Your Favorite 3 Factors To Pick A Winner?

[Smarty Cide]

you know nothing about the horses. You pick up the DRF and what are the 1st three things you look at when handicapping a race?

[Overlay]

How recently/frequently the horse has been racing, how fast it has been running, and what class of competition it has been facing

[Tom]

Morning line
Beyer figs
List of top 10 jockeys

[Some_One]

If you want to pick winners, all you need to look to the fav, they are the mostly likely to win.

[LottaKash]

First - 3...

ABILITY - For me, Ability is a combination of two things, Pace & Class, they are almost inseparable to me...

FORM - I look at the running line of the horse and match it up with his Ability, and if his most current running line(s) is supported with and by the Ability part, I will go further into investigating this horse and this race...

2 Strikes and you are out with me, unless a horse has one of these: see next below

ANGLES - I have about a dozen of tried and true Angles, that by themselves, and especially in tandem with the above two components, spell a better than average chance to make a winning play(s), in my way of going...

For me, any one of these 3 components, in the right circumstance, can a win a race all by themselves, but I am very demanding and do not wager a lot, as I usually demand at least 2 of the 3 be present for any Kash-Konsiderations...

[rubicon55]

1. Race Conditions - distance, purse and restrictions.
2. Race Shape - Predicted pace for horse in question.
3. Form cycle- which relates to last race for last race pace, speed and class. Not in any particular order for this last item.

[Smarty Cide]

First - 3...

ABILITY - For me, Ability is a combination of two things, Pace & Class, they are almost inseparable to me...



can you explain pace to me... how do you tell that in drf?

[limit2]

Look bad last race.......look good 2nd or 3rd race back....last 3 racing dates.

[thaskalos]

1.) DISTANCE -- If the horse is running at the wrong distance...then everything else is irrelevant.

2.) CLASS -- The horses run differently at the different class levels.

3.) SPEED FIGURES -- The speed figures cannot be relied upon to separate the contenders in the race...but they are great at identifying the non-contenders.

[Ocala Mike]

1. CONNECTIONS (Owner/Trainer/Jockey).

2. CHANGE IN SURFACE (For example, turf to dirt).

3. SECOND TIMERS IN MAIDEN RACES (Preferably with an excuse for an out of the money finish in debut).

[formula_2002]

you know nothing about the horses. You pick up the DRF and what are the 1st three things you look at when handicapping a race?
read it for it's entermant value, then download then down load the win and exacta pools data, make the correct and and place your bet from a Key West porch overlooking the gulf

[LottaKash]

can you explain pace to me... how do you tell that in drf?

Well Smarty Cide, I can't speak for the DRF, as I am mainly a Harness Racing handicapper....Still, pace in either breed, imo, is universal in it's meaning....

With Harness we have the advantage of having 99.5% of the races run at the 1-mile distance....Given that, the pace of the race is much easier to discern as the races are very symmetrical, in that their are always 4-distinct Quarters to work with....And no unusual distance changes to consider..

The way I use pace is to convert each of the 4-quarter mile "fractions" into "Quantified Numbers"...IE:
Say the "Class Rating" of a race is 89, then in order for a horse to be able to set, maintain or overcome any pace of any race, their combination of numbers would have to reveal that a horse can be competitive in at least 2-or more of those 4 numbers, the more numbers that are at least equal to or over the CR, the better....

As in this example: CR = 89, the horse to evaluate in his last race or two has numbers of 85 91 94 98, and they represent his pace pattern in his last race or two....So you see in this case the last 3-quantified quarters for this horse were well over the Cr, but he was running a bit slower (85) than the CR89 in the 1-Qtr, but, his last three Qtrs were run over and above the 89 CR....So if a horse with this kind of pace showing, is at least equal to and more classier than the bunch he is facing today, he is "Definitely a Contender" in today's contest...Provided of course that his running line was not just a freak suck-along mile, and he "revealed much good effort" in his last running line or two, and especially so where he showed the most heart in the best and quickest parts of that race, where he produced those above average QQ's...Sometimes it is a balancing act tho...

