Optional Claiming Races

[Robert Goren]

NYRA runs a lot of optional claiming races. They come in sorts of claiming prices. I have the 1x in everything from OC14,0001x to OC25,0001x to OC350001x to OC500001x to OC75,0001x. In lengths, how much difference is there in them? Or is as I am beginning to suspect very little difference?

[Tom]

I'll post a list later, after dinner, but look at how they shake out as to age and state bred.

[Tom]

Going back through 2013, I have Allowance, optional claimers as:

C75,000/nw1x for 3yos, both sexes and state breds and a few 2yos
C35,000/nw1x for 4up, both sexes
C14,000/nw1x for 3up, state breds

The starter optional claimers, the ones that end in /SAL - 20k, etc. have a lot of various prices. Under 50,000, claimer do not do well. At 50,000+, they start winning more often.

[Robert Goren]

Going back through 2013, I have Allowance, optional claimers as:

C75,000/nw1x for 3yos, both sexes and state breds and a few 2yos
C35,000/nw1x for 4up, both sexes
C14,000/nw1x for 3up, state breds

The starter optional claimers, the ones that end in /SAL - 20k, etc. have a lot of various prices. Under 50,000, claimer do not do well. At 50,000+, they start winning more often.For most of 2013, that was the way it was. With the opening of the inner, they appear to have had more claiming price variations especially with the OC ...... 2x s . Now throw in the Starter Option claimers which aren't always noted in BRIS PPs, but are several lengths behind the others and you are spending a lot of time looking back at the charts trying to get a handle on it.

[classhandicapper]

For most of 2013, that was the way it was. With the opening of the inner, they appear to have had more claiming price variations especially with the OC ...... 2x s . Now throw in the Starter Option claimers which aren't always noted in BRIS PPs, but are several lengths behind the others and you are spending a lot of time looking back at the charts trying to get a handle on it.

It's a curse and a blessing.

Classing horses has become so complex it really tests your knowledge and technique. It also takes more time. That's the bad news. The good news is that if you sort it all out, you have an edge because everyone else is either just looking at speed figures or doesn't understand the class moves.

[Robert Goren]

It's a curse and a blessing.

Classing horses has become so complex it really tests your knowledge and technique. It also takes more time. That's the bad news. The good news is that if you sort it all out, you have an edge because everyone else is either just looking at speed figures or doesn't understand the class moves.For the small bettor it is another pain. For the big bettor, the payoff is worth the effort.

[dlivery]

As far as to reading and interpiting those race definitions are and what works for me is like a puzzle is too break each of those conditions down and read each line as fit they appear :confused:

[ultracapper]

Gotta know your conditions, that's for sure. How many folks actually dig in and really understand that N1X can mean a dozen different things. "Non winner of one other than..........what? Fairplex is different than Del Mar which is different than Golden Gate and so on. Remember the implications also. Starter allowance N2L at Santa Anita is different than starter allowance N2L at Del Mar. At Santa Anita, MSW winners can be eligible if they enter into a $40K claimer or lower, at Del Mar, MSW winners will never be eligible because it's for horses that broke their maidens at $40K claiming or lower. At Del Mar, the claiming $25K N2L is a better race than the StAlw N2L. In the StAlw, you have more horses than not that broke their maiden at MC20, while the horses that won MSW races that can't quite cut it at the N1X level have to go into the C25N2L race. At Santa Anita, that same horse can enter a C40K and then go into the StAlw.

[Light]

Now throw in the Starter Option claimers which aren't always noted in BRIS PPs

Can you give an example of this^^^. I am currently trying to reconcile all the hundreds of classes at Aqu inner and have not seen a class Bris does not "note".

[classhandicapper]

Can you give an example of this^^^. I am currently trying to reconcile all the hundreds of classes at Aqu inner and have not seen a class Bris does not "note".

I don't know anything about Bris, but the major problem is the "hundreds". :bang:

There are so many variations, the sample sizes are often too small to calculate a reasonable speed figure PAR and the purse structure is not necessarily perfectly efficient either. I've identified a couple of cases where I am certain a particular class of horses is running for too much money relative to another on the same circuit. That's also probably nifty information if you are an owner/trainer and want some help spotting horses in a way that will maximize earnings.

Coming up with a good way to get at the pecking order and the gaps between the classes can get very tricky. Even when I come up with a good idea, I sometimes can't get the data without a huge manual project.

[greengorilla]

Its somewhat complicated. First off Nw1x's at Aqueduct are for horses who have never won a race other then Maiden, Claiming or Starter or state bred race. If you have never won a race other then those you can run your horse without being claimed. Those horses who have already won and allowance race or stake dont qualify, those horses would have to run for the tag, say 75 35 25. But as a standard most 75nw1x that arent in for the tag and are considered big time racing prospects. These favorites in these type of races would sell for well over 200k privately. These races attract top quality horses. Here at gulf they refuse to write a 50clm open because they want those horses to step up and fill the races for pletcher and browns monsters, to get the races to go. Big time horses will never run cheap allowances because it affects insured values and private sale values of these horses. It doesn't mean a horse dropping in from 75opt into say a 25opt is a automatic cinch. But as a rule cheaper allowances are cheaper horses. And most of the money to be made by owners and trainers is in the sales ring. Hope this helps answering your question. Also horses in for the tag most often at the bottom level allowance are older horses that are hard knockers who have few races left in them. Most likely there gelded so they cant breed and should be given much respect at the window especially in the nw1x they strike at big prices. Good Luck.

