workout time/ final fractiopn

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm finding the closer seconds-per-furlong in fastest-PP-races matchup to last workout second-per-furlong, the better a hrose does in the following race. Any comments?

[Zaf]

:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

O.K.


ZAFONIC

[raybo]

Makes sense I guess. Better workout, better race.

[raybo]

I convert the workput to an actual speed rating, adjusted for breezing, handily, distance. Then compare it to past race speed ratings to get an idea of present condition. Use my own formula for the conversion. Works well for 1st time starters, too, as an indicator of potential performance level.

[Secretariat]

I am curious on your workout to speed rating concept. Do you adjust something like -2/5th for breezing, a full second for training tracks, gate works or the dogs....How do you adjust for a variant or a track differentiation or off track? What about turf works?

For example, say a track has a 6F record of 109 and another has a 108 track record. That's a 1 second difference. Do you take 4/6th or 2/3rd of that as a track difference in your adjustments, OR do you track 4F times...

OR do you use raw times w/o variants.

I've heard some advocate a regular workout pattern rather than speed, and others look at the trainer patterns in works, but I wonder about the success of employing a speed workout approach. How have others done with this? Or do some focus on ranks of speed....Has anyone done any kind of study on quantifying workouts, specifically in 2 yo old races or first time starts....

[raybo]

RE:<I am curious on your workout to speed rating concept. Do you adjust something like -2/5th for breezing, a full second for training tracks, gate works or the dogs....How do you adjust for a variant or a track differentiation or off track? What about turf works?>

I try to keep it simple and just use them as general conditioning indicators. They are not exact of course, but neither are times.

I use the workout ranking converted to a percentage, then apply that percentage to an inverse linear scale like this:

Rank = 1 of 10, or 10%, = 75
Rank = 2 of 10, or 20%, = 70
Rank = 3 of 10, or 30%, = 65
etc,etc

Workout must be at least 4F, if breezing add 5pts.

If 4F, Handily, subtract 8 pts and you have the speed rating.

If 5F or longer, Handily, use the speed as is.

So, a 4F, 30%, Handily work would be: 65 + 5(Breezing) - 8 = 62 SR

A 5F, 30%, Breezing work would be: 65 + 5(Breezing) = 70 SR

If you want to add for 1st Lasix, add 8pts for geldings, 9 pts for mares & fillies, and 10 pts for horses and colts

I don't feel you can get too technical with workouts, times mean very little to me, and short works mean nothing at all, except for exercise. Be careful where there are only a few works at that distance that day. More than 15 or so, works ok.

I just set the scale in my spreadsheet and have the computer convert from rankings to SR's, so I see SR's instead of times. I don't worry about off tracks. If the work was at a training track I don't use it.

[raybo]

OOPs

In the 1st example I gave: 4F 30%, Handily, that should be: 65 - 8 = 57

[andicap]

By rank, I presume you mean if 60 horses worked out at 5f that day, a horse gets credit for a 1 rank if it was 6th or less (6/60 in the DRF), a 20% rank if it was 7-12, etc.

[Secretariat]

Thanks Raybo,

I appreciate your detail. Will be fun to play around with. One final question: is your final arrival workout speed comparable to the DRF SR or DRF SR+TV or a Beyer or Bris fig?

Thanks again

[raybo]

RE:<By rank, I presume you mean if 60 horses worked out at 5f that day, a horse gets credit for a 1 rank if it was 6th or less (6/60 in the DRF), a 20% rank if it was 7-12, etc.>

If a horse ranked 6 out of 60 he would be at 10% or 75. If he was 5 out of 60 he would be 8.3%(round to 8%) or 76. If he was 7 of 60 he would be 11.6%(12%) or 74. If he was 12 of 60 he would be 20% or 70.

Just divide his rank by the number of works at the distance that day and apply that resulting % to the scale. Two percentage points is worth one speed point. I round to the nearest even numbered percentage point, so, 10% is 75, 12% is 74, and 14% is73, etc.. If you wanted to get more critical 11% would be 74.5.

Just remember, when it's breezing you add 5 points to these speed numbers, and those numbers can be used as speed ratings, directly, if the work was 5F or longer. If the work was 4F or 4.5F, you first have to subtract 8 points from these numbers to get the speed rating. If the work was less than 4F, these numbers don't work. Any horse can run a good 3F work, no matter what their condition is at the time.

Like I said, don't get too technical or critical with these numbers, they are only indicators, not actual speed figures.

[raybo]

RE:<I appreciate your detail. Will be fun to play around with. One final question: is your final arrival workout speed comparable to the DRF SR or DRF SR+TV or a Beyer or Bris fig?>

These figures are comparable to Bris' speed ratings. I have used Bris' comma delimited data files in my spreadsheet since 1997 or so and would not think of switching, unless Bris messes with them and they become unuseable for some reason. I suppose other data could be used in a similar manner but the scale would almost certainly have to be modified and might not even be a linear scale, depending on which data you use. I began years ago using DRF's figures and then went to Beyers, then ITS, etc etc.. Bris' data does the job better than any I've used in the past. Of course, my program has evolved dramatically in the past several months, so other types of data might work well in the program now, too. I am making a living the way it is so, "I'm leaving well enough alone".