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View Full Version : Top Horse Analytics: 02/10/2014 AQU


Augenj
02-10-2014, 09:20 AM
Race predictions will be posted here after early scratches and late scratches if possible.

Results will be posted after race charts become available.

Augenj
02-10-2014, 09:24 AM
** Scratches Not Processed **

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Late Scratches (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Race Results (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)

02/10/14, AQU, Race 1, 12.25 ET
1M [Inner Dirt] 1.35.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $36,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3), Pick 5 Races (1-5) - Double
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Star Empress [1-1] Rice T B / Jacobson David
096.4177 :5: Sundae School [2-1] Castro E / Terranova. II John P.
093.4782 :1: Legally Bay [6-1] Arroyo A S / Coffey Marialice
093.1299 :3: Tizallheart [10-1] Franco M / Metivier Richard
092.6446 4 Boxford Belle [12-1] Velasquez C H / Allard Edward T.
091.1315 2 Iratinelexburance [15-1] Luzzi M J / Schosberg Richard E.

02/10/14, AQU, Race 2, 12.54 ET
6F [Inner Dirt] 1.08.00 CLAIMING. Purse $29,000
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Newton Crescent [5/2] Rice T B / Jacobson David
097.4191 :4: Majestic Number [8/5] Esquivel E / DiPrima Gregory
096.2244 :1: Superiority [6-1] DeCarlo C P / Persaud Randi
095.2783 :5: Money Only [3-1] Luzzi M J / Barbara Robert
093.8108 3 Giant Indian [10-1] Velasquez C H / Englehart Chris J.
089.6180 7 Powhatan County [20-1] Rodriguez G / Gutierrez Luis
088.8411 6 Buddy Red [30-1] Arroyo A S / Jones Eduardo E.

02/10/14, AQU, Race 3, 1.23 ET
1M [Inner Dirt] 1.35.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $31,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: Sky Lassie [7/5] Rice T B / Contessa Gary C.
097.8190 :6: Gingee [5/2] Garcia W A / DiSanto Glenn B.
097.3872 :4: Left Uppercut [10-1] Ortiz J L / Matties Gregg M.
097.3574 :1: Locks of Gold [5-1] Arroyo A S / Quartarolo Anthony T.
096.5604 5 Explosive Smile [6-1] Worrie A S / Persaud Randi
095.9753 3 Bebes Passion [12-1] Zayas J / Goberdhan Chandradat
091.7017 2 Patriot's Jewel [50-1] Valentin F / Granville Pedro

02/10/14, AQU, Race 4, 1.52 ET
6F [Inner Dirt] 1.08.00 ALLOWANCE. Purse $52,000
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) - Pick 6 Races (4-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: Henry's Gal [8/5] Velasquez C H / Jacobson David
096.6727 :1: Cryptic Comet [8-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Terranova. II John P.
094.3766 :6: Bella the Bandit [2-1] Rice T B / Rice Linda
093.5493 :3: Manhattan Gin [6-1] Franco M / Brown Bruce R.
093.2618 2 Longride to Wisdom [8-1] Garcia W A / Contessa Gary C.
091.0927 5 Jen's Miracle [10-1] Maragh R / Schettino Dominick
087.5199 4 Possetivevibration [20-1] Esquivel E / Aquilino Joseph

02/10/14, AQU, Race 5, 2.21 ET
6F [Inner Dirt] 1.08.00 CLAIMING. Purse $23,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Pick 3 Races (5-7), Grand Slam Races (5-8) - Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1a: Foggy Road [2-1] Rice T B / Rice Linda
098.9479 :1: Mr. Style [2-1] Maragh R / Rice Linda
098.4253 :7: Economic Forecast [10-1] Lezcano A / D'Alessandro Ralph
097.7870 :9: Rift [5/2] McCarthy T / Jacobson David
097.3997 3 Fairy Snow [15-1] Davis K / Persaud Randi
094.4421 6 M P Ruckus [8-1] Morales P / Barker Edward R.
093.0942 5 Lucci the Lion [5-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / DiPrima Gregory
091.5416 2 Little Wyatt [10-1] Velasquez C H / Kenneally Eddie
089.3792 8 Always for You [30-1] Sone J / Gutierrez Luis
089.3701 4 Tiger Willie [12-1] Esquivel E / Shivmangal Doodnauth

