Tap it Rich vs. Bayern - Race 7 - 2/13

[menifee]

Disregard the Robert Lewis - the real prep for the Santa Anita Derby takes place this Thursday.

Tap it Rich has so much potential if he could figure this game out. Craziest horse I've seen in some time.

[Bennie]

He was in futures pool #1 and I and I had considered using him until I read about all the problems. I read somewhere that Baffert pretty much "rebroke" the horse to try to get his head straight. He is one of the reasons I used the field in pool #2 exactas. Waiting to see if Baffert has worked any magic.

[Rex Phinney]

Disregard the Robert Lewis - the real prep for the Santa Anita Derby takes place this Thursday.

Tap it Rich has so much potential if he could figure this game out. Craziest horse I've seen in some time.

Why does everyone think Tap it rich has so much potential? Judging off what? I haven't seen him do anything against New Year's day, Candy Boy or Shared Belief to make me see all this "potential".

I love Bob Baffert as a trainer, but honestly I don't see him as the patient guy you need with a horse like Tap it Rich.

If Baffert thought the horse was ready for the big time he would have run him Saturday.

Right now Shared Belief and Candy Boy are miles ahead of anything else here in the west.

[menifee]

Why does everyone think Tap it rich has so much potential? Judging off what? I haven't seen him do anything against New Year's day, Candy Boy or Shared Belief to make me see all this "potential".

I love Bob Baffert as a trainer, but honestly I don't see him as the patient guy you need with a horse like Tap it Rich.

If Baffert thought the horse was ready for the big time he would have run him Saturday.

Right now Shared Belief and Candy Boy are miles ahead of anything else here in the west.

He beat Candy Boy by 4 on his debut. He has talent - just has head issues.

[Stillriledup]

Why does everyone think Tap it rich has so much potential? Judging off what? I haven't seen him do anything against New Year's day, Candy Boy or Shared Belief to make me see all this "potential".

I love Bob Baffert as a trainer, but honestly I don't see him as the patient guy you need with a horse like Tap it Rich.

If Baffert thought the horse was ready for the big time he would have run him Saturday.

Right now Shared Belief and Candy Boy are miles ahead of anything else here in the west.

Oct 12th, he was off 5 slow, was in the middle of the track on the first turn, very wide on the last turn, and crushed the field with giant strides under a hand ride with the field stretched out behind him. That was a wow type of performance, go watch it again, you have to be really talented to win like that.

[Thebigguy]

He beat Candy Boy by 4 on his debut. He has talent - just has head issues.


How is that at all relevant at this point? Candy Boy has done nothing but mature and move forward since that maiden race. Tap It Rich is a head case who has done nothing but regress.

[Thebigguy]

Oct 12th, he was off 5 slow, was in the middle of the track on the first turn, very wide on the last turn, and crushed the field with giant strides under a hand ride with the field stretched out behind him. That was a wow type of performance, go watch it again, you have to be really talented to win like that.


Yup it was OK. But since he has done nothing but regress. He is a total head case. Anyone who is a Tap It Rich fan has to be concerned with Bayern being in the race. He is a much more likely winner on Thursday as he should control the race on the front end. I guess Baffert would be thrilled if the horse breaks OK and puts in a solid run and finishes 2nd. Then he could possibly get 2 more Stakes races into him before the Derby. We will see.

[Robert Fischer]

It's a little bit of a tricky race to bet.

I like Bayern, but I have some doubts about the horse, considering the conservative way he's been handled. It could simply be that Baffert was going with Midnight Hawk and Indianapolis as his 1st string, and that Bayern is every bit as good as he appeared. Could also be that he is simply not as good or has had minor issues. Should know a lot more after this race.

Tap It Rich could well win outright, or be second best, or he could act up and finish off the board. He's clearly a talented horse with severe issues.

Tough race to bet with so many unknowns.
I haven't thought about it a ton, but betting Bayern to place seems somewhat logical.

[Thebigguy]

It's a little bit of a tricky race to bet.