Many people use the fractions and make velocity ratings or some such thing, but I rely mainly on the "QQ's" (Quantified Quarters) to discern the pace of a past race, and not just the raw fractions....Seeing Pace as whole numbers, side by side, as opposed to using fractional numbers keeps things simple and quick to see when comparing a horse's pace vs. the other horses pace considerations...Since I am strictly a P&P handicapper, this is a must for me, you know , for the simplicity of things..

I hope this helped a bit....:cool:

[cnollfan]

I look at the conditions first. The methods I use to handicap vary based on the race conditions.

[appistappis]

1 conditions of the race
2 angles
3 is there a false favorite

[CincyHorseplayer]

1)Class/Form-there is no class if the horse isn't in shape.

2)Running Style/Probable Pace

3)Speed

[KjcBuf]

One of the best angles that I look for is a horse that has had only one start and had a very slow/bad start but otherwise ran a decent race with comparable Beyer figs.

Very often these horses have gone off at much higher odds then they deserve because of their poor placing in there only race. If these horses can correct themselves and have a good start the second time around they are big overlays and deserve a second look.

[raybo]

you know nothing about the horses. You pick up the DRF and what are the 1st three things you look at when handicapping a race?

It really depends on what you value, hitting winners or making money. The 2 aren't the same so you need to decide that going in.

If you're just there for entertainment and want to have fun and cash some tickets, then just find the 3 lowest odds horses on the tote board shortly before they enter the gate and bet all of them.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you want to make money by the end of the day, and you are just looking at the ink on the DRF, you are severely handicapped.

1. Look at the distances and surfaces the horses have been running and performing well at compared to today's race distance and surface.
2. Look at the days since their last race and any workouts since that last race and try to determine if the horse is in the race to win or just there for "race" conditioning.
3. Look at the classes the horses have been running in, and incorporate the speed figures they earned in those, find the ones who have had good speed figures in classes similar or better than today's class.

Combine all 3 of those and find the top 2 or 3 horses that have the best combinations and bet the one or ones that will pay better than even money (if 1 horse then >=1/1, if 2 horses then >=8/5, if 3 horses then >=5/2)

This "money" method is severely lacking, but is as good or better than what most of the public is doing and that is the key to making money long term, beat the public.

Later get a good handicapping program, or design your own, and develop your own ratings/rankings, things that the public doesn't bet to death.

[taxicab]

Getting a good "read" on the horse is very important.
In other words, knowing what the horse you are looking at is capable of.
If you have a pretty good take on what the horse can and can't do, then you can decide if he/she is a proper fit for the race.

[Smarty Cide]

It really depends on what you value, hitting winners or making money. The 2 aren't the same so you need to decide that going in.

If you're just there for entertainment and want to have fun and cash some tickets, then just find the 3 lowest odds horses on the tote board shortly before they enter the gate and bet all of them.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you want to make money by the end of the day, and you are just looking at the ink on the DRF, you are severely handicapped.

1. Look at the distances and surfaces the horses have been running and performing well at compared to today's race distance and surface.
2. Look at the days since their last race and any workouts since that last race and try to determine if the horse is in the race to win or just there for "race" conditioning.
3. Look at the classes the horses have been running in, and incorporate the speed figures they earned in those, find the ones who have had good speed figures in classes similar or better than today's class.

Combine all 3 of those and find the top 2 or 3 horses that have the best combinations and bet the one or ones that will pay better than even money (if 1 horse then >=1/1, if 2 horses then >=8/5, if 3 horses then >=5/2)

This "money" method is severely lacking, but is as good or better than what most of the public is doing and that is the key to making money long term, beat the public.

Later get a good handicapping program, or design your own, and develop your own ratings/rankings, things that the public doesn't bet to death.


can someone explain reading into the workouts. what are you looking for? what makes a good workout from a bad?

[PhantomOnTour]

1) George
2) Weaver
3) duh!!!


But seriously, the simplified version of what I do is try to locate the fastest runner in the field and then determine if it's in good condition/form and if it will be helped/hindered by the expected race flow.

[taxicab]

can someone explain reading into the workouts. what are you looking for? what makes a good workout from a bad?


