Exacta Bet Question

[Segwin]

When someone says that they bet 12/1234 for 12 dollars does that mean? I don't understand the 12/. If you key that then why have /12???

I must be missing something. :bang:

What is the general consensus on the best way to bet the Exacta.

Thanks all.

[dirty moose]

When someone says that they bet 12/1234 for 12 dollars does that mean? I don't understand the 12/. If you key that then why have /12???

I must be missing something. :bang:

What is the general consensus on the best way to bet the Exacta.

Thanks all.

Hey Seg, That is a $2 bet that totals $12. $2 for each combo. So 1,2 with the 1,2,3,4.
It can finish
1,2 > 1,3 > 1,4
2,1 > 2,3 > 2,4
These are the only ways you can win the exacta bet.
$2 for each combo.

The first 1,2 is the Win slot and the second 1,2 is the place slot. Win; 1,2 Place; 1,2,3,4

[Dark Horse]

What is the general consensus on the best way to bet the Exacta.


For a strong handicapper, who understands value, I would say that the 3 horse exacta box is generally the most lucrative. That does mean that your payout needs to be greater than 6/1, so the idea is to regularly hit exactas that pay in the 50/1 range. Can't do that without longshots, obviously.

[Segwin]

Thanks guys, appreciate that.

[therussmeister]

For a strong handicapper, who understands value, I would say that the 3 horse exacta box is generally the most lucrative. That does mean that your payout needs to be greater than 6/1, so the idea is to regularly hit exactas that pay in the 50/1 range. Can't do that without longshots, obviously.
I think if someone is boxing three horses more than once in a blue moon, he shouldn't consider himself a strong handicapper.

[Valuist]

When someone says that they bet 12/1234 for 12 dollars does that mean? I don't understand the 12/. If you key that then why have /12???

I must be missing something. :bang:

What is the general consensus on the best way to bet the Exacta.

Thanks all.

There's no one answer. Every race is different. But generally speaking, you get your best value with the big priced horses in the 2nd slot. Many people box tickets, so longshots are often overbet in the win portion of exactas. As for the number of tickets to use, there's no one answer.

I'm not a big fan of boxes, with one exception; when my only real opinions are of a negative variety on the betting favorites. If I'm right and they are way overbet, I want to get paid. In those situations, I will definitely increase the number of tickets.

[Ocala Mike]

I'm not a big fan of boxes



Amen to that. The old racetrack saying was "a box is what they put you in when you croak."

[Dark Horse]

I think if someone is boxing three horses more than once in a blue moon, he shouldn't consider himself a strong handicapper.

That would depend on the payout and win percentage, wouldn't it?

[JohnGalt1]

Isn't a trifecta bet of ABC/ABCD/ABCDEF also a box bet?

Or a super of ABC/ABCDE/ABCDEF/ABCDEFG also a box bet?

What's the difference if ABC is an exacta box or the to of a tri or super?

I don't have one way of playing exactas, but if ANY bet structure is profitable for someone it's a good bet.

I sit with people who box 3 horse exactas and when I tell them I bet 2 horses to win in a race they tell me only one can win. Of course I remind them that if they win their exacta 5 bets lost.

Their argument is that it was one 12 dollar wager (#?).

[therussmeister]

That would depend on the payout and win percentage, wouldn't it?
Not exclusively. My point is a solid handicapper might realize one of those three horses had a poor chance of winning, and would not box them. Or alternatively one might have a poor chance of finishing second, but would either win or slip back to third or worse.

Whilst the bettor boxing three horses might be winning a lot of money, a better handicapper might get a better ROI betting only four combinations.

[limit2]

I have not done an extensive study of exacta wagering and results with my system to the point I consider myself skilled at it. I am currently experimenting on paper with: (1) My 2 longshots in the top hole and (2) 4 horses represented by the lowest ML's available. All at $1 tickets initially and stopping play for the day at the first winner. The expectation is a hit ratio of 2% (2 out of 100 tickets) with an average $2 mutual of $200.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If you have a win % of 25-30% but a win/place% of 47% and are betting horses at an average mutual of 5-1 there's nothing wrong with boxing exactas.I know because this is me and you turn this bet into a high cash,high return bet instead of some risky,losing streak oriented one.

[Track Collector]

Isn't a trifecta bet of ABC/ABCD/ABCDEF also a box bet?

Or a super of ABC/ABCDE/ABCDEF/ABCDEFG also a box bet?



Your above wagers are correctly termed a "part wheel".

In a "box" wager all the horses (by the player's directive) are given the same opportunity to finish in each and every one of the involved finish positions. An example of a "box" for your trifecta above would be ABC/ABC/ABC or ABCDEF/ABCDEF/ABCDEF. Your trifecta selection above is not a "box" because the DEF horses are excluded from winning, and the EF horses are excluded from coming in 1st and 2nd.

