Southwest discussion

[letswastemoney]

I don't know why there isn't a thread for this.

It's a boring choice, but I like Ride On Curlin quite a bit. He should receive a nice trip stalking the speed and owns the class to win. My only concern is that his poor Street Sense S. effort cannot be explained. For a longshot play, Fire Starter may help the exotics.

[PhantomOnTour]

I think Paganol can grab a piece off just a MSW sprint win.
He is part of a Cody Autrey entry,


lot of speed in this race and maybe he can pick up a lot of these late.

[Thebigguy]

I don't know why there isn't a thread for this.

It's a boring choice, but I like Ride On Curlin quite a bit. He should receive a nice trip stalking the speed and owns the class to win. My only concern is that his poor Street Sense S. effort cannot be explained. For a longshot play, Fire Starter may help the exotics.


I like Strong Mandate on top. Nothing clever here. The horse was best in the BC and is working up a storm. He should be able to sit just off the pace and take over when ready. I dont like Ride On Curlin or Tapiture at all. Ill use :1: :1a: :4: :11: underneath the chalk.

[BlinkersOn]

I think Strong Mandate is going to be tough in here, but the other horse I like is Walt, and if I get 15/1, I'll be thrilled.

[woodtoo]

:3: coastline with :1: :1a: and :8: ride on curlin.

thinking :3: will rebound off last.

[BlinkersOn]

I think Strong Mandate is going to be tough in here, but the other horse I like is Walt, and if I get 15/1, I'll be thrilled.

I also like the 4 Louie's Flower a lot, 2 Tapiture and 3. Coastline.who deserves another chance.

[Robert Fischer]

:7: - Strong Mandate
:2: - Tapiture
:4: - Louies Flower
:1::1a: - the 1 entry

[Ocala Mike]

Have a good vibe about the :11: .

[luvalab]

Can't blame anyone for taking the chalk here, they've won 10 out of the last 20. And, Strong Mandate has been working well.

I'm going to go with the #2 Tapiture. Horses that won their last starts are 16 of the last 20. He ran well above the average time the Ky Jockey Club and those horses are 50% in the Southwest. Also, Asmussen seemed happy with his recent work, but he'll definitely need to fire fresh. Going to put him over Strong Mandate and a couple of prices.

[woodtoo]

Beat a good field handily,shoudnt mind the class jump.
Great price to boot.:ThmbUp:

Have a good vibe about the :11: .

[Robert Fischer]

you know what? I don't like the 1 as much as the 5...
:7:
:2:
:5:
:4:



:7: - Strong Mandate
:2: - Tapiture
:4: - Louies Flower
:1::1a: - the 1 entry

[AxleLode]

:1: o/u :3: :4: :5: :7: ex

[davew]

a bunch of nice looking horses
I am thinking too much front end speed with Strong Mandate and others

setting up for a closer like Ride on Curlin

[Robert Fischer]

$1 exacta 7 w/ 1-8 = $7
$1 exacta 1-8 w/7 =$7

$2 exacta 7 w/1,2,3,4,5,8 =$12
$2 exacta 1,2,4,5 w/ 7 = $8

.50cent tri 257/2457/12345678 = $27

$10 win $30plc $99shw on 5Kendall's Boy :eek:

Total = $200 wagered

[Robert Fischer]

Tapiture was a little erratic in the stretch but looked pretty good.

[raybo]

I posted this earlier on my forum. 7 2 8 3 1 in ranked order. Top 4 ranked horses made the superfecta.

Southwest Stakes (http://alldataexcel.freeforums.org/post3666.html?sid=d40aa49316cd680c4bc64ef2648611e6 #p3666)

[tanner12oz]

I haven't seen the replay yet but I'm pretty sure strong mandate was all over the map too

[Robert Fischer]

Tough trip early for Strong Mandate, as he got caught 5 wide on the 1st turn and then had to take back and circle the field wide.

Meanwhile Tapiture got a dream start up the rail.

[Robert Fischer]

Can't blame anyone for taking the chalk here, they've won 10 out of the last 20. And, Strong Mandate has been working well.

I'm going to go with the #2 Tapiture. Horses that won their last starts are 16 of the last 20. He ran well above the average time the Ky Jockey Club and those horses are 50% in the Southwest. Also, Asmussen seemed happy with his recent work, but he'll definitely need to fire fresh. Going to put him over Strong Mandate and a couple of prices.
I posted this earlier on my forum. 7 2 8 3 1 in ranked order. Top 4 ranked horses made the superfecta.

Southwest Stakes (http://alldataexcel.freeforums.org/post3666.html?sid=d40aa49316cd680c4bc64ef2648611e6 #p3666)

:ThmbUp:

[Grits]

Tough trip early for Strong Mandate, as he got caught 5 wide on the 1st turn and then had to take back and circle the field wide.

Meanwhile Tapiture got a dream start up the rail.

True. Strong Mandate had to cover more real estate, still, Tapiture looked good in the stretch.

[jefftune]

Another very tough trip for Strong Mandate. He's still my Derby horse!