It's tricky.
The best way to evaluate workouts is to know barn tendencies in the morning.
For example, Jerry Hollendorfer doesn't like working his horses fast.
He loves slow 4f works.
Some barns are quite the opposite.
I don't think I would ever play a Bruce Headley horse who came into a race off a slow work, unless it's a big class drop (doesn't want his horse claimed).
A sure fire red flag is a bullet/very fast work with a claiming horse taking a significant class drop.......the "please claim me work".

[raybo]

can someone explain reading into the workouts. what are you looking for? what makes a good workout from a bad?

I don't worry much about "good" or "bad" workouts, a workout is a workout. Generally a longer workout is an indication that the trainer is trying to develop stamina prepping for a longer distance or a better finishing run, a shorter workout can be just a warmup/exercise or an early speed conditioning exercise. The fact that the horse has worked since its last race generally means the horse is not coming into today's race "cold", and that is what I am mainly concerned with.

Some trainers never work a horse fast, but some do. Again generally, a fast workout infers that the trainer is trying to improve a horse's condition, early or late, or he is unsure where the horse is at in his cycle and wants to find out by working fast. A "bullet" work doesn't always mean the horse is in top form, so take them with a grain of salt.

I just like to see exercise between races, and pattern to their training. If a horse has no work showing and is coming back in a few days (less than 14 generally) and is in a class equal to or higher than its last race, watch out for this horse. If a horse has been off a while and has no works, I will downgrade its form. Of course, all works are not published so that is an unknown you have to deal with.

[PhantomOnTour]

All that most of us can do with works is see if the horse has been getting regular conditioning (evenly spaced works)...and nothing more.
We may like to see some long slow works for a stretchout runner or layoff runner...but...
Unless you are there or are getting very good clocker reports, you have no clue how that workout time was achieved.
slow early-fast late? fast early-slow late? evenly?...who knows.

That's why when a fellow like Lamboguy posts some info regarding debut runners or lightly raced runners I pay attention....because he usually has watched the horse work firsthand.

[raybo]

All that most of us can do with works is see if the horse has been getting regular conditioning (evenly spaced works)...and nothing more.
We may like to see some long slow works for a stretchout runner or layoff runner...but...
Unless you are there or are getting very good clocker reports, you have no clue how that workout time was achieved.
slow early-fast late? fast early-slow late? evenly?...who knows.

That's why when a fellow like Lamboguy posts some info regarding debut runners or lightly raced runners I pay attention....because he usually has watched the horse work firsthand.

I agree, if a workout appears to have a definite purpose, directly regarding today's race, then I take it for that. Otherwise its just exercise.

[cutchemist42]

It really depends on what you value, hitting winners or making money. The 2 aren't the same so you need to decide that going in.

If you're just there for entertainment and want to have fun and cash some tickets, then just find the 3 lowest odds horses on the tote board shortly before they enter the gate and bet all of them.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you want to make money by the end of the day, and you are just looking at the ink on the DRF, you are severely handicapped.

1. Look at the distances and surfaces the horses have been running and performing well at compared to today's race distance and surface.
2. Look at the days since their last race and any workouts since that last race and try to determine if the horse is in the race to win or just there for "race" conditioning.
3. Look at the classes the horses have been running in, and incorporate the speed figures they earned in those, find the ones who have had good speed figures in classes similar or better than today's class.

Combine all 3 of those and find the top 2 or 3 horses that have the best combinations and bet the one or ones that will pay better than even money (if 1 horse then >=1/1, if 2 horses then >=8/5, if 3 horses then >=5/2)

This "money" method is severely lacking, but is as good or better than what most of the public is doing and that is the key to making money long term, beat the public.

Later get a good handicapping program, or design your own, and develop your own ratings/rankings, things that the public doesn't bet to death.

What factors do you use to discern if a race is being used as a conditioner and a not a true winning mindset?

[riskman]

Handicapping Factors:
•
Suitability to distance
•
Suitability to surface
•
Current form
•
Class level
•
Speed
•
Jockey and trainer

Then look at the Pace Scenario:
•Will the horse’s running style be
helped or hurt by the probable pace?
•
Will early runners (E, EP) be able to
hold on down the stretch?
•
Will late runners (P, S) be able to
catch the early horses in the stretch
run?

Use Pace Figures for this, not DRF produced.Pace and Race shape is a large part of my handicapping. Unfortunately, the pace picture can get muddled as soon as the gate opens.