While it might be justified and called for once and a while, boxing of too many horses is "in general" not a good thing, as it tends to indicate the lack of handicapping conviction, and almost always involves betting more combinations than the race logically calls for.

Pardon the indulgence, but the following ties in nicely with regard to betting too many combinations.

From my days many years ago as a Sartin Methodology user, one of the articles from their user group magazine called the "Follow Up" had the excellent title of "How is Your Losing Percentage?". The premise of the article was that so many folks play too many combinations because they have the fear of losing. An example is a player who hits a $2 exacta paying $92 (which is a 45-1 return). If the player had various combinations in play that cost $45 total, they turned their exacta into a 1-1 return, which is the same return as betting $45 on an even money favorite! The author suggested that by exhibiting some conviction and wagering on a far less number of combinations, the player would lose more often, but be rewarded handsomely when they were right, thus showing more profit/dollars to their bottom line.


...

[funnsss1]

I love the 3 horse exactor box especially when theres a heavy favorite that I don't like and my 3 choices are 6 to 1 or better.Have cashed some very large tickets doing this but have also had some dry spells with it also.I also like the 4 horse exactor box without the favorite or keying a horse at 10 to 1 or better on top with the field

[Bettowin]

Sounds simple to us who play all the time but tonight I found out communication is the key;) The better half wins the first two bets and doubles her roll to forty bucks. Then decides to take a shot with what I thought was two $1 exactas such as 123/9 and 2/139 I say OK this is how you bet it. No problem until it comes in 9-2-3 with the $1 exacta paying $200. Cashing out and finds out no winner! Now its my problem. She meant to box the 1239 and I should have know that? Not only the exacta but the tri and it paid over 1K for 50 cents.

Pay attention guys:)

PS- My roll for the night was SUBSTANTIALLY larger and lost:)

[Dark Horse]

Not exclusively. My point is a solid handicapper might realize one of those three horses had a poor chance of winning, and would not box them. Or alternatively one might have a poor chance of finishing second, but would either win or slip back to third or worse.

Whilst the bettor boxing three horses might be winning a lot of money, a better handicapper might get a better ROI betting only four combinations.

It just changes the proposition. If you bet four combinations instead of six, your payout needs to exceed 4/1 rather than 6/1.

I think we're saying the same thing. With a couple of longshots and a lukewarm favorite on the ticket, you'd be crazy to cut from 6 to 4. Obviously those opportunities are harder to find. If we lower the bar then it becomes better to play only four combinations.

[Robert Fischer]

This isn't exactly the 'fun' answer, but I've found that in general, betting your opinion is the most efficient way to play exactas.

basic example scenario:
Your contenders = 2,5,8
You think 2 or 5 could win the race.
and that 8 looks like a solid 3rd best.

a :2::5::8: exacta box = $6

or an exacta :2::5: with :2::5::8: = $4

By betting your opinion, you not only got a better bet in, but you saved $2 (or 1/3 of the cost).
Or for every $12 you get an extra wager in by betting your opinion.

[burnsy]

The "best" way to bet an exacta is to be cashing on it after the race without spending a fortune to cover. This is why I love exactas.....low risk....high return. For me, my approach is to key ONE horse never two like in the example. I bet the exacta when I strongly like one horse that is NOT the favorite and I can narrow the "contenders" down to 3 horses. My main bet is usually a key box, A/ B, C....I refuse to be "photo'd" out of an exacta, plus I always bet my A horse to win too. I'm not going to watch my horse win and get nothing back. Like I said before the "best" exacta is one that you get to cash so I don't restrict myself to just key boxes.....on occasion I will bet a 3 horse box if the prices on TWO of my choices are in the double digits or if I think the race is evenly matched. I use the 3 horse box in large fields and grass races where there is usually a large field and many times, live long shots. You don't want to "have" two horses on your ticket...watch them come in and pay over a hundred in the exacta and get nothing....its like a punch in the gut....been there one too many times, so in that case I will box all 3. I'm not a "best way" kind of guy, I like to take that "particular situation" case by case and work it to MY advantage. I realize I'm always gambling and might lose........but I always try to minimize the "gamble" in my favor without breaking the bank covering too much. If you can't narrow it down to 3 horses...why bet it?

[Valuist]

Amen to that. The old racetrack saying was "a box is what they put you in when you croak."

But, that doesn't mean there aren't times where they can be properly used; i.e. the strong negative opinion on the betting favorites but no real strong opinions on the secondary contenders. But I think casual players make the mistake of using boxes too often.

[Valuist]

One other point; how often have you handicapped a race and you feel only two horses can realistically win? Usually one of them wins but the other ends up off the board. TRYING to win costs them a placing. 2-1 shot A duels and puts away 2-1 shot B, who tires to run 5th while an 18-1 shot clunks up for a non threatening 2nd. And sure enough, some idiot in the grandstand will be swearing that the fix was in.....the track and trainers and jocks are out to get him :rolleyes: . This scenario happens every day.

