Major League Baseball 2014

[Stillriledup]

Here are the season win totals posted by LVH in Las Vegas. Any thoughts, any opinions, any 'best bets'?

DIAMONDBACKS 80

BRAVES 87.5

ORIOLES 78

RED SOX 87.5

CUBS 68.5

WHITE SOX 77

REDS 83.5

INDIANS 80

ROCKIES 75.5

TIGERS 89.5

MARLINS 69.5

ASTROS 63.5

ROYALS 79.5

ANGELS 87.5

DODGERS 93.5

BREWERS 79.5

TWINS 71.5

METS 73.5

YANKEES 85.5

A'S 89

PHILLIES 76

PIRATES 84.5

PADRES 78.5

GIANTS 85.5

MARINERS 80.5

CARDINALS 91.5

RAYS 87.5

RANGERS 86.5

BLUE JAYS 79.5

NATIONALS 87.5

[ManU918]

Blue Jays Over would be my best bet.

[Valuist]

Angels Under 87 1/2
Nationals Over 87 1/2

[lamboguy]

i love the Mariners over the 80 1/2

[rastajenk]

A's, Rangers, and Angels are over .500, and the Mariners are just a half game below. Somehow that doesn't seem likely to me.

[horses4courses]

Very hard to predict whose starting rotations will stay healthy.

Looking at the numbers on the two Bay Area teams, I'm thinking they are a shade high. Saying the A's will get 90 wins, even with as well as they've done, is stretching it. The Giants seem to be all-in on Tim Hudson to help their questionable rotation. If he's healthy, great - if not, it could be another long season in SF.

Cain, Bumgarner, and Vogelsong should be okay - Lincecum is highly questionable after two poor seasons. Their bullpen took a hit when Chad Gaudin moved on - I see the Phillies won't even sign him now. Gaudin pitched many quality innings last season for a losing team - I'm not sure who can fill that gap this year for them.

[CincyHorseplayer]

We had a down year with a lot of key injuries and won 90 games so Reds over 83 wins is a great bet.

[horses4courses]

We had a down year with a lot of key injuries and won 90 games so Reds over 83 wins is a great bet.

I agree - that Reds squad is loaded with talent.
Canning Dusty Baker won't hurt you, either. ;)

[Valuist]

A couple other thoughts:

Yankees Under 85.5---Won 85 last year despite being net outscored by over 20 runs on the season. The key was a 30-16 record in one run games.

Orioles Over 78---two years ago, the O's won a lot of games and the key was their record in one run games. That evened out last year, as they only went 20-31 in one run games. Could see them and NYY reversing win totals.

Arizona Under 80---Goldschmidt was basically a one man wrecking crew last season. I expect teams to pitch around him more. Also expect that 34-21 record in one run games to revert to the mean.

[Bettowin]

Royals over 79.5 once again. I think they win at least 83.

[Stillriledup]

Good info guys, thanks.

How about Padres this year, they won 76 last year, i've heard some good things about these guys...over 78.5?

[Stillriledup]

Very hard to predict whose starting rotations will stay healthy.

Looking at the numbers on the two Bay Area teams, I'm thinking they are a shade high. Saying the A's will get 90 wins, even with as well as they've done, is stretching it. The Giants seem to be all-in on Tim Hudson to help their questionable rotation. If he's healthy, great - if not, it could be another long season in SF.

Cain, Bumgarner, and Vogelsong should be okay - Lincecum is highly questionable after two poor seasons. Their bullpen took a hit when Chad Gaudin moved on - I see the Phillies won't even sign him now. Gaudin pitched many quality innings last season for a losing team - I'm not sure who can fill that gap this year for them.

89 seems like a very high number for the Athletics, i agree.

[Stillriledup]

Angels Under 87 1/2
Nationals Over 87 1/2

I love the Nats over 87.5

The Angels underachieved so badly last year that i can't touch them with a 10 ft pole, but these could be 2 winners you've posted.

[Valuist]

Good info guys, thanks.

How about Padres this year, they won 76 last year, i've heard some good things about these guys...over 78.5?

I have the Giants as a potential over and the D-Backs as a potential under in that division. The Dodgers have a big number but played 2 months last year without Puig; they also had quite a few other injuries. I'm no expert on the Padres, but if the Giants improve and LA doesn't regress, its going to be tough to get to 79 wins.

