everything is relevant, anytime, for me at least...In fact I am glad that you found that lost "to me" thread....I enjoyed rereading it again...thx for re-posting it...

We, at the "darkside" of racing, have to take whatever we can, whenever we can, as there are so few of us here, where it is bleek, and often some very relevant points are lost due to our reluctance to cover a point or subject as they may come up, simply by courteously not wanting to "hijack" a thread, and rather not create another thread for it.....Some ideas and opinions often get lost that way, imo...

As I said previously, I was much influenced by that particular thread, and that very thread is what inspired me to resurrect and modify my original PIPs....It gave me so much to think about when trying to find quick, easy, and simple ways to analyze the pace of of a race...Being a P&P guy and all...
============================================
This passage in one of MG's posts got me to thinking much....:

Excessive pace-speed can compromise a horse's chances at almost any time in the mile. The question becomes: what is hidden and what isn't?

Race #1: :27.0, :56.4, 1:26.2, 1:56.0.... PIP= 7/000 (pip inserted after the fact)

Race #2 :27.4, :56.4, 1:26.2, 1:56.0......PIP= 8/100 (ditto)

So remember, nothing "works" in handicapping unless the other bettors overlook it. This is the potential beauty of BPQ's, and as I said in an earlier post, the BPE (breaking-point eighth) is even better hidden.(MG)

The power of using PIPs helps in this regard, the "hidden" or "almost hidden" part...JJU
=============================

Btw, the fire is slowly being rekindled in me to "re-post" my PIPs thing, as it is times such as these that inspire that sort of thing in me ....Soon..:rolleyes: ....I apologize tho, as it stood, it was an incomplete work...sorry..

I think some of the power of the BPQ is if the horse subsequently gets covered up and appears empty in the lane in what looks like a perfect trip. I remember this horse, the capper says to himself. He could not go by in the lane with that 2 hole trip. He forgets or does not calculate how stressful that 1st quarter was. Just sees no late pace.

[imofe]

Sir

Do not follow Wdb much but these are the last numbers I found for
Wdb Moh. They are a few yrs old as I saved them when Ray post
them awhile ago.

Track Races. AveQ1%.. StdDev.. AveTime... BPQ
WDB.. 702... 23.86%... 0.52% .... 114.8 ... 23.34%
MOH. 210... 24.04%... 0.46%..... 115.2.... 23.58%

AM

Thanks AM. It looks like Woodbine is quite fast early ( which I think most of us suspect) and we should demand a pretty low BPQ percentage for playbacks.

[LottaKash]

:sleeping: .....................................:sleeping:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAYOFFMT030414FIN61_zps7967e0cb.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAYOFFMT030414FIN61_zps7967e0cb.png.html)

[mrroyboy]

John
I didn't know you knew about Randy Giles too. I am a big fan of his pace theories at least for T-breds. Interested to know how you apply them to Harness Racing.
In his book he talks about his data base. That section alone is worth the price of his book.
Thanks John

[LottaKash]

John
I didn't know you knew about Randy Giles too. I am a big fan of his pace theories at least for T-breds. Interested to know how you apply them to Harness Racing.
In his book he talks about his data base. That section alone is worth the price of his book.
Thanks John

Hey Roy, actually I have a rather healthy library for all species of hoss'...

In reality tho, other than gaining a better knowledge base on how horse racing ticks, I never got as much out of many of those books as some of the other readers may have from many of them....Other than a good grounding from Al Stanley on what live running lines consist of, combined with some very useful angles that I still use to this day , most of the other handicapping books were good, in that they gave me insight to how the game works, but that was all it did for me....I am not system player at all, and most of those books touted things of that sort....On the other hand tho, three of my favorite books have all to do with the "pace aspect of racing"....My favorites are the aforementioned Randy Giles' book "Extreme Pace Handicapping"....& "Pace makes the Race" from the recently deceased Ton Hambleton, and his cohort Dick Schmidt....and Huey Mahl's book "The Race is Pace"....

Like it or not, I am a "Pace Pattern" handicapper....I know final time is important, and so are Speed Ratings, but in reality, most of the time I just use my pace numbers, which really explains things such as FT & SR, only much better, imo...

One of the most important things that I gleened from Randy Giles way of thinking was from "Pace & Race Shapes" models...