That is basic, if you can nail it down to three, more power to you.

[taxicab]

@ Smarty Cide.
Back to your question about reading into workouts.
In the first race today at OP, the #9 Lico was just claimed for 7500 from Cody Autrey.
The new barn (Chris Richard) sat Lico in the barn for 14 days, then worked him in 47.4.
The 47.4 was the second fastest out of 71 turned in that morning.
This work was the classic "claim me" work.
The horse was bet all the way down to Even money in an 11 horse field.
He was done on the turn and ran 7th.
This was a case in point where a workout could of been read into in a negative way.

[raybo]

What factors do you use to discern if a race is being used as a conditioner and a not a true winning mindset?

I look at all past races, starting with the most distant and proceeding through the most recent. What did each horse lack in each race? Did the trainer address that weakness either in the next race or two, or in workouts? Did the horse show that improvement in the next race? I go though all those past races and workouts and determine whether the horse is in today's race for further strengthening of it's weakness in the last race (a conditioning race), or were its weaknesses addressed in it's last race or subsequent workouts (a "money" race)?

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Depends on the type of race.

For maiden races and younger horses:

1. Connections
2. Breeding
3. Tote action

For older horses with more starts, it's tougher:

1. Form
2. Ability/Class
3. Projected pace and trip
3a. Tote action

[1GCFAN]

Form cycle
Connections (try to avoid super trainers)
Pedigree

[dirty moose]

Handicapping Factors:
•
Suitability to distance
•
Suitability to surface
•
Current form
•
Class level
•
Speed
•
Jockey and trainer

Then look at the Pace Scenario:
•Will the horse’s running style be
helped or hurt by the probable pace?
•
Will early runners (E, EP) be able to
hold on down the stretch?
•
Will late runners (P, S) be able to
catch the early horses in the stretch
run?

Use Pace Figures for this, not DRF produced.Pace and Race shape is a large part of my handicapping. Unfortunately, the pace picture can get muddled as soon as the gate opens.

That is basic, if you can nail it down to three, more power to you.

Can I favorite this post.
If you do this and have any form of money management (which I have zero of :confused:) you should catch some winners.

[Viruss]

Why do horses on the Eastern half of the U.S. do Breezing works?

While the Western side use hand ridden works.

I know that Breezing works at about 12sec per furlong are good but not sure

how to tell about the hand ridden works. Can any one enlighten me?

Earl J

[raybo]

Why do horses on the Eastern half of the U.S. do Breezing works?

While the Western side use hand ridden works.

I know that Breezing works at about 12sec per furlong are good but not sure

how to tell about the hand ridden works. Can any one enlighten me?

Earl J

"Handily" means the horse was being urged by the rider, "breezing" means there was little or no urging by the rider. A breezing work, in the same time as handily work, is more impressive as the horse is moving in a relaxed manner, while in a handily work the horse is not as relaxed and is being urged to work harder.

I was not aware, in my 35 years of handicapping, that the eastern part of the US work breezing and the western part work handily. Is that just your opinion or do you have supporting evidence? My experience tells me that breezing works outnumber handily works by a very large margin, regardless of the area of the country.

[Delta Cone]

Take a look at the DRF work tab for SA or GG. You will find that 99% of all works are listed as H.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think the thread starter was looking for a more simpler answer.Good answers here but maybe he was weighing the answers for his own database.What are the 3 best things you can discern from the DRF?If I could be permitted to change it up a little I would ask what are the 3 top things in your opinion that decide the outcome of a race?

I've already added mine but will say that what I handwring about the most is deciding where a horse is at in it's form cycle vs odds as most important.

[raybo]

Take a look at the DRF work tab for SA or GG. You will find that 99% of all works are listed as H.

Yeah, I see what you mean. I don't play Cali tracks except the bigger stakes races so had not noticed the "H" works as being so plentiful. When he said the eastern "half" versus the western "half" of the country, I wasn't thinking just California tracks. All the tracks I play regularly (midwest/ southwest/ a few eastern) show very few handily works versus breezing works.

Most of the times for the handily works at SA and GG that I just now looked at seem to be breezing times rather than handily times. Maybe they rate them differently at those 2 tracks?