[Stillriledup]

I have the Giants as a potential over and the D-Backs as a potential under in that division. The Dodgers have a big number but played 2 months last year without Puig; they also had quite a few other injuries. I'm no expert on the Padres, but if the Giants improve and LA doesn't regress, its going to be tough to get to 79 wins.

Hmmm, yeah, i hear you.

I think right now the teams i'm considering are: Nats over, Mariners under, A's under and i don't know what to do with the Yankees, i wish the number was higher so i can bet under, but 85 is do-able for them with the retooled roster.

[Valuist]

Don't laugh but the Mets may be an interesting over play here. Just lose less than 88 games. They were actually over .500 on the road (41-40), and that is no small accomplishment. They just were terrible at home. IMO, teams that are terrible at home in a given year are very likely to revert to the mean the next year. Road performance is really a better indicator of a team's true talent.

[Stillriledup]

Don't laugh but the Mets may be an interesting over play here. Just lose less than 88 games. They were actually over .500 on the road (41-40), and that is no small accomplishment. They just were terrible at home. IMO, teams that are terrible at home in a given year are very likely to revert to the mean the next year. Road performance is really a better indicator of a team's true talent.

This is great info, i'm going to think long and hard about the Mets over.

[cribking]

Cubs under 68.5

[kingfin66]

i love the Mariners over the 80 1/2

I love them under 80.5.

Sure, they got a great player in Cano, but his numbers will not be near what they were in LH batter friendly Yankee Stadium. Plus, the lineup cannot protect him. The M's will still have trouble scoring runs. Their number two starter, Iwakuma, will not be ready to start the season. The bullpen has the potential to be good.

The starting OF projects as:

LF - Ackley
CF - Saunders
RF - Corey "Sunglasses at Night" Hart

Hart did not even play last year because of two knee surgeries. Oh yeah, and their phenom, Taijan Walker, is aleady shut down due to shoulder soreness. It is shaping up to be another long summer for us in Seattle. We should be talking football by June, not that we ever stop.

[Stillriledup]

I love them under 80.5.

Sure, they got a great player in Cano, but his numbers will not be near what they were in LH batter friendly Yankee Stadium. Plus, the lineup cannot protect him. The M's will still have trouble scoring runs. Their number two starter, Iwakuma, will not be ready to start the season. The bullpen has the potential to be good.

The starting OF projects as:

LF - Ackley
CF - Saunders
RF - Corey "Sunglasses at Night" Hart

Hart did not even play last year because of two knee surgeries. Oh yeah, and their phenom, Taijan Walker, is aleady shut down due to shoulder soreness. It is shaping up to be another long summer for us in Seattle. We should be talking football by June, not that we ever stop.

And, don't forget a new "manager". :D

Here's a good article about the Mariners dysfunction.
http://seattletimes.com/html/mariners/2022420240_mariners08xml.html

[OTM Al]

Let's see. Got the 4 team parlay a year or two ago so let's see if we can do it again.

Tigers OVER 89.5 Just not a good division
Red Sox OVER 87.5
Mets UNDER 73.5. Last year was a fluke. Newest wonder pitcher on the DL
Yankees OVER 85.5 Wish this was the 83.5 I heard they were given elsewhere, but last year's team was a wreck and still got right at that number

[Stillriledup]

Let's see. Got the 4 team parlay a year or two ago so let's see if we can do it again.

Tigers OVER 89.5 Just not a good division
Red Sox OVER 87.5
Mets UNDER 73.5. Last year was a fluke. Newest wonder pitcher on the DL
Yankees OVER 85.5 Wish this was the 83.5 I heard they were given elsewhere, but last year's team was a wreck and still got right at that number


Pythagorean enthusiasts said NYY was a "78 win" team last year, but Parcells Enthusiasts say you are what your record says you are. They were lined about 85 last year and like you say, the entire season was a mess and they still won 85...now, its hard to imagine with additions such as Ellsbury, MCCann, Beltran and Tanaka that won't get them a few games bump not to mention they'll have a healthy Gardner, Teixeira and Jeter among others.