Below is a glimpse of how one may gain a better insight from a Pace Perspective....(notice PIPs = "Pace in Perspective") by learning, and the use of a good understanding of how races are actually run, pacewise, and the impact they may have in a horses next race..

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/PACESHAPESANDRACEQUALITY_zps3742f932.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/PACESHAPESANDRACEQUALITY_zps3742f932.png.html)

[mrroyboy]

Those are the best books on Pace for t-breds. Using them for harness racing needs adjustment
What I was talking about is from Extreme Pace handicapping. He took the best early rating and the best late rating from the horse's last 3 races. But then he did something unique. He didn't add them or average them etc he ranked them. Horses that were 1st in early pace and 3rd or 4th late are potential wire to wire winners. Horses with numbers like 7-1 7-2 etc were deep closers so if there was a lot of cheap early speed horses in the race he could mow them down in the stretch
I did very well using this for t-breds especially EP types in races with little pace pressure. There were very few that qualified. Anyway how would we apply that to Harness?

[LottaKash]

Those are the best books on Pace for t-breds. Using them for harness racing needs adjustment
What I was talking about is from Extreme Pace handicapping. He took the best early rating and the best late rating from the horse's last 3 races. But then he did something unique. He didn't add them or average them etc he ranked them. Horses that were 1st in early pace and 3rd or 4th late are potential wire to wire winners. Horses with numbers like 7-1 7-2 etc were deep closers so if there was a lot of cheap early speed horses in the race he could mow them down in the stretch
I did very well using this for t-breds especially EP types in races with little pace pressure. There were very few that qualified. Anyway how would we apply that to Harness?

Roy, why did you switch breeds ?....

As for your question about transitioning the t-bred pace stuff to harness, well that is a very broad question to address with just a line or two....I wouldn't even attempt to at this time Roy..

Imo, pace is pace, no matter the breed....As far as harness racing is concerned, only the sulky distorts the pace picture somewhat, but only "somewhat" imo...

I have always had a keen interest in the pace of any race, so what I am trying to do now is something like trying to marry Giles stuff with the PIPs, and possibly come up with a quick and ez formula that might enhance the PIPs....We will see....:jump:

I spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about this....Buy hey, I am never bored, "ever"....At 69 & 1/4 that is just fine by me..:cool:

[LottaKash]

LOST A BEANIE TONITE....:mad:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY12MT030514ST61FIN60_zpscfaa0df0.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY12MT030514ST61FIN60_zpscfaa0df0.png.html)

[LottaKash]

HORROR SHOW TONITE !!! :eek:

Also, note too, I was watching the Ex pays at DD for the 1st race, as it was
a race that I had 2 that l liked very much, and I just couldn't split em....Usually in a situation such as this one, I will often just box the two.....I have much successwith my picks doing it this way, when the payouts were well worth it...

Only thing tho....I bungled the whole bet, as I waited too long to get the wager
in and it was rejected, as I hadn't made the play correctly in all of my haste...

You guessed it....It won paid $44.00....It was sign of things to come tonite..haha..

Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy....lack of focus here....crap..haha...Start of STEAM!



http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY13030614ST60FIN44_zps29620e5c.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY13030614ST60FIN44_zps29620e5c.png.html)

[mrroyboy]

Hey John
You are right about pace being too complicated for one post. My main question is how do you determine the race shapes (fast fast, slow average) etc? Do you average the 4 quarters or do you use some kind of par time chart with pace figures for each class?
Like I said Randy Giles stuff is good but applying it to Harness Racing is tough.

[LottaKash]

Hey John
You are right about pace being too complicated for one post. My main question is how do you determine the race shapes (fast fast, slow average) etc? Do you average the 4 quarters or do you use some kind of par time chart with pace figures for each class?
Like I said Randy Giles stuff is good but applying it to Harness Racing is tough.

Roy, I will PM you with some ideas of mine....:jump:

[mrroyboy]

Thank you John as always.

[LottaKash]

When I first started this test drive, I was in a very awkward postition, right from the get go....