[burnsy]

True. Strong Mandate had to cover more real estate, still, Tapiture looked good in the stretch.


Agree, I want to see the start again...Tapiture was sharp, Strong Mandate was on the chase from the start I think. Asmussen wasn't kidding his horse was ready to go today. Du Big on the inside.....Too Tall on the outside...Du Big..Too Tall....Burnsys got nada/neither and its an 1828 pic 3........in the finale....:bang:

[CincyHorseplayer]

I thought it was a gift to get 7-1 on Ride On Curlin.I had the race a 54 x 3 with this guy inheriting a dream scenario.But in a field loaded with speed horses Borel guns him into the first turn 8 wide and into a pace duel.I knew it was over before they hit the backstretch!

[tanner12oz]

I played bourbonize who got hung up in the gate...think the start and also the slower then expected pace hurt his chances...strong mandate is going to need to fire without excuse in his next start or hell be watching the derby from his stall

[CincyHorseplayer]

Tapiture looked great but he'll look even better when he hits the pedigree wall!He's a 3-3 on stamina index.Could be this year's Gemologist or Verrazano,not a Derby threat IMO.

[letswastemoney]

I'd give Ride On Curlin one more shot as well. The wide trip cost him the most.

[Thebigguy]

$1 exacta 7 w/ 1-8 = $7
$1 exacta 1-8 w/7 =$7

$2 exacta 7 w/1,2,3,4,5,8 =$12
$2 exacta 1,2,4,5 w/ 7 = $8

.50cent tri 257/2457/12345678 = $27

$10 win $30plc $99shw on 5Kendall's Boy :eek:

Total = $200 wagered

Are these real wagers?

[luvalab]

I've watched the video a bunch while making my notes. Here are my thoughts, which are pretty much the same as everyone else:

Tapiture got a great trip and did what a horse should do with that kind of trip by pulling away in the stretch. I think Santana won that race going into the first turn when he held his spot on the rail. Tapiture was a little green in the stretch and will have some distance questions to answer going forward, but he looked good today.

Strong Mandate drifted out and bumped another right out of the gate, then altered course on the 1st turn to be even wider, he was 4 wide on the 2nd turn and chased hard down the stretch. I do like the determination he showed to keep running considering the trip.

Unfortunately, with the only other time the Southwest was run at 1-1/16 miles in the last 20 years being on a Sloppy track I don't have a final time to compare it to from a historical standpoint. But, the average time for the 1-1/16 miles Rebel on a fast track is 1:43.99 out of 18. Roughly a second faster than Tapiture ran today (1:44.95). However, one thing is for sure Tapiture and Strong Mandate were by far the best of these.

[burnsy]

Lukas has become a patient coach over the years, he seems to be less aggressive with these younger horses than he used to be. Tapiture was cranked and ready to go as advertised. Strong Mandate not so much, the start was sluggish and he was chasing wide. More to come, he had Oxbow and Will Take Charge peaking when it counted last year. Recent history has proven that the Arkansas (OP) route has been a place to watch these horses develop....many future "studs" in the game have been taking this path. This is the race when I start paying attention to the 3 yo's. The prep season has officially gotten underway!

[Valuist]

I've watched the video a bunch while making my notes. Here are my thoughts, which are pretty much the same as everyone else:

Tapiture got a great trip and did what a horse should do with that kind of trip by pulling away in the stretch. I think Santana won that race going into the first turn when he held his spot on the rail. Tapiture was a little green in the stretch and will have some distance questions to answer going forward, but he looked good today.

Strong Mandate drifted out and bumped another right out of the gate, then altered course on the 1st turn to be even wider, he was 4 wide on the 2nd turn and chased hard down the stretch. I do like the determination he showed to keep running considering the trip.

Unfortunately, with the only other time the Southwest was run at 1-1/16 miles in the last 20 years being on a Sloppy track I don't have a final time to compare it to from a historical standpoint. But, the average time for the 1-1/16 miles Rebel on a fast track is 1:43.99 out of 18. Roughly a second faster than Tapiture ran today (1:44.95). However, one thing is for sure Tapiture and Strong Mandate were by far the best of these.

You can't compare times from races run at Oaklawn in other years. That surface changes so much that unadjusted times really mean nothing.

[Racey]

Wow what a brutal ride to get strung out 8 wide then be forced to battle for the lead 4 across the track.......no way he rides this horse next time.....NO WAY !!! :bang:

[classhandicapper]

When I saw the race live, I thought Strong Mandate and Ride on Curlin had very tough trips racing so wide and making such strong early moves.

But after I watched the rest of races, it seemed like wide outside sweeps were fairly common during most of the card. I'm not saying the rail was bad (a few horses raced well inside or just off the rail also), but it almost seemed like sweeping wide was an advantage (or certainly not much of disadvantage).

So even though I still think Strong Mandate and Ride on Curlin ran well, I don't think they ran quite as well as my initial thinking.

[Racey]

Ride on C urlin was compromised by the Jockey.....no idea why he thought he needed to leave....just bizzare