If i was forced to bet O/u on NYY i'd go over, but i wanted them to be lined at 90 so i could bet under.

[OTM Al]

Pythagorean enthusiasts said NYY was a "78 win" team last year, but Parcells Enthusiasts say you are what your record says you are. They were lined about 85 last year and like you say, the entire season was a mess and they still won 85...now, its hard to imagine with additions such as Ellsbury, MCCann, Beltran and Tanaka that won't get them a few games bump not to mention they'll have a healthy Gardner, Teixeira and Jeter among others.

If i was forced to bet O/u on NYY i'd go over, but i wanted them to be lined at 90 so i could bet under.

90 would have had me go under as well, I'm thinking 87-88 sounds about right. Probably miss the playoffs but they should have a better scoring team than last year as offense improves at several positions but declines only at one and the starters should be a bit better as well. That overcomes the one run game imbalance and maybe a game or two more.

[Stillriledup]

90 would have had me go under as well, I'm thinking 87-88 sounds about right. Probably miss the playoffs but they should have a better scoring team than last year as offense improves at several positions but declines only at one and the starters should be a bit better as well. That overcomes the one run game imbalance and maybe a game or two more.



Ellsbury
Jeter
Beltran
Teixeira
McCann
Soriano
Gardner
Johnson
Roberts.

Depending on how Hot Soriano is in the spring, he could be moved up in the order, but with a healthy Roberts, that's a decent lineup with some pop and some speed, Yanks desperately need Teixeira to come back to strong form, but who knows how that will go.

[JustRalph]

Guess who is coming to Rangers spring training in March

[CincyHorseplayer]

I agree - that Reds squad is loaded with talent.
Canning Dusty Baker won't hurt you, either. ;)

Thanks man!

Overall because of our offense we are a mediocre team as far as winning it all but we are good.We are in a band box and have absolutely failed to produce any offensive players in this entire ownership since 2007.We who suffer in this town know such things!We can pitch with anybody though.

Losing Dusty was bigtime.Coaching like it's 1978 wasn't working.And Dusty's playoff record showed he was the ultimate "F**k up a wet dream" guy with some great teams so yes you are right on with that observation!

Anyway that is the Cincinnati Reds homer report from me.Count on the over with that prediction but we've got a road to hoe to get elsewhere!

Rod

[Stillriledup]

Thanks man!

Overall because of our offense we are a mediocre team as far as winning it all but we are good.We are in a band box and have absolutely failed to produce any offensive players in this entire ownership since 2007.We who suffer in this town know such things!We can pitch with anybody though.

Losing Dusty was bigtime.Coaching like it's 1978 wasn't working.And Dusty's playoff record showed he was the ultimate "F**k up a wet dream" guy with some great teams so yes you are right on with that observation!

Anyway that is the Cincinnati Reds homer report from me.Count on the over with that prediction but we've got a road to hoe to get elsewhere!

Rod

OVER on the Reds w the "Dusty off" angle?

[CincyHorseplayer]

OVER on the Reds w the "Dusty off" angle?

Absolutely.

Another my version of insider Reds,is Joey Votto has been on the hotstove every Tuesday night taking some tough,hell taking some nasty ass questions like a man and said it flat out="I was not healthy last year".Votto is a proud guy and sleeps with Ted William's book under his pillow and is the best pure hitter I have seen come through our system in my adult lifetime(I'm 41).This guy if the OBP is in front of him could go off like a firework.

Again SRU it's Homer reporting but I do know the details of this team!Our lackluster offseason had to happen.This team is in a farm system bottleneck and they lacked a true identity last year.Dusty Baker after a mild heart attack should not have been coaching.It's on the players and they know they f**ked up.Brian price is a smart guy.Smart enough to let them know it.It's been his first focus in spring "THis is the way we play Reds Baseball".We had a best player vs manager situation battle here last season.Gone.Expect a good Reds team this year.

[Valuist]

OVER on the Reds w the "Dusty off" angle?

He's still living off getting to the 2002 World Series by riding Bonds coattails.

[Stillriledup]

Here are the season win totals posted by LVH in Las Vegas. Any thoughts, any opinions, any 'best bets'?