I like Bayern, but I have some doubts about the horse, considering the conservative way he's been handled. It could simply be that Baffert was going with Midnight Hawk and Indianapolis as his 1st string, and that Bayern is every bit as good as he appeared. Could also be that he is simply not as good or has had minor issues. Should know a lot more after this race.

Tap It Rich could well win outright, or be second best, or he could act up and finish off the board. He's clearly a talented horse with severe issues.

Tough race to bet with so many unknowns.
I haven't thought about it a ton, but betting Bayern to place seems somewhat logical.

How is betting an 8-5 shot to place at all logical?

[FlyinLate]

How is that at all relevant at this point? Candy Boy has done nothing but mature and move forward since that maiden race. Tap It Rich is a head case who has done nothing but regress.

He answered the question of why everyone thinks he has potential. Beating the eventual Robert b Lewis winner and cash call runner up is EXACTLY on point of why one might think he has potential.

[Thebigguy]

He answered the question of why everyone thinks he has potential. Beating the eventual Robert b Lewis winner and cash call runner up is EXACTLY on point of why one might think he has potential.

I guess the two disasters after that maiden win mean nothing.

[menifee]

I guess the two disasters after that maiden win mean nothing.

Cash Call Futurity was a disaster. I concede that.

The Breeders Cup - it was his first race against winners! A big class leap. He was an absolute mess. He broke slow - he wanted to get out (like he did in training that week)- he ran 6 wide. Despite that he finished 5th and lost by less than 5 lengths. He traveled more than 57 feet than the winner. He also averaged a higher speed than the winner. See the attached.

http://www.americasbestracing.net/en/the-latest/blogs/2013/11/4/inside-the-trip-breeders-cup-data/

He is a head case, but demonstrated a tremendous amount of talent. If he can figure out the mental issues and improve off his two yr old form, he could be very dangerous.

[Robert Fischer]

How is betting an 8-5 shot to place at all logical?

When it's an overlay.


I'm leaning towards "pass" with this specific race.

Tap It Rich = Could run anywhere from a G1 effort to a DNF?

Bayern = Entered here instead of a Stakes race after impressive debut win?

[Thebigguy]

When it's an overlay.


I'm leaning towards "pass" with this specific race.

Tap It Rich = Could run anywhere from a G1 effort to a DNF?

Bayern = Entered here instead of a Stakes race after impressive debut win?

Overlay or no overlay betting an 8-5 shot to place is a horrible bet.

[FlyinLate]

I guess the two disasters after that maiden win mean nothing.

Hence the use of the term "potential"

[Rex Phinney]

I've learned this.

When they are 2YO or early 3YO, they are either moving forward or they are backing up. Never staying the same. If you see a flash of brilliance in a race three months ago fine, but you better be able to get over it really quick, because this time of year the talent pool is changing that fast. I saw what Tap it Rich did in the Juvy and the Cashcall, the time to hold on to what he did in a maiden race is long gone.

I'm also taking into account Baffert, who like I said I love as a trainer, but c'mon, he is a love em and leave em type. When a horse is good enough Baffert makes sure they win, no problems, but given a few hiccups I wouldn't call Bob a horse whisperer. Once a horse starts with bumps in the road, Bob will move on to the next one with plenty of "potential". Nothing wrong with that, it's a part of the gig. And a reason why he is successful.

[menifee]

I've learned this.

When they are 2YO or early 3YO, they are either moving forward or they are backing up. Never staying the same. If you see a flash of brilliance in a race three months ago fine, but you better be able to get over it really quick, because this time of year the talent pool is changing that fast. I saw what Tap it Rich did in the Juvy and the Cashcall, the time to hold on to what he did in a maiden race is long gone.

I'm also taking into account Baffert, who like I said I love as a trainer, but c'mon, he is a love em and leave em type. When a horse is good enough Baffert makes sure they win, no problems, but given a few hiccups I wouldn't call Bob a horse whisperer. Once a horse starts with bumps in the road, Bob will move on to the next one with plenty of "potential". Nothing wrong with that, it's a part of the gig. And a reason why he is successful.

