a few betfair questions

[formula_2002]

1. "Commission on this market
5% Market Base Rate (minus your discount)
Your Discount Rate explained "
Is that 5% of what is bet or 5% on what is returned on a winning bet.

[cosmicway]

On the net gain - heard they want to make it 7%.

[formula_2002]

On the net gain - heard they want to make it 7%.

thanks

question #2
last night I monitored a delta down race where the track odds were 1/9
(a win would return 1.10 for a $1 bet)

betfair offered a winning return of 1.50. Is the winning return 1.50 or
(1 + (.50 x .95))= 1.475 ?

[formula_2002]

todays 6th race at saf scottsville.

at betfair, a $1 bet on the 8 returns $5.00,
track odds 3-1.,returns about $4.00

sound too good to be true.. Is it?

[cosmicway]

It's 1.475 in the first example.
Then 5.00 is 4/1 in fractional format. The difference is because bf have lower takeoff percentage also it is always possible they evaluated the race different from your track.

Betfair are fools because the European courts have declared them illegal.
Their lawyers were losers. But those were cangaroo courts as well.

[horses4courses]

With Betfair, it is one thing to have attractive odds on offer.
It is another to actually have them matched for a large amount.

Example:

You see 5.00 (4-1) offered on a horse you believe will be 3-1, or less.
You may want to bet at least $200 at those odds,
but find that the person offering them will only lay up to $50 (a $200 liability) on that horse.

[formula_2002]

With Betfair, it is one thing to have attractive odds on offer.
It is another to actually have them matched for a large amount.

Example:

You see 5.00 (4-1) offered on a horse you believe will be 3-1, or less.
You may want to bet at least $200 at those odds,
but find that the person offering them will only lay up to $50 (a $200 liability) on that horse.

I may be interested in any odds greater than track odds

[cosmicway]

With Betfair, it is one thing to have attractive odds on offer.
It is another to actually have them matched for a large amount.

Example:

You see 5.00 (4-1) offered on a horse you believe will be 3-1, or less.
You may want to bet at least $200 at those odds,
but find that the person offering them will only lay up to $50 (a $200 liability) on that horse.

That depends on the size of the market.
Champions league is one thing.
Israel-Lebanon second division is another.

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
1

Post
12:25

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$34,506 "
PGNO
6


I can bet 48 at betfair and get 3.7-1


Tampa Bay Downs - Race 1
# Win Place Show
6 $7.20 $3.40 $2.60

a bet at the track would have returned $3.60 for a $1 bet
betfair would have returned (3.7*.95) = 3.51 for a $1 bet
__________________

In the above play, (as I post in the selections forum) betfair returned less than the track.
It's not as simple as just betting with betfair, one needs to watch both boards.

[classhandicapper]

With Betfair, it is one thing to have attractive odds on offer.
It is another to actually have them matched for a large amount.

Example:

You see 5.00 (4-1) offered on a horse you believe will be 3-1, or less.
You may want to bet at least $200 at those odds,
but find that the person offering them will only lay up to $50 (a $200 liability) on that horse.

When that used to happen to me at e-horse exchange I'd take whatever I could at the exchange and bet the rest at a rebate shop.

[Some_One]

1. "Commission on this market
5% Market Base Rate (minus your discount)
Your Discount Rate explained "
Is that 5% of what is bet or 5% on what is returned on a winning bet.

It is on the gross profit of the market.

The difference is, say you have two bets, 10 win on a 5-1 horse and 10 win on a 10-1 horse. The 5-1 wins, so you get 50 back for that, but you lost 10 on the 10-1 horse. Your commission would be 5% (or 6.5% now for Aussieland and Canadians) of the 40 dollars.

[Some_One]

That depends on the size of the market.
Champions league is one thing.
Israel-Lebanon second division is another.

Exactly, UK and Aussie racing should be no problem, US racing depends on the track but if you're not betting thousands you should be ok. Singapore and South Africa the liquidity is so bad I don't bother to try anymore.

[formula_2002]

comparing nyra tack odds to betfair odds

nyra vig=.15 (1.176 book)
betfair vig =.05 (1.0526 book)

A horse goes off at 2-1 nyra track odds. To get the benifit of betfair 5% (or less vig) you min betfair odds must be >=2.39-1.
If you get 2-1 at betfair, your vig is the same as NYRA + the 5% betfair vig.
They take 5% of your net return

2-1 odds =.33%

.33%/1.176 = "X"/1.0526

"x"= .295% = 2.385-1 odds

[davew]

you have to remember that Betfair does not show odds, but returned/risked for a dollar

[formula_2002]

you have to remember that Betfair does not show odds, but returned/risked for a dollar
as I understand it, return-1 = dollar odds odds.

the $1 return for track or betfair odds of 2-1 is $3

[davew]

Yes, and you also have to remember that many times there are large odds moves after it is too late to respond to with parimutual pools.

[formula_2002]

Yes, and you also have to remember that many times there are large odds moves after it is too late to respond to with parimutual pools.
perhaps the way to play it, is to bet both. one in the U.S. the other at betfair.
Over a long number of races, if the betfair price exceeds or equals the track, its a better return for me.
All my data is based on U.S. track odds

[formula_2002]

Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
"UK Wolverhampton
Race
7

Post
12:15

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,397 "
PGNO
3

betfair payoff 2.3-1

U.S. payout was only 2.00...

[formula_2002]

AQU R 4. BETFAIR, #1, THEIR WAS $154 AVIALABLE FOR A $8.4 RETURN PER $1.
U.S. RETURN WAS $3.75

[Some_One]

AQU R 4. BETFAIR, #1, THEIR WAS $154 AVIALABLE FOR A $8.4 RETURN PER $1.
U.S. RETURN WAS $3.75

In the US pools, the #1 is coupled with the #1A, on BF, they are separate betting interests, although the other side of the entry was 9s as well.

[formula_2002]

In the US pools, the #1 is coupled with the #1A, on BF, they are separate betting interests, although the other side of the entry was 9s as well.


thanks. thats helpful to know

[formula_2002]

how does betfair adjust for breakage. example

their web site indiactes , say market "back" price of $5.10.
If that horse wins, the return to the bettor is (5.10-1) X .95= 3.895.
what it the return to the bettor after breakage?

[davew]

there is no breakage

if you back a horse at 5.1 for $10
and it gets matched by someone - they hold your $10
and return $51 to you if it wins, if it loses they keep the $10

if it is a dead heat with 1 other, you only get half back
so you get $25.50 back if backed
if dead heat with 2 others, you get back $17

dead heats are bad for big favorites, frequently winners get back less than they paid

after all your backs/lays for the race if you have a profit, then betfair gets their 5% of your winnings

[formula_2002]

there is no breakage

if you back a horse at 5.1 for $10
and it gets matched by someone - they hold your $10
and return $51 to you if it wins, if it loses they keep the $10

if it is a dead heat with 1 other, you only get half back
so you get $25.50 back if backed
if dead heat with 2 others, you get back $17

dead heats are bad for big favorites, frequently winners get back less than they paid

after all your backs/lays for the race if you have a profit, then betfair gets their 5% of your winnings


based on previous notes, I though the that return was ((5.1-1) X .95)+1 = 4.895.

But now I notice that betfair indicates the book %, so I gather you are correct..I must have misunderstood the previous notes.

There are three returns indiocated on the betfair web site. Which return do they base the book % on ?