DIAMONDBACKS 80

BRAVES 87.5

ORIOLES 78

RED SOX 87.5

CUBS 68.5

WHITE SOX 77

REDS 83.5

INDIANS 80

ROCKIES 75.5

TIGERS 89.5

MARLINS 69.5

ASTROS 63.5

ROYALS 79.5

ANGELS 87.5

DODGERS 93.5

BREWERS 79.5

TWINS 71.5

METS 73.5

YANKEES 85.5

A'S 89

PHILLIES 76

PIRATES 84.5

PADRES 78.5

GIANTS 85.5

MARINERS 80.5

CARDINALS 91.5

RAYS 87.5

RANGERS 86.5

BLUE JAYS 79.5

NATIONALS 87.5


Updated odds (only listed are teams that changed from the original post):

Braves 88
Orioles 80
White Sox 76.5
Reds 84
Indians 80.5
Marlins 69
Astros 62.5
Royals 82
Angels 88
Twins 70.5
Yanks 86.5
A's 89.5
Phillies 76.5
Mariners 80
Rangers 87
Nats 88.5

[Valuist]

Pythagorean enthusiasts said NYY was a "78 win" team last year, but Parcells Enthusiasts say you are what your record says you are. They were lined about 85 last year and like you say, the entire season was a mess and they still won 85...now, its hard to imagine with additions such as Ellsbury, MCCann, Beltran and Tanaka that won't get them a few games bump not to mention they'll have a healthy Gardner, Teixeira and Jeter among others.

If i was forced to bet O/u on NYY i'd go over, but i wanted them to be lined at 90 so i could bet under.

Parcells was a great coach, but that line about "you are what your record says you are" is one of the dumbest sports lines out there. I guess its ok for a coach to think that, or fans, but handicappers have to always look past win/loss records, which are often misleading.

[Stillriledup]

Opening day.

[OTM Al]

Opening day.

Technically if you don't count the two games in Australia and the one last night. Just got back from seeing Tampa host Toronto. Must say I enjoyed the Trop much more than I thought. It was fun. Despite today's outburst, Tampa looks a little week in the scoring department, but should compete. Toronto looked awful. Reyes led off the game and wasn't seen again.

[Marshall Bennett]

Several teams will struggle this year. Blue Jays, Cubs, and Astros just to name a few.

[Stillriledup]

Technically if you don't count the two games in Australia and the one last night. Just got back from seeing Tampa host Toronto. Must say I enjoyed the Trop much more than I thought. It was fun. Despite today's outburst, Tampa looks a little week in the scoring department, but should compete. Toronto looked awful. Reyes led off the game and wasn't seen again.

Anytime the Dodgers are involved, it doesn't count.

:D

[HoofedInTheChest]

Technically if you don't count the two games in Australia and the one last night. Just got back from seeing Tampa host Toronto. Must say I enjoyed the Trop much more than I thought. It was fun. Despite today's outburst, Tampa looks a little week in the scoring department, but should compete. Toronto looked awful. Reyes led off the game and wasn't seen again.
Uh huh, Dickey was in fine form. They have no starting pitching again this year, i don't expect much from them. Reyes pulled his hammy and is on the 15 day DL, just wonderful.

I cant stand watching games at that stadium in Tampa, i thought our very own Rogers Centre was bad, but that place takes the cake. Baseball should be played on grass, the turf just looks gross.

I was really impressed with Wil Myers, that kid is going to be a stud.

[OTM Al]

Uh huh, Dickey was in fine form. They have no starting pitching again this year, i don't expect much from them. Reyes pulled his hammy and is on the 15 day DL, just wonderful.

I cant stand watching games at that stadium in Tampa, i thought our very own Rogers Centre was bad, but that place takes the cake. Baseball should be played on grass, the turf just looks gross.

I was really impressed with Wil Myers, that kid is going to be a stud.

I thought the same thing about the Trop until going there. It is much more friendly and fun in person. Kinda the reverse of Fenway which looks fun and nostalgic on TV but is a real dump to attend.

[Stillriledup]

One of the few prop bets i made for MLB was Josh Hamilton UNDER 25 HRs.

How'm eye lookin boys!! :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Several teams will struggle this year. Blue Jays, Cubs, and Astros just to name a few.

What about next year :D