He ran the best race in the juvenile - he was just a head case and ran farther than everyone else. I gave you a cite to the trakus information.

I don't disagree with your assessment of the Cash Call. We'll see tomorrow whether Baffert has figured him out. They are trying a new blinker according to DRF which purportedly will prevent him from wanting to get out. The horse has a lot of talent - I think he is much better than Bayern. Unfortunately, until he runs 2-3 races where he does not act like a head case, he's going to be very difficult to wager on.

[Rex Phinney]

He ran the best race in the juvenile

Why? Because Trakus said so?

I was at the Breeders Cup, and the way New Year's Day finished was top notch. Biding his time, handling traffic and finishing when he needed to, on dirt, against the best in his class. He ran the best race that day.

[Thebigguy]

Why? Because Trakus said so?

I was at the Breeders Cup, and the way New Year's Day finished was top notch. Biding his time, handling traffic and finishing when he needed to, on dirt, against the best in his class. He ran the best race that day.

Top notch? Do you guys watch the same race as everyone else?
The race was very fast early and collapsed late. The pace horses were best, I think thats very obvious.
Havana and Strong Mandate were best. NYD sucked up to win. And now he will never race again.

[Rex Phinney]

Top notch? Do you guys watch the same race as everyone else?
The race was very fast early and collapsed late. The pace horses were best, I think thats very obvious.
Havana and Strong Mandate were best. NYD sucked up to win. And now he will never race again.

Watch it over and over again, show me the other horses making up the ground? Noone passed anyone except NYD.

Havana? Give me a break, He didn't hit the top three until 6 furlongs had been run. He played very little in the initial pace. And NYD smoked him anyway.

Watch more races at Santa Anita, horses winning from the back is far more impressive than anything that happens from the lead there. If you are on the lead with anything less than a half mile to run at Santa Anita you are supposed to win.

All that being said, the Derby isn't won on the front, so why would anyone care that a horse held on to hit the board in an 8.5 furlong race in November? Speed horses win on the third Saturday in May, not the first.

[letswastemoney]

Watch it over and over again, show me the other horses making up the ground? Noone passed anyone except NYD.

Havana? Give me a break, He didn't hit the top three until 6 furlongs had been run. He played very little in the initial pace. And NYD smoked him anyway.

Watch more races at Santa Anita, horses winning from the back is far more impressive than anything that happens from the lead there. If you are on the lead with anything less than a half mile to run at Santa Anita you are supposed to win.

All that being said, the Derby isn't won on the front, so why would anyone care that a horse held on to hit the board in an 8.5 furlong race in November? Speed horses win on the third Saturday in May, not the first. Horses with tactical speed can win the Derby.

I'll Have Another, Super Saver, Big Brown, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem all raced in the upper half of the Derby field, some close to the lead. I'd rather take a horse that pressed fast fractions and got tired in prep races than a stone cold closer.

On paper, Mine That Bird was an early pace type that faded in his preps. Even Giacomo showed some speed in the Sham.

[Track Phantom]

Bayern = Entered here instead of a Stakes race after impressive debut win?

I wouldn't be worried about this. Baffert has a long history of putting viable Derby contenders in Allowance races when they would seemingly fit nicely into stakes company. I think the combination of passing the stakes, entering allowance coming off a maiden win where he pressed a fast pace and blinkers off, tell me Baffert is working to get him to relax and is using this spot to do so.

Here are some Baffert examples:

http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/PointDeterminedandBobandJohn_zps20d870c0.jpg

http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/CongareeandIndianCharlie_zpsb6004c58.jpg

[sammy the sage]

I wouldn't be worried about this. Baffert has a long history of putting viable Derby contenders in Allowance races when they would seemingly fit nicely into stakes company. I think the combination of passing the stakes, entering allowance coming off a maiden win where he pressed a fast pace and blinkers off, tell me Baffert is working to get him to relax and is using this spot to do so.