02/10/14, AQU, Race 6, 2.50 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Dirt] 1.41.00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $55,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: Sir Maurice [5/2] Lopez C C / Scott Phillip
098.6604 :2: Ronnie's Whey [7/2] Luzzi M J / O'Brien Leo
098.5212 :5: Privatize [3-1] Rice T B / Gyarmati Leah
097.2236 :6: Midnight Missile [5-1] Franco M / Baker Charlton
094.1455 1 Cat Man Fu [6-1] Camacho. Jr. S / Horton. Jr. Curtis
093.8047 4 Here He Fitz [10-1] Maragh R / Hertler John O.
088.9797 3 Felix [15-1] Esquivel E / Gyarmati Leah

02/10/14, AQU, Race 7, 3.19 ET
6F [Inner Dirt] 1.08.00 ALLOWANCE. Purse $52,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :9: Ed's Magic [3-1] Ortiz J L / Englehart Jeremiah C.
099.8097 :2: Billy the Bull [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Kenneally Eddie
099.6468 :8: Western Tryst [4-1] Arroyo A S / Rodriguez Rudy R.
098.2458 :6: Half Nelson [4-1] Maragh R / Albertrani Thomas
097.6870 4 Here Comes Tommy [12-1] Luzzi M J / Morrison John
096.5566 3 Sneaky Freud [15-1] Rodriguez G / Acquilano James S.
093.5459 5 Trackmens Star [50-1] Camacho. Jr. S / Pringle Edmund
092.2594 1 Jack's R Wild [20-1] Davis K / Davis Robbie G.
090.7401 7 Piscesbymoonlight [8-1] Franco M / Brown Bruce R.

02/10/14, AQU, Race 8, 3.48 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Dirt] 1.41.00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $59,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Street Lord [4-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Baker Charlton
099.7362 :10: Prohibition [3-1] Elliott S / Lynch Cathal A.
096.9518 :9: Zetterholm [5-1] Velasquez C H / Nevin Michelle
096.2119 :5: Sinistra [15-1] Montanez R / Grusmark Karl M.
094.8149 6 Go Get the Basil [7/2] Ortiz J L / Violette. Jr. Richard
094.4679 2 Ghostly Vision [10-1] Arroyo A S / Schettino Dominick
093.8433 7 Readytodefer [8-1] Lopez C C / Levine Bruce N.
092.9843 1 Seventy Six [15-1] Garcia W A / DeMola Richard
092.7684 8 Tug of War [20-1] McCarthy T / Nevin Michelle
091.5063 3 Towering Moon [20-1] Castellano. Jr. A / Brown Bruce R.

02/10/14, AQU, Race 9, 4.17 ET
6F [Inner Dirt] 1.08.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $20,000

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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Rontos' Code [3-1] Maragh R / Maragh Aubrey A.
096.8563 :1: My Jordy [5-1] Camacho. Jr. S / Peebles Matthew
096.6164 :6: Moonlite Encounter [6-1] Esquivel E / Shivmangal Doodnauth
095.1758 :9: Flashy Ross [8-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Manning Robert E.
094.7950 2 Prince Curlin [15-1] Garcia W A / Persaud Randi
093.3488 7 Unbridled Bear [7/2] Rice T B / Rice Linda
093.2680 8 Kissed and Missed [4-1] Mejias L / Rodriguez Rudy R.
092.7172 5 Consoles Gotta Go [12-1] Rodriguez G / Levine Bruce N.
090.7215 3 Go to the Net [20-1] Beato I / Sciacca Gary

Augenj
02-10-2014, 06:40 PM
:ThmbUp:

02/10/14, AQU, Race 1, 12.25 ET
100.0000 :6: Star Empress [1-1] 1st - 2.90 2.30 2.10
096.4177 :5: Sundae School [2-1] 3rd - 2.10
093.4782 :1: Legally Bay [6-1]
093.1299 :3: Tizallheart [10-1] 2nd - 4.90 2.50