Thru the years, I had formulated a wagering plan that has allowed me to extract wagering profits on a steady and on going basis.....This plan is simply to maintain my bankroll with enough of money, regardless of the amount, to allow me a minimum of "25 bets"......The amount of the wagers is commensurate with the status of the current bankroll....That is simply it....Always the 25-bets minimum... (altho I really like it around 30-bets for comforts sake)....Sometimes I would have to draw it down so low that the BR would go down to $250, which equates to $10 bets...But $55 now, wow, this is some challenge to me...Still, no matter the amount bet, when I have the leeway of the 25-bets, I should do just as well as always, as it is all relative anyhow..




Now, when I first started this thread with the $53 bucks, I had the audacity to make $4 wagers, which really equates to only "10-bets" @$5 each.....Risky business




Since this adventures inception, I have left a whole lot of kash on the table, and this 10 bet limitation has, in psychological reality, left me very anxious, about this particular test drive....Or, to put it another way, not having enough of leeway in the amount of plays as I am normally used to on a steady basis, I have had to make some distressing decisions in regards to what plays I would make each nite....As in, what are the best and safest bets.....Or to put it another way, normally I maintain a BR of between $500 and $1,000...and this allows me to make anywhere from $20 to $40 wagers, and with a leeway of 25 bets, I never have a problem making as many as 10 or more plays a day....But, with a bankroll of only $53 and only a 10-12 max of plays in total, well, that is where all the pressure is coming from....I could go bust in one nite...Wheras, it would take me 2-1/2 days of nothing-winning, to do the same thing with a healthier bankroll...




If I make 10 plays, and they all lose (which in reality they could, and has occured from time to time), I would be out.....Now, my economic situation isn't such or so bad, that it isn't out of the question for me to to find a way to make and replenish my bankroll, but that would mean that I would have to do without some other amenities that I have grown accustomed to....So, not having this 25 -Bet leeway had severely curtailed my stlys as it currently was, and forced me to leave a lot of "gettable-kash" on the table as a result, which was due to me having to, with great anxiety, decide which bets to leave in and which to leave out.....And, most times you can't tell ahead of time which bets will win and which ones will lose....These past few weeks, I have missed a lot of really solid plays, paying really good odds, in lieu of making the plays of which I thought were more safe and secure to the BR....




The bottom line is, after the fiasco the other nite, which the BR couldn't in reality suport, I have decided to change the amount of the wager down to a more doable $2 Win bets, and $1 2way Exacta plays, and $1 Pick bets....The bankroll can now better support this amount and will allow a healthier 22-some odd bet leeway, will allow me now to get possibley some of that lost money I had been missing out on....Or to put it another way, if I had the luxury of making "all or most" of the other plays that I picked and didn't play since I started the thread, I believe that this BR would be much, much healthier by now..




These past few years, I have not been allergic to making riskier plays, as my handicapping is good enough that my more reliable wagers make up for the "Gamble" part of my handicapping....Hey, that is how you get to cruise ! .....




As it stands now I ain't cruisin nowhere.....




Still, this is an experimental work....And, I would feel much more comfortable with a headroom of a minimum of 30-bets...That is the immediate goal, and once up to $100-BR, I will up it back up to $4...




Every so many years, I always take stock and try to add some new things into my way of going, and that is simply what is going on here with this little adventure....But when you are changing and revamping your methodology, especially when it has worked so well for so long, it certainly keeps you on your toes and in a steady state of flux ....I love it all tho...I can't tell anyone how many times that I thought that I had learned all there is to know about winning and losing...haha...




So far I am making good strides towards creating a simple formula to make this "spot play method" go even better.....By paying special attention to only 1-factor in particular, and then adding into my mix of an already decent handicapping analysis, in actuality, in has really simplified my first screening process, all the more, and as a result it has allowed me to save a bunch of time and has allowed me to better tackle the other track or two that I normally wouldn't have the time to do....Being a P&P capper, n'all....




Still, 1-factor aside ( the SMBX), nothing replaces good handicapping, as there are numerous bogus illusions & perceptions to contend with when trying to use a 1-factor methodology as a guide....All I can do is add that 1-factor into my mix and hopefully it will only serve to bolster all the more, all the good things that I know and believe to be true and profit generating...




Stay tuned, if you like, it will only get better....sure...!

[LottaKash]

Could've been better could've been worse...

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY14MT030714ST44FIN45_zps3ca1fd4b.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY14MT030714ST44FIN45_zps3ca1fd4b.png.html)

[LottaKash]

Slim pickins tonite...Mostly a look and learn sort of a nite....Some interesting scenarios that I was interested in seeing the outcomes of.....It sure is a balancing act at times, what with all the newly "melded" info and all...