Here are some Baffert examples:

http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/PointDeterminedandBobandJohn_zps20d870c0.jpg

http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/CongareeandIndianCharlie_zpsb6004c58.jpg

Good post/find...does anybody really wanna wager on a TEACHING lesson???
seriously...unless you have INSIDE knowledge on how the horse is taking to relaxing you'd be foolish to wager..

[Dark Horse]

Two speeds in the race, the 1 and 3. Stevens and Maldonado in the irons. If Stevens can help Bayern avoid a speed duel, he gets the nod over Tap it Rich.

[Robert Fischer]

Good point.


I wouldn't be worried about this. Baffert has a long history of putting viable Derby contenders in Allowance races when they would seemingly fit nicely into stakes company. I think the combination of passing the stakes, entering allowance coming off a maiden win where he pressed a fast pace and blinkers off, tell me Baffert is working to get him to relax and is using this spot to do so.

Here are some Baffert examples:

http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/PointDeterminedandBobandJohn_zps20d870c0.jpg

http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/CongareeandIndianCharlie_zpsb6004c58.jpg

[Investorater]

Bayern to finish in the money!!!!!

[Robert Fischer]

the pick 3
and early money on Bayern.

[Stillriledup]

I think tap it rich is a better horse, but smith has been riding with his head you know where, can he really be counted on to ride smart with this type of horse?

I guess im just going to let price be my guide....and, see if TIR looks "calm" in the warmup.

[Stillriledup]

bayern blinkers off......interesting they would make a switch off a win.

[MutuelClerk]

If Tap It Rich wins I'm live to four horses in the P4.

[Thebigguy]

I think tap it rich is a better horse, but smith has been riding with his head you know where, can he really be counted on to ride smart with this type of horse?

I guess im just going to let price be my guide....and, see if TIR looks "calm" in the warmup.

Tap It Rich is a total disaster.

[Robert Fischer]

The gallop out was a little bit better today. Will have to see how he stretches out.

[menifee]

Still a head case. Don't think he would have beaten Bayern even if he ran his best.

[Robert Fischer]

Stevens has Bayern and Candy Boy.

[tanner12oz]

That's a pretty damn good horse...

[tanner12oz]

Tap It Rich is a total disaster.

was better behaved then last out...i would guess he is off the trail at this point.

[Thebigguy]

Stevens has Bayern and Candy Boy.

If the decision ever has to be made, its Bayern.

[maclr11]

I think Tap it Rich is a great candidate for the Affirmed and Swaps in June. Time enough to figure him out more. He has all the talent in the world, and he is improving.

[Stillriledup]

Tap It Rich is a total disaster.

So is the jock. horse raced well, the jock stayed far out of the leader's way being that they were from the same barn. Give me a longer race and a deeper track, i'll be betting against Bayern until he loses or i run out of money, whichever comes first.

[Stillriledup]

If the decision ever has to be made, its Bayern.

Give me the other horse at a mile and a quarter on the Churchill Surface. ;)

[horses4courses]

Give me the other horse at a mile and a quarter on the Churchill Surface. ;)

Tap It Rich?
On Derby Day?
With the noise from tens of thousands packed into Churchill Downs?

I think not - added to the fact that he is a long shot to get his act together to even get close to earning enough points to get him there.

There are dozens of better candidates than Tap It Rich. :ThmbDown:

Maybe you meant Steven's other choice - Sadler's Candy Boy.
He's a nice horse, too, so it will be interesting to see where the jockeys land.

[Smarty Cide]

anywhere i can see the replay? my twitter time line just blew up with Bayern comments... someone said he just had a big brown breakout


i need to see it

[tanner12oz]

Give me a longer race and a deeper track, i'll be betting against Bayern until he loses or i run out of money, whichever comes first.

today it would have taken about 3 miles on quicksand

[tanner12oz]

What's next on the menu to try to figure him out? I would say options are beginning to thin out at this point...and ultimate equipment change more then likely off the menu

[Mystic]

anywhere i can see the replay? my twitter time line just blew up with Bayern comments... someone said he just had a big brown breakout


i need to see it

Twinspires has the replay up.