[Light]

I don't know anything about Bris, but the major problem is the "hundreds". :bang:

There are so many variations, the sample sizes are often too small to calculate a reasonable speed figure PAR and the purse structure is not necessarily perfectly efficient either.

You'd be surprised how few sample sizes there are per meet of any specific race class. For example, the OP asked about the differences with OC14,0001x to OC25,0001x to OC350001x to OC500001x to OC75,0001x thinking he is seeing them all the time. He's mistaken. I don't think there is more than one sample of each of these the entire meet (if you're lucky). That would mean you only get one sample for a specific distance, age, sex and open or state bred. So to get a par you do need to use years of data. I'm not sure they even have run one OC350001x or OC500001x this meet.

The reason I have decided to undertake this task of figuring out the correct Bris par is because Bris pars contradict themselves. One week they may list a 6f OC25kn2x st race as a 90. A month later a 96. I wrote Bris and asked them how many samples do they use to get a par and they said they use the last 2 years at that specific class. But it is changing with one race dramatically and that is one of the more common classifications run. With 2 years of data,the par should not change that much, so they are doing something weird. Plus they have lower claimers with higher pars than higher claiming levels. So If you are class sensitive like me, you have really been taken for a ride.

However, when class pars work, they are indispensable. For example there was a horse earlier in January who entered a Mdn20K st bred from an open company Mdn12.5K. This horse also had the fastest time in the field. Everyone dismissed him @ 10-1 as moving up in class. A check on my pars found him actually moving down in class. He romped by over 5 lengths. There are many other situations where it is hard to tell if a horse is moving up or down and accurate pars really make a difference.

[classhandicapper]

You'd be surprised how few sample sizes there are per meet of any specific race class.

I used to think it wouldn't be that hard to either get a good par or at least interpolate the tougher ones, but now I know better. I tried to do it on a national level last year and I felt like an idiot for even trying. :lol:

I have access to over 15 years of data right now for the entire country. That helps a lot with the vanilla classes. But some of it is not specific enough as to the oddball conditions. So there are holes all over the place I have to try to fill.

[Cholly]

[QUOTE=greengorilla]Its somewhat complicated. First off Nw1x's at Aqueduct are for horses who have never won a race other then Maiden, Claiming or Starter or state bred race. If you have never won a race other then those you can run your horse without being claimed. Those horses who have already won and allowance race or stake dont qualify, those horses would have to run for the tag, say 75 35 25. But as a standard most 75nw1x that arent in for the tag and are considered big time racing prospects. These favorites in these type of races would sell for well over 200k privately. These races attract top quality horses."

Might I add one thing? In the OC75/n1x restricted to 3yo’s there is often a high stakes game of Liar’s Poker transpiring. Frequently there’s a very lightly raced horse with only a couple or so lifetime starts whose ability has not yet been shown. Sometimes the horse hasn’t cleared the condition but is entered for the tag. If the horse is the goods, the owner can take down the winner’s purse ($40K+) and if he doesn’t get claimed, come right back and run the condition again while protected. And if the horse isn’t the goods, they could get claimed, the owner collects $75K and maybe gets out on his investment.

From the other point of view, if somebody thinks the current owner is trying to put one over, they can claim the horse. Even if the horse wins, the new owner still has that condition left to run the horse in. Of course, he’s out the $75K, and the horse may not be any better than what he’s already shown.

At $75K, it’s definitely a big boy game, and interesting to watch from the cheap seats.

[Robert Goren]

A horse "dropping" from OC750001x to OC250001x after running third isn't a cinch that is for sure.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yeah I agree about the 75 to 25 drop and IMO it's usually because how the one poster explained it.The higher tag is usually for the lightly raced younger horses.If they aren't "It" dropping into the 25 facing a bunch of multiple winners who have racked them up in exactly these type of OC races,they can still get throttled.That said a lot of the OC62.5/n2x,N3x races I've seen at GP this winter are a cut below stakes caliber.

[plainolebill]

[QUOTE=greengorilla]..........Might I add one thing? In the OC75/n1x restricted to 3yo’s there is often a high stakes game of Liar’s Poker transpiring. Frequently there’s a very lightly raced horse with only a couple or so lifetime starts whose ability has not yet been shown. Sometimes the horse hasn’t cleared the condition but is entered for the tag. If the horse is the goods, the owner can take down the winner’s purse ($40K+) and if he doesn’t get claimed, come right back and run the condition again while protected. And if the horse isn’t the goods, they could get claimed, the owner collects $75K and maybe gets out on his investment.

From the other point of view, if somebody thinks the current owner is trying to put one over, they can claim the horse. Even if the horse wins, the new owner still has that condition left to run the horse in. Of course, he’s out the $75K, and the horse may not be any better than what he’s already shown.

At $75K, it’s definitely a big boy game, and interesting to watch from the cheap seats.

I've seen this move fairly often in Socal - put a horse in for the tag, win, enter for the condition and win again.

[Light]

From my database for Aqu inner, the 0C750001x seems to be for 2yo's and 3yo's. I do not have any races showing horses older than 3yo racing for this classification.

The OC250001X seems to be for older horses 3yo's and up. I do not show this classification run by 2yo's or 3yo's only. Correct me if I'm wrong on this specific condition.