I am gradually learning to separate the strong plays and the ones that are a gamble but certainly worth looking for that pay big....I am guilty of not playing them again, and tonite was no different....haha...But, I am learning much in that regard, and I am in the process of "growing bigger cajones" in this regard...

Learning where to draw the lines, and when to back off, and when to resort to conventional handicapping as was always, are the main things that I am working on.....So far tho, this "spot method" is showing more and more promise as I learn more of the do's and don'ts, of and in some situations.....It is quite fascinating to be able to see things in a very "new-light" that it is shining on my handicapping in ways and in areas that I had taken for granted for so very long....It has created a fresh and new interest in my game....We all need that from time to time.....It will get better I am sure....

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY15MT030814ST45FIN45_zpsf29f4588.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY15MT030814ST45FIN45_zpsf29f4588.png.html)

[LottaKash]

EZ day today....Lots of late nite thinking tho...My mind is so busy these days...:jump:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/dayoff030914_zps28d63e7b.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/dayoff030914_zps28d63e7b.png.html)

[LottaKash]

Brain fog day....

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/dayoff03101445_zps929b64aa.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/dayoff03101445_zps929b64aa.png.html)

[mrroyboy]

As always John, I am here to help.

[LottaKash]

Things are looking good for the future of this endeavour....So far, haha.. :D


http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY16MT031114ST45FIN46_zpsfef7cc6a.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY16MT031114ST45FIN46_zpsfef7cc6a.png.html)

[Sea Biscuit]

Things are looking good for the future of this endeavour....So far, haha.. :D


http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY16MT031114ST45FIN46_zpsfef7cc6a.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY16MT031114ST45FIN46_zpsfef7cc6a.png.html)

Thats what I like about you John. You never claim to know 'everything'.

69 and still learning.

The process of learning should never end. I have always believed and said that.

Love reading your meal tickets plays and comments. Keep it up.:ThmbUp:

[LottaKash]

Thats what I like about you John. You never claim to know 'everything'.

69 and still learning.

The process of learning should never end. I have always believed and said that.

Love reading your meal tickets plays and comments. Keep it up.:ThmbUp:

Thx for the kind words Biscuit, and I am glad that you are enjoying this thread as well... The intent of this whole thing is simply to entertain anyone who may follows this, as in a continuing "Harness Racing Soap Opera"....I too, read each persons journey whether via their selections or by their efforts in attempting to findi the holy-grail, so to speak, and I enjoy all of it as well...

Still, there is much merit to what currently, I am, and why I am, doing this....It is simply to devise a quick and easy "spot play method" that may discover a gem or two, while not having to invest much money or in many races, in order to gain some financial reward in the process....It will come to fruition, I am sure of this as the evidence so far is there for the discovery and the taking....I am sorting it out still, is all...

This game can humble a person in a big hurry, especially when jumping to any conclusions based on any short term observations and perhaps illusions of any perceived truths that may not be true at all, and that is mostly why I haven't taken any big-liberties as of yet....But, they are "a-comin'" soon, I believe...

About 8 years ago, I had been a fairly sound handicapper, but when I included my "pace patterns" as the rock and foundation of that handicapping, it was then, that my handicapping really took off and into the zone of consistent profitability....Years before my Pace-Pattern era, I had seriously toyed with and experimented with the SMBX factor, only thing was, it proved to be very elusive and severely tried my patience and confidence when trying to use it as a Direct Relationship with the actual winners of races....It didn't then, and never will, "stand alone" as a predictor of winning a harness race...What was missing then, until recently that is, was sound handicapping to back up the SMBX paradigm....Therein lay the big problem....How to use the SMBX to advantage?

The SMBX, even with good handicappers, is often used without their knowing it or not....Evidence of this can be found in the closing odds of most any harness race....SMBX horses are almost always overbet, regardless of the handicapping process, as since starting this adventure I have been following the odds more intently on any horse with a Superior or at least decent MBX, and I have found that even with horses that have little or no good current form to suggest an improved or winning race is forthcoming, are still bet below the odds that the handicapping suggests despite their "non-contenderness"....This is why so many of the SMBX horses pay so little on a regular basis....STill, and this is the best part, sometimes a worthy contender slips thru the cracks of the crowds thinking and perceptions about a race, and the "true MBX horse will be overlooked on the board....I am still not completely sure why this is, but, no matter, Overlays abound on a regular and steady basis when simply finding a well qualified contender with a SMBX....