[Robert Fischer]

One other point; how often have you handicapped a race and you feel only two horses can realistically win? Usually one of them wins but the other ends up off the board. TRYING to win costs them a placing. 2-1 shot A duels and puts away 2-1 shot B, who tires to run 5th while an 18-1 shot clunks up for a non threatening 2nd. And sure enough, some idiot in the grandstand will be swearing that the fix was in.....the track and trainers and jocks are out to get him :rolleyes: . This scenario happens every day.

Yea.
Figuring out, and identifying the pace and trips and how that is going to affect the horses underneath in a "vertical exotic" can get pretty crazy.
That is whole advanced thing in and of itself.

There's probably something there, where if you did a pretty good job with it, and were able to at least differentiate between straight-forward races and vertical-chaos races, that it may give you a few plays at an advantage over the public.

[Valuist]

Another simple strategy: race must have at least 9 betting interests. Start looking at all the horses that are at least 15-1 or higher. Can you make a case for any of them (or multiple horses) to be close at the finish? Then key them underneath.

[AndyC]

Another simple strategy: race must have at least 9 betting interests. Start looking at all the horses that are at least 15-1 or higher. Can you make a case for any of them (or multiple horses) to be close at the finish? Then key them underneath.


I have found that just as longshots are way overplayed in the place and show pools they are also overplayed in the 2nd and 3rd spots on exactas and trifectas.

[Valuist]

I have found that just as longshots are way overplayed in the place and show pools they are also overplayed in the 2nd and 3rd spots on exactas and trifectas.

I would disagree with that. Longshots are overbet in the win spot in exotics and favorites are overbet in the underneath slots, due to all the boxing of tickets.

[burnsy]

Another simple strategy: race must have at least 9 betting interests. Start looking at all the horses that are at least 15-1 or higher. Can you make a case for any of them (or multiple horses) to be close at the finish? Then key them underneath.

Those are the kinds I key both ways, usually with the more obvious other two. I narrow it down to ONE horse and I'll do it if they are 5-1 or higher. One of my rules is to never, ever box the two choices. Let someone else cash that. That's one of the reasons I like key boxes...I'll try to split the favorites and races work like that quite often. When a horse like that does win, its a banner day. Even in second its ok. I should of said that odds pretty much dictate every bet I make. People spend so much time on the "obvious " horses when betting exactas finding that odd ball "speed" or "suck up" horse makes all the difference in the world. Races with 9 horses or more don't come out with the first two choices in the exacta that often. Something I've been trying to milk forever. Doesn't always work out....:confused: , but at least when I hit, its good. A whole meet for me is usually determined by how many exactas I hit unless I get lucky and hit a really nice pick. I don't have a clue about triples or supers because I never play them.

[traynor]

Anyone have (and willing to post) the formulas for dutching and reverse-dutching exactas? Not computer formulas (I have those) but something easy enough for P&P handicappers to use?

[HUSKER55]

Probability
H1 .15
H2 .25
Total .40

amount to wager 10.00
H1 .15/.40 *10 = 3.75
H2 .25/.40 *10 = 6.25

[Segwin]

Are there any PDFs out there that discuss all the betting options, with examples, for the novice?

Thanks again for the discussion - it has been very helpful.

[AndyC]

I would disagree with that. Longshots are overbet in the win spot in exotics and favorites are overbet in the underneath slots, due to all the boxing of tickets.

I embraced your belief until I went through years of data.

[thaskalos]

I would disagree with that. Longshots are overbet in the win spot in exotics and favorites are overbet in the underneath slots, due to all the boxing of tickets.
Imo...longshots are not overbet in the win slot of the vertical exotics. Boxing horses is not as popular with the serious bettors as you seem to think.

When the serious bettor likes a longshot to win...he will bet it to win. He won't risk suffering the indignity of watching his longshot win while he misses in the exotic. The popular bet is to bet the longshot to win...and then use it in the second slot in the exacta...as a hedge.

[Stillriledup]

Imo...longshots are not overbet in the win slot of the vertical exotics. Boxing horses is not as popular with the serious bettors as you seem to think.

When the serious bettor likes a longshot to win...he will bet it to win. He won't risk suffering the indignity of watching his longshot win while he misses in the exotic. The popular bet is to bet the longshot to win...and then use it in the second slot in the exacta...as a hedge.

What about "connector" exactas? Like, for example, if two horses are coming out of the same "key" race yet one horse might be even money and the other one will be 8-1, but if the 8-1 wins and the even money gets 2nd, that combo might be "overbet" per se...in other words, the 8-1 win price will be better value...i notice that if you like 2 horses out of the same race, you will get more value in the win pool.

[Robert Fischer]

In general, longshots are a poor value relative to favorites in pretty much every wager.

However, when you have accurate insight(that the public does not have) into why a specific longshot is an overlay, then longshots can provide value in the vertical exotics.