cosmicway
02-16-2014, 07:01 AM
Basically the question is which one is better, when the race course take off percentages are equal ?
If the prices are fixed I can find the proportions using a dutching calculator.
If for example I wish to bet $100 and the prices are 1-2 = 6.60, 2-1 = 9.60 then it works out bet(1-2) = $59.26, bet(2-1) = $40.74 and the likely returns are $391.11, $391.10 respectively (almost equal that is).
If the prices are not fixed and it is mutuel betting then the race course might -if they wanted to- do the dutching for me.
That means accepting a new bet symbolized as "f(1-2)-dutched" perhaps and do the following thing:
If the total money from the receipts on the undutched 1-2s is X(1-2) and the total money on the undutched 2-1s is X(2-1) and my money is Y then accept that the fraction X(1-2) / ( X(1-2) + X(2-1) ) of Y went to the 1-2 and the fraction X(2-1) / ( X(1-2) + X(2-1) ) of Y went to the 2-1.
In this way the division of pool money is exact and my bet pays exactly the same if the result is either 1-2 or 2-1.
That's easy to implement in totalizator systems and terminal machines.
There are some limiting cases:
If X(1-2) = 0 then I 'm supposed to have wagered 1 unit on the 1-2 and y-1 unit on the 2-1.
Similarly if X(2-1) = 0 then 1 unit on the 2-1 and y-1 unit on the 1-2.
If both X(1-2) = 0 and X(2-1) = 0, then make it 50-50.
The way things are now few people know of this trick or take the trouble to apply it.
You can do it using the running forecast price indications (if you can see them of course and accepting they are subject to some variation).
The question is, will this pay better than the quinella ;
If now everyone did the same and there are no straight forecasts but only dutched forecasts, then the forecast pool evidently becomes a quinella pool. This is a theoretical limiting circumstance.
But if what occurs is something in between, say 70% who play straight forecasts and 30% dutchers, what happens ?
How are prices generally affected and would the race courses like to include such a thing in their betting menu ?
ps: if you want a dutching calculator I give gift:
http://www.cosmicway.net/cosmicdutching.exe
If the prices are fixed I can find the proportions using a dutching calculator.
If for example I wish to bet $100 and the prices are 1-2 = 6.60, 2-1 = 9.60 then it works out bet(1-2) = $59.26, bet(2-1) = $40.74 and the likely returns are $391.11, $391.10 respectively (almost equal that is).
If the prices are not fixed and it is mutuel betting then the race course might -if they wanted to- do the dutching for me.
That means accepting a new bet symbolized as "f(1-2)-dutched" perhaps and do the following thing:
If the total money from the receipts on the undutched 1-2s is X(1-2) and the total money on the undutched 2-1s is X(2-1) and my money is Y then accept that the fraction X(1-2) / ( X(1-2) + X(2-1) ) of Y went to the 1-2 and the fraction X(2-1) / ( X(1-2) + X(2-1) ) of Y went to the 2-1.
In this way the division of pool money is exact and my bet pays exactly the same if the result is either 1-2 or 2-1.
That's easy to implement in totalizator systems and terminal machines.
There are some limiting cases:
If X(1-2) = 0 then I 'm supposed to have wagered 1 unit on the 1-2 and y-1 unit on the 2-1.
Similarly if X(2-1) = 0 then 1 unit on the 2-1 and y-1 unit on the 1-2.
If both X(1-2) = 0 and X(2-1) = 0, then make it 50-50.
The way things are now few people know of this trick or take the trouble to apply it.
You can do it using the running forecast price indications (if you can see them of course and accepting they are subject to some variation).
The question is, will this pay better than the quinella ;
If now everyone did the same and there are no straight forecasts but only dutched forecasts, then the forecast pool evidently becomes a quinella pool. This is a theoretical limiting circumstance.
But if what occurs is something in between, say 70% who play straight forecasts and 30% dutchers, what happens ?
How are prices generally affected and would the race courses like to include such a thing in their betting menu ?
ps: if you want a dutching calculator I give gift:
http://www.cosmicway.net/cosmicdutching.exe