The questions that I am beginning to find answers to, are many fold....But, nothing new to me, as my handicapping is sound enough to find those solutiions and answers, because my foundation is so good to begin with....(I have paid dearly for that foundation, I may add)....

What to do with a very contentious MBX factor race ?
What about a lone SMBX horse with no good form, but with a good pace pattern ?
What SMBX horse with excellent form, but without at least a pace pattern matching some of the other top contenders...?
What about SMBX horse with excellent form and a superior pace pattern, but going up against a worthy class dropper(s) ?
How strong is just an acceptable MBX vs. SMBX, is it enough ?...
Is the SMBX better in higher or lower class races, or in Claimers or Conditioned races ?
And the list goes on and on..

There are also a myriad of other questions that must be answered before I can say that I have mastered this, the MBX aspect of my handicapping....

Still, the MBX should not be ignored altogether, is what I have learned recently, but when to ignore it, and when not to, is the bigger question I keep asking ?....

Many of these questions are being answered with each passing race, but each race is a different puzzle to solve, similar to many other races in look and feel, ,but in many enough cases, just different enough to continue asking more questions as I go along....I am learning tho...

P.S. if anyone intends to use the SMBX all by itself, you will go broke...:eek:

[mrroyboy]

You are not a "Fairly sound handicapper" John. You are far above that. One of the best I have ever met. I am trying to follow this thread but it is a little confusing.
Are you still using 2x wins minus places and shows? Do you have a cutoff number like plus 4 etc?
Glad you are researching this. It is definitely a good addition to any ones handicapping.

[LottaKash]

You are not a "Fairly sound handicapper" John. You are far above that. One of the best I have ever met. I am trying to follow this thread but it is a little confusing.
Are you still using 2x wins minus places and shows? Do you have a cutoff number like plus 4 etc?
Glad you are researching this. It is definitely a good addition to any ones handicapping.

Hey Roy, I will try to end the confusion....You've got the formula right, and it is as simple as that....

4 can be a cutoff in some races, but it really depends on the quality and competitiveness of the competition...As it stands now, I use "5" just as Quirin did also...It seems to be a good minimum in most races..."most"...

Still, as I stated earlier each and every race is different, so a 5 in one instance may not necessarily work in another....The key is to identifiy the horse that shows a willingness to win and use that score to simply reinforce the already known properties that a horse needs in order to win any particular race....Good handicapping still counts the most...And, if you don't have the handicapping down to begin, the SMBX will be only of "little value" in the long run.....But, by including the money box as an additive factor, it will certainly go a long ways in making a good method even better, imo....That is all there is to this thinking here....

There is no magic or big science to the MBX factor, is all....Just another tool worthy of consideration in one's own particular way of going...

[mrroyboy]

I agree 100 per cent. It's an additional factor. I think 5 is a good minimum number. Keep up the good work

[LottaKash]

A reason to smile a bit more today....Right on schedule..:cool:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY17MT031214ST46FIN66_zps3cd024a4.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY17MT031214ST46FIN66_zps3cd024a4.png.html)

[LottaKash]

Funny thing today, I held back on a couple of bets because they were just marginal plays based on the not so tight rules that have born as of yet....Don't want to redboard here, but I still have to say that the outcomes were surprising....

So, based on the loose rules I went ahead and made the remaining plays on my possibles list, as they resembled and mirrored the already today's missed & lost opportunities......Well, you can see below how that turned out... The losses don't bother me any, just the lost ops, is all...

The point of this is, this handicapping point of view being so new, I never know where the winners will come from, and so if I am to make more of this adventure, I have to give all the possibles equal play, at all the tracks...As I have stated in previous posts there are all sorts of things to consider in order to make some rules that will yield consistency and repeatability....I learn more and more each day, and it is slowly coming along, and as well as I had anticipated, just not as quickly tho....The best is coming...

On another note, I don't know just what it is about The Meadowlands this year so far, but I ain't liking the racing there much so far this season....Especially this C2 crap.....Still, this seems to happen every year for me, so when springtime comes along this will change my mindset, it always does, haha.....Hopefully again....