02/10/14, AQU, Race 2, 12.54 ET
100.0000 :2: Newton Crescent [5/2] 1st - 6.60 4.00 2.70
097.4191 :4: Majestic Number [8/5] 3rd - 2.50
096.2244 :1: Superiority [6-1]
095.2783 :5: Money Only [3-1] 2nd - 4.50 3.20

02/10/14, AQU, Race 3, 1.23 ET
100.0000 :7: Sky Lassie [7/5] 3rd - 2.30
097.8190 :6: Gingee [5/2] 2nd - 3.60 2.60
097.3872 :4: Left Uppercut [10-1]
097.3574 :1: Locks of Gold [5-1]

02/10/14, AQU, Race 4, 1.52 ET
100.0000 :7: Henry's Gal [8/5] *SCR*
096.6727 :1: Cryptic Comet [8-1]
094.3766 :6: Bella the Bandit [2-1] 1st - 3.20 2.70 2.30
093.5493 :3: Manhattan Gin [6-1]

02/10/14, AQU, Race 5, 2.21 ET
100.0000 :1a: Foggy Road [2-1] 3rd - 2.10
098.9479 :1: Mr. Style [2-1] 4th - 2.10 entry
098.4253 :7: Economic Forecast [10-1]
097.7870 :9: Rift [5/2]

02/10/14, AQU, Race 6, 2.50 ET
100.0000 :7: Sir Maurice [5/2] 3rd - 2.50
098.6604 :2: Ronnie's Whey [7/2]
098.5212 :5: Privatize [3-1]
097.2236 :6: Midnight Missile [5-1]

02/10/14, AQU, Race 7, 3.19 ET
100.0000 :9: Ed's Magic [3-1] 1st - 6.60 4.50 3.40
099.8097 :2: Billy the Bull [5/2]
099.6468 :8: Western Tryst [4-1]
098.2458 :6: Half Nelson [4-1] 3rd - 3.80

02/10/14, AQU, Race 8, 3.48 ET
100.0000 :4: Street Lord [4-1] 1st - 12.60 5.70 4.00
099.7362 :10: Prohibition [3-1]
096.9518 :9: Zetterholm [5-1]
096.2119 :5: Sinistra [15-1] 3rd - 7.50

02/10/14, AQU, Race 9, 4.17 ET
100.0000 :4: Rontos' Code [3-1] 3rd - 2.30
096.8563 :1: My Jordy [5-1] 1st - 6.00 4.90 2.90
096.6164 :6: Moonlite Encounter [6-1]
095.1758 :9: Flashy Ross [8-1]

whodoyoulike
02-11-2014, 01:10 AM
I haven't been following your postings or results but, I have seen your posts in the search results listing on an almost daily basis. How have your results been so far? How do you wager on your four selections per race (is it prioritized in preference order)? Are you suggesting that one can wager and be successful on every race?

I've noticed in today's results, you've been able to identify horses going off at 2 - 1 or less odds (nothing wrong with this). Wouldn't it be better to focus on these horses and provide a probability of this horse winning, placing or showing?

Just some thoughts, I remember one of your first posts on this project. Good luck.

Augenj
02-11-2014, 09:02 AM
I haven't been following your postings or results but, I have seen your posts in the search results listing on an almost daily basis. How have your results been so far? How do you wager on your four selections per race (is it prioritized in preference order)? Are you suggesting that one can wager and be successful on every race?

I've noticed in today's results, you've been able to identify horses going off at 2 - 1 or less odds (nothing wrong with this). Wouldn't it be better to focus on these horses and provide a probability of this horse winning, placing or showing?

Just some thoughts, I remember one of your first posts on this project. Good luck.

Sorry for the wordy reply below but horse racing ain't simple. :) First, a little background.

I have six tracks that I analyze - AQU, BEL, CD, CRC, GP, SA, and soon OP. For each track, I run an analysis on a two year old data base to get parameters to apply to a one year old data base. Predictably, the win per cent and ROI fall off on the one year old data base.

However, some of the conditional factors carry forward year to year with a positive ROI. Conditional factors are used by me to select the best races to bet to win. These conditions are private for my betting purposes and my site's customers. I post all races here but don't flag the ones that have positive ROI conditions.

This is for win betting only and to get a positive ROI, it's a grind it out, disciplined, "don't miss a race" kind of thing using the same bet size. I have stats on other bets also but conditionally betting the top horse to win usually shows the most profit.