[Some_One]

I think the thread starter was looking for a more simpler answer.Good answers here but maybe he was weighing the answers for his own database.What are the 3 best things you can discern from the DRF?If I could be permitted to change it up a little I would ask what are the 3 top things in your opinion that decide the outcome of a race?

I've already added mine but will say that what I handwring about the most is deciding where a horse is at in it's form cycle vs odds as most important.

Well I still haven't seen an answer the can top mine, I doubt with all these factors that they'll pick more winners then blindly backing the fav.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Well I still haven't seen an answer the can top mine, I doubt with all these factors that they'll pick more winners then blindly backing the fav.

That's the point.Get a comparable win % without betting favorites.Start passing races and it gets easier.Salvation lies without.

[Robert Goren]

1.Today's bias if there is one
2. Class of the race.. Can be tricky.
3. Trainer... The key that opens the door.

[ten2oneormore]

Why do horses on the Eastern half of the U.S. do Breezing works?

While the Western side use hand ridden works.

I know that Breezing works at about 12sec per furlong are good but not sure

how to tell about the hand ridden works. Can any one enlighten me?

Earl J


They flip flop in California.What is Breezing in NY is Handily in Cali and what is Handily in NY is Breezing in Cali.It is also the case with a few other tracks up North but not sure of all them.If you look at pps and 99% are H then you can safely assume it is flipped.

[Robert Goren]

Take a look at the DRF work tab for SA or GG. You will find that 99% of all works are listed as H.I don't think there is an actual difference in the way the horse work between the east and the west. I think it is the way the clockers look at a WO. I notice this when I first started in the 1960s, but I am pretty sure it goes back further. I am guessing it has to do with different past performance publishers back in the day.

[BlueChip@DRF]

- Surface
- Distance
- Connections

[pondman]

you know nothing about the horses. You pick up the DRF and what are the 1st three things you look at when handicapping a race?

Where has it been running?
What level has it been running?
Not disclosing the 3rd.

[raybo]

you know nothing about the horses. You pick up the DRF and what are the 1st three things you look at when handicapping a race?

Well, with all those answers, does that make your job any easier? Basically, it boils down to doing your own work and finding out what works, for you. There is no "one size fits all" in racing, and never will be. That's why some of us make money and the others don't, we do our own work, over years of study and trial and error.

[Some_One]

Well, with all those answers, does that make your job any easier? Basically, it boils down to doing your own work and finding out what works, for you. There is no "one size fits all" in racing, and never will be. That's why some of us make money and the others don't, we do our own work, over years of study and trial and error.

Good answer, while it does talk about profit which is a whole different game then just picking winners. And of course if you want to have any chance of finding something profitable long term, put down the form, or find a way to use it like no one described in the 30 responses to this post.

[Track Phantom]

When I first look at a race, I try hard not to "handicap" right away (i.e. dig into each horse). Instead, I try to go from top to bottom and back from bottom to top to try and just get a feel for the runners.

After that, depending on the race type, I will usually start drilling down into trainer patterns (via DRF Formulator). I'm always looking for similar patterns.

I'll then try to conceptualize how the race will be run and looking more for hidden pace than obvious pace (i.e lone front runner, etc). In my opinion, obvious pace is a bad bet. It rarely ever unfolds the way it looks on paper as trainer, riders adjust their style to the race shape. However, when there is hidden pace (rail runner who broke slow in last and is a sprinter stretching out, or cheap speed horse who will get a lonely lead) or something that doesn't jump out, I'll focus on that.

I do look a lot at recent trips and look for non-obvious trouble (a runner pinned on the rail, etc).

[raybo]

Good answer, while it does talk about profit which is a whole different game then just picking winners. And of course if you want to have any chance of finding something profitable long term, put down the form, or find a way to use it like no one described in the 30 responses to this post.

Yeah, I try to steer people away from the mindset of "picking winners" and toward "making profit". Our game needs growing and that means we need players's bankrolls to last longer so they will stick around and maybe even spread the word to friends. The game is much more enjoyable when you win some bucks now and then.

[lamboguy]

if i bet a horse the last time out and he ran in the back of the pack, i like to double up on him the next time out.