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY18MT031314ST66FIN60_zpsbd02591a.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY18MT031314ST66FIN60_zpsbd02591a.png.html)

[mrroyboy]

You are right about Meadowlands in the winter.

[LottaKash]

The struggle with the gambler vs. the wise player, both living within...

I made a play on a horse this afternoon, and I was discussing his chances with my missus at the lunch table today...I went on about how much I liked a horse (Mea R7 #9),and how strong he raced in his last performance...
That race was an super sharp extended win, and he had the pace pattern numbers to back up his great performance, and that if he came out of that race ok, that he would simply blow the doors off of the ones in this race... But, I explained further that a horse like this, a young lightly raced trotter, when moved up in class, and saddled with a bad post, will often times make a break in the new race, just due to exuberance of fitness, I'd say....So, the Fool (child) against the experience of the wise player (parent), made the play anyway at a juicy 5/2...As it turns out tho, this guy "DID" make a break....I struggle with the gambler in me sometimes, even tho in my deep down based on long term experince shouts "caution" as most times passing is the "real play" in here...Ouch..And he was off @3/2 to rub it in...

So, the next race comes up and I remove myself from the machine to take a break and allow the steam to dissipate, only to discover the only other race that I like at Mea, was up next, and it was a winner at $5.60, and I missed it....Haha...
==================================
continued...
What an overwhelming nite at the races for me...Especially being strictly a P&P capper and all....
I had no less than 7-programs open, and watching 7-tracks all simultaneously, sort of, all nite long too...All the while I am trying to staying synchronized and handicapping simultaneously, while watching the live video feeds....What a juggling act....Usually when I am finished with my homework, I will make a post it notes for my screen, so that I am a bit more organized, as I keep checking my pecking order of picks as the nite moves along....Well, tonite, I had no such post-it notes to use....What a hoot, trying to keep up...

In the end tho, it didn't cost me more than a buck, but in reality, I left some sweet plays on the table as a result of all the chaos...It is so hard to play catch up all nite long, while still handicapping and analyzing all at the same time....I usually only do 2 or 3 tracks a nite, and that is busy enough for me, but tonite...haha...yeehaw....There were some pretty easy horses to get tonite, simply by using the rules that I have in place so far....That is what makes this nite all the more frustrating, the ones that paid real good, were very gettable, and I simply missed out on them....Oh well...The good news is, there are always more just right around the corner...
==============================
Then too, I have been analyzing in greater detail, all the horses that have substantially huge MBX numbers, and deciding where they are in their current form cycle....Or to put it another way, horses that have very big numbers, for most part, will keep those numbers for most of the year, but they can't win all the races all the time....So what to do with these?... We all know that a horses winning form runs in cycles, but the thing of it is, that the horses with the SMBX's win more often than the average racehorse....I am trying to put in place a quick and ez decision maker in that regard, this is to better ascertain where a horse may be in his current cycle of fitness....I have made strides in that regard, but there is still more to do, and having to do all this homework day after day, doesn't allow me the time I would like to finish that part up....It remains a work in progress....The trouble with the big numbered horses is that they stay in winning form longer than the average Joe-horse, so often enough these horses may appear to be in tiptop shape, but I have been learinng that sometimes it is just an illusion of sorts, and even if they appear to be as good as the few trips before this one, in reality, as subtle as it appears sometimes, with a close up or troubled trip perhaps, they still may have passed the peak and are now regressing a bit....It is a very blurry and subjective thing with these types....

Well, it is 3am and I am way behind doing my homework for Sat's card (S).....Gotta get to it....Expecting bigger things real soon tho....

The struggle with the gambler vs. the wise player, both living within...
I made a play on a horse, and I was discussing his chances with my missus at the lunch table today...I went on about how much I liked a horse (Mea R7 #9),and how strong he raced in his last performance...
That race was an super sharp extended win, and he had the pace pattern numbers to back up his great performance, and that if he came out of that race ok, that he would simply blow the doors off of the ones in this race... But, I explained further that a horse like this, a young lightly raced trotter, when moved up in class, and saddled with a bad post, will often times make a break in the new race, just due to exuberance of fitness, I'd say....So, the Fool (child) against the experience of the wise player (parent), made the play anyway at a juicy 5/2...As it turns out tho, this guy "DID" make a break....I struggle with the gambler in me sometimes, even tho in my deep down based on long term experince shouts "caution" as it most times passing is the "real play" in here...Ouch..And he was off @3/2 to rub it in...
So, the next race comes up and I remove myself from the machine to take a break and allow the steam to dissipate, only to discover the only other race that I like at Mea, was up next, and it was a winner at $5.60....Haha...