[menifee]

They need to make the ultimate equipment change. Even if he had his act together, he still would have been beaten today.

[Investorater]

\O/ Bayern \O/

[Bullet Plane]

They need to make the ultimate equipment change. Even if he had his act together, he still would have been beaten today.


Agreed!

They put every piece of equipment known to modern man on this animal and he still couldn't run straight.

I believe the ultimate equipment change is in order!

Let's just hope they have the "balls" to do it!

[Stillriledup]

Tap It Rich?
On Derby Day?
With the noise from tens of thousands packed into Churchill Downs?

I think not - added to the fact that he is a long shot to get his act together to even get close to earning enough points to get him there.

There are dozens of better candidates than Tap It Rich. :ThmbDown:

Maybe you meant Steven's other choice - Sadler's Candy Boy.
He's a nice horse, too, so it will be interesting to see where the jockeys land.

No, i was responding to Big Guy's assertion that the jock on the winner has a "no brainer" decision as to which good horse to ride going forward.

You're right about Tap it Rich, he's not going to handle Derby day crowds very well, they need to race him somewhere that fans don't show up. :D

[horses4courses]

they need to race him somewhere that fans don't show up. :D

Yeah....unfortunately, that can be arranged fairly easily ;)

[tanner12oz]

:lol: Yeah....unfortunately, that can be arranged fairly easily ;)

[Rex Phinney]

Bayern is the new Midnight Hawk.

Tap it Rich is exactly who I said he was.

And Gary Stevens would be crazy to come off Candy Boy.

Gonna be interesting to see where they put Bayern next, will he run again or will they just wait for the SA Derby.

Looks to be about the time of year when Baffert has to fan out the herd, better start picking and choosing which horses are going to Arkansas, Sunland etc.

[classhandicapper]

I was a little surprised it was such a blow out. They had supposedly worked evenly in their last work together (both impressively). I thought the result was going to be more about race development (and behavior) than any actual difference in ability.

[Track Phantom]

I think people need to bring it down a notch on his performance. It was a great performance and should be applauded but the field was dirt weak besides the potentially talented Tap It Rich.

Tap It Rich broke awkwardly and was rank for a big part of the early running, still trying to get out and didn't settle down until he was on the backstretch.

3rd choice, Brother Soldier, the likely speed of the race, broke 4 lengths slow and was rushed up to try and get the lead.

When those two things happened, race was already over. Bayern, being a very nice horse, was able to open up at will.

Great performance but it needs to be put into perspective.

[Robert Fischer]

I wonder how Tap It Rich would fare at 7f?

That is a pretty long run to the turn.

Would seem that he could go to the lead, and handle the 1 turn a lot better than a 2 turn route where he has to make the first turn soon out of the gate.

That first turn seems to wipe him out.


I know that isn't exactly correcting his problems, but being a top 3yo 1-turn sprinter is probably better than whatever it is he is now.

[letswastemoney]

I wonder how Tap It Rich would fare at 7f?

That is a pretty long run to the turn.

Would seem that he could go to the lead, and handle the 1 turn a lot better than a 2 turn route where he has to make the first turn soon out of the gate.

That first turn seems to wipe him out.


I know that isn't exactly correcting his problems, but being a top 3yo 1-turn sprinter is probably better than whatever it is he is now.Maybe Tap It Rich would be a monster at Belmont Park then, with their one turn routes.

[Stillriledup]

I wonder how Tap It Rich would fare at 7f?

That is a pretty long run to the turn.

Would seem that he could go to the lead, and handle the 1 turn a lot better than a 2 turn route where he has to make the first turn soon out of the gate.

That first turn seems to wipe him out.


I know that isn't exactly correcting his problems, but being a top 3yo 1-turn sprinter is probably better than whatever it is he is now.

He needs a jock change.

Badly.

[Robert Fischer]

Maybe Tap It Rich would be a monster at Belmont Park then, with their one turn routes.

Yea Belmont would be perfect.

Get him a 7f allowance prep at SA,
and then ship him out for Belmont Stakes day to run in the Met Mile.