How have your results been so far?
I'm going to be posting statistics for the tracks I cover, updated weekly, in the future for both private and public races. It will demonstrate why you should not bet on every race, something that every good handicapper knows already.

How do you wager on your four selections per race (is it prioritized in preference order)?
As I mentioned in the background, I only bet to win on the top horse (100.0000). The others are rated in descending order by the program. Sometimes it does well with the vertical bets but most times it doesn't. Boxing loses a lot of money with this system over a year although I see spurts where it shows profit in the short run. There are a lot of long shot winners within these top four so you might want to include one or two of them in your own vertical bets.

Are you suggesting that one can wager and be successful on every race?
As mentioned earlier, maybe some people can but I can't find a pattern that makes profit if I bet on every race.

I've noticed in today's results, you've been able to identify horses going off at 2 - 1 or less odds (nothing wrong with this). Wouldn't it be better to focus on these horses and provide a probability of this horse winning, placing or showing?
I try not to get hooked up with the last minute, late change of odds issues. It's just too hard to bet at the last minute for me personally so I don't consider that. If you're referring to morning line odds, that's a conditional factor that I've tried in the past but not with this system. It proved to be a wash then and probably will now. In other words, odds at 2/1 or below produced the same ROI as odds above that, however you want to break out the odds.

I hope this clarifies things although sometimes my answers muddy things up. Let me know if you have any more questions and thanks for asking. It may trigger an idea that will produce a "silver bullet". :D

jrhollywood
02-11-2014, 11:37 AM
Thanks for the post, I was actually going to ask the same or similar a few days ago. I actually took your posts from mid December thru end of January, looked at the winners, looked to see what some profitable plays would be. I'm normally a pick 4 or 5 player. I did some "what if" analysis, like what if i just blindly used your top 3 or top 4 picks, would it be profitable. I mainly play Santa Anita, but didn't really work out. Would have hit some pick 5's, but not paying enough to cover all the bets. Aquaduct would have hit a few more pick 5's and actually one paid over $6 grand on a ticket using your top 3, so definitely profitable.

Keep up the good work, the last 2 weeks I've been using your pics more as a part of my own consensus haha. I handicap myself and make my pics usually a day or 2 before the races, I've started looking at Time Form's picks, and then also your picks a few hours before the races. Where we all agree, great. Where there's differences, thats where I dig in a bit more and go okay, why'd i pick the horses i like that they didn't and is there enough reason to change or not change. Definitely more work than just blindly betting top 3 of your picks each race, at the same time is more rewarding to put in some elbow grease. Still like everyone, I wish there was an easy "do this and get 20% return" formula that could just be applied.

Augenj
02-11-2014, 02:03 PM
Thanks for the post, I was actually going to ask the same or similar a few days ago. I actually took your posts from mid December thru end of January, looked at the winners, looked to see what some profitable plays would be. I'm normally a pick 4 or 5 player. I did some "what if" analysis, like what if i just blindly used your top 3 or top 4 picks, would it be profitable. I mainly play Santa Anita, but didn't really work out. Would have hit some pick 5's, but not paying enough to cover all the bets. Aquaduct would have hit a few more pick 5's and actually one paid over $6 grand on a ticket using your top 3, so definitely profitable.

Keep up the good work, the last 2 weeks I've been using your pics more as a part of my own consensus haha. I handicap myself and make my pics usually a day or 2 before the races, I've started looking at Time Form's picks, and then also your picks a few hours before the races. Where we all agree, great. Where there's differences, thats where I dig in a bit more and go okay, why'd i pick the horses i like that they didn't and is there enough reason to change or not change. Definitely more work than just blindly betting top 3 of your picks each race, at the same time is more rewarding to put in some elbow grease. Still like everyone, I wish there was an easy "do this and get 20% return" formula that could just be applied.
That's a great way of doing things. When I bet outside of the private races as in the Pick 3,4,5,6 races, I always use my picks along with THA's picks. If they're in agreement, I single that race if it's a Pick 6 or add another entry that I like if it's one of the other Pick races. It makes the bet amounts more reasonable. I haven't hit a Pick 6 yet but maybe lightning will strike. :)