P.S. I like to vent, it really helps to talk about these things, the neighbors could care less...haha...

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY19MT031414st60fin59_zpsdd991e86.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY19MT031414st60fin59_zpsdd991e86.png.html)

[mrroyboy]

Get some rest John. These all night handicapping sessions won't make it anymore. Ah the good old days. Harness Friday night at Liberty Bell all night poker game. Sat afternoon Keystone(Phila park) t-breds. More harness Sat night and then another card game if any of us were still awake and if any of us had any money left.

[LottaKash]

Get some rest John. These all night handicapping sessions won't make it anymore. Ah the good old days. Harness Friday night at Liberty Bell all night poker game. Sat afternoon Keystone(Phila park) t-breds. More harness Sat night and then another card game if any of us were still awake and if any of us had any money left.

Down memory lane again Roy, I see...I miss those kinds of days and nites too....Especially so, Liberty Bell Park...;)

As far as getting some rest, soon I think, as most of all of this is coming together, day by day, and card card....It shouldn't be too much longer before it will go to "prime-time"....Lots of silly little details and loose ends to work out yet, but the spirit and the bulk of the work is mostly done....Working on the do's an don'ts is all...Here's to hoping, sooner than later...Still, in handicapping there is always more to learn...50 years and I am still at it (again)...

Paraphrasing a quote from the Godfather flick, "just when I thought I was out, they (it) pull me back in....I love it still, tho...Just the age and the drudge of being a P&P capper, while never getting more into the computer way of things, makes it a bit harder tho....

[mrroyboy]

Sounds good to me John

[mrroyboy]

John I am really looking forward to you explaining what you are working on. I need all the help I can get!!! :confused:

[LottaKash]

Roy,. you had 2 out of 3 contest winners....:jump:

Perhaps you should be helping me....:D

[LottaKash]

I didn't like too much at the 4 places that I had run the numbers on tonite, so I watched mostly TV and read some things, and just occasionally checked in on Wdb and MVR from time to time, is all...

Funny thing tho, for anyone who reads anything that I post, I am always going off on the Big-M for one reason or another....So here goes, I find two nice looking MBX horses, that if running at another venue I would most likely venture a wager on them, but tonite with M1 being a big disappointment to me so far this year, yielded two very nice and quite gettable MBX winners...

I think I will have to rethink a few things further in regards to where and when the winners will come from....So far this "beta spot play method" is yielding winners at every venue that I have looked at so far...

Also note: So far this SPM is yielding quite a number of 2d Prize horses.....Very usable for the underneath parts (so far) of exotics, as well as the win spot...I don't have any formal numbers to back that up, but just off the top of my noggin I think I can very safely say as much....

It "may" with a little more research turn out to be a very profitable "place" method....


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[Sea Biscuit]

John I am surprised you picked #1 Six Bax in the 5th at Woodbine.

I wonder if you saw/noticed the month long stale date for this horse?

[LottaKash]

Biscuit, now you tell me....I did miss that....I am usually very meticulous and a stickler about such things too...Oh well..

Still, if the date was good, it was a solid play all the same, as he was making a big change in the classes to a field he should've been able to handle....The date in the end made all the difference, and why he was "short" in this one.....

Now I miss that $2 bucks all the more..:D

[mrroyboy]

Roy,. you had 2 out of 3 contest winners....:jump:

Perhaps you should be helping me....:D

Ask me how much real money I had on Silent Swing? 0 00000
I did however bet Tarpon. I am deadly with those even money shots.

[LottaKash]

On cruise control today....Ahhhhh:cool:


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[LottaKash]

Not much worth playing tonite, at least following this mode of searching for winners...

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY21MT031714ST55FIN51_zps59d3ad89.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/MEAL%20TICKET/DAY21MT031714ST55FIN51_zps59d3